Economy Firing on all cylinders? - Page 3
Close
Login to Your Account
Likes Likes:  0
Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 41 to 57 of 57
  1. #41
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Country
    UNITED STATES
    State/Province
    Washington
    Posts
    4,574
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    2070
    Likes (Received)
    3814

    Post

    Steve,

    Rich . . ."Such simplistic assumptions about how the world operates does you no service."

    Motion Guru . . . "Shall I continue or do you start to get the picture that I "attempted to relate"?"

    Stick a fork in me . . . I'm done.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Country
    UNITED STATES
    State/Province
    New Jersey
    Posts
    1,420
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    7
    Likes (Received)
    46

    Post

    We just posted one of the best years ever! Shops are all busy and a lot of them seem to be doing a decent amount of overtime.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Rochelle,IL,USA
    Posts
    2,338
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    75
    Likes (Received)
    85

    Post

    Certainly some local areas will do better than others, but over all, America has been losing manufacturing since WW II.


    YEAR---TP--------EM---------PP
    1920-----106.0-----10.658-----10.0%
    1930-----123.2------9.562------7.8%
    1940-----132.1-----10.985-----8.3%
    1944-----139.8-----17.602-----12.6%
    1950-----151.3-----15.241-----10.1%
    1960-----179.3-----16.796-----9.4%
    1970-----203.3-----19.367-----9.5%
    1980-----226.5-----20.285-----8.9%
    1990-----248.7-----19.076-----7.7%
    2000-----281.4-----18.473-----6.6%
    2004-----293.9-----16.484-----5.6%

    TP = Total U.S. population (millions)
    EM = People employed in manufacturing (millions)
    PP = Percent employed in manufacturing of total population
    source: Statistical Abstract of the United States

    And this job loss is not because American manufacturing has become that much more efficient. The reason sits on the shelves of Walmart. And the average American is going down the tubes.

    From 2000 to 2005, the number of bankruptcies in the United States rose from 1,203,080 to 2,026,047 or a 68.4% increase. Illinois saw a 76.9% increase in the same period.

    http://www.aflcio.org/issues/factsstats/factsstats.cfm

    ILLINOIS LOSING HIGH-PAY MANUFACTURING JOBS

    Nov. 17, 2005
    Northern Illinois University
    The State of Working Illinois

    http://www.stateofworkingillinois.ni...wil/index.html

    Between 1990 and May 2005 the total number of manufacturing jobs in Illinois dropped by 24.3%, a loss of 222,500 jobs.

    These were offset by 559,300 jobs created in the service industries.

    Jobs in the professional and business services industries paid an average of 4.6% less than the manufacturing jobs.

    Education and health services,leisure and hospitality paid an average of 29.2% less than the manufacturing jobs.

    In the Rockford area (the most industrialized part of the state) the area lost 9,000 jobs since 2000. 7,000 in manufacturing - a 14% drop paying an average of $43,344 a year.

    These are being replaced with service-sector jobs paying an average of $27,249 a year.

    I've said it before, imports are about 16% of our economy but get away with only paying 1% of all Federal taxes.

    We Americans get stuck with the tab.


    Steve

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Green Bay Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    1,314
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    0
    Likes (Received)
    24

    Post

    Steve, You were the one who said Congress adopted Alex's Thesis. You said it was the "Second Act of Congress".
    I said they did the Tarrifs only--- a year later. Then you said it was the cornerstone of Alex's thesis.
    Since when is "part" a "whole" ?
    Was it the second act, or was it a year later..your facts are slipping
    Rich

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Genoa, Illinois
    Posts
    1,471
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    11
    Likes (Received)
    260

    Post

    Maybe it is an Illinois thing. I see pretty much the same thing Steve sees here in Illinois. This area is nothing like what you guys describe in other parts of the country. Glad to hear some areas are dong well.

    We have lost a ton of manufacturing jobs in Northern Illinois and here are a few reasons.
    Taxes are high here and so are utilities along with realestate. It is an expensive place to live. Our winters contribute to even more expense. Therefore, companies go elsewhere to find cheap labor because it ain't going to be here.

    I hear the state of Illinois itself has a tax on business's. Another reason to leave or locate elswhere. The state of Illinois is so hard up they don't have enough resourses to collect their own revenue. Buy a boat and it takes 6 months to get it registered in the state.

    If I were younger, I would consider leaving Illinois even though it feels so darn good when winter is finally over.

    Jim

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Edison Washington USA
    Posts
    10,186
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    933
    Likes (Received)
    5201

    Post

    The economy is definitely regional- Out on the West Coast, its crazy- everybody is very busy.
    My stainless steel supplier delivery guy was by a couple of weeks ago, and his semi was full- and he comes up this way EVERY DAY- we are a small county with just over 100,000 residents, and we are consuming, in our shops, tons of stainless, aluminum, and bronze, every week.
    There are little shops tucked away around me that crank out a lot of high dollar stuff, and they are all busy- but the common denominator seems to be small, non-union, fast and clever businesses.
    No time clock punchers welcome.
    I remember my dad's stories about his summer jobs in Illinois during college- he worked in Steel Mills, Auto Plants, and places like that- and in every one, the first thing you would learn was the hiding places where you sleep during working hours.
    That would never fly around here.

    Near me are small shops making things like $2000 fishing reels, seismic testing equipment, flood drying fans, bus bicycle racks, kayaks, lots of aluminum boats ranging from 10' to 200' long, rubber stamps and rubber stamp inkers, as well as two companies Motion Guru works with- a new sawmill being built from scratch, and Janicki, which makes tooling for racing sailboats, airliners, and other high tech stuff.

    In all cases, they are modern, tooled up, and have a few, smart employees.

    We are undoubtedly MORE expensive than Illinois or South Eastern Michigan in just about every way- we have higher gas, liquor, and employee taxes, probably higher business taxes, and pretty darn high property taxes as well, plus a sales tax.
    And property here is out of sight in terms of cost- a mobile home on a 50x100 lot in my county would run you over 200 grand. Move closer to the big city, and that can double.

    So it isnt the cost of doing business, or high taxes, that keeps businesses away- we attract business, even though we are pricey.
    It is transparent government- you couldnt bribe a government official here, at any level, if you tried- while I have heard of cops in Chicago giving change for a 20 not to give you a speeding ticket-
    It is a state that pays to keep infrastructure current. We are behind on some things, but our roads mostly dont have potholes, utilities are quick to get, building permits, while fussy and expensive, are relatively quick, and the eco-stuff is all out front, even if you dont like it- they will tell you right off what you have to do, or where you can and cant build.

    It is a critical mass of youngish, smart, "modern" people- the young guys who start dot coms, or even modern fab shops, dont want to live in hillbilly heaven- they want espresso bars and sushi and wi-fi. So they go where all that stuff is.

    And of course, some of it is just hype, just the latest hip place to live- so places like Eugene, or Santa Cruz, or Seattle, are hipper than Youngstown or Flint- and even though its all pyschological, it still affects where people move.
    Once you get that ball rolling, it attracts more people with money, who bid up real estate prices, who start little companies with their savings, who go out to expensive restaurants, and buy expensive unneeded consumer goods.

    Pittsburgh and Youngstown have lost half their populations since their peak. Detroit, much more. Lots of rust belt cities are steadily shrinking, their tax bases dropping, and their infrastructures falling apart.

    Meanwhile most western cities are growing like crazy, with lots of new houses and businesses filling the coffers of the cities, who in turn are building schools, libraries, rapid transit, and so on- all meaning jobs, and cash flow.

    It may be a fad, in many ways, to move to Tucson or Medford, and to leave Cinncinatti and New Jersey, but the effect is the same.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Southeast Michigan
    Posts
    6,471
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    234
    Likes (Received)
    1408

    Post

    tell me about it. my wife can't get a job as a teacher anywhere in michigan it seems.

    a posting will come up and the school will get 1500 resumes. how do you compete against 1500 other candidates when you just left school?

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    1,629
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    0
    Likes (Received)
    0

    Post

    Pittsburgh and Youngstown have lost half their populations since their peak. Detroit, much more. Lots of rust belt cities are steadily shrinking, their tax bases dropping, and their infrastructures falling apart.

    You'd think that Pittsburgh would be booming. Since the Mills have closed the air has become very clean. We have several "name" Universities, including one of the top five Engineering and Computer schools in the US (CMU). We have a large regional museum (Carnegie). A world class symphony and opera. World reknowned Arts festivals.

    Three major league sports teams, with two of them sporting brand new stadiums. One of them won the Superbowl five times in a row (Steelers).

    We still host several major Corporations (PPG, Alcoa, USX) as well as associated R&D facilities (Alcoa Technical Center). I worked at ATC, which is so large it has its own zip code and is the largest non-ferrous metals research facility in the world. ATC, where you can do World Class research all night long, then as you're leaving in the morning startle the deer who are resting against the building...

    Except of course.... Pittsburgh has the highest per capita of employees to taxpayers in the US. With the associated pension and pay burdens, which we all get to pay. High taxes. Indiscriminate use of "eminent domain" to chase out less than glamourous businesses, replacing them with favored business.

    Some of the crappiest highways in North America, bar none. It's said that the Orange cone is the State flower - sure wonder sometimes. I can't drive twenty miles in any direction during the summer and not run into construction.

    Militant, bitter, nasty "in your face" Union mentality. Taxes, taxes, taxes, and business regulation.

    Rich lazy elites who play the system to stay on top. We got those two new stadiums AFTER a vote to fund them failed. "Plan B" was, "We'll float a bond, the taxpayers will pay. Tough apples". Guess who funded the campaign? You ran into their names during the last Presidential campaign - on both sides of the ticket.


    The plus side is that we have little crime, aside certain areas. It's a decent place to raise kids, almost no gang activity. History. Hunting. Fishing. Delightful spring, summer and fall, pretty gentle winters.

    Hard hard work ethic. During the blizzard of 2003 me and six other guys stayed on at ATC to tend the experiments, otherwise Alcoa would have lost $100K in costs. I stayed on a day and a half, lived off of vending machines and what we could pinch from personal food stocks, washed my underwear in the sink and was relieved when the weather broke. Was proud as heck to do it too. I'm not unique, my friends also put in long hours. We work hard.

    Be nice if we had some business, but that's changing. The Old Guard is dying off, taking their silliness to the grave with them. The future looks bright for us.

    Gene

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Rochelle,IL,USA
    Posts
    2,338
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    75
    Likes (Received)
    85

    Post

    Rich-
    Was it the second act, or was it a year later..your facts are slipping.
    Yup, every once in a while I slip up, just in case somebody thinks I'm perfect. Actually Hamilton's Federalist Number 21 was the article I should have put:

    http://www.ameriroots.com/federalist/paper_21.html


    "There is no method of steering clear of this inconvenience, but by authorizing the national government to raise its own revenues in its own way. Imposts, excises, and, in general, all duties upon articles of consumption, may be compared to a fluid, which will, in time, find its level with the means of paying them. The amount to be contributed by each citizen will in a degree be at his own option, and can be regulated by an attention to his resources. The rich may be extravagant, the poor can be frugal; and private oppression may always be avoided by a judicious selection of objects proper for such impositions. If inequalities should arise in some States from duties on particular objects, these will, in all probability, be counterbalanced by proportional inequalities in other States, from the duties on other objects. In the course of time and things, an equilibrium, as far as it is attainable in so complicated a subject, will be established everywhere. Or, if inequalities should still exist, they would neither be so great in their degree, so uniform in their operation, nor so odious in their appearance, as those which would necessarily spring from quotas, upon any scale that can possibly be devised.

    ¶ 12 It is a signal advantage of taxes on articles of consumption, that they contain in their own nature a security against excess. They prescribe their own limit; which cannot be exceeded without defeating the end proposed, that is, an extension of the revenue. When applied to this object, the saying is as just as it is witty, that, "in political arithmetic, two and two do not always make four

    ¶ 13 ." If duties are too high, they lessen the consumption; the collection is eluded; and the product to the treasury is not so great as when they are confined within proper and moderate bounds. This forms a complete barrier against any material oppression of the citizens by taxes of this class, and is itself a natural limitation of the power of imposing them."

    The Federalist Papers were published in the Newspapers of New York beginning October 27, 1787 and ending August 16, 1788. They predate the first tariff act of 1789.

    From that point forward until WW II, America pursued a protectionist trade policy that built the U.S. into the manufacturing center of the world. In contrast, the British eliminated their tariffs by 1860 and witnessed their own engineered decline which by WW I left them dangerously vulnerable to blockade by German U-boats as they became dependent on imports.

    Steve

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Green Bay Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    1,314
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    0
    Likes (Received)
    24

    Post

    Steve
    two interesting points on your comments.
    First, England lowered tarrifs (you said 1860)as you pointed out...but it was TOO late then ..the barn was opened 50 years earlier when they started to loose the "Technology edge". America was already on the roll to become a power house..

    Second
    Your points above # 12 and #13 are excellent !

    Now lets APPLY (!) them to current conditions, and a very hot subject.
    Once America's oil patch was max'd out through regulations or supply 30 years ago, ALL Tarrifs and taxes should have been removed..according to the above..but they were not.
    So might not the economy and manufacturing be dragged down by this obvious violation of Alex's comments ?

    Rich

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Rochelle,IL,USA
    Posts
    2,338
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    75
    Likes (Received)
    85

    Post

    Rich-

    America's oil supply is of national security and needs to be protected. Nations like Britain, who embraced the free trade religion, stopped using common sense and allowed themselves to become dependent on foreign sources for items necessary for national security. When war came and U-boats hunted down Britains vulnerable life supply, they realized just how dangerous free trade can be.

    Rabid free traders in their simplistic mindset, ignore the lessons of history of becoming dependent on foreign sources for essential materials and manufactures. As for oil, read this article:

    http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...52C1A960948260

    This is almost unbelievable that our leftist Universities, who have done more to indoctrinate America's college students in the free trade religion, are starting to back track on their dogma. And here is another:

    http://www.rff.org/Documents/RFF-DP-03-59.pdf

    And here is one supporting tariffs on ethanol imports for national security:

    http://www.ethanolrfa.org/objects/pd...tion_Paper.pdf

    As for Hamilton, this comes from "Report on Manufactures".

    http://history.acusd.edu/gen/text/ci...ufactures.html


    "Not only the wealth, but the independence and security of a Country, appear to be materially connected with the prosperity of manufactures. Every nation, with a view to those great objects, ought to endeavour to possess within itself all the essentials of national supply. These comprise the means of Subsistence, habitation, clothing, and defence."

    This paragraph is the 18th from the bottom at this web site.


    "A free people ought not only to be armed, but disciplined; to which end a uniform and well-digested plan is requisite; and their safety and interest require that they should promote such manufactories as tend to render them independent of others for essential, particularly military, supplies."

    George Washington
    State of the Union Address
    January 8, 1790


    Steve

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Green Bay Wisconsin USA
    Posts
    1,314
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    0
    Likes (Received)
    24

    Post

    Steve
    I read the post
    http://www.rff.org/Documents/RFF-DP-03-59.pdf
    And while it is an interesting read, I found it fascinating that they ignored 3 Issues
    1. Mass transit,
    2. Passed off domestic production as a nothing to be gained
    3. Ignored the "China" effect that will substantially change the world oil market.

    Good read, but only a half shovel of payload
    Rich

  13. #53
    art_deco_machine Guest

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Rochelle,IL,USA
    Posts
    2,338
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    75
    Likes (Received)
    85

    Post

    art-

    Excellent article, in particular this statement:

    "No-think economists make rhetorical arguments that the decline of U.S. manufacturing employment reflects higher productivity from technological improvements and not a decline in U.S. manufacturing per se......If the United States is doing as well in manufacturing as no-think economists claim, where did an annual trade deficit in manufactured goods of one-half trillion dollars come from?"

    Thank God somebody has some common sense. What is painfully obvious to main street America seems to escape our "intellectuals".

    "What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damn fools said would happen has come to pass."

    Lord Melbourne
    British Prime Minister

    Steve

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    England
    Posts
    3,038
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    24
    Likes (Received)
    689

    Post

    the British eliminated their tariffs by 1860 and witnessed their own engineered decline which by WW I left them dangerously vulnerable to blockade by German U-boats as they became dependent on imports.
    We've always been dangerously vulnerable to blockade over here as we always needed to import raw materials to turn into to manufactured goods, cotton from the southern states of the US in the 1800's springs to mind.
    By 1900 though, the only native supplies of iron ore and other metals were being worked out, until the 1970's we never had our own supply of oil, although we've always had plenty of coal.

    However the lessons learned in the 1900's seem to have been lost as we now import gas from Russia via a very long pipeline to generate power.... Russia gets uppity... out go our lights

    Boris

    <<investing in a candle making factory

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Rochelle,IL,USA
    Posts
    2,338
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    75
    Likes (Received)
    85

    Post

    "We give to our rivals a free market of 43,000,000 persons in the United Kingdom to add to their own free market. Thus the United States possess an open market of 82,000,000 persons in the United States, plus an open market of 43,000,000 persons in Great Britain, making, altogether, 125,000,000. Similarly, Germany possesses an open market of 43,000,000 in Great Britain. As against this, we posses only such residule of our open market of 43,000,000 as the unrestricted competition of foreign nations leaves unimpaired…We call ourselves Free Traders, but we have never secured Free Trade for ourselves; we have merely succeeded in enlarging the area within which our Protectionist competitors enjoy Free Trade."

    John Stuart Mill
    "The Op-Ed History of America"
    p. 23

    Even the rabid Free-Trader, John Maynard Keynes, had to back track on his free trade religion after he witnessed the whole sale gutting of Britains’ economy by free trade:

    "Defense of free trade theory is, I submit, the result of pure intellectual error, due to a complete misunderstanding of the theory of equilibrium in international trade - an error which it is worthwhile to extirpate if one can, because it is shared, I fancy, by a multitude of less eminent free traders. Does he (William Beveridge-London School of Economics) believe that it makes no difference to the amount of employment in this country if I decide to buy a British car instead of an American car?"

    The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes
    vol. 20 p. 508

    Pennsylvania steel manufacturer Joseph Wharton argued that imported steel rails from England had cost $165 in gold per ton in 1864; five years later, behind a protective tariff, a U.S. steel industry was producing all of America’s needs for $80 per ton.
    By 1880, the United States behind a protective tariff, was second only to Great Britain in its share of world manufacturing output, with the U.S. producing 14.7 % compared to Britain’s 22.9%. By 1913, the United States was producing 32% of the world’s output compared to Germany at 14.8% and a sinking, free trade Britain at 13.6%. "We lead all nations in agriculture; we lead all nations in mining; we lead all nations in manufacturing," President McKinley declared. "These are the trophies we bring after twenty-nine years of a protective tariff".

    From 1869 to 1900, the gross national product quadrupled.
    The United States ran budget surpluses every year from 1866 to 1893.
    The national debt was reduced by two-thirds; by 1900 it was less than 7% of the GNP.
    Customs duties provided 58% of all federal revenue from 1869 to 1900.
    There was no income tax - save Lincoln’s wartime tax and Cleveland’s brief 2% flat tax on the rich, which was declared unconstitutional.
    Between 1870 and 1900, commodity prices fell 58%.
    Real wages, despite a doubling of the U.S. population, rose 53 percent.
    Annual growth of the U.S. economy averaged more than 4% a year from 1870 to 1913.
    From 1870 to 1913, U.S. industrial production rose 4.7% a year, compared with 2.1% a year in free trade Britain.
    American exports grew by almost 5% a year from 1870 to 1913, while free trade Britain’s grew less than 3%.
    Protectionist America’s share of world exports rose from 7.9% in 1870 to 12.9% in 1913 - while free trade Britain’s fell from 18.9% to 13.9%.
    Between 1869 and 1910, merchandise imports fell from 8% of the GNP to 4%.
    The United States began the era with half of Britain’s production and ended it with more than double Britain’s.

    By 1885, the United States had surpassed Great Britain, then considered the world’s major industrial power, in manufacturing output. By the turn of the century, it was consuming more energy than Germany, France, Austria-Hungary, Russia, Japan, and Italy combined. Between the 1865 and 1900, American coal production rose by 800%, steel rails by 523%, railway track mileage by 567%, and wheat production by 256%.

    Steve

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    Richardson TX / Dana Point CA
    Posts
    1,197
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    0
    Likes (Received)
    0

    Post

    Mills and Keynes are both dead. Different world.

    World is heavily influenced by energy and communications now. Mills and Keynes weren't plugged into this.

    They did not understand the fundamental math of economics, either. Didn't have it. Chaos math, and all the related stuff, are fundamental to even understand the nature of energy, matter, and turbulent flows. So I am very skeptical.

    The next 25 years are going to be too interesting for me to really see, but I don't think old dead economist have the answers...

    ---jerry


Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •