25% Tarifs effective March 26/2018 - Page 48
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  1. #941
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    The trade deal looks like a bust. If China doesn't want to play ball fairly, that's ok. This administration is fully content on playing Russian Roulette, with more than 2 rounds in the chamber.

    In other words, the US never wanted a trade deal,

    and neither do I.

  2. #942
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    As PeteM said in post #939, with about 10 cogent well-articulated correct points..

    at the moment the US is "eating the seed corn" for
    - short-term gains in the stock market,
    - company profits (=> elevated stock prices) via low/no taxation of mega-corps,
    - no/low investments in national infrastructure in national education, health, roads, it infra etc,
    - resource extraction in fracking for pennies on the dollar,
    - artificial economic boosts via excessive deficit spending on defense industries.

    All the above means that the US is "doing well" by running up a huge increase in the national debt, over 1T$ debt increase for the corporate tax cuts in 2018 alone.
    + 1T$+ costs, probably, defense-related,
    + 1T$+ costs, trade-wars related.

    A nation or a big utility can "run the tank dry", by simply not upgrading and maintaining the infra it is supposed to exist for,
    like an electric utility not focusing on the grid and power and instead focusing on venture capital // stock market stuff.

    Same for water, waste, transport, metro-area local trains/gas/power/tunnels/etc, it, power or electric grid.
    Or education, for a nation.

    In the short and medium term this boosts "profits" by not investing in the needed long-term fundamentals.
    In the long term this is very bad as the fixes later are much more costly when done late, on an emergency basis.

    This is why e.g. muni bonds are a terrible idea, since/when they are often mostly used for deficit spending.
    They are essentially raising the deficit costs by a power of 1.06 pwr n (year of bond), typically causing 300% higher costs down the line.
    A 6% effective-rate bond, 30 years, might cost about 300% lifetime.

  3. #943
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    Good point, Hanermo, on the muni bonds.

  4. #944
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    My experience on tariffs and material pricing ...

    Pre-tariffs I was paying ~$2.25/# for domestic (Kaiser and Hydro) 6061, and was getting ~$0.25 for chips
    Post-tariffs (and I mean within a week of the tariffs being announced) I was paying ~$2.75/# for domestic 6061, and dropped down to $0.17 for chips. This is where I am at today. $2.75 on the front end and $0.17 on the back end.

    So my material cost went up ~20%, and simultaneously my recycle return went down ~25%.

    All this is for domestic product on both ends. My chips will go to a Hydro or Kaiser remelt mill.

    How the h__l can I pay more for 6061, and then get less for 6061 chips, and for domestic product that doesn't have tariffs applied? I believe this is just plain and simple opportunism on the part of the mills. A shop down the street that I do some business with, and who orders 20x the 6061 I do so has much better bargaining power, is seeing (AFAICT) about 10% higher 6061 cost. Don't know about his chips.

    Regards.

    Mike

  5. #945
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    Our Brass chips have gone down to 50% of what is was 5 years ago

  6. #946
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    Quote Originally Posted by Finegrain View Post
    My experience on tariffs and material pricing ...
    ......
    Mike
    Scrap or chip prices be it steel, iron, al or tungsten carbide got way over inflated due to demand overseas and that train has left the station.
    Your base material price is supporting USA jobs like the washing machines above.
    Think of it as a investment in your country and fellow workers.
    The USA is in a tough spot and we need you to ante up a tad.... You are certainly free to move elsewhere and both Nam and India are profit making spots at the moment.
    China no longer so much, Brazil and that area has been run out of steam.
    Africa...rich in so much but the politics and crazy rule.

    We live in a sort of bubble in the US due to the history.
    Now others are knocking at the door yet since so long as king of the hill we don't see or try to understated the "barbarians at the gate".

    The current methods will fail and go away. They will take a toll on many and provide big money for others.
    Being trapped as a fabricator in this is not pleasant so make no mistake that I emphasize and pray for all in this fray.
    But it is what it is and no matter of being upset will change it.
    The rules change, the game plays and one does what you can.
    Shop owners sort of do the "Adapt, improvise, overcome" and there is no crying allowed when the rules or game changes.
    Bob

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  8. #947
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    Today we will see at midnight in the US if a escalation in trade tariffs occur.
    Well, we saw. And this is why I think Mr Trump is an idiot.

    Even Goldman-Sachs recognizes that it's the US public who is paying the toll on this. It's not costing China shit because there is no other supplier for most stuff. And the CEO's of companies that are happy skimming 50% off the top just by dragging numbers from one spreadsheet cell to another are not going to make any changes. You want a lamp or a set of faucets or a sweater, what are you going to do ? Go to your local shop and have them build one ? ha ha.

    Obviously the tariff thing is a stupid way to go about this. Also it is not working and the US taxpayer is coughing up billions of dollars to pay off the soybean farmers. Other US companies are just taking it in the shorts, like the lobster guys in Maine and Apple and Boeing. And me, but who gives a crap about machinery sales ?

    So instead of just backing up and trying a different tactic when this one doesn't work, the head dipshit doubles down.

    This ought to get real interesting.

  9. #948
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    Some people just want to watch the world burn...

  10. #949
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    Well no one has done anything useful so far to address the trade issues with China. ( current effort aside) Thing is it must be acknowledged that there are interests from Americans supporting the course we are on. This standoff will likely not lead to more competition to China moving the mentioned industries to countries who would do the work for even less than China.

    No need to stop now as it has and will cost us yet it is long overdue that something be done.
    wait, so continue on an ignorant, blind rage based course of action, because something must be done?

    really?

    How about a well thought out strategy that doesn't crush our industry and farm economies?

    I have ranted for years about China's trade policies

    How about revoking most favored nation trade status?

    Or going before the international tariff boards?

    Or just about anything other than being stupid?

    And trying to start a war with Iran to distract from it


    YEs, how about just about any other course of action

  11. #950
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    Trump puts tariffs on China. They retaliate by cutting purchases of farm products. Farmers start hurting so trump gives them welfare. But how does a country that is flat broke and pays for everything by borrowing money from China pay for welfare for farmers? By borrowing even more money from the China, of course.

    I've tried to make sense of this but just can't.

  12. #951
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    I think it would be positive to have a fair trade arrangement.
    But this idiot has no idea how Chinese protectionism is done, he hasn't touched any of the mechanisms of mercantilism, China doesn't need ANYTHING from the US, it's all available elsewhere.

    Conversely, Walmart for one will have nothing on the shelves if they don't buy from China. They are not the only ones. Try to do without a Made in China sticker.

    You guys put all your eggs into one basket, now you want to throw the basket out the window.

    Tariffs are in place. See what happens.
    What's going to happen is that China goes elsewhere for imports and doesn't come back. People that have spent years building up a business can piss on it now, it's dead. "Other low-cost countries" cannot do what China does because they have no self-control (e.g. Africa, ha ha) and no money and no resources and no infrastructure. It took thirty years for China to get where she is, and she had good planning and intelligent leaders and 1.2 billion people. You think Zimbabwe is going to do that in a week ? Or ever, for that matter ? India has been trying the same thing for the past thirty years and has gone nowhere.

    Trump HAS NO PLAN. It's not as if he really wanted to revitalize US manufacturing. There's nothing behind this shit. Not a single idea for accomplishing anything. "Protect imaginary property !" Go fuck yourself.

    He's just throwing a temper tantrum. China does not need the US. They have Europe, the rest of the Americas, Africa, Australia, the rest of Asia, and 1.2 billion of their own citizens to sell to.

    Who will "win" when they tell the US to go fuck itself ?

    btw, the briliant strategists in Worshington were convinced that Chinese companies would drop their prices to counteract the illegal (the president DOES NOT HAVE THE POWER to enact these tariffs. Light bulbs are not a national security emergency WHAT THE FUCK IS CONGRESS DOING ?) tariffs. They have not. That should tell people something. China is going to use this chance to demonstrate that tariff wars do not end well for ignorant, stupid, aggressive imbeciles.

    Also consider the fact that China has demonstrated that it can take temporary pain for a long term goal, while the US needs instant gratification and quarterly "improvements" to survive. The US no longer knows what a long term goal is.

    This is not going to turn out well. The man is an idiot.

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    1. I agree.
    It would decimate US sugar producers, and meat producers, if a fair trade agreement was implemented.

    2.
    I agree.
    We see what is happening.
    China trade grows 30-35% ex-usa, 2018.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    1.
    I think it would be positive to have a fair trade arrangement.

    2.
    Tariffs are in place. See what happens.

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    Make America Great Again!

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    People act like foreign countries don't put tariffs on USA goods.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    People act like foreign countries don't put tariffs on USA goods.
    And usually at a much higher rate than then US puts on them.

    For all Hanermo's fortune telling doom-and-gloom- the US is growing at twice the rate of the EU, has half the unemployment and has added a half million manufacturing jobs under Trump.

    As of today, my order book is completely full through Mid-August. If this is "losing", I'm good with it.

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  19. #956
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    And usually at a much higher rate than then US puts on them.

    For all Hanermo's fortune telling doom-and-gloom- the US is growing at twice the rate of the EU, has half the unemployment and has added a half million manufacturing jobs under Trump.

    As of today, my order book is completely full through Mid-August. If this is "losing", I'm good with it.
    Your Absolutely right jancollc,
    I couldn't have said it any better. To all of the doomers out there; the manufacturing sector hasn't looked this good since 1969.

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  21. #957
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    And usually at a much higher rate than then US puts on them.

    For all Hanermo's fortune telling doom-and-gloom- the US is growing at twice the rate of the EU, has half the unemployment and has added a half million manufacturing jobs under Trump.

    As of today, my order book is completely full through Mid-August. If this is "losing", I'm good with it.
    actually most countries have quite low tariffs, if any, on US goods. A few wacky, tiny countries, like Benin or Grenada, have the highest tariffs- still, usually, half of Trump's new tariffs.
    The EU tariffs on US goods average under 2%
    Singapore, Iceland, Switzerland, have zero or less than 1%.

    Which countries have the highest tariffs?

    pre trump, our tariffs averaged about 1.5%, and most of our exports were taxed in a similar range- Japan, at 1.35% for example.
    U.S. tariffs are among lowest in world – and in nation's history | Pew Research Center
    Even "HIGH" tariffs on US exports were maybe 5%. Compared to our current 25%, which you are not going to find "much higher rates", cause they are almost all much much lower.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big B View Post
    Trump puts tariffs on China. They retaliate by cutting purchases of farm products. Farmers start hurting so trump gives them welfare. But how does a country that is flat broke and pays for everything by borrowing money from China pay for welfare for farmers? By borrowing even more money from the China, of course.

    I've tried to make sense of this but just can't.
    This is a good question to ask your congressmen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    actually most countries have quite low tariffs, if any, on US goods. A few wacky, tiny countries, like Benin or Grenada, have the highest tariffs- still, usually, half of Trump's new tariffs.
    The EU tariffs on US goods average under 2%
    Singapore, Iceland, Switzerland, have zero or less than 1%.

    Which countries have the highest tariffs?

    pre trump, our tariffs averaged about 1.5%, and most of our exports were taxed in a similar range- Japan, at 1.35% for example.
    U.S. tariffs are among lowest in world – and in nation's history | Pew Research Center
    Even "HIGH" tariffs on US exports were maybe 5%. Compared to our current 25%, which you are not going to find "much higher rates", cause they are almost all much much lower.
    people regularly conflate tariffs, VAT and sales taxes.


    dee
    ;-D

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  26. #960
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    Maybe we could get the people used to paying more for products and eliminate the federal income tax like in the old days.
    This would benefit some part of the population.

    The problem I see is that the public is not going to stop buying big screens TVs or all kinds of other things so the actual hurt won't be that big for China.
    25% at wholesale which is about 10% at list is not enough money to bring those manufacturing jobs back into the USA.
    As manufacture's, makers and machine shops we see China prices on finished goods.
    Are you only getting undercut by 10%?

    I do wonder if it more a sneaky tax move.
    Sort of like a VAT on the biggest section of things you could do it on while not calling it a tax.
    Certainly this puts a lot of money into the US treasury. By doing so you can give tax breaks in other areas.
    Trump is no fool and has shown how to shift the focus so people don't question what goes on behind the curtain.

    I think the hurt to China will be minimal, only a outright ban will stop the flow of products.
    The US citizen will see their payment to the government rise but not on that form you file every year.

    There will be noise in the media, people will not be happy but will pay the higher prices.
    It will all become normal and we will not think about it, go into the big box store and lay down our cash.

    One can use the outrage against China to do this and the time is ripe. There is no incentive to deal or go back once hooked on the new cash cow's teats.
    You can have the citizens send more money to our rich Uncle Sam and feel good about it.
    Now with money you can modify the income tax code while giving some almost, gasp "socialist" money to the smaller section that gets hit.
    We don't export as much as we import, funding that side becomes easy-peasy on the balance sheet.
    You keep the flock happy, they feel patriotic and proud that we are standing up, we help the hurt side, you have cash in the bank.
    You raise taxes without raising taxes so the base is happy.
    Perhaps crazy, perhaps crazy like a fox with some misdirection of the media and the general public.
    Our president has done this since day one. It is no accident the tweets and such which point everyone to look one way.
    People think these wild things off the cuff and perhaps even loony. I'm not so sure and see a underlying carefully thought out strategy.
    I don't agree with many things done but the "Art of War" tactics are masterful and have to be admired.

    I do see that It actually could work, there is disposable income here.
    Going back off this addiction could be a problem once it is in place so the advantage to making a deal is small or even a no-go.
    Removing such tarrifs is how we got a fed income tax. Can we raise that if we get a trade deal?

    Follow the money. Perhaps the import of low cost goods has provided a living standard in the middle to low sections that are not justified by their take home pay.
    Maybe we are not doing as well as we think and the low cost goods are propping us up. Sort of a "opatie for the masses".
    Bob

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