The effect of automation in Manufacturing in the world - Page 4
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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    I think it started in the metal cutting world with not having a foot treadle on your turning machine.

    In the 60's and 70's all "detail" or smaller than 1000 man shops where manual mills and lathes.
    I had rows of many B-ports.
    If you wanted to make a custom form, radius, or even just a pulley groove you ordered or made a special tool. CNCs killed all this and are the biggest automation change I've seen in my years.
    Feed raw stock in one side and pop a finished engine block out the on a transfer line is way older than me.

    This CNC thing has been a huge revolution yet the VMC is now accepted as standard equipment.
    Why, because it's easier and you get more done at a lower cost. That may mean higher profits or lower end user price.

    Yes it kills jobs and reduces the people employed.
    Is this good or bad as it also makes products more affordable to customers?

    One can and should read "Player piano" but it is wrong on so many tangents. The Luddites have to come to mind in this conflict.
    My first oh-shit, can't sleep, am I on the right side moment came with machine vision in the 80's.
    The stuff I built eliminated my best friend wife's job.

    Automation means you need less workers, it also means you can afford to pay them a decent wage.
    Should we back wages down to $3 per hour and not use such? Does anyone win by doing so?
    You would employ more people at a same price output so if it's simply a headcount of people employed.......
    Bob
    It means you COULD pay the remaining people more.
    That’s not what’s happening.

    Something else CNC has added is quality.
    No Thursday vs Monday quality gaps.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    Fair enough . Lots of automation. I notice companies now which have the robot arm for loading and unloading. I have not seen one yet being used. Besides there is more to running a machine than just loading material.
    You may be thinking of something entirely different from my interpretation, but I first ran into load/unload robots at Caterpillar in 1964. Putting pins into a heat treat furnace and removing them. Not for cost savings but for eliminating a repetitious hot, dangerous job.

    Tom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    Exploit...used all the time in texvnical context.
    Leverage, use, exploit.
    To use to maximum advantage.

    I exploit an opponents weakness when playing bridge.


    The coal jobs lost to automation happened decades ago.
    Steel manufacturing is expanding, the number of jobs is minimal due to automation.

    I’m skeptical of the expansion of production in the steel industry.
    I suspect that when the new...more efficient (automated) facilities come on line the older facilities will close.
    We already have the capacity we need, there’s no good business case for long term expansion.
    Exploit-to use to maximum advantage,these are your words. For a communist to even think such a thing must be abhorrent,Oh no it isn't when it suits you.
    The coal mining jobs lost out to automation happened decades ago,once again your words. Help me out here who is that bloke, you know,the one who could do nothing right if he agreed with you all day every day,Oh come on,the one who lives in the White House. What does he say about coal.
    STEEL,we already have enough,why would we want more? CLUE, unravel these letters, texorp. If that was too hard ask for more clues.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    Exploit-to use to maximum advantage,these are your words. For a communist to even think such a thing must be abhorrent,Oh no it isn't when it suits you.
    The coal mining jobs lost out to automation happened decades ago,once again your words. Help me out here who is that bloke, you know,the one who could do nothing right if he agreed with you all day every day,Oh come on,the one who lives in the White House. What does he say about coal.
    STEEL,we already have enough,why would we want more? CLUE, unravel these letters, texorp. If that was too hard ask for more clues.
    Is there something wrong with using something to maximum advantage?

    Why are you bringing trump into the conversation?
    He has had zero impact on the structural impact of automation?
    All he’s ever done is leverage inherited ownership (exploit) of real estate and a brand.

    FWIW...sentencing reform is a good thing.
    Glad he signed it after Kock bros pressure.
    Of course, he replaced the prison industry cash flow with other sources of income.

    Do you really think that USA steel can compete globally?
    Seriously?
    We can only build capacity with a defensive domestic tarrif.
    We haven’t been competitive globally since the 80s
    Come on.
    We can’t even build tool steels as well as the Germans or Japanese and Koreans.
    You think we’ll be shilling rebar to China?

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  7. #65
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    I have a few dead weight losers in my department I would love to replace with a robot. We can fire them and then replace them with another loser.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawnrs View Post
    I have a few dead weight losers in my department I would love to replace with a robot. We can fire them and then replace them with another loser.
    That is funny. I can think of several past fellow employees who would be replaced. I am not sure how easy it is really. A friend of mine was involved in the cannery business. The way he described the whole thing from cooking to canning led me to understand the level of the best automation of the time. Reasonably we have seen automation is nothing new. Even manual machines were automation or maybe not.

    There will be many jobs displaced where automation is implemented. At least in the short term.

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    Besides the cost advantage there are other reasons to mechanize/automate. Elimination of on-the-job injuries such as carpel tunnel injuries for example.

    Tom

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    Quote Originally Posted by TDegenhart View Post
    Besides the cost advantage there are other reasons to mechanize/automate. Elimination of on-the-job injuries such as carpel tunnel injuries for example.

    Tom
    That concern only exists because of regulation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    That concern only exists because of regulation.
    Or maybe that concern comes from giving a shit about the lifetime of those who make the money for you.
    Try being a little less cynical about shop owners and some us would buy more into your arguments.

    You seem to have a huge bias which is all fine by me but perhaps a job as union committee man or above level is your real calling.
    Maybe a big job shift but it pays the money and you get to do the "good" fight every day.
    Let's face it, you enjoy the fight and the support for the little guy and no love for management bends your crank .
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Or maybe that concern comes from giving a shit about the lifetime of those who make the money for you.
    Try being a little less cynical about shop owners and some us would buy more into your arguments.

    You seem to have a huge bias which is all fine by me but perhaps a job as union committee man or above level is your real calling.
    Maybe a big job shift but it pays the money and you get to do the "good" fight every day.
    Let's face it, you enjoy the fight and the support for the little guy and no love for management bends your crank .
    Bob
    Sorry...
    Show me that even 10% welcome an osha visit.
    The odds are just too high.
    You can look around the nation, around the world, and across time to see that it’s not the kindness and concern of the benevolent owner that’s keeping workers safe.
    To paraphrase...
    We need a machine for that because we have to pay when they get hurt.

    Maybe I’m cynical because I’ve seen my share.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    i read your input into this discussion and yet I find it hard to relate to this issue as you present it. I am actually shocked by automation. What happens when the jobs are cut because there are no longer any need for the level of workers is disturbing to me. I know the future must make room for automation and I just do not know what the displaced workers will do to thrive.
    When I was at Junior school, I remember the teacher telling us that by the year 2000, there will be so many robots all helping us doing our jobs, it will make for a better life because we'll all have more free time.
    Now, a few things go through my head:-
    1. Who was advising the teachers this - it was 1978 and must have seemed very far-fetched at the time.
    2. Who was going to pay for everyone to have more free time (perhaps that was it - no pay, but FREE time!)
    3. I distinctly remember thinking at the time wow, year 2000, i'll be old (33). Little did I know...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    The owners profit quite nicely.
    But so does the end user (Consumer).
    We do get cheaper prices for product...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    It means you COULD pay the remaining people more.
    That’s not what’s happening.

    Something else CNC has added is quality.
    No Thursday vs Monday quality gaps.
    IMO wages for the good people have rocketed.

    And it's repeatability, not quality.
    Quality only comes from the guy who has engineered the process.
    The machine just repeats...

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    But so does the end user (Consumer).
    We do get cheaper prices for product...
    True.
    The question becomes this.
    Once no one has gainful employment it doesn’t really matter how cheap a toaster is.
    Once that happens manufacturers move towards luxury production, because there’s no market for inexpensive goods.
    Try buying a basic fridge.

    An economy relies on having consumers as well as producers.
    Highly concentrated capital doesn’t consume the way broad based wealth and earnings do.

    Just like the globalized economy has generally improved lives across the board...But what happens when Walmart employees can’t afford Walmart crap.

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    Following on from Bobs "many Bridgeports" comment...

    When I started my apprenticeship (Aerospace/Black Box company) in 1983, I worked in the R&D model shop.
    There were
    2x (including me) in the Model shop (4x lathes, 2x Bridgeports)
    2x in the Toolroom (Bridgeport and Colchester & Surface grinder)
    8x in the machine shop (2x Bridgeports, 2x Colchesters, 2x Schaublin collet lathes)
    2x Inspectors

    In 1985, the company purchased a Miyano BNC34 2ax CNC lathe and 2x Bridgeport Boss controlled CNC Mills.
    For the coming years, parts were blocked up square and to length, to sit in a vice in the CNC's. The foreman would not load a billet and profile the part - his words were it was cheaper to use George (the guy on the Bridgeport) to block up parts because his hourly rate was so low compared to the CNC's.
    And the foreman actually kept a lot of work away from the CNC's because the hourly rate was so high

    Anyway, roll forwards to say 2015 when I had my business, and we had
    1x Prototrak mill (Bridgeport clone)
    1x Protorak late
    2x CNC lathes
    7x CNC Mills
    1x CMM
    There were 3 full time on the machines + me 50% of the time and wifey doing the accounts/paperwork/delivering etc and we produced more parts, with far more complexity in a factory of 1750 square feet (half the area of my apprenticeship company).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    True.
    The question becomes this.
    Once no one has gainful employment it doesn’t really matter how cheap a toaster is.
    Once that happens manufacturers move towards luxury production, because there’s no market for inexpensive goods.
    Try buying a basic fridge.

    An economy relies on having consumers as well as producers.
    Highly concentrated capital doesn’t consume the way broad based wealth and earnings do.

    Just like the globalized economy has generally improved lives across the board...But what happens when Walmart employees can’t afford Walmart crap.
    Yeh, this question has been going around for quite a few years.
    But humans are pretty good at adaption. Well, the ones who will get off their arse and get on with it ones.
    For the others, you'll be glad to hear there's socialism...

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Yeh, this question has been going around for quite a few years.
    But humans are pretty good at adaption. Well, the ones who will get off their arse and get on with it ones.
    For the others, you'll be glad to hear there's socialism...
    If there are only so many jobs it becomes unreasonable to use the “get off your ass” argument.
    I’ve never bought into the idea that people would rather sit on their asses and drink beer on the porch.
    Sure some always will, but I’m a bit more optimistic about people wanting to have a job.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    But so does the end user (Consumer).
    We do get cheaper prices for product...
    Perhaps this is true in Blighty- but, in my 63 years on the planet, I have found that cheaper prices apply only to a few product categories, and the cheaper prices are mostly accompanied by lower quality, as well.
    Clothing, food, appliances, tools, automobiles, housing, shoes, and many more things I use are all roughly ten times the price of when I left school in the early 70s.

    Computers fell in prices for a while, but, a new, decently appointed computer these days is approaching the price I paid in 1984 for one. SSD's are great- and add several hundred dollars to the price for a halfway decent sized one. Cell phones dropped in price, during the early 2000s, to the point where they were almost free. Now, a new Iphone can cost $1000.

    The quality of things like refrigerators, or audio amplifiers, or hand tools, has consistently dropped, while prices have not. The major electronics and appliance stores where I live tell you to expect 3 to 5 years of life, whereas, my 1990 fridge lasted 20 years.

    In the USA, we can order extremely low priced items on Amazon, drop shipped from China- and lifespan is often measured in months.
    I tend to pay much higher prices to get quality. I could buy a handheld grinder from China for ten dollars. Instead, I just bought 2 made in Germany Metabo's for $250 each. Ten years ago, my Bosch grinders were half that.

    Financial "products" go up in price all the time. Interest rates on credit cards are in the 20% range. Cable TV and Internet monthly fees are more than I used to pay in rent.
    All of which are supposedly much more efficient due to all the computers and automation.

    I do not see consumer prices falling- I see a steady rise in prices, for almost everything, over the last 40 years, while wages have remained steady.

    I think we have been sold a bill of goods about that "low consumer prices being the reward for offshoring jobs" line.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post

    Clothing, food, appliances, tools, automobiles, housing, shoes, and many more things I use are all roughly ten times the price of when I left school in the early 70s.

    I do not see consumer prices falling- I see a steady rise in prices, for almost everything, over the last 40 years, while wages have remained steady.

    I think we have been sold a bill of goods about that "low consumer prices being the reward for offshoring jobs" line.
    But, the prices maybe 10x the price of the early 70's, but your wages are a little more than the 70's?
    And wages haven't remained steady over the last 40 years surely???
    Yes, I wholeheartedly agree with your last statement.

    Don't get me wrong, I fully agree that the general lowering of standards, or product that seems designed to fail (at 5 years) isn't good, but that's commercialism.
    You used to be able to buy something a little cheaper that's a little worse. But globalisation has reduced (consolidated) the amount of actual producers because as we know, lots of time the same identical crap comes out of just the one factory now, but is sold in many outlets but with a different label or name on the front.
    I wonder if there are products that have timer chips in that are designed to produce a fault or expire at 5 years...

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  28. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    When I was at Junior school, I remember the teacher telling us that by the year 2000, there will be so many robots all helping us doing our jobs, it will make for a better life because we'll all have more free time.
    Now, a few things go through my head:-
    1. Who was advising the teachers this - it was 1978 and must have seemed very far-fetched at the time.
    2. Who was going to pay for everyone to have more free time (perhaps that was it - no pay, but FREE time!)
    3. I distinctly remember thinking at the time wow, year 2000, i'll be old (33). Little did I know...
    As far asI can figure it seems the teachers were very altruistic and simply bought in to a kind of Utopian narrative. 2000 was a point that was considered to be the future. It was sort of a measuring point. Seems it is not very relevant expecting tremendous breakthroughs . Looking back perhaps we were naive.

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