The effect of automation in Manufacturing in the world - Page 8
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  1. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    Likely you are right. China is concerned about coming Automation which will effect them and I think that is a good thing. It gives consideration to any changes along the way which may cause social stress. It may be the case that it is separate to the human factor as it seems to work out for the better and then there are other things that people can do to work.

    I will enjoy seeing automation in action and I trust it will lower the cost of goods which is a gain. Probably in my case I am more concerned than the reality and inevitability warrants the concerns. Guess it is the unknown or just change. I will get out of the way. China is a terrific example of positive growth for sure. I am sure a visit would impress me.

    That is a very informative video. So India, Vietnam and other countries are poised for tremendous growth. China paves the way.
    You seem to think automation has yet to arrive.
    That’s wrong.
    It’s been here for decades, if not centuries.
    I can’t think of any field that hasn’t been impacted heavily.

    Perhaps you are waiting for the bipedal robots.

    I thought of an automation resistant field...technical glass blowing

  2. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    You seem to think automation has yet to arrive.
    That’s wrong.
    It’s been here for decades, if not centuries.
    I can’t think of any field that hasn’t been impacted heavily.

    Perhaps you are waiting for the bipedal robots.

    I thought of an automation resistant field...technical glass blowing
    Well yes I know there is a lot of automation in place already. I am interested in the newer types of automation. Maybe loading arms and the AI improvements already discussed which are amazing. Bipedal robots are coming? That would be something. Glass blowing is a high paying skill.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    ...order always considers the interest of the people formost. Any point of view is only valid of it proves to consider this need...
    I suspect your phrasing may have been unintentional but the above is right out of a certain series of trials in the 1930s.

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    State legislators are talking about the effect of automation. Tied into that is minimum wage. Seems a concern is more automation in fast food.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    I suspect your phrasing may have been unintentional but the above is right out of a certain series of trials in the 1930s.
    Unintentional for sure.

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  7. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    I suspect your phrasing may have been unintentional but the above is right out of a certain series of trials in the 1930s.
    Whatcha series are you thinking about?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    State legislators are talking about the effect of automation. Tied into that is minimum wage. Seems a concern is more automation in fast food.
    I would completely support automation in fast food joints. When I was in high school a buddy of mine worked in a burger joint, he also chewed tobacco.... Whenever he changed his dip the old one went right on the burger in front of him. He actually bragged that nobody ever complained in the couple years he did that. Somehow I think the automated robot wont do that sort of thing. Even now almost 40 yrs later I have a hard time going to fast food places.

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    I think from your story I have to agree.

    I was wondering as we are on PM afterall and we support it what is in the immediate future implentations of automation in manufacturing? I know this is something that many people do not necessarily wish to discuss as they have private plans and associated risks with the integration of different levels of committed automation. I can read and comment on what I read and see yet I am sure I do not know the trend besides lights out manufacturing, bar fed lathes, and also HMC's over VMC advantages-tooling extensive for what kind of parts which are done. (dedicated tooling ready to go).

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    Lights out manufacturing is the holly grail, there are now enough lights out cells that it is not uncommon. When a plant can bring in raw material and component parts, assemble and, package lights out that industry will achieve automation nirvana.

    Canned and frozen food are getting pretty close, news papers and web press facility are too. Complex assembly is only complex until automation solves the equation. I know many are old enough to recall seeing the automated sheet metal inset lines with the very cool magazines that rotated and twirled the inserts to orient them for installation. That is the kind of stuff that was automated 50 years ago, imagine what can be done with the equipment we have today.

    There will always be some people to tend to the automation and service things. The logistics of supply and delivery will include people, so will general plant services. The first industries to fully automate will be the ones closest to it now. Food processing/packaging, printing, forest products(post harvest) and, chemical/elemental refining and processing lead the way.

    Realistically, about half to 3/4 of jobs today in production won't be needed. That is not the entire work force but, it IS a huge number of workers that span the economic spectrum. Yea there will be new jobs in the future we haven't even dreamed of, the question of how human capital is employed is the unknown.

    Steve

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    I would completely support automation in fast food joints. When I was in high school a buddy of mine worked in a burger joint, he also chewed tobacco.... Whenever he changed his dip the old one went right on the burger in front of him. He actually bragged that nobody ever complained in the couple years he did that. Somehow I think the automated robot wont do that sort of thing. Even now almost 40 yrs later I have a hard time going to fast food places.
    I only get fries at McD ; pretty unlikely for a worker to contaminate that. Typically the fryers are situated close to the cashier counter, so you can see the cooking and unloading process. Fries go into the hoppers from a bag. After frying they get dumped into the S.S. tray, then get scooped up and dumped into the cardboard containers. Still I only get fries a few times a month ,and that too only because the McD is between college and the freeway on-ramp.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spud View Post
    I only get fries at McD ; pretty unlikely for a worker to contaminate that. Typically the fryers are situated close to the cashier counter, so you can see the cooking and unloading process. Fries go into the hoppers from a bag. After frying they get dumped into the S.S. tray, then get scooped up and dumped into the cardboard containers. Still I only get fries a few times a month ,and that too only because the McD is between college and the freeway on-ramp.
    Hey Spud, how long can you go without eating potatoes?

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  17. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    Hey Spud, how long can you go without eating potatoes?
    Ha, when I was a kid I used to eat home cooked fries everyday. If it weren't fries, it was chips / crisps.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve in SoCal View Post
    Lights out manufacturing is the holly grail, there are now enough lights out cells that it is not uncommon. When a plant can bring in raw material and component parts, assemble and, package lights out that industry will achieve automation nirvana.

    Canned and frozen food are getting pretty close, news papers and web press facility are too. Complex assembly is only complex until automation solves the equation. I know many are old enough to recall seeing the automated sheet metal inset lines with the very cool magazines that rotated and twirled the inserts to orient them for installation. That is the kind of stuff that was automated 50 years ago, imagine what can be done with the equipment we have today.

    There will always be some people to tend to the automation and service things. The logistics of supply and delivery will include people, so will general plant services. The first industries to fully automate will be the ones closest to it now. Food processing/packaging, printing, forest products(post harvest) and, chemical/elemental refining and processing lead the way.

    Realistically, about half to 3/4 of jobs today in production won't be needed. That is not the entire work force but, it IS a huge number of workers that span the economic spectrum. Yea there will be new jobs in the future we haven't even dreamed of, the question of how human capital is employed is the unknown.

    Steve
    I will never forget the first CNC I ever saw running it was a Strippit and it was dang amazing as I had only manually punched holes in sheet metal previously. It was jaw dropping and awesome and I loved the whole metal working trade more. I was hooked and in for the long haul and of course the long haul has not been as ideal as first promised me. That is life.

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    I keep thinking that the wages being offered today wouldn't be too bad if people weren't being hosed on the price of renting or owning a place to live (to say nothing of education debt). I don't believe in giving away free housing, but the effects of automation have not transferred to real estate values, so we've got the problem of people who have to live in both worlds where a low value currency must be spent into a high value market. The thing is, the high value market is mostly priced by speculation, and not development costs, so it is more like a virtual world interfering with the real world.

    I don't know what others think the value of citizenship is, but I have the notion that it should entitle you to a 'piece of the country you were born in. 'Citizenship credits' that should have a valuation that cannot be 'cashed in' (similar to how a non-refundable tax credit works) can be applied to procuring shelter. Real expenses like utilities and property taxes are still settled with cash. The landlord gets proxy use of the citizenship credits of his renters so that he can profit from his investment. Perhaps holding credits in proxy translates into a real tax credit for the landlord.(The proportions of this tax credit might be difficult to balance initially).

    What do ordinary people who already own their homes do with their citizenship credits? They lend them to developers who have the incentive to invest in housing to harvest tax credits. What quality of housing? Good enough to keep the renters happy enough to stay for a while, and thus giving their credits in proxy. Perhaps the 'citizenship credits' value of a dwelling place becomes tied to its potential for habitation, in terms of the number of people it can support (comfortably?).

    Citizenship credits accrue in number with population growth (an advantage, I think, over a monetary standard like gold which is population agnostic) so they could form the basis for a parallel economy. There is never a need for more credits than the population supports, so the number of credits can always be reconciled against census numbers.

    There are likely millions of arguments against this low resolution plan. But we do like to pay lip service to the value of the individual, and then turn around and say nobody should get a free ride, which I agree with. But a certain minimal living standard, we are willing, perhaps, to guarantee, if for no other reason than to prevent strife. If you are happy with minimal living, then here is an investment community that will invest and give you that, for a reward. If you want better than minimal, then you pay extra.

    Citizenship credits could also come with a score system to provide feedback against the destructive and careless individual. "We have minimal housing, and then there's MINIMAL housing below that, if you get my drift" Of course, the ombudsman business will thrive, but there's millions of people available to omsbud, because there's nothing else to do

    Too radical for Earth? Maybe Mars, then

    Please set phrasers lower than 'stun' when responding

  20. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve in SoCal View Post
    Lights out manufacturing is the holly grail, there are now enough lights out cells that it is not uncommon. When a plant can bring in raw material and component parts, assemble and, package lights out that industry will achieve automation nirvana.

    Canned and frozen food are getting pretty close, news papers and web press facility are too. Complex assembly is only complex until automation solves the equation. I know many are old enough to recall seeing the automated sheet metal inset lines with the very cool magazines that rotated and twirled the inserts to orient them for installation. That is the kind of stuff that was automated 50 years ago, imagine what can be done with the equipment we have today.

    There will always be some people to tend to the automation and service things. The logistics of supply and delivery will include people, so will general plant services. The first industries to fully automate will be the ones closest to it now. Food processing/packaging, printing, forest products(post harvest) and, chemical/elemental refining and processing lead the way.

    Realistically, about half to 3/4 of jobs today in production won't be needed. That is not the entire work force but, it IS a huge number of workers that span the economic spectrum. Yea there will be new jobs in the future we haven't even dreamed of, the question of how human capital is employed is the unknown.

    Steve
    I think the real kicker is at the end here.
    “Human Capital”...is only useful if it has a use.
    If not then we are nothing but consumers for the factories.

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  22. #156
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    I do not know the exact numbers of things yet it seems with the introduction of Automation in say farming or other business currently using a lot of human labor,it seems at first that the freed up labor is quickly put to work in another area where labor is needed. Like manual machines vs CNC there are times where these machines are still utilized and still have value.

    It seems also that Automation has safety concerns with the automatic driving cars.One person was hit and killed by one here a while back. There is a learning situation when this kind of thing is used. Another thread discusses the 737 Max. The pilots fought the automation where it's sensors misread the actions of the aircraft.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    I do not know the exact numbers of things yet it seems with the introduction of Automation in say farming or other business currently using a lot of human labor,it seems at first that the freed up labor is quickly put to work in another area where labor is needed. Like manual machines vs CNC there are times where these machines are still utilized and still have value.

    It seems also that Automation has safety concerns with the automatic driving cars.One person was hit and killed by one here a while back. There is a learning situation when this kind of thing is used. Another thread discusses the 737 Max. The pilots fought the automation where it's sensors misread the actions of the aircraft.
    Accidents per mile driven, self driving cars have a better record than humans. And will continue to do so.

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    It is new also. Still in development and testing. Still it is a scary change to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    It is new also. Still in development and testing. Still it is a scary change to me.
    I trust the average Tesla more than I trust the average idiot playing on their cell phone while eating a McDouble...

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    That is a good point. It used to be a lot worse and if someone was driving crazy I could see they were on their cell. Now in this area tickets are issued unless people use hands off technology and so it is a bit safer. There are no automated cars here which I know of. I am kind of surprised I have not seen that in town. They are into all that.


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