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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    No, there are other indices, plus stocks that may not be a part of any notable index. The products that trade on the NYSE aren't only those in the largest indices, nor are they even all stocks. I remember they had physically-deliverable mini-sized silver futures contracts back in 2014 or so. That is to say, you could actually buy tangible silver through a product traded on the NYSE and then go pick it up later (although that's not what futures are used for usually, but that's another topic.) ICE, which is another exchange, bought them sometime around then, and now it's gotten more consolidated.

    I know it may seem like nitpicking, and maybe it is, but taken at face value - saying the NYSE will go up or down doesn't really make sense, nor have I ever heard of anyone say that. Too many products trade across exchanges for one thing, but most importantly the NYSE is just a place that facilitates trading, it isn't the products that get traded themselves.

    I get it if it seems annoying, and I apologize for the nitpicking :-p It just irks me a bit to see it said in such a way. It would kind of be like talking about milk prices and instead of referring to milk futures, you said "the supermarket is going to 20 bucks a pound" or something. There's too many things at the supermarket for me to know what you're talking about, and obviously you're not saying everything in the supermarket will be 20/lb. That's why I was confused when you first started this thread.
    Thank you 123,
    I only look at DOW and S&P, Nasdaq has too much trash, and has very little significant forecasting value.

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  3. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    China in Iran:
    China and Iran flesh out strategic partnership

    Excerpts:
    "The updated agreement echoes many of the points contained in previous China-Iran accords, and already in the public domain. However, many of the key specifics of this new understanding will not be released to the public, despite representing a potentially material shift to the global balance of the oil and gas sector, according to a senior source closely connected to Iran's petroleum ministry who spoke exclusively to Petroleum Economist in late August.

    The central pillar of the new deal is that China will invest $280bn developing Iran's oil, gas and petrochemicals sectors.
    ...
    There will be another $120bn investment in upgrading Iran's transport and manufacturing infrastructure, which again can be front-loaded into the first five-year period and added to in each subsequent period should both parties agree.
    ...
    "This will include up to 5,000 Chinese security personnel on the ground in Iran to protect Chinese projects, and there will be additional personnel and material available to protect the eventual transit of oil, gas and petchems supply from Iran to China, where necessary, including through the Persian Gulf," says the Iranian source."
    So if we had followed up JCPOA with infrastructure investment and closer ties as a means of managing the threat?
    “Maximum pressure” appears to have delivered no influence.
    Did our state department know there were other players on the field?
    This is a huge loss to US influence.

    How many Chinese troops based in Iran does it take to have any military action against the state permanently off the table.

    This:

    “and there will be additional personnel and material available to protect the eventual transit of oil, gas and petchems supply from Iran to China, where necessary, including through the Persian Gulf”

    The world just got much more complicated and this represents a failure of the US to manage its role in it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Saudi Arabia has lot of sophisticated air defense systems. But they lack training, and there isn't a lot of evidence that suggests they know how to use what they have. There is a severe lack of readiness and competence in the Saudi Forces. If they can't hire it out, they usually just don't do it.
    I would have to agree with that.

    I heard on the news that the Saudis said they would be back up and running by the end of the month. That tells me the damage must not have been that great. Did they (Iran?) intentionally not seek out the most damaging targets?

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    The perpetrators whom ever they were seem to have shown the world that there are ways to exploit the defenses of the great US military industrial complex. The sad fact is a cobbled together cheap attach out foxed the billions in defense goodies.

    This is the same argument with the F35, all the wiz bang crap Lockheed and, Raytheon push is mostly smoke and mirrors. The Chinese and Russians are smiling and Lil Kim took note as well. We look down on less sophisticated weapon systems yet, they are not only effective but can overwhelm by shear numbers. The carriers group that left without the carrier, did the navy feel it too vulnerable venturing into hostile waters?

    The oil field could have been monitored by the same low tech balloons used to track drug runners on the southern border. The idea that everything has to be some boutique system that takes years to deliver, we would loose the war in months. The defense industry has the military and pols in their pocket, hell half the conflicts of the last 60 years have been little more that testing labs for weapon systems. We are going to do to ourselves what we did to the USSR, bankrupt our economy on military crap.

    If the Arabs, the Iranians, Pakistani, Afghan, Iraqi and Gulf States hate each other let them fight among themselves. That whole region has been nothing but tribal since day one. They have tons of money yet the choose to live in the 6th century, let em.

    Steve

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    Quote Originally Posted by crazygoat View Post
    I would have to agree with that.

    I heard on the news that the Saudis said they would be back up and running by the end of the month. That tells me the damage must not have been that great. Did they (Iran?) intentionally not seek out the most damaging targets?
    Probably an attack that was not to serious this time to say something like: if you don't stop fucking with us now you know we CAN hit you when and where we want to.
    Like the other month when Iran shot down the global hawk drone that was flying with an orion spy plane with 35 crew on board, also in their airspace. Iran chose the unmanned and I dont think the USA has invaded their airspace since.

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  8. #146
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    Lots of ways to skin this cat.
    A bear thesis for US30 futures.

    BEAR- do ya hear me Otrit..

    screen-shot-2019-09-20-6.53.33-am.jpg


    This is what the Dow fight for survival looks like on a 30 trading chart:

    screen-shot-2019-09-20-7.41.20-am.jpg

    That small bull rally is a bull trap in this analysis- trade is technically bear till that resistance above is breached.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    So if we had followed up JCPOA with infrastructure investment and closer ties as a means of managing the threat?
    “Maximum pressure” appears to have delivered no influence.
    Did our state department know there were other players on the field?
    This is a huge loss to US influence.

    How many Chinese troops based in Iran does it take to have any military action against the state permanently off the table.

    This:

    “and there will be additional personnel and material available to protect the eventual transit of oil, gas and petchems supply from Iran to China, where necessary, including through the Persian Gulf”

    The world just got much more complicated and this represents a failure of the US to manage its role in it.
    Those questions are pertinent. The US wanted the Iranians to not develop Nuclear weapons and to stop supporting terrorism. Really the reputation of US policy consideration and whether or not it is seen in a good light is not the motivation. The peace in the region vs sustained disruption and the likelihood of a major war - actually trying to prevent that is.

    One can say the US should not be a policeman I agree for what that role has become. To effect lasting change in the behavior of Iran there must be the will also of the international community also. There must be a unified effort to bring this change.

    Currently there is not that support. There are countries which wish to bypass the sanctions against Iran and similar regimes which will do business regardless of the sanctions because they want to make more money.

    China placing 5000 troops in Iran and investing money into oil production will stabilize and legitimize the behavior of Iran. They will be making the major step which has been expected and that is to directly challenge the International community which supports Iran to not have Nuclear weapons and to also not finance terrorism and not sending terrorists to fight these wars.

    The thing is that the US does care about these issues and have demonstrated in Syria the willingness to use military firepower in the regions despite Russian troops being in the theatre.

    Policeman roles require the support of those they are to protect. If that is always ignored and usurped then it will not work. Really the US does not want to fill that role and only does so under pressures. The US will act when pushed enough. We see this in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    China should be aware there is a case of diminishing returns supporting Iran like that. Even Russia seems to know better.

    Now regarding the Nuclear weapons in Iran and their development. For many years the US has considered the hardened Nuclear facilities and their destruction. Bunker busters and tactical nukes are a viable option. A limited takedown of the Nuclear program there is not out of the question and has not been taken off the table.

    There has been a request by the US government for any good idea to destabilize Iran for a reward of 15 million dollars. This means that the option of bombing is not a attractive one as much as some other kind of pressure.

    One can say the Shah was bad for sure yet those who took over after him have eclipsed his excesses early and often.

    Yes it is a mess. Yes there will be reaction to this drone attack and Iran will regret it. Bluffing in this manner demands that the effected party cower and tuck their tail under their legs.

    I do not think it can be ignored at all. The die is cast.

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    Quote Originally Posted by crazygoat View Post
    ...I heard on the news that the Saudis said they would be back up and running by the end of the month. That tells me the damage must not have been that great. Did they (Iran?) intentionally not seek out the most damaging targets?
    If they are back up by the end of the month it will be at a greatly reduced capacity.

    This was an incredibly sophisticated attack. They knew exactly what to target, and they hit with a degree of precision that is every bit the equal of what we could do.

    The separation towers and those spheroid separators are the just about the most vital pieces of Saudi infrastructure you can imagine. Saudi oil is "sour", meaning it has a lot of hydrogen sulfide that has to be removed before it can be put on a ship. That's what those separators are for- about 75% of all Saudi oil is processed in those separators. Those are custom-built and will take time to replace. Not something you can do in a couple weeks.

    The very most critical components of that facility were destroyed, and the rest was left unscathed. These weren't lucky hits, and they weren't holding anything back. This attack took months of planning and precise targeting. If you look at the pictures, those missiles that hit the separation tanks all came in at the same height and angle. It's really stunning- you can be sure there is a thorough reassessment of Iran's capabilities taking place right now..

    If they had used larger weapons, or those tanks had been pressurized at the time- this place would have been completely leveled. There were fires around them from the leaking oil, but they didn't explode- maybe the Saudis think they can patch them up temporarily and get a couple of them back online.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve in SoCal View Post
    The perpetrators whom ever they were seem to have shown the world that there are ways to exploit the defenses of the great US military industrial complex.

    ...

    We are going to do to ourselves what we did to the USSR, bankrupt our economy on military crap.
    I realize it's fashionable to channel Eisenhower's farewell address, but let me put it in context.

    Eisenhower was warning about defense spending dominating our economy. It was a legitimate concern. At the time he gave that speech, defense spending was 9% of GDP and 52% of the Federal budget. Today it's about 3% of GDP and 15% of the budget.

    What Eisenhower was warning about never happened...

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    Well stated.
    Our huge outlay as a nation has to be parsed with the size of our economy in relation to other states.

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    Quote Originally Posted by crazygoat View Post
    I would have to agree with that.

    I heard on the news that the Saudis said they would be back up and running by the end of the month. That tells me the damage must not have been that great. Did they (Iran?) intentionally not seek out the most damaging targets?
    More and better analysis of this attack. FF to about 9:45 min to hear why now, why those targets and who it was aimed against.
    YouTube

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    Lots of online info re: the missile/drones seem to be some variant of the Yemeni Qud-1, that the yemenis displayed publicly about 1-2 months ago.
    At least all the parts the saudis have shown so far.

    It is a Yemeni-built missile, somewhat copying some principles from a russian originated missile about 8 years old.
    And a check UAV engine, copied or bought from the checks.

    You could buy the chech engines yourself, if you had a good credit card.
    And hobby guys have been building jet engines from scratch for 20 years.

    These days, practically anyone can build jet engines fairly easily.
    Plenty of knowhow and examples online, and sample engines you can buy to study for not much money.

    They might not be the very best engines in terms of efficiency, max rpm, or egt, but fairly good engines are somewhat easily built with some skills, a machine shop, and 50k of money for parts and one year to do so and a few helpers.

    Notably the QUD-1 is NOT an iranian missile but a yemeni missile, with differents diffusors, engine details, fins, size, nosecone, some other stuff I saw online.

    A 50$ electronics kit or any smartphone will easily direct a drone/missile to fly any paths and waypoints you want, and hit from any direction and altitude you want.

    I did * not * say Iran did not send the missiles.
    I think Iran would be crazy to do so, and I suspect Iran did not actually do so - as they are not crazy at all.

    It seems crazy to me that the US is blaming Iran.
    It also seems crazy to me that the US is increasing tensions wrt Iran - instead of e.g. making bank by selling them the 700 Boeings they wanted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    - instead of e.g. making bank by selling them the 700 Boeings they wanted.
    Surely, Boeing will sell them 700 737 MAX aircraft...."for in-country use only"...

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    ...It is a Yemeni-built missile, somewhat copying some principles from a russian originated missile about 8 years old.
    And a check UAV engine, copied or bought from the checks.

    Notably the QUD-1 is NOT an iranian missile but a yemeni missile, with differents diffusors, engine details, fins, size, nosecone, some other stuff I saw online.

    A 50$ electronics kit or any smartphone will easily direct a drone/missile to fly any paths and waypoints you want, and hit from any direction and altitude you want.

    I did * not * say Iran did not send the missiles.
    I think Iran would be crazy to do so, and I suspect Iran did not actually do so - as they are not crazy at all.

    It seems crazy to me that the US is blaming Iran.
    Iran clones that engine and uses it in UAV's. Iran copied the KH-55, and the Quds-1 looks like a shrunken down version of the copy.

    Just becasue the TJ-100 is a czech design does not mean that it can't be copied. Iran has a very well developed aerospace sector- Yemen has nothing.

    Iran is building this missile to arm their proxies with a cheaper version of the Soumar. It's smaller, and has a turbojet engine rather than a turbofan, which means it has less range. Stratfor and others have analyzed the pictures and estimate the range to be about 435 miles.

    It gives Iran "plausible deniability" for the people who want to believe. Why would the Houthis even want to copy that engine when they can easily get it for free from Tehran?

    It is 620 miles to the Yemeni border from Abqaiq. If the missile was fired from Yemen it would have had to traverse the entire distance across Saudi territory, between Riyahd and the US base in Qatar undected.

    Launched from Iran or Iraq, it would only have to travel half the distance, over mostly uninhabited desert, and evade a small fraction of the defenses in comparison. Coming from the south there are 4 airbases in and around Riyahd, including the Prince Sultan airbase which is one of the largest in the region.

    Previous attacks from Yemen on Riyahd did not go undetected...

    The attackers understood where the gaps are.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    It also seems crazy to me that the US is increasing tensions wrt Iran - instead of e.g. making bank by selling them the 700 Boeings they wanted.
    If we were France, that's exactly what we would do...

    Here's the map of Saudi Airbases:

    saudi-airbase.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Hello Bob,
    You are correct about '73.

    What happened last Saturday was a significant event, but what is more telling is how Saudi Aramco can re-group. I'm sure that there are US companies that are assisting in the repair.

    My reason for being bullish; more worry and doubt is creating a one sided trade. There are way to many shorts in this market.

    30,000 NYSE can be had in 2 trading sessions, and if it happens; complete compilation.
    Repairs will be relatively quick. If we get a war going the Saudis might be put out of the oil business for years with the damage that will be done then.

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    Yes.
    No.

    Yemen developed and built the QUD1.
    Not Iran.

    Sure, they may have used some skills and examples from Iran, and from the Russian original missile, sold to ukraine, exported to Iran.
    So what.

    You could probably build that missile yourself.
    Maybe 70% of OECD PM members could build that missile, for less than 100k$ in parts.
    GPS tracking was mentioned as advanced in some silly war-mongering articles.

    100$ hobby drones and UAVs have GPS tracking and it works to well over 300 km/hr.
    A GPS module costs 5$ or so.

    Apart from maybe 2-4 bearings everything in such a drone can be built by any college robotics team in less than a year using cots stuff.
    And endless hobby guys have done similar uavs, dozens to over a hundred.



    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Iran has a very well developed aerospace sector- Yemen has nothing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    ...Yemen developed and built the QUD1.
    Not Iran.
    That's fine- you believe the Houthis and Iran, over every independent western analyst.

    Goody for you.

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    Good analysis of the quds 1 missle:

    Meet the Quds 1

    Seems to agree with both jancolic and hanermo

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Today it's about 3% of GDP and 15% of the budget.
    THAT is total bullshit ! They get that silly number by ignoring things like Afghanistan, where they have pissed away four or five trillion dollars, and the invasion of Iraq, same-o same-o ... playing games with the books doesn't change the fact that war spending is way more than 16% (you have snuck off another percentage point even from the whitewashers, by the way).

    600 billion my ass, it's way more than that. More than a trillion, if it's a dime.

    Also, a flagrant gimmick, the "veteran's benefits" goes into the war costs. That jacks it up 160 billion even using the whitewasher figures. No war = no veterans. It's a direct cost.

    Even using these bullshit figures, this means we are spending 20% of our federal budget on stupidity. Worthless stupidity. Those nitwits couldn't stop a passenger plane with an hour's warning and now they have proven their much-vaunted anti-missile defenses are worthless as well.

    Total waste of money. We should put the army to work sweeping the streets and tending public bathrooms. Maybe they could pick up litter on the highways. Something useful.

    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    That's fine- you believe the Houthis and Iran, over every independent western analyst.
    There's a saying - fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

    These retards you call "analysts" have been wrong on just about everything they have said in my entire lifetime. Anyone who believes their shit needs his head examined.

    It's all crap. Remember the Maine !

    Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq.

    And the Domino Theory as well ...

    It's long past time to grow up. Fuck those people.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    THAT is total bullshit ! They get that silly number by ignoring things like Afghanistan, where they have pissed away four or five trillion dollars, and the invasion of Iraq, same-o same-o ... playing games with the books doesn't change the fact that war spending is way more than 16% (you have snuck off another percentage point even from the whitewashers, by the way).

    600 billion my ass, it's way more than that. More than a trillion, if it's a dime.

    Also, a flagrant gimmick, the "veteran's benefits" goes into the war costs. That jacks it up 160 billion even using the whitewasher figures. No war = no veterans. It's a direct cost.

    Even using these bullshit figures, this means we are spending 20% of our federal budget on stupidity. Worthless stupidity. Those nitwits couldn't stop a passenger plane with an hour's warning and now they have proven their much-vaunted anti-missile defenses are worthless as well.

    Total waste of money. We should put the army to work sweeping the streets and tending public bathrooms. Maybe they could pick up litter on the highways. Something useful.


    There's a saying - fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

    These retards you call "analysts" have been wrong on just about everything they have said in my entire lifetime. Anyone who believes their shit needs his head examined.

    It's all crap. Remember the Maine !

    Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq.

    And the Domino Theory as well ...

    It's long past time to grow up. Fuck those people.
    Would someone stop yawning Emanuels chain?

    You just go on and on.


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