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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    We are all doomed, the sky is falling soon. . . .
    Bob
    Here's one of the more optimistic versions of our future:

    1) The world shifts from perpetual conquest and collapse mode (with the stakes and population increasing in its cycle) to more sustainable economies.

    2) Part of this is recognizing that we might do better in a creation-based rather than a consumption-based economy. Right now it seems we teach kids (all those reality TV shows) to aspire to cheat and steal to get the lifestyles of the rich and famous – gold plated everything, 300’ yachts, $10,000 bottles of wine, and a couple Bentleys for the mistresses. Might be better if we teach them to seek the opportunities to create of a (name your favorite entrepreneur, artist, scientist, farmer, mother, father, etc.).

    Point is, we’re already touching on limits to growth in consumption. Not everyone gets a 300’ yacht, and there’s something to be said for a kayak. On the other hand, we could have far greater growth in discovery, creation, invention, start-ups, local farms, -- things where our ideas and time are as much a required input as limited physical resources. Could be want the rewards for success to be actually creating something of value; rather than, say, Manafort’s closet of expensive Italian suits or a Martin Shkreli jacking up the price of a single-source pharmaceutical. Automation makes small-scale creation, manufacturing, farming, production etc. every more feasible.

    3) Thanks to automation, turns out here’s plenty of food, clean water, housing, sustainable energy, materials, affordable health care, etc. for, say, a world population of 8 (?) billion. Problem is more one of distribution.

    4) There’s also (still) plenty of work to be done by human hands and minds – kids to be taught, discoveries to be made, art to be created, even (still) potholes to be fixed and streets to be swept. We revel in a world where our neighbors are doing something cool – or at least worthwhile.

    5) Every kid has at least one truly competent adult on their side, a good education, and health care. They have shot at being the best they can be. We stop arguing about whether it’s mothers or men that decide when and how many kids get born -- and focus more on having each kid born into a situation where they have a real shot at thriving and (eventually) contributing.

    6) We agonize, but muddle through, on the question of what to do with adults who won’t or can’t contribute – even if by filling potholes. The answer looks a bit like families, on average, that replace themselves. With everyone motivated to contribute (and be recognized for) contributing something of value. And then we add some level of support for the very few, through no fault of their own, can’t contribute.

    7) Could be the humans and their machines do become a bit more integrated. Kids already seem to have a computer/phone/camera permanently attached to hands and ears. We merge the best of carbon-based and silicon-based life???

    8) Life is really good, at least until the Sun stops swallows the Earth some 500 million years from now.

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  3. #122
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    Read an interesting article early today on the topic of automation and jobs.

    One point is that the "wall" we don't have to prevent people from taking US jobs is for outsourced automation. Put a person, computer, robot, or AI in another country -- and "they" can do the customer support, build most of our clothes and furniture (and increasingly other bits of home and commercial construction), do the accounting, intepret the x-rays, and so on.

    Outside of farming, construction, food, hotel, and cleaning services, the average US worker is far more likely to lose a job that way. Certainly true of manufacturing. One of the biggest reasons big CAD firms were doing so well for the 80's on was that solid models and PDM made it a whole lot easier to shift manufacturing abroad. And while we could easily stop illegal immigrants from taking jobs (just requiring employers to check), it is and will be more difficult to deal with the outsourced (even to remote "robots") jobs.

    One can also imagine (back to this "wall" notion), with drugs like Fentanyl, that machines in another country making, sorting, packing, and mailing or drone delivering the contraband will be far more of our drug abuse problems than "mules." And of course our own home-grown pharma-made opioid addictions and deaths were immensely helped by automation to ramp up production, direct marketing campaigns, and the like.

    The point being that automation doesn't just make stuff faster and cheaper for both producers and consumers -- it can change lives and cultures faster. In ways that aren't so easy to identify or scapegoat. Sometimes for worse. Sometimes (if we're on our toes) for better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    4) There’s also (still) plenty of work to be done by human hands and minds – kids to be taught, discoveries to be made, art to be created, even (still) potholes to be fixed and streets to be swept. We revel in a world where our neighbors are doing something cool – or at least worthwhile.
    ....
    6) We agonize, but muddle through, on the question of what to do with adults who won’t or can’t contribute – even if by filling potholes. The answer looks a bit like families, on average, that replace themselves. With everyone motivated to contribute (and be recognized for) contributing something of value. And then we add some level of support for the very few, through no fault of their own, can’t contribute.
    I see the potholes being filled by an automated self driving truck with a scanner to scan the road surface. It sees a pothole, blast it with high pressure air to clean it, hit it with torch to soften the paving and inject new paving into the hole until level. Move on to next one and continue until truck is empty and return to base for a refill of materials.

    Do the non contributors get sent from utopia to the Savage Reservation?

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    [QUOTE=PeteM;3321743]
    --------------

    5) Every kid has at least one truly competent adult on their side, a good education, and health care. They have shot at being the best they can be. We stop arguing about whether it’s mothers or men that decide when and how many kids get born -- and focus more on having each kid born into a situation where they have a real shot at thriving and (eventually) contributing.

    ----------------------

    When you solve this problem you will have achieved a HUGE positive benefit for mankind.

    Tom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    Thanks, this just helps make the point that there are MORE people out of work than stated in the official info. I have not looked hard to find but am curious about how many people are no longer looking for work and have dropped off the list. Maybe wellfare or foodstamps type of data could be a starting point?
    How to even count homeless people? Maybe not as many in the great white north.
    Most recipients of “welfare” and food stamps work or are required to be in training.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    We are all doomed, the sky is falling soon.
    The rich will take it all and we will become serifs or slaves to those with the real money since they own the hill and higher ground.
    (posted a bit in sarcasm)

    Above wants to talk Chicago, talk to us in Flint.
    Where did the first real labor strikes take place? Got these in your family and blood?

    It's all silly.

    I wonder when this was pasted on the walls of every shop. Looks sort of old.
    Attachment 251240
    Bob
    I do not think the sky is falling yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    I do not think the sky is falling yet.
    I think it’s more like the frog in boiling water analogy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    I see the potholes being filled by an automated self driving truck with a scanner to scan the road surface. It sees a pothole, blast it with high pressure air to clean it, hit it with torch to soften the paving and inject new paving into the hole until level. Move on to next one and continue until truck is empty and return to base for a refill of materials.

    Do the non contributors get sent from utopia to the Savage Reservation?
    Oh well I have to say LOLOL.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    ...recognizing that we might do better in a creation-based rather than a consumption-based economy.
    Well, the creators do tend to do better than the consumers, but that's because it takes many thousands of consumers to support a creative business. The extravagant lifestyle of the stereotypical Hollywood star—or upper-level drug dealer—still depends on millions wanting to consume his or her "product." If everybody was a shoemaker, and as creative as Jimmy Choo in the bargain, how would they make a living?

    Right now it seems we teach kids (all those reality TV shows) to aspire to cheat and steal to get the lifestyles of the rich and famous – gold plated everything, 300’ yachts, $10,000 bottles of wine, and a couple Bentleys for the mistresses. Might be better if we teach them to seek the opportunities to create of a (name your favorite entrepreneur, artist, scientist, farmer, mother, father, etc.).
    Well, let's insert the name Henry Ford (or Gene Haas, for that matter) and see whether a story of late nights and hard work might be an easier sell to millennials than whatever they imagine as the route to riches. Experience (mine, at least) indicates that is an uphill battle. Those who are currently working all night and living on ramen so they can afford the equipment they need to make it big don't have time for macroeconomics, but they do understand they've a better chance if their potential customers don't strive as hard as they do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carbide Bob
    I wonder when this was pasted on the walls of every shop.
    Every union shop where the UAW got to say what was posted on the walls, maybe.
    Does it make me feel guilty for employing automation in my enterprise to the maximum extent practical?
    Naaah.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    Every union shop where the UAW got to say what was posted on the walls, maybe.
    Does it make me feel guilty for employing automation in my enterprise to the maximum extent practical?
    Naaah.
    Automation shoud not make anyone feel guilty . It seems the decisions for implementing automation being of free will and having the money to invest is currently free to do. It becomes the responsibility of government if good conscience is a factor to ease the transition of it. If government does not do this then whatever results because of automation will be for the history books either good or bad. The bad may in fact be regret that more care was not taken to ease the transition.


    I think that may be what could happen (rushing ahead) since the desire for greater profits will fuel the move forward.,It remains to be seen because until this happens really we can not say because automation is the future. The effects on the citizenry remain to be seen and because it has not happened yet and is in the realm of theory until everything actually happens. This can support caution now with the implementation of the pace of automation today.

    Yes it is a theory (going too fast) and it it may be a valid theory in advance of such investment to consider how very profound change the atomation promises for us considering the advantages long term and short term.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    Automation shoud not make anyone feel guilty . It seems the decisions for implementing automation being of free will and having the money to invest is currently free to do. It becomes the responsibility of government if good conscience is a factor to ease the transition of it. If government does not do this then whatever results because of automation will be for the history books either good or bad. The bad may in fact be regret that more care was not taken to ease the transition.


    I think that may be what could happen (rushing ahead) since the desire for greater profits will fuel the move forward.,It remains to be seen because until this happens really we can not say because automation is the future. The effects on the citizenry remain to be seen and because it has not happened yet and is in the realm of theory until everything actually happens. This can support caution now with the implementation of the pace of automation today.

    Yes it is a theory (going too fast) and it it may be a valid theory in advance of such investment to consider how very profound change the atomation promises for us considering the advantages long term and short term.
    By God.
    You are morphing into a progressive...and a Luddite.

    And the horror...with socialist leanings.

    Did you get a plate of bad carne seca?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    By God.
    You are morphing into a progressive...and a Luddite.

    And the horror...with socialist leanings.

    Did you get a plate of bad carne seca?
    The whole issue of that vs the other extreme is over rated. It is because in reality order always considers the interest of the people formost. Any point of view is only valid of it proves to consider this need, That is considering right or left. It is a valid consideration whatever your point of view is anything else misses the mark of good governance.

    Luddite proves my point. LOL

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    others have a different view and that is fine with me. i do believe in automation done the way my opinion is. my opinion may not be the way it happens. When it happens I have no control over it then so it will be proven the right way or the wrong way in history. I can not control the velocity except by my input now. I still believe automation is inevitable and good overall.

    Mig dont try to mark me as a extreme progressive. I try to be more balanced that that. I believe most of the world is not extreme right or left.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    .....The bad may in fact be regret that more care was not taken to ease the transition.
    ...
    Why the concern at this point?
    Do you see something new coming? How can we stop other nations?
    I've lived in "automation alley" for a while now. Many have come and gone.
    We built the "Factory of the future" in the mid 80's in Saginaw. Not the hoped for results but a lot of good people tried hard.
    How is today different than 1960, 1970, 1980 or so on?
    Is there a need now to worry or legislate more than then? Or was it that we should have stopped such earlier?
    Why do the masses need cheap goods like a big screen TV? Should we go back to the older models of building stuff and keep such out of the reach of working man?
    Has automation brought "better things to life" for those without the 6 figure pay?

    Henry Ford had an automation idea to bring automobiles to a lot more people. Perhaps we should have stopped this.
    Bob

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    Aren't power tools automation in a primitive sense? Or would it have to run by itself to be "automated" So a simple automation would be a bandsaw that turns off at the end of the cut, not a wormdrive skilsaw that needs an operator to push it. But isn't a skilsaw more "automated" than a hand saw? Or an axe?
    My idea of automation starts with the bandsaw, but using a skilsaw means you dont move your arm near as much, the saw itself is automatically doing that for you with every blade rotation. The cutting is automated all the operator does is guide the cut. Was John Henry fighting automation competing with the steam drill?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    others have a different view and that is fine with me. i do believe in automation done the way my opinion is. my opinion may not be the way it happens. When it happens I have no control over it then so it will be proven the right way or the wrong way in history. I can not control the velocity except by my input now. I still believe automation is inevitable and good overall.

    Mig dont try to mark me as a extreme progressive. I try to be more balanced that that. I believe most of the world is not extreme right or left.
    Simply put.
    From a manufactuerong perspective the impact of automation is to increase productivity.
    How the loss of those jobs associated with that along with the reduction of spending cash is a different question.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Why the concern at this point?
    Do you see something new coming? How can we stop other nations?
    I've lived in "automation alley" for a while now. Many have come and gone.
    We built the "Factory of the future" in the mid 80's in Saginaw. Not the hoped for results but a lot of good people tried hard.
    How is today different than 1960, 1970, 1980 or so on?
    Is there a need now to worry or legislate more than then? Or was it that we should have stopped such earlier?
    Why do the masses need cheap goods like a big screen TV? Should we go back to the older models of building stuff and keep such out of the reach of working man?
    Has automation brought "better things to life" for those without the 6 figure pay?

    Henry Ford had an automation idea to bring automobiles to a lot more people. Perhaps we should have stopped this.
    Bob
    I think all the posts are mostly agreed upon by me. I do wonder about the subject very much. Times are better now than in the 60’s for sure.

    I wish I did see something new really. I think automation is basically good and I agree with it. Having said that I also think things are slow in coming in that automation for all the proposed advantage is somewhat just hype. The reason is investment and fear. I suppose there is the thing of affordability. If it is the answer then why hasn’t it been rapidly growing?

    We can not stop other nations yet we might be very wise to automate quicker quicker and better than them. China comes to mind. They are concerned about the impact of automation on people and they are communist!

    No no we do not need to go back in time to old affordable tech though there might be a good market for it. If we consider the cost of higher priced homes over much less expensive ones it can be said there is just affordable levels of choices. When there are people who make money in the upper catagory it does not mean they have a large pile of money depending on their choices.

    They must be careful too because a lot live on a higher plane of choices in what they buy than people who make low wages. Once a boss of mine would say he did not understand why a employee would leave for another shop to earn $1.00 more per hour. I thought he had a good point until I did the math because to the employees it added up in their life as a fair increase over the year and a lifetime.

    The point he had to think of in fairness was why would my boss not pay him $1,00 more per hour to stay if he was disappointed the employee would leave? It is not about whether the boss might not be able to pay that really as much as the worker could get more and so they left.

    Today is a lot different than 1960. Of course you may disagree with me Bob. Just the fear of lawsuits alone are just one of many things employers worry about. Employees worry about their trade today even surviving. We were told learn a trade then we saw manufacturing decline and also the value of pay across the board since about 1962. That is seen in statistics.

    Whether or not we legislate more now than then is a good question. I think legislation may be about the same or even more across the board. I think today most of the laws on the books just need to be enforced rather than make new legislation. In the face of automation workers should think ahead and avoid having to learn other skills. It has not reached a noticeable level so far but it will some day before long if automation is not just bluff or wishful thinking or even leveraging through threat of doing so to reduce wages. Yep I said it. If everyone talks about it yet sits on their hands and does not buy it then what purpose does the dream have?

    Poor man’s automation is just finding lower cost labor really or could be. Labor is not a huge savings as people say, there must be other payoffs for the cost of automation so it must be less expensive. Please let me know how it is growing as it would be interesting. Mazak has been automated now for years and so in some cases it really works.

    i wish I knew the future. I can only guess but from what I see I would put my money in only if it paid off. That is above my pay grade. Automation in specific settings may be good yet increased production and accuracy must be there to pay off. Reduction of people is small reductions and too small to count on that one thing to pay for the costly investment of it. Otherwise I would be seeing it grow. Maybe it is growing now and I just have not seen it.

    Automation has to be really cool stuff though. I hope to see more of it past the CNC’s!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    We can not stop other nations yet we might be very wise to automate quicker quicker and better than them. China comes to mind. They are concerned about the impact of automation on people and they are communist!
    I don't know what communism has to do with automation but I know that if you visited China many of your ideas and notions on what it's like would be in for a shock.

    China produces about 80% of the world's air-conditioners, 70% of its mobile phones and 60% of its shoes. The white heat of China's ascent has forged supply chains that reach deep into South-East Asia. This “Factory Asia” now makes almost half the world's goods. Mar 12, 2015

    Watch and think. I've been in Shenzhen a couple of times.
    YouTube

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    I don't know what communism has to do with automation but I know that if you visited China many of your ideas and notions on what it's like would be in for a shock.

    China produces about 80% of the world's air-conditioners, 70% of its mobile phones and 60% of its shoes. The white heat of China's ascent has forged supply chains that reach deep into South-East Asia. This “Factory Asia” now makes almost half the world's goods. Mar 12, 2015


    Watch and think. I've been in Shenzhen a couple of times.
    YouTube
    Likely you are right. China is concerned about coming Automation which will effect them and I think that is a good thing. It gives consideration to any changes along the way which may cause social stress. It may be the case that it is separate to the human factor as it seems to work out for the better and then there are other things that people can do to work.

    I will enjoy seeing automation in action and I trust it will lower the cost of goods which is a gain. Probably in my case I am more concerned than the reality and inevitability warrants the concerns. Guess it is the unknown or just change. I will get out of the way. China is a terrific example of positive growth for sure. I am sure a visit would impress me.

    That is a very informative video. So India, Vietnam and other countries are poised for tremendous growth. China paves the way.


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