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  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    This fellow Jacob Reese -Moog is a riot.

    With a strong sense of what is right and good.

    Jacob Rees Mogg reminds us Brexit means Brexit - YouTube
    No he not, he's a nasty little fascist gob on a stick bastard.

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    Fwiw..
    drump or dtrump has caused the us costs and prices of alu, steel, consumer appliances (parts of) to rise rapidly by about 25% (burdened cost of tariffs).

    GM, Ford, FCA stocks are all well down .. and no end in sight.
    GM is down from 46$ to 31.70$.

    Similar for big auto stocks in general, and has pretty much the same relationship for jobs, production, subcontracting and (us) manufacturing for many here- with some delays due to inertia and existing supply chain contracts.

    Mr Trump has every right to make US policy as he sees fit. Absolutely.

    However, the practical results have been disastrous in terms of global US trade and credibility - as the US is increasingly seen as erratic and unreliable .. leading to increased "other" trade ties with EU/South America, EU/Asia/China etc.

    The US Big Auto stocks are a bellwether for what is happening and will happen, more and more.

    The problem for GM et. al. is that the Big Auto companies cannot survive declining sales.

    They simply *cannot* pay their corporate bonds, pension obligations, and new R&D programs, and simultaneously fill bond covenants with their existing cash and assets.
    Mostly auto companies have about 2/3 of their yearly turnover in assets (non encumbered) like land, ppe, etc. and about 1/3 turnover in cash/similar.
    They have about 1/1 turnover in short term and long term liabilities (often some more off-balance sheet).

    Can the US economy survive the silly tariffs "trade-war" ?
    Absolutely. In theory.

    But one consequence will be the probable decimation of the US auto business and subcontracting and heavy industry like caterpillar etc.
    This seems undesirable to me.
    Vast job losses will result soonish unless US manufacturing in Big Auto and heavy industry get going again, very fast, Very Soon Now.


    I suspect US subcontractors and machinists and equipment manufacturers will react at some point soon, rather than lose their industries wholesale.
    Increasingly EU and india and south america will be getting (more of) the trade with china Mr. Trump made 25% more expensive for the US.

    China has perhaps 20-50x the nr of workers, companies, and internal markets in those manufacturing industries, and will not hurt much since the EU/india/SA/etc trade will increase rather than decrease, mostly compensating for lost US trade.

    China will not lose any major tactical or much less strategic manufacturing capacity, skills, or knowhow - as they will simply buy whatever they need in high tech from japan, switzerland, or the EU while growing their internal markets more vs less sales to the US.

    China will likely lose some % in profits as they switch to other suppliers and trade/supply chains.
    But the US will lose entire supply chains and ongoing trade relationships.


    The current ongoing scenario is terrible for me, for us in the EU, for australia, japan, for south america, for everyone globally.
    We *all* want a wealthy, healthy, stable US, that can buy our products and services (premium goods at premium prices).
    At this time the US does not value this.

    Fine, we make the best of a bad situation and grow ourselves without (some of the ) US trade.

  3. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    At this time the US does not value this.

    Fine, we make the best of a bad situation and grow ourselves without (some of the ) US trade.
    Yep. Got tired of being parasitized we did.

    Do the best you can for your SELVES with all those costly social burdens and tax rates.

    China will, indeed, do just fine. Still alive, they are.

    EU? Kinda trading progress for paperwork, yah?

    No fear. Shouldn't be too long it becomes a cheap place to go "touristing in". Again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    Yep. Got tired of being parasitized we did.

    Do the best you can for your SELVES with all those costly social burdens and tax rates.

    China will, indeed, do just fine. Still alive, they are.

    EU? Kinda trading progress for paperwork, yah?

    No fear. Shouldn't be too long it becomes a cheap place to go "touristing in". Again.
    Not sure if by "Shouldn't be too long it becomes a cheap place to go "touristing in" you mean the EU or the UK.

    To most in the EU the UK has become cheap because of devaluation but not as much as I thought.

    XE: GBP / EUR Currency Chart. British Pound to Euro Rates

    The Euro to the USD then

    XE: EUR / USD Currency Chart. Euro to US Dollar Rates

    Chances are the tourists to Europe are more likely to come from China than the USA.

    Re our "costly social burdens and tax rates." then Americans probably end up paying just as much for the same service level but it's just better hidden. They think they pay less.

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  6. #205
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    1.
    You did ?
    And You then decided to hurt your auto sector and manufacturing and retail.

    2.
    Yes.
    We will do our best with our high taxes and zero healthcare and education costs.
    And very low private school costs (relative) - where my child goes to.
    And very low private health insurance costs - we personally choose to have. With alliance. 1900€/yr for 3, total, global and travel and teeth.

    3.
    The EU is doing extremely well.
    The eejits here in catalonia, and in uk brexit, have caused great harm.

    The EU GDP, income, imports, exports, education are all doing well.

    --
    In several EU countries namely Greece, Finland, Spain the debt is over 100% of GDP +/-.
    Just like the USA.
    And growing == 3-4% y/y exponential.

    There is zero possibility the USA or Spain can ever pay the debts as-is, and the debt level will reach 170% like greece in about 8-11 years.
    Before that the financial markets will cause a collapse.
    This is a terrible thing and will have tremendous negative consequences.

    The US will need to cut military spending about 50%.
    It is the one only major budget item that can be cut.
    Spain will need to cut political jobs spending about 50%.
    It is the one only major budget item that can be cut.

    Both options in US/Spain are now politically impossible and will become very desirable when the alternative is argentine/greece chaos x 10- in about 4-6 years.
    Around 130-140% of gdp debt the USA and EU nations will start to get more expensive financing terms.
    This is about 5-6 years out.

    Once the debt costs start to rise, they affect all the old 105% x gdp debt as well, leading to less ability to pay back the debt.
    Any unwillingness or lack of ability to pay it back will rise the credit risks fast leading to more expenses.

    A technical default Dtrump style will lead to us companies being unable to raise capital globally and all providers asking for payment in advance and euro terms.
    It would collapse global trading in commodities and trust in us debt.



    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    1.
    Yep. Got tired of being parasitized we did.

    2.
    Do the best you can for your SELVES with all those costly social burdens and tax rates.
    China will, indeed, do just fine. Still alive, they are.

    EU? Kinda trading progress for paperwork, yah?
    No fear. Shouldn't be too long it becomes a cheap place to go "touristing in". Again.

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    Does the EU impose tariffs between member states?
    if so
    Who pays?
    Who collects?
    Who benefits?

    If heard mention that BREXIT will reduce the cost of footwear in Briton due to relief from tariff.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    1.
    You did ?
    And You then decided to hurt your auto sector and manufacturing and retail.
    I drive a 2005 MY Jaguar made out of rot-resistant shiney-wood. It should last me 'til too damned OLD to drive. Mum decided to not renew her license at 90, for example. Wanted to quit with a perfect driving record.

    The US "auto sector" want my dollars, they first need to make a vehicle worth buying that does not rust nor need a hammock slung under it to catch all the shit that just falls-off. Has to sell for no more than six month's gross pay and be able to last 20 years or 200,000 miles before any significant spend on maintenance as well.

    Don't hold your breath waiting for ANY of that.

    The buggers have already taught the "progressive self-destruction" technique to the Germans, Japanese, Koreans, and Chinese. Italy already knew it. France isn't sure making motorcars is even a good idea. Expect all that to get worse, not better, as human drivers are phased-out altogether.

    Our manufacturing is doing better than you seem to be aware of. $1.32 trillion in 2017, up 4.7 percent over 2016. That was just the EXPORTS, BTW.

    EU exported a tad more, but the trend is not so good. Not good at all once the UK pulls out of the positive side of those statistics AND buys fewer euro-goods.

    China will take up the slack? Only until they have the ability to make their own rather than pay Germany's prices. Already happening. Time will tell.

    Retail is a never-ending dynamic, anywhere. That's what it is FOR!

    We seem to have no difficulty running ourselves out of space to even sit DOWN for all the borderline useless shite THAT puts into our face and place. We could USE a break, actually. Before Amazon get their mitts on surplused B-52's and carpet-bomb whatever they have not already hit thrice-over, please.

    Meanwhile? Keep whistling as you snail past that "fully burdened" graveyard. It is said to improve your luck. Not that anything can FIND you under all the red tape, tax, social costs, and regulatory burden to do you any further harm. But still...you could mebbe get rich off the back of selling to each other? Greece seems to be hungry for goods. Italy needs some new bridging. Subsidies get large enough, you can still sell airbuses to countries that cannot pay for them. Germany isn't fussed they have massive unfunded old-age pensions. Some weaker EU entity will have to be stripped to cover those costs. If there still IS one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Does the EU impose tariffs between member states?
    The short answer is "No".

    That some things cost more, some less, in EU countries is due to different domestic taxation systems - not tariffs between each other.

    If you move your cursor over each column you can see the full name of the country and the percentage.

    Comparative price levels of consumer goods and services - Statistics Explained

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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    I drive a 2005 MY Jaguar made out of rot-resistant shiney-wood. It should last me 'til too damned OLD to drive. Mum decided to not renew her license at 90, for example. Wanted to quit with a perfect driving record.

    The US "auto sector" want my dollars, they first need to make a vehicle worth buying that does not rust nor need a hammock slung under it to catch all the shit that just falls-off. Has to sell for no more than six month's gross pay and be able to last 20 years or 200,000 miles before any significant spend on maintenance as well.

    Don't hold your breath waiting for ANY of that.

    The buggers have already taught the "progressive self-destruction" technique to the Germans, Japanese, Koreans, and Chinese. Italy already knew it. France isn't sure making motorcars is even a good idea. Expect all that to get worse, not better, as human drivers are phased-out altogether.

    Our manufacturing is doing better than you seem to be aware of. $1.32 trillion in 2017, up 4.7 percent over 2016. That was just the EXPORTS, BTW.

    EU exported a tad more, but the trend is not so good. Not good at all once the UK pulls out of the positive side of those statistics AND buys fewer euro-goods.

    China will take up the slack? Only until they have the ability to make their own rather than pay Germany's prices. Already happening. Time will tell.

    Retail is a never-ending dynamic, anywhere. That's what it is FOR!

    We seem to have no difficulty running ourselves out of space to even sit DOWN for all the borderline useless shite THAT puts into our face and place. We could USE a break, actually. Before Amazon get their mitts on surplused B-52's and carpet-bomb whatever they have not already hit thrice-over, please.

    Meanwhile? Keep whistling as you snail past that "fully burdened" graveyard. It is said to improve your luck. Not that anything can FIND you under all the red tape, tax, social costs, and regulatory burden to do you any further harm. But still...you could mebbe get rich off the back of selling to each other? Greece seems to be hungry for goods. Italy needs some new bridging. Subsidies get large enough, you can still sell airbuses to countries that cannot pay for them. Germany isn't fussed they have massive unfunded old-age pensions. Some weaker EU entity will have to be stripped to cover those costs. If there still IS one.
    That's all fine and dandy but are folk better off and have more money to buy for than previously?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    No he not, he's a nasty little fascist gob on a stick bastard.
    Shouldnt throw words like that about

    Seems like your either branded a lefty pc or a facist if you dont agree with said pc lefty or your a raving commy bastard for thinking national healthcare is important

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    Quote Originally Posted by pressbrake1 View Post
    Shouldnt throw words like that about

    Seems like your either branded a lefty pc or a facist if you dont agree with said pc lefty or your a raving commy bastard for thinking national healthcare is important
    To some it's as if their world is either "right" or "left" and never the twain shall meet. With some things I'm "left" and with others "right" so I'm probably a commie fascistic capitalist.


    "If con is the opposite of pro, then isn’t Congress the opposite of progress?" Jon Stewart

    What’s the difference between an optimist and a pessimist?

    An optimist is the guy who created the airplane.
    A pessimist is the guy who created the parachute.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    No he not, he's a nasty little fascist gob on a stick bastard.
    Where does he speak wrongly in this bit?
    The EU is a Threat to Democracy | Jacob Rees-Mogg | Oxford Union - YouTube

    His speech makes the EU look bad. At least not Democratic.
    If not Democratic, What are the options?

    Nothing I would care for.

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    Many of the isolationists reckon that the EU is run by the non-elected bureaucrats rather than the elected Members of the European Parliament. This is true in exactly as high a degree as countries like the UK and the US are run by the Home Office/State Department and DEFRA/EPA etc. They completely ignore this similarity in their desire to convince people that the EU is less 'democratic' than the countries, states and towns they currently live in. It's either stupidity or rank hypocracy, I don't know which...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Many of the isolationists reckon that the EU is run by the non-elected bureaucrats rather than the elected Members of the European Parliament. This is true in exactly as high a degree as countries like the UK and the US are run by the Home Office/State Department and DEFRA/EPA etc. They completely ignore this similarity in their desire to convince people that the EU is less 'democratic' than the countries, states and towns they currently live in. It's either stupidity or rank hypocracy, I don't know which...
    Australia, NZ and a host of others didn't like being part of a bigger political body where ultimately they had no say in things. These days we're independent of the old so-called British Empire and glad to be so. We wouldn't go back.

    The problem you people have with the EU is, essentially, you're not running it and they ignore you. OK, I understand that it turned from a common economic zone to a political empire over time.

    So - leave & stop moaning about it. Those who want to stay inside the EU, move out now to Ireland, Spain or somewhere else.

    Alternatively, beg your way back in and take whatever you get in return, including the loss of control over migration and ultimately the loss of the UK pound. Because that's what I see on the horizon if you try to go back.

    Either way, for God's sake, STFU and get ON with it.

    PDW

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Many of the isolationists reckon that the EU is run by the non-elected bureaucrats rather than the elected Members of the European Parliament. This is true in exactly as high a degree as countries like the UK and the US are run by the Home Office/State Department and DEFRA/EPA etc. They completely ignore this similarity in their desire to convince people that the EU is less 'democratic' than the countries, states and towns they currently live in. It's either stupidity or rank hypocracy, I don't know which...
    Fearing election hacking, EU leaders to ready sanctions | Reuters

    The EU doesn't seem much like the EPA to me....

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    The daft thing is that emigration from non-EU countries has always been higher than emigration from EU countries and the British government always did have control over that. As for the loss of the UK pound, I was all for it. The UK isn't the global power that the industrial revolution and a large navy helped it to be for a brief period in time. We'd have done a lot better learning lessons from the Germans, French and (even) Italians over the past 45 years instead of continually kicking at the traces. We were the sick man of Europe in the late '60s through to the late '70s, we might get back there yet!

    It'll be fun to seel if the UK can really stand on its own hind feet. I think it's going to surprise a few of us how little the world gives a shit about little old England!

    Do you think that the Commonwealth could have succeeded in the long term as a trading/political group? (forget the Empire, that got broken up right after WW11). It'd be nice to think that it could have, but I suspect that Aus & NZ do far better with the eastern trade, The Indian subcontinent have their own agendas, Canada does far better with the US trade, South Africa and Rhodesia went their one way. The UK is good for the occasional royal wedding, someone to beat at Rugby and cricket and someone to laugh about.

    PS:- I'd have been a £10 tourist with my family in 1965 if I hadn't just come down with diabetes. Apparently this queered the whole deal!

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    So, Rees-Mogg is a facist because he resents control by the unelected bureaucrats of the EU? Well, leftists here in the US have called me the same thing because I resent regulations (laws, in fact) promulgated unconstitutionally by the unelected bureaucrats of our alphabet agencies like the EPA, not to mention a federal judiciary operating way outside its constitutional role. And I obviously wasn't the only one who wanted a change for the better. Stay the course, Britain. Correction is often unpleasant and people will call you names.

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    Where’s the Irish border going to fall?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    So, Rees-Mogg is a facist because he resents control by the unelected bureaucrats of the EU? Well, leftists here in the US have called me the same thing because I resent regulations (laws, in fact) promulgated unconstitutionally by the unelected bureaucrats of our alphabet agencies like the EPA, not to mention a federal judiciary operating way outside its constitutional role. And I obviously wasn't the only one who wanted a change for the better. Stay the course, Britain. Correction is often unpleasant and people will call you names.
    Not in the least. No group of people larger than a very small town or village can be run mainly by the elected officials. There's always the back-office guys pulling most of the weight under the direction of the politicos. The hypocracy comes in stating that one organisation (the EU) has it, while others (UK Government, even my local town council) don't have exactly the same setup. That doesn't make him a Fascist, it just makes him a liar.

    The Irish/Ulster border is something that is not possible to solve. Having inspections/customs between Eire and Ulster will not only cause problems to the inhabitants of the island, but could easily bring back the Troubles, which were one of the longest and (per capita) bloodiest civil wars in recent history. Not having them will be anathema to the isolationists because it'll put borders within the UK. I had two ideas, but both would probably end in tears:-
    1) Go back to the status-quo ante 1916 and have the UK invade Eire and take it over again .
    2) Have all of Ulster be a free trade port, like Hong Kong was. So no borders at either end!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Many of the isolationists reckon that the EU is run by the non-elected bureaucrats rather than the elected Members of the European Parliament. This is true in exactly as high a degree as countries like the UK and the US are run by the Home Office/State Department and DEFRA/EPA etc. They completely ignore this similarity in their desire to convince people that the EU is less 'democratic' than the countries, states and towns they currently live in. It's either stupidity or rank hypocracy, I don't know which...
    Is isolationist a new pc insult to those who question with we need another expensive parliament?
    Does a trade agreement need more pigs at the trough?

    I suppose im a small minding fool because I hate the fact my local town is run by east European gangsters.


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