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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by dkmc View Post
    How do you loose 43% of the mold shops, yet employment is down only 12% ?
    The numbers don't seem to add up.
    Less small shops and more big ones that employ slightly less people.

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    Deindustrialization...

    I do not see any pullback in the industrial side of our economy.

    What I continue to witness is an acceleration of manufacturing activity. As I stated on a different post, the west coast has finally started their uptrend, any weakness from the midwest (if any) will soon be evened out.

    For the first time in our recent industrial expansion strong business activity is now coast to coast.

    Your data is dead wrong, manufacturing is pushing forward at a pace that I have never experienced.

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    I teach machining at a community college. We can't attract anyone. Plenty in welding and mechatronics. Part of the issue is crap pay.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mebfab View Post
    I teach machining at a community college. We can't attract anyone. Plenty in welding and mechatronics. Part of the issue is crap pay.
    The crap pay is because most can't handle it, anyone that can master toolroom machining... you'll be will be rewarded.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gerritv View Post
    The issue with tariffs is that it does nothing to encourage change in 'the system', it just adds costs. As long as those costs can be passed along the food chain to the end user/buyer, nothing will change. As evidenced, the tariffs have done zilch to alter Apple's manufacturing behaviour as one example, they were able to dodge the tariffs altogether so far (afaik).
    I don't fully believe that. Otherwise, nobody would have tariffs at all. The thing with Apple is that Apple can produce anywhere, and the tariffs are on nobody except China. That's not how tariffs are levied most of the time - it's usually to everyone (what are called the MFN rates for against every WTO member - not considering trade agreements that have lower preferential rates), or it's an anti-dumping/countervailing duty against one company or one country. All that has happened is the very latter. On top of that, that doesn't include other tariffs that are implicit like devalued currencies, subsidies to industry, or other non-tariff barriers like product standards or regulations made only for the protection of industry (although it's not phrased that way) - here's an example of that
    Auto exports to Vietnam restart after 6-month stoppage -
    Nikkei Asian Review

    As tariffs have come down, non-tariff barriers have gone up. I don't think anyone disputes that, it just doesn't get mentioned. Pretty much none of the talk on trade policy in the media is realistic and lacks a huge amount of context.

    Don't forget, for all the talk in the article of private equity funds or financial companies pushing this, it was always the Democrats that were in favor of higher tariffs. The Republicans were the ones wanting them to go down. I don't see that mentioned almost ever in the media. What Trump is doing there is not a Republican thing.


    Anyway, what I would like to see from the US govt is a full-on industrial policy, which will include some raised tariffs. It's a lot of how China got where it is, it's a lot of how Japan got to where it is, etc. Even the US and UK historically were high tariff countries until they had a solid industrial base. A guy named Ha-Joon Chang has wrote whole books on this with "Bad Samaritans" and "Kicking Away the Ladder"

    You can find a good synopsis of Kicking Away the Ladder here:
    http://www.personal.ceu.hu/corliss/C...ee%20Trade.pdf

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mebfab View Post
    I teach machining at a community college. We can't attract anyone. Plenty in welding and mechatronics. Part of the issue is crap pay.
    Would you recommend that a young person pursue machining as a career?

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    that's what I can't understand about the "we can't find people" line. I looked into learning CNC through working, and they're like "oh, go to community college" and then we can hire you at like 10-13/hour. Then I look and see community college could take a year or two, and cost me a few grand...... are these people stupid? No wonder they can't find anyone. Somebody could go make 11/hour at Wal-Mart right now and put less effort in, not to mention other jobs that pay more. Many older people I've talked to never went to college for this: they had apprenticeships and learned on the job. College takes too much money and time for that kind of pay

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    that's what I can't understand about the "we can't find people" line. I looked into learning CNC through working, and they're like "oh, go to community college" and then we can hire you at like 10-13/hour. Then I look and see community college could take a year or two, and cost me a few grand...... are these people stupid? No wonder they can't find anyone. Somebody could go make 11/hour at Wal-Mart right now and put less effort in, not to mention other jobs that pay more. Many older people I've talked to never went to college for this: they had apprenticeships and learned on the job. College takes too much money and time for that kind of pay
    How many people with 10-15 years in at Walmart are making 20-30 per hour? The entrance is nice, the career ladder is not.
    Tell me why you won't come in on the bottom end and work your way up? Went to college and spent money? Does this mean you won't clean the jon?

    Instant gratification and no long term thinking. So common nowadays and I do get it as I've made some really bad job/career choices based on the same fast thinking.
    You want to tell others not to make the same mistakes but you know darn well they won't listen any more than you would have back then so it's fruitless.
    Bob

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    Problem is in a lot of places $20-$30 an hour doesn't get you by... I feel very fortunate to live in the midwest where I can still afford a house. I know some friends on the coast and $100k+ doesn't get you very far. I would be happy to make $30/hr in Detroit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    that's what I can't understand about the "we can't find people" line. I looked into learning CNC through working, and they're like "oh, go to community college" and then we can hire you at like 10-13/hour. Then I look and see community college could take a year or two, and cost me a few grand...... are these people stupid? No wonder they can't find anyone. Somebody could go make 11/hour at Wal-Mart right now and put less effort in, not to mention other jobs that pay more. Many older people I've talked to never went to college for this: they had apprenticeships and learned on the job. College takes too much money and time for that kind of pay
    What you are saying is that you do not want invest in yourself and your life.

    First year apprentices also don't make squat and often could earn more during the first and maybe even the second year working someplace else.

    The low pay scale is there for a couple of reasons. First reason is that in an apprenticeship, you are starting out with little value to your employer.

    Second thing is to weed out the chaff. Everyone wants to make tons of money but very few are willing to put in the effort to reach the goal. The low early wage scale helps to eliminate those without a long range view.

    There is also the fact that you are earning money and still getting your education paid for by your employer.

    I am all for education but am also a firm believer that college has become something that no longer always is the best path for getting an education.

    College degrees in STEM also trend to be behind the technology curve by 4-8yrs. just due to the lag in new teachers getting educated and entering teaching. Unless you are getting into post graduate studies, you're likely not going to get into the cutting edge stuff unless you are at a large university with big research programs.

    You have a choice, take a job that pays slightly more than the low paying entry level job that is dead end at where you start or else do something that is going to require a substantial amount of effort on your part that allows you to set your own destiny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    What you are saying is that you do not want invest in yourself and your life.
    Not true at all. I don't have to do this - I have my own thing going and don't work full-time. I'm just wanting to do this part-time purely to learn because I find it interesting. I'm simply speaking from the standpoint of other people. That doesn't sound like a very attractive job when I can go find something else and work my way up. Hell, there are warehouse jobs paying 15 an hour, and other jobs as well. Why would they choose to pursue that and actually pay extra money and time just to get their foot in the door? It makes no sense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    You have a choice, take a job that pays slightly more than the low paying entry level job that is dead end at where you start or else do something that is going to require a substantial amount of effort on your part that allows you to set your own destiny.
    There are other jobs that are entry level that pay more right off the bat and you have the opportunity to work your way up. And you don't have to fork out money and time to educate yourself only to get started.

    You guys need to step back and realize that the deal you're offering people is not that attractive. I'm not saying it sucks at all - again, I think it's interesting. But I think if you really can't figure out why people don't want to get into this, then you're lacking empathy. If you took the education part out of it, you would only then be better on par with other jobs. But expecting people to fork out money and take a year or two of their life just so they can turn around and make not much more than min wage....

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    How many people with 10-15 years in at Walmart are making 20-30 per hour? The entrance is nice, the career ladder is not.
    Tell me why you won't come in on the bottom end and work your way up? Went to college and spent money? Does this mean you won't clean the jon?

    Instant gratification and no long term thinking. So common nowadays and I do get it as I've made some really bad job/career choices based on the same fast thinking.
    You want to tell others not to make the same mistakes but you know darn well they won't listen any more than you would have back then so it's fruitless.
    Bob
    Pull up indeed.com right now and look at what jobs are out there. There's a lot of different jobs just posted online with the potential to work your way up. And they pay as much, and many times more, than what I have heard machine shops offer people with a tech school degree after a lot of money and time. This doesn't even count the jobs that aren't posted that people get through meeting other people. I personally find this stuff interesting, and I do want to learn it, but not to make a living. If I had to make a living off this, I'm not so sure that machining would be my top choice. Hell, I can think of plenty of other things I could/would do, including office work. I'm beyond that now, though, into my 30s. I'm just speaking from the perspective of other people who are looking at this and actually are thinking about this as their career.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dkmc View Post
    How do you loose 43% of the mold shops, yet employment is down only 12% ?
    The numbers don't seem to add up.
    Consolidating and mergers will do that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Mike Rowe of Dirty Jobs fame is one of several people trying to address the issue.

    For too many years young people were pressured to go to college instead of "working with their hands" (in jobs that actually require quite a bit of thinking). Now we face a situation of needing more skilled people if we are to expand.
    Very true. Skilled labor is getting hard to come by. However, I know people that went to college that couldn't find a job when they got out. Whereas, people that have actually learned a skill have a little bit more opportunities. But we're also dealing with the fact that a lot of companies have been pushing manufacturing jobs overseas for years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ewlsey View Post
    Agriculture is the only industry that is never allowed to fail. The coddling and outright subsidizing ensures that money goes where money is.

    For example, crop farmers here are staring down one of the worst harvests in memory, possibly the worst of modern times. Yet, John Deere stock prices have gone up 4%. The reason: Big Green expects farmers to be bailed out and to spend that bailout money on new equipment.
    I think it's a bit more complex than that.

    John Deere is a diverse company.

    I don't see many farms taking delivery of new tractors this year and the deere dealership in town doesn't have much new equipment sitting in their lot either, which is quite unlike previous years where they'd have three or four new combines there to tease the farmers.

    Farmers are pretty tight...if they don't have money coming in, they aren't buying new. The farms that have survived over the years have done so by being able to weather lean years and shitty prices, not being financed to the hilt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    How many people with 10-15 years in at Walmart are making 20-30 per hour? The entrance is nice, the career ladder is not.
    Tell me why you won't come in on the bottom end and work your way up? Went to college and spent money? Does this mean you won't clean the jon?

    Instant gratification and no long term thinking. So common nowadays and I do get it as I've made some really bad job/career choices based on the same fast thinking.
    You want to tell others not to make the same mistakes but you know darn well they won't listen any more than you would have back then so it's fruitless.
    Bob

    The long-term view is what is somewhat discouraging. I'm 13? years into the trade now, with a wife, 2 kids and a mortgage to help 'recalibrate' my perspective.

    I'd like to earn more, but fear that I'm topped out in this trade.

    $30/hour sounds good to the 18-year old who's making $12 an hour. Not-so-much the 30-year old, who's going to give 35-40% away to taxes & health-insurance. (I am NOT trying to derail the thread into politics on taxes & health-insurance.)

    One of the tougher things about the machining trade, is that it's easy to run out of opportunities for advancement. (At least in my opinion, for the moment at least.) I'd be inclined to recommend community college, but having spent some time there myself, the manufacturing/CNC programs leave a lot to be desired. And many business owners/managers aren't willing to invest internally, to teach & train new-comers. So regarding training, there's a huge vacuum of training opportunities - yet another obstacle if there even was a young person who were interested...

    I was very blessed along the way, to work in a few shops where the opportunity to learn was there. But I had to leave & go else-where to make more money. Several times over.



    If there were a realistic possibility of making 6-figures in this trade, you'd see more old-timers recommending it to younger folks, and you'd see more younger folks taking advantage. Unless you want to be a slave to Ford Motor Company, or mortgage your soul & live on ramen for years as you start your own business, that possibility just doesn't exist.

    In my short time of working in this trade, I've seen cost of living go through the roof, (health-insurance, real-estate prices, auto prices, basic services, food,) and yet wages for the manufacturing sector have remained stagnant.

    That is not a good recipe for attracting people into a trade/industry...

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    Top 11 motivations for Digital Transformation | Sathive sourcing | Join Us!

    Going more digital might be a solution for many entrepreneurs

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    Quote Originally Posted by Anders Svendsen View Post
    Top 11 motivations for Digital Transformation | Sathive sourcing | Join Us!

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    Not so happy there in Denmark Spammer ?

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    I got an advert for a draftsman in California, AA or BS(preferred). Rate $18-25/hr. Guess manufacturing is going out. A Ga.Power lineman makes 6 figures with 9 weeks of training. A nurse is at $50/hr after a year or two with a 2 year degree.
    Something is drastically wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gwelo62 View Post
    I got an advert for a draftsman in California, AA or BS(preferred). Rate $18-25/hr. Guess manufacturing is going out. A Ga.Power lineman makes 6 figures with 9 weeks of training. A nurse is at $50/hr after a year or two with a 2 year degree.
    Something is drastically wrong.
    The numbers you have are rather bogus. $18-$25 in Cal. is not a very good wage, can't live on it.

    A nurse making $50/hr- straight time- non-weekends is not a two yr. degree. That is a 4-6yr. deg depending on the school. If that is for weekends and holiday fill in, then yes an LPN can make that.

    The Ga. lineman also has to work out in all weather conditions and time periods. There are also a limited number of job entries for full time work.

    All three of these jobs that are referred to, needs to be put into the context of geographic area, cost of living, etc.

    What is wrong is that people do not see the value in investing in themselves. You don't need to spend $100,000 on a fancy degree to make good money but you will need to develop a skill and knowledge set.

    Motivation and aptitude will go a long ways towards getting a wage you desire. Expecting success to fall in your lap without effort is not likely to happen.

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