hanermo
Titanium
- Joined
- Sep 28, 2009
- Location
- barcelona, spain
1.
My first post lays out things as they are, facts, generally accepted.
I am asking for comments, opinions, observations.
What do You guys think will happen ?
2.
My second post is my observations, comments, opinions.
It has major implications for all of use.
I think.
Moderator - (B)EVs are the major growth industry in the USA and globally, and the major new manufacturing industry.
If this is not appropriate, delete thread.
Facts, generally consensus.
Today, Tesla is the world leader in BEV or Battery Electric Vehicles, of good quality and performance, quantified as compelling.
Ie they are really good cars.
Tesla also has many technical and market driven risks and risks they have chosen to adopt.
Tesla produced about 80.000 cars, 2016, and 4 years of 50% y/y growth.
USA total sales about 120.000 NEVs, 2016, == 1%.
BYD in china is the global leader in nr of electric and hybrid cars made, collectively NEVs or New Energy Vehicles.
China about 440.000 NEVs sold, 2016, vs 120k or so 2015, near 270% growth.
Globally, about 1-2% of all new cars are NEVs, and the trend has grown about 100% every 12-18 months, last 4-5-6 years.
Everywhere a NEV is possible.
So a gulf state (or say malaysia, 0.15$/l gas, 8 times cheaper) with free (near free) gas is not really a good comparison, nor south america with no money or weak infrastructure and no NEV sales outlets, nor russia in siberia with -20C for a long time.
Globally, cars are heavily taxed. Fuel is heavily taxed. Avg gas cost is == 6$/gallon.
Avg power cost is 4 cents/kWh, nighttime.
Nighttime electricity, or excess (nuke, wind, PV) electricity is getting cheaper and more abundant.
About 98% of global new energy installations 2016++ are PV and wind, avg 4 cents/kWh PPA to utility, and free to users when they have excess capacity. Thus is makes sense for all utilities to grab any revenue they can, from BEV use, and the use is growing very rapidly.
The power use by BEVs from utilities will become significant in 1-2-3 years.
Today it is still immaterial except 1-2 markets like Norway.
Electricity for power for BEVs vs gas is about 5-7(-3, -2)) times cheaper for the economy, or technically for the user, today.
Depends on what You measure, and where You pick Your numbers from.
All power use globally, for mobility ie cars and vans and local delivery trucks, could be electric, on todays electric grids.
Ie global grid capacity, national capacity in any OECD country, is everywhere greater than total mobility needs at approx 200Wh/km.
A Tesla Model S, very heavy + high end big car, uses 260W/km.
A small (oldish, unefficient in .cd) EV uses 160 W/km or less.
At 200W/km, total energy use would be less than 30% of current total use, and more than spare grid capacity integrated overall.
The US, and China, are at about 1% of all new NEVs in new vehicles sold.
This doubled historically 12-18 months, and will likely accelerate Very Soon Now.
Ie in months, or a year, or so.
It will accelerate, in my opinion, because the first good stuff EVs with cheap batteries is coming within 12 months more or less.
And because the first BEVs with real powerful motors, come out now 2017 or 2018.
Spain is at 2.x %, Norway over 10% iirc.
For 2016, last year.
My first post lays out things as they are, facts, generally accepted.
I am asking for comments, opinions, observations.
What do You guys think will happen ?
2.
My second post is my observations, comments, opinions.
It has major implications for all of use.
I think.
Moderator - (B)EVs are the major growth industry in the USA and globally, and the major new manufacturing industry.
If this is not appropriate, delete thread.
Facts, generally consensus.
Today, Tesla is the world leader in BEV or Battery Electric Vehicles, of good quality and performance, quantified as compelling.
Ie they are really good cars.
Tesla also has many technical and market driven risks and risks they have chosen to adopt.
Tesla produced about 80.000 cars, 2016, and 4 years of 50% y/y growth.
USA total sales about 120.000 NEVs, 2016, == 1%.
BYD in china is the global leader in nr of electric and hybrid cars made, collectively NEVs or New Energy Vehicles.
China about 440.000 NEVs sold, 2016, vs 120k or so 2015, near 270% growth.
Globally, about 1-2% of all new cars are NEVs, and the trend has grown about 100% every 12-18 months, last 4-5-6 years.
Everywhere a NEV is possible.
So a gulf state (or say malaysia, 0.15$/l gas, 8 times cheaper) with free (near free) gas is not really a good comparison, nor south america with no money or weak infrastructure and no NEV sales outlets, nor russia in siberia with -20C for a long time.
Globally, cars are heavily taxed. Fuel is heavily taxed. Avg gas cost is == 6$/gallon.
Avg power cost is 4 cents/kWh, nighttime.
Nighttime electricity, or excess (nuke, wind, PV) electricity is getting cheaper and more abundant.
About 98% of global new energy installations 2016++ are PV and wind, avg 4 cents/kWh PPA to utility, and free to users when they have excess capacity. Thus is makes sense for all utilities to grab any revenue they can, from BEV use, and the use is growing very rapidly.
The power use by BEVs from utilities will become significant in 1-2-3 years.
Today it is still immaterial except 1-2 markets like Norway.
Electricity for power for BEVs vs gas is about 5-7(-3, -2)) times cheaper for the economy, or technically for the user, today.
Depends on what You measure, and where You pick Your numbers from.
All power use globally, for mobility ie cars and vans and local delivery trucks, could be electric, on todays electric grids.
Ie global grid capacity, national capacity in any OECD country, is everywhere greater than total mobility needs at approx 200Wh/km.
A Tesla Model S, very heavy + high end big car, uses 260W/km.
A small (oldish, unefficient in .cd) EV uses 160 W/km or less.
At 200W/km, total energy use would be less than 30% of current total use, and more than spare grid capacity integrated overall.
The US, and China, are at about 1% of all new NEVs in new vehicles sold.
This doubled historically 12-18 months, and will likely accelerate Very Soon Now.
Ie in months, or a year, or so.
It will accelerate, in my opinion, because the first good stuff EVs with cheap batteries is coming within 12 months more or less.
And because the first BEVs with real powerful motors, come out now 2017 or 2018.
Spain is at 2.x %, Norway over 10% iirc.
For 2016, last year.