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  1. #901
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Typical Miguel post. The Mayans? Easter Island? Jesus.

    Why don't you just tell me what resource- that we are dependent upon- that is going away with no available replacement.

    And no, a shortage of Helium is not going to kill economic growth. Funny thing about natural resources- when you look for them you tend to find them. A huge helium reserve was recently discovered in Tanzania. We have several hundred years worth lying around, we just don't collect it.

    It can be recovered from natural gas wells. We already do that where the helium fraction is high, and the cost of recovery is going down. Wells where we are currently letting it gas off can be equipped to capture the helium instead of discarding it. And it doesn't mean extracting more CH4, it just means better utilization of plays we are already exploiting.

    It can be recycled in medical use- the technology for re-liquification and recycling is advancing rapidly, with small electric chillers that make it cheaper to recycle than to let it gas off.

    It can be produced from liquifying natural gas. There is no shortage of feedstock.

    "The Great Helium Shortage" is mostly hype.
    Phoenix?
    The Colorado?


    I get it.
    Just because it hasnt happened to you means it doesn’t exist.
    The Oglala aquifer?
    The Colorado?

    You suffer from a blind spot usually associated with liberals, that technology will fix everything.

    As noted, we are still cleaning up from the shortsighted paradigm you use.

    Like the broken window fallacy, it’s a waste, not a zero sum or positive.
    Economically and socially.

    Part of the driving force for immigration from the Middle East and North Africa is drought, something that’s becoming more common as the climate warms.
    The costs and dislocations associated with extreme weather events alone are something that needs to be noted.


    Yeah, ok.
    I get it.
    You live on a three month timeline, looking for the next bonus check.
    Assuming that you’ll just move on to the next ceo spot that opens up...and fuck the employees.

  2. #902
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post

    This is another one of your bullshit conflations. I said I prefer to focus on actual problems that we have today, rather than predicted disasters in some indeterminate future.

    It's called prioritizing.
    Myopia.
    What would you consider a more pressing problem than impending dry cities?


    Your comment about helium is a perfect exemplar.
    Helium is hype...we have 200 years.
    Well...only if we maintain current usage levels, but now you’ve made an excuse for just using it with out paying attention to the fact it’s a finite resource.

    Yep...
    Your idea of a proximate problem is your bonus at the end of the quarter.
    Your idea of something not worrying about is what happens after you cash your check.
    What ever happened to the idea that conservatives considered themselves stewards.

  3. #903
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    ...

    <snip>

    Your idea of a proximate problem is your bonus at the end of the quarter.
    Your idea of something not worrying about is what happens after you cash your check.
    .
    I'm not going to waste my time responding to your little diatribes. You can't win an argument on the merits, so you go for ad hom attacks.

    What a dumbass. You think you know all about me, and you don't know jack. I don't get paychecks and bonuses. I run my own company. And btw, it's a real shop- not a clapped out K&T in my basement.

    This is about a third of it. What you can't see is the lathe area, the fab area, the saw area, the material racks, the tooling loft, the office, and the extra bay for storage. Yeah, it ain't fancy but I worked for every bit of it and it's mine.

    front-shop.jpg

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  5. #904
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    . . . Have we ever become dependent on a resource, and then lost that resource and had nothing to replace it?

    I can't think of an example. . .
    There are half a dozen examples in Jared Diamond's book "Collapse." He's an easy read and its sort of a theme with him, starting the "Guns, Germs, and Steel." Steel, I suppose, bringing us back to machining.

    https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Soci.../dp/0143117009

    This one is short, but more of a slog. What's interesting (to me) is the author's notion that the sort of complexity that makes a civilization thrive, also makes it vulnerable:

    https://www.amazon.com/dp/052138673X/ref=rdr_ext_tmb

    It's been said and variously attributed a few times that the best way to predict the future is to invent it. I'm curious what things the collective wit and wisdom here might want to see if inventing that future were up to them. For starters, I'd think we'd want to keep (more like restore) free and transparent markets for goods and services; though that doesn't seem to be the trend in many of our largest industries.

    Good looking shop, BTW. One of the great things about being a small business owner is that if there are complaints about capital, management, labor, work hours, or whatever -- all it takes is a hard look in the mirror to sort them out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    I'm not going to waste my time responding to your little diatribes. You can't win an argument on the merits, so you go for ad hom attacks.

    What a dumbass. You think you know all about me, and you don't know jack. I don't get paychecks and bonuses. I run my own company. And btw, it's a real shop- not a clapped out K&T in my basement.

    This is about a third of it. What you can't see is the lathe area, the fab area, the saw area, the material racks, the tooling loft, the office, and the extra bay for storage. Yeah, it ain't fancy but I worked for every bit of it and it's mine.

    front-shop.jpg
    Which is meaningless chest thumping.
    Fact is, you have a myopic self centered approach to the world.
    If it isn’t a proximate threat to you personally the threat doesn’t exist.

  7. #906
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    There are half a dozen examples in Jared Diamond's book "Collapse." He's an easy read and its sort of a theme with him, starting the "Guns, Germs, and Steel." Steel, I suppose, bringing us back to machining.

    https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Soci.../dp/0143117009

    This one is short, but more of a slog. What's interesting (to me) is the author's notion that the sort of complexity that makes a civilization thrive, also makes it vulnerable:

    https://www.amazon.com/dp/052138673X/ref=rdr_ext_tmb
    I did not read Guns, Germs and Steel, but I watched the PBS series. I thought it was pretty good, but kind of narrow focused. My impression was that he attributed European success to environmental factors at the exclusion of all else. I guess it just seemed too simplistic for me- I don't know. There was an underlying element of the "white privilege" narrative in there- subtle, but the suggestion was that Europeans and their descendants didn't earn their success, they just got lucky.

    I think I have "race fatigue". Sick of hearing everything in the context of race. There's more to people than their skin color.

    I'll take your word for it, I don't think I am up for a "Collapse of Civilization" story, lol.

    I got a book for you too. Chaos by James Gleick.

    https://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Making-...s%2C294&sr=1-1

    You are a pretty analytical guy- I was a science geek all the way in school, I literally took everything that was offered. I once mentioned that my entire worldview was rooted in the Standard Model, and it is. But it's an incomplete picture- I never really understood that until I read this book.

    I haven't look at the world the same way since. My perspective went from a "hard science can provide all the explanations" kind of view, to a "how the hell can you expect science to answer that?" view. It showed me that the Standard Model is not a true picture of the universe- it's a dumbed-down version, reduced to a scale humans can comprehend.

    For a smart guy like you, this is my number one pick. If I could force you to read any book, it would be this one.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    It's been said and variously attributed a few times that the best way to predict the future is to invent it. I'm curious what things the collective wit and wisdom here might want to see if inventing that future were up to them. For starters, I'd think we'd want to keep (more like restore) free and transparent markets for goods and services; though that doesn't seem to be the trend in many of our largest industries.
    Shit, man. I'd be happy with the flying car I was promised as a kid.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Good looking shop, BTW. One of the great things about being a small business owner is that if there are complaints about capital, management, labor, work hours, or whatever -- all it takes is a hard look in the mirror to sort them out.
    Got that right! This isn't my first rodeo, so I have it pretty well under control but it can be a chore. Wouldn't have it any other way though.

  8. #907
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    . . . I got a book for you too. Chaos by James Gleick. . . .
    I enjoyed that one as well, read it near a decade ago. You could add Taleb's "Black Swan" to the litany of reasons why predictions and plans so often go wrong.

    That said, our choices make various outcomes, whether it's prosperity, inequality, or various global "Darwin Awards" more or less likely. Personally, I used to think we'd keep learning more (though with infinitely more to learn) that things would more or less (with ups and downs) keep getting better. Now, I think we're making enough bad decisions (politically, economically, culturally) to put us at an inflection point. Maybe things get better. Maybe we create the equivalent of a new Dark Ages. Both are possibilities.

    It helps, at least for me, to understand what sort of future we might aim for, to make slightly better decisions in the present. Personally, I don't think the future we should be aiming for includes things like massive investments in coal, trashing allegiances, litanies of lies and deception, scapegoating, or trying to seal off our economy and culture from the world. Problem is, hazy ideas about a green new deal, countries without borders, or robots paying our taxes aren't an answer either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    I did not read Guns, Germs and Steel, but I watched the PBS series. I thought it was pretty good, but kind of narrow focused. My impression was that he attributed European success to environmental factors at the exclusion of all else. I guess it just seemed too simplistic for me- I don't know. There was an underlying element of the "white privilege" narrative in there- subtle, but the suggestion was that Europeans and their descendants didn't earn their success, they just got lucky.

    I think I have "race fatigue". Sick of hearing everything in the context of race. There's more to people than their skin color.

    I'll take your word for it, I don't think I am up for a "Collapse of Civilization" story, lol.

    I got a book for you too. Chaos by James Gleick.

    https://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Making-...s%2C294&sr=1-1

    You are a pretty analytical guy- I was a science geek all the way in school, I literally took everything that was offered. I once mentioned that my entire worldview was rooted in the Standard Model, and it is. But it's an incomplete picture- I never really understood that until I read this book.

    I haven't look at the world the same way since. My perspective went from a "hard science can provide all the explanations" kind of view, to a "how the hell can you expect science to answer that?" view. It showed me that the Standard Model is not a true picture of the universe- it's a dumbed-down version, reduced to a scale humans can comprehend.

    For a smart guy like you, this is my number one pick. If I could force you to read any book, it would be this one.

    Shit, man. I'd be happy with the flying car I was promised as a kid.

    Got that right! This isn't my first rodeo, so I have it pretty well under control but it can be a chore. Wouldn't have it any other way though.
    There’s an excellent series called “connections” which traces the development of technology.
    It’s a bit dated but still a good watch and the philosophy is worth seeing.
    Episode 1
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=91XWKv5UuCM

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    I enjoyed that one as well, read it near a decade ago. You could add Taleb's "Black Swan" to the litany of reasons why predictions and plans so often go wrong.

    That said, our choices make various outcomes, whether it's prosperity, inequality, or various global "Darwin Awards" more or less likely. Personally, I used to think we'd keep learning more (though with infinitely more to learn) that things would more or less (with ups and downs) keep getting better. Now, I think we're making enough bad decisions (politically, economically, culturally) to put us at an inflection point. Maybe things get better. Maybe we create the equivalent of a new Dark Ages. Both are possibilities.

    It helps, at least for me, to understand what sort of future we might aim for, to make slightly better decisions in the present. Personally, I don't think the future we should be aiming for includes things like massive investments in coal, trashing allegiances, litanies of lies and deception, scapegoating, or trying to seal off our economy and culture from the world. Problem is, hazy ideas about a green new deal, countries without borders, or robots paying our taxes aren't an answer either.
    Remember that predictions are only ever noticed when they fail.


    As for your last paragraph...read the pdf.
    The Authoritarians

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    I enjoyed that one as well, read it near a decade ago. You could add Taleb's "Black Swan" to the litany of reasons why predictions and plans so often go wrong.
    And economic models, and climate models, and tomorrow's weather forecast, and that part on my lathe...

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    That said, our choices make various outcomes, whether it's prosperity, inequality, or various global "Darwin Awards" more or less likely. Personally, I used to think we'd keep learning more (though with infinitely more to learn) that things would more or less (with ups and downs) keep getting better. Now, I think we're making enough bad decisions (politically, economically, culturally) to put us at an inflection point. Maybe things get better. Maybe we create the equivalent of a new Dark Ages. Both are possibilities.
    See Pete? So gloomy!

    Well, that glass looks less than half-full, anyway. We're going through a little rough patch right now, it's been worse.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    It helps, at least for me, to understand what sort of future we might aim for, to make slightly better decisions in the present. Personally, I don't think the future we should be aiming for includes things like massive investments in coal, trashing allegiances, litanies of lies and deception, scapegoating, or trying to seal off our economy and culture from the world. Problem is, hazy ideas about a green new deal, countries without borders, or robots paying our taxes aren't an answer either.
    Well, I could go for one of those robots that paid my taxes...

    I have trouble making other people do things. I hope to do the right things for myself, the people around me, the community. Try to help out. As my mom would say- "Be nice!".

    And even thought the average guy thinks he's above average intelligence, I still believe the collective intelligence of the people will make the right decisions at least 51% of the time.

    But I'm an optimist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    And economic models, and climate models, and tomorrow's weather forecast, and that part on my lathe...

    See Pete? So gloomy!

    Well, that glass looks less than half-full, anyway. We're going through a little rough patch right now, it's been worse.

    Well, I could go for one of those robots that paid my taxes...

    I have trouble making other people do things. I hope to do the right things for myself, the people around me, the community. Try to help out. As my mom would say- "Be nice!".

    And even thought the average guy thinks he's above average intelligence, I still believe the collective intelligence of the people will make the right decisions at least 51% of the time.

    But I'm an optimist.
    Funny thing, models and predictions put us on the moon. Increase efficiency of everything from medicine to jet engines. Hurricane forecasts are hugely more accurate as are local weather.
    They are used to make billions every day across the globe.
    They guide drilling rigs, make cars suspensions adapt, and make gps work.
    Tool wear predictions.

    Yet some how when they fail that means that every one that says something you don’t want to hear they are worthless.

    Miss an economic target by a percentage point and they can be completely ignored...because you don’t like what they indicate.

  14. #912
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    I'm not going to waste my time responding to your little diatribes. You can't win an argument on the merits, so you go for ad hom attacks.

    What a dumbass. You think you know all about me, and you don't know jack. I don't get paychecks and bonuses. I run my own company. And btw, it's a real shop- not a clapped out K&T in my basement.

    This is about a third of it. What you can't see is the lathe area, the fab area, the saw area, the material racks, the tooling loft, the office, and the extra bay for storage. Yeah, it ain't fancy but I worked for every bit of it and it's mine.

    front-shop.jpg
    Jan nice shop. I am all ways glad to see a shop that uses manual machines as they are still workhorses.

  15. #913
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    The comment about endless 3% growth being impossible is completely correct.

    The US, and europe, have already run out of multiple items, many times, in the past century.

    Mostly the US got rich due to resource extraction industries for the last 100 years.
    In order, +/-, timber, tar, hemp, steel (railways, later autos), oil, coal.

    As long as we continue to extract resources, and burn them (destructive use), at some point we run out of *cheap* ways to extract them.
    This time is actually quite short by lifetime comparisons, even for steel, coal, iron ore, and oil (=plastics, cheap).

    Most iron/steel/alu/lead is recycled globally.
    This means we will have abundant cheap resources for more than a century.

    Rather like "peak oil", we will run into "peak resources" fairly quick.

    About 10-30 years, depending on what and how you measure, and how fast china and india grow their economies and consumption (perhaps africa, but less likely to be a big effect in 40 years or less).

    It is not a Q. of "running out" but of stuff costing more than it is worth vs the stock market and debts of companies, leading to stranded assets.
    The recent US shale oil companies BKs due to debt/costs are a good example.

    When companies "grow" at 3% y/y exponential, net, 3%+inflation, while digging up stuff that is ever deeper/harder/more expensive to get, You run out of "stuff/costs" fairly quick.

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    What became of the short sellers that 8 weeks ago were touting the demise of our economy? I know where they are, they are going to cover their shorts next week... along with many of the fools that did today.

    If you want to play with fire ... you came to the right place.

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    The short sellers haven't given up, but they are very quiet of their wounds.

    MORE PAIN COMING

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    You could add Taleb's "Black Swan" to the litany of reasons why predictions and plans so often go wrong.
    It was a good read but several of his examples were obvious. Which should make them not "black swans" ...

    @janc - you need to replace that Lagun with a 2B Devlieg. And you could use a Bostomatic. Mmmm

    Otherwise, perfect !

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    Where all all the tariff people out there? Where all all the short sellers?

    The likelihood of a powerful upward rally is in place.

    30,000 DOW, in 3 weeks.


    STEW ON IT

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    . . . The likelihood of a powerful upward rally is in place.

    30,000 DOW, in 3 weeks. . .
    ?????????????

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Where all all the tariff people out there? Where all all the short sellers?

    The likelihood of a powerful upward rally is in place.

    30,000 DOW, in 3 weeks.


    STEW ON IT
    Public bet - in three weeks (May 29th, 2019) the DOW will *not* be over 30,000. $5 (last of the big spenders) You up for it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    It'll go up if the fool cancels his trade war with China. It'll go up more if he cancels his insane crusade against Iran
    Hello Mark,
    A trade war with China, a military incident with Iran. This is "jet fuel" for a market rally.


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