The effect of automation in Manufacturing in the world - Page 9
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  1. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by TeachMePlease View Post
    I trust the average Tesla more than I trust the average idiot playing on their cell phone while eating a McDouble...
    Or bubba in his pickup sucking down PBR...or Becky in her Jetta.

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  3. #162
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    As somewhat of a sw "geek" and automation guy ..

    A lot of gut feel and reactions seem to expect automation results to affect US assembly and lower level manufacturing jobs.
    I think this is a major mistake.
    Indian and chinese factory managers speak excellent english these days.

    4 and 5 axis turntables, and sw/controllers, will become dirt cheap consumables almost overnight.
    Like PCs did.

    Multi-stage production platforms run by sw will become dirt cheap almost overnight.
    With automated loaders, etc.

    Imo by about 2029, ten years from now, a basic vmc will have a 2-stage trunnion and an automatic loader/unloader, at the very least.
    And finishing will be mostly in-machine done-in-one.

    But..
    It is not at all sure that US or EU machinists jobs will decrease significantly.
    Most likely job pay will increase and job numbers will decrease somewhat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    That is a good point. It used to be a lot worse and if someone was driving crazy I could see they were on their cell. Now in this area tickets are issued unless people use hands off technology and so it is a bit safer. There are no automated cars here which I know of. I am kind of surprised I have not seen that in town. They are into all that.
    We can't allow driver-less cars.
    A slippery slope.
    Then comes no-driver local delivery vans...... then long haul killing 3 million+ jobs.
    All this bad for jobs as you view it but maybe good for the consumer and their quality of life.

    Perhaps it would be better if CNC machine tools had never have been invented? That automation was devastating to so many.
    Should we have stopped that and outlawed any import of such tech?
    Bob

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  6. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    We can't allow driver-less cars.
    A slippery slope.
    Then comes no-driver local delivery vans...... then long haul killing 3 million+ jobs.
    All this bad for jobs as you view it but maybe good for the consumer and their quality of life.

    Perhaps it would be better if CNC machine tools had never have been invented? That automation was devastating to so many.
    Should we have stopped that and outlawed any import of such tech?
    Bob
    Driverless and pilotless do concern me. CNC not so much. They are safer. The elimination of jobs is always a consideration. CNC basically increased manufactured goods for the world and automation likely can have that effect for a while also.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    We can't allow driver-less cars.
    A slippery slope.
    Then comes no-driver local delivery vans...... then long haul killing 3 million+ jobs.
    All this bad for jobs as you view it but maybe good for the consumer and their quality of life.

    Perhaps it would be better if CNC machine tools had never have been invented? That automation was devastating to so many.
    Should we have stopped that and outlawed any import of such tech?
    Bob
    How does a no-driver delivery van actually deliver the package to the customer? I will say this, if I were a criminal I would target these no-driver delivery vans

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawnrs View Post
    How does a no-driver delivery van actually deliver the package to the customer? I will say this, if I were a criminal I would target these no-driver delivery vans
    YouTube

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawnrs View Post
    How does a no-driver delivery van actually deliver the package to the customer? I will say this, if I were a criminal I would target these no-driver delivery vans
    Quote Originally Posted by TeachMePlease View Post
    A dye bomb and alarm system don’t care if they get jacked.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TeachMePlease View Post
    I think the drones would be better suitable for delivering a package. That thing says tip me over all over it.

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    Yeah and someone might spray grafity all over it. First jogger that trips over it and it will need to call the ambulance.

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    I am a very late adapter to the cnc automation world. I have been in business 25 years and never owned or ran cnc. I have 13 fulltime employees and we had dedicated machines to produce our products. I resisted cnc till about 4 months ago. I bought a new lathe and mill. I payed a programmer to set up and program them and we operate them. It used to take 3 people running as hard and as fast as we could push our k and t mills to produce 100 parts in a single day. That was our record and we were truly running faster than we should and taking big risks. We set up the cnc mill to do this product, running it slow and not even trying to be efficient we produced 233 parts with one person pushing the button and doing other stuff. The parts are better and now they cost us a fraction. I can tell you what happened to all the workers they got replaced. The payment on the mill is no where near the cost of an employee. I was looking to hire more workers when a friend pulled be aside and smacked me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kpotter View Post
    I am a very late adapter to the cnc automation world. I have been in business 25 years and never owned or ran cnc. I have 13 fulltime employees and we had dedicated machines to produce our products. I resisted cnc till about 4 months ago. I bought a new lathe and mill. I payed a programmer to set up and program them and we operate them. It used to take 3 people running as hard and as fast as we could push our k and t mills to produce 100 parts in a single day. That was our record and we were truly running faster than we should and taking big risks. We set up the cnc mill to do this product, running it slow and not even trying to be efficient we produced 233 parts with one person pushing the button and doing other stuff. The parts are better and now they cost us a fraction. I can tell you what happened to all the workers they got replaced. The payment on the mill is no where near the cost of an employee. I was looking to hire more workers when a friend pulled be aside and smacked me.
    I like your story and have always respected your efforts in the past using the manual machines. I also know it is the reality of CNC Machines and what they can do and bring to any shop. I see the difference clearly over many years and concluded years ago that this is a better way and that overall people in our trade will move to shops with a job open. Manufactured goods have increased overall because of CNC and it seems employment has been catching up to the increased demand. It also lowers pay for less skilled Machinists as the high skill level does not seem to be needed because of the reliability of CNC's. CNC's are here to stay. Yes and increased automation is coming and there is no doubt.

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    I am curious since you need less machines and employees is it a consideration to utilize your existing machines if you can find work for them or is it the case that the obvious path forward is to go CNC's? It seems that changing would be the best way.

    What kind of CNC's did you decide on and have you gotten in both a mill and a lathe? This is exciting considering the great increase in quality and production plus the icing on the cake of reduction in operating costs.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    I like your story and have always respected your efforts in the past using the manual machines. I also know it is the reality of CNC Machines and what they can do and bring to any shop. I see the difference clearly over many years and concluded years ago that this is a better way and that overall people in our trade will move to shops with a job open. Manufactured goods have increased overall because of CNC and it seems employment has been catching up to the increased demand. It also lowers pay for less skilled Machinists as the high skill level does not seem to be needed because of the reliability of CNC's. CNC's are here to stay. Yes and increased automation is coming and there is no doubt.
    I would put a highly skilled person on my CNC vs a low skilled person. I want my machine to make good parts and not junk. I find it hard to train lazy and stupid on our machines, the seem to think just plop the stock in a vise or fixture and parts come out 15 minutes later. The nice thing about our CNCs are that 1 guy can maintain 2 or 3 machines at a time. We can put button one while the skilled are setting up the next machine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kpotter View Post
    I am a very late adapter to the cnc automation world. I have been in business 25 years and never owned or ran cnc. I have 13 fulltime employees and we had dedicated machines to produce our products. I resisted cnc till about 4 months ago. I bought a new lathe and mill. I payed a programmer to set up and program them and we operate them. It used to take 3 people running as hard and as fast as we could push our k and t mills to produce 100 parts in a single day. That was our record and we were truly running faster than we should and taking big risks. We set up the cnc mill to do this product, running it slow and not even trying to be efficient we produced 233 parts with one person pushing the button and doing other stuff. The parts are better and now they cost us a fraction. I can tell you what happened to all the workers they got replaced. The payment on the mill is no where near the cost of an employee. I was looking to hire more workers when a friend pulled be aside and smacked me.
    Imagine making a fixture that holds a lot of parts and loading it at night when you close the shop only to come in the next day to have them all completed.

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    That is really a worthy thing running lights out so to speak. It takes a lot of tweeking to get that just right I bet.

    I read one article which claimed that the pilot-less vehicles are the big wave for investors with a lot of money being invested into that.

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    I ran a whole months worth of parts in about 10 hours using these machines. They are running slowly so they dont make a bunch of mist and I dont have to listen to the noise. Even running slow they paid for themselves in a couple months. I could take on other work but there is no reason to deal with someone beating me up on price and breathing down my neck to finish their stuff. I used to be that guy, I got tired of begging to get work done by job shops.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kpotter View Post
    I ran a whole months worth of parts in about 10 hours using these machines. They are running slowly so they dont make a bunch of mist and I dont have to listen to the noise. Even running slow they paid for themselves in a couple months. I could take on other work but there is no reason to deal with someone beating me up on price and breathing down my neck to finish their stuff. I used to be that guy, I got tired of begging to get work done by job shops.
    Yes since you were able and willing to get the machines you discover that in your case it really has become a boom. What got you to this point is also as important. Just the pressure being off of your shoulders helps a lot.Take care of your customers and retain them is where you are and also you now have all of this potential for growth before you.

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    Automation has marched forward and will continue as long as it is a sustainable investment. Displaced workers must find where they can find a new way to earn a income. The American dream is much effected to the extent that generations of Americans since 1940 are said to be in decline.

    Article also says that the word Luck is increasingly used today in connection with the American dream.

    Is the American dream really dead?

    It is scary when we see that local government will have to give massive tax breaks to attract jobs to a area. What is bad is with money given in tax cuts becomes much more cost than benefit and so the agreement is a huge loss for local government to have money to provide needed services we expect from government.

    Some have made the point that these kinds of incentives should be outlawed. That might mean that such Tax breaks and subsidy from government has become a losing arrangement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    Automation has marched forward and will continue as long as it is a sustainable investment. Displaced workers must find where they can find a new way to earn a income. The American dream is much effected to the extent that generations of Americans since 1940 are said to be in decline.

    Article also says that the word Luck is increasingly used today in connection with the American dream.

    Is the American dream really dead?

    It is scary when we see that local government will have to give massive tax breaks to attract jobs to a area. What is bad is with money given in tax cuts becomes much more cost than benefit and so the agreement is a huge loss for local government to have money to provide needed services we expect from government.

    Some have made the point that these kinds of incentives should be outlawed. That might mean that such Tax breaks and subsidy from government has become a losing arrangement.
    It has to be amicable for both sides. Do some cities give the farm away on some deals, most likely...this is betting on other companies to come for lesser breaks. Around here this takes place in the worst areas like Newark, Patterson, Irvington, and the like. Don't hear about it much near me.

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    I can not blame them really unless it costs way too high to have that arrangement. Taxes vary place to place anyway and the costs of things are different also in different areas. Before even negotiating with a large employer a city may have advantages before any negotiations take place.


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