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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    Agree we likely will all/most be driving EVs in the near future but thinking it will be free or even much lower priced when all true costs are added is just stupid, people are just kidding themselves or being hoodwinked..
    and money to pay for the incentives...where does free come from?
    I dispute the notion that "we likely will all/most be driving EVs in the near future". Most of the people I know have no desire to own one and no plans to own one in the foreseeable future unless we reach a state where the control freaks legislate conventional vehicles out of existence.

    While some day the technology may reach a level where an un-subsidized BEV may be the more attractive and practical option to an IC-engined vehicle I suspect that time is at least several decades into the future.

    In the meantime certain "eco-warriors" who themselves choose not to own one try to shame and bully the rest of us into buying one. Apparently they feel if they can convince enough of us, they have done their bit for the planet and can continue driving what they want as reward for good deed done.

    They are no different than those who try to shame and bully the rest of us into giving up personal vehicles in favor of walking, bicycling, and public transportation while they continue to jet around the globe preaching the climate change gospel.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    I dispute the notion that "we likely will all/most be driving EVs in the near future". Most of the people I know have no desire to own one and no plans to own one in the foreseeable future unless we reach a state where the control freaks legislate conventional vehicles out of existence.

    While some day the technology may reach a level where an un-subsidized BEV may be the more attractive and practical option to an IC-engined vehicle I suspect that time is at least several decades into the future.

    In the meantime certain "eco-warriors" who themselves choose not to own one try to shame and bully the rest of us into buying one. Apparently they feel if they can convince enough of us, they have done their bit for the planet and can continue driving what they want as reward for good deed done.

    They are no different than those who try to shame and bully the rest of us into giving up personal vehicles in favor of walking, bicycling, and public transportation while they continue to jet around the globe preaching the climate change gospel.
    Eggzachary....all the participants that travel to all those "global warming summit meetings" don't travel by EV learjets....

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  5. #343
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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    I see a lot of smoke and mirrors in many of such reports. The potential of wind is much lower when one considers how many wind turbines are facing the wind and how many are not, how many are down, how often the wind does not blow, The projected cost of gas pricing over so many years, tax credits for wind....
    Better would be the output of a wind farm over the total costs.. not the one device.

    Re: QT [trumpski is just as lying and corrupt as he has been for the last 40 years]

    Another thing, I don't like or not like Trump but to be sensible one has to rate what good and what bad he has done for the country ..not how much one likes him.. just more smoke and mirrors.

    Like some don't/did not like Obama because he is black or don't like Bill Clinton because he can't keep his zipper closed. People not weighing the facts like this is very common..
    SO because inside your head there are doubts, they are more valid and a bunch of research, oh and like facts about what corporations are actually paying for wind power

    According to the links, which you have not refuted the validity of, wind is now cheaper than gas powered electricity.

    YOur imagined issues must be backed up by facts, preferably not 5 year old opinion pieces

  6. #344
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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    likely natural gas is the lowest cost/cheaper energy in the USA. if tax money was not being used to support free stuff.

    Burning 100 dollar bills in the wood stove would be the lowest cost energy if the grubberment would give me $200 for every 100 dollars I burned.
    It's worse than that. The true cost of wind power (and solar) should also include the costs of spinning reserves, which are natural gas powered turbines that pick up the slack. Wind turbines only operate efficiently in a range of speeds that typically doesn't vary more than about 20 mph. Too slow and very little electricity is produced. Too high, as in a severe storm and the blades must be feathered to prevent damage.

    One dirty accounting trick used by many wind advocates is to count the cost of the spinning reserves as costs of natural gas generation, which artificially raises that cost while making wind appear lower.

    The same holds true for solar, which only produces useful power for a small part of any 24 hour period with peak power typically between 9 AM and 3 PM. If you've ever seen a graph of unbuffered solar panel output it roughly resembles a cross section of a hemisphere with the first activity above the zero line beginning at sunrise and returning to zero at sunset. During peak hours there are often downward spikes that resemble stalactites in a cavern. These are caused by passing clouds.

    Turbines are expensive to build, install, and maintain. The maintenance workers have been nicknamed "turbine cowboys" and they get paid a premium for working in a harness at great height. When the blades reach the end of their life they are usually cut into trailerable lengths and hauled to a burial site because they are extremely difficult to recycle.

    This article explains the actual output of a turbine vs the rated capacity.

    How Much Power Does a Wind Turbine Generate? | Sciencing

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    I dispute the notion that "we likely will all/most be driving EVs in the near future". Most of the people I know have no desire to own one and no plans to own one in the foreseeable future unless we reach a state where the control freaks legislate conventional vehicles out of existence.
    I'll start of by stating I've no intention of buying an EV in the near future.

    OTOH re EVs then some places (countries) they are both relevant and necessary. In the cities in China taxi EVs dominate. China is very much investing in and making EVs. Be nice if India did the same although they are starting. Probably the USA is the country where least use trains and buses for transport.

    The question is how much US auto companies want to sell outside the USA.

    The number of electric vehicles on the road around the world will hit 125 million by 2030, the International Energy Agency forecasts. The world's fleet of electric vehicles grew 54 percent to about 3.1 million in 2017. The IEA says government policy will continue to be the linchpin for electric vehicle adoption. May 30, 2018

    I don't believe that most of the climate change is because of humans but it is changing for the worse. Not doing anything when possible is just sticking your head in the sand. What many of the "fanatics" suggest just isn't reasonable or feasible.

    Category:Climate change by country - Wikipedia

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    ....
    Agree we likely will all/most be driving EVs in the near future....
    Depends on who you include in all and how you define near future.
    The USA is only 5% of the world population and the working and practicality of EVs as transportation is different around the globe.
    Even inside the US it varies widely.
    Dense population centers do not need the distances that the mid-west or even more open west places do. I've known people in New York who don't even own a car.
    Then in many places on the very west coast everything is also close.
    Grocery getter runs, kids to school and soccer practice, the run to Home Depot for part to fix your water heater, go get some fast food, the dentist or doctor.
    All that everyday life that needs transport further than walking distance but is really not that far away.

    These things are coming and Tesla did push it forward by so many years.
    China may indeed be ahead of us on this curve as they pack people in tighter per square mile than we do and air quality beings to look like the old LA smog.
    Yes, Detroit to Copper Harbor with your trailer is gas or diesel, but Detroit to say your lot in Kentucky... maybe EV works even in a T truck and the new ones coming soon.

    Charging stations, the number of them and how many plugs are simply consumer demand. If your customers are waiting line you will add capacity.
    Old gas stations used to have two or maybe three pumps, six at the big guys. This was the norm. How many now at the place you buy gas at? Count em.

    On the definition of "near future" I think we are 20-30 out but time passes fast.
    Personally as a builder in the ICE world of powertrains I think it all blows but the world is changing. Buggy whips come to mind.
    Bob

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    The close to home driving with perhaps 50 or 100 miles a day an EV might be fine...yes with having a second car for vacations and long travel.

    But when incentives are gone and road tax is added the numbers will change.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    SO because inside your head there are doubts, they are more valid and a bunch of research, oh and like facts about what corporations are actually paying for wind power

    According to the links, which you have not refuted the validity of, wind is now cheaper than gas powered electricity.

    YOur imagined issues must be backed up by facts, preferably not 5 year old opinion pieces
    Did you actually read the article? If you crunch the numbers and dig into the report, the $.02 is what the power companies are paying the windpower producers. That is not there true cost of production.

    If you dig into this, the $.02/kwhr is the price that all grid consumers receive for power production being put back onto the grid.

    If you also dig into the generating capacity vs. power consumed, using 2017 numbers as they are the latest available, you end up with a 35% utilization of the windpower generating capacity.

    The article does not say this but if you read between the lines, we are installing windpower generating capacity that is being artificially subsidized by tax advantages. Debating the use of tax credits to stimulate the development of a desired technology is a separate discussion but the path that we are on is that we are installing windpower capacity at a cost below true production costs. This will lead to an oversupply of windpower generating capacity which in the long term will be detrimental to the consumer and to the overall technology.

    Yes, windpower has an important place in energy production however with the current technologies that are in place, there is a total windpower energy capacity aggregate that the grid can utilize. At some point, adding more windpower will not actually add to the generating capacity of the grid and I suspect that we are close to it now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    ....

    Yes, windpower has an important place in energy production however with the current technologies that are in place, there is a total windpower energy capacity aggregate that the grid can utilize. At some point, adding more windpower will not actually add to the generating capacity of the grid and I suspect that we are close to it now.
    I don't understand this. You are saying that we generate more electric power than is needed for the demand in the US and add on ones here are a waste?
    I get the whole sub paid or local requirements to have have a percentage of such.
    Kinda of not a fair playing field but it could it be future seeing?
    Once there was no interstate highway system. Then money in big tax breaks and other poured in for no sense. Yet it seemed to work out.
    You post on the internet, a dream government funded as a not needed?
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    I don't understand this. You are saying that we generate more electric power than is needed for the demand in the US and add on ones here are a waste?
    I get the whole sub paid or local requirements to have have a percentage of such.
    Kinda of not a fair playing field but it could it be future seeing?
    Once there was no interstate highway system. Then money in big tax breaks and other poured in for no sense. Yet it seemed to work out.
    You post on the internet, a dream government funded as a not needed?
    Bob
    I think what he was alluding to is the issue of adding more generating capacity that is intermittent in nature to our current grid system which is based on a demand model.

    In a demand based model enough generating capacity is built to accommodate peak loads and when demand drops they are "throttled down" to deal with the reduced load.

    With sources like solar and wind output is largely dependent on nature and may peak during times of reduced demand and vice versa. This creates several problems for grid operators that must be dealt with. Per ANSI C84.1 voltage tolerances fall into two tolerance ranges, Range A and Range B. Range A is expected to be normally held to a service voltage range of +/-5% of nominal while range B is expected to be normally held to a service voltage range of +6%/-13% of nominal.

    If available output from alternatives is reduced below needs the reserve generators must supply the difference, but if you have too great a capacity of alternatives AND they produce excess power during periods of low demand you have a real problem. You can't just "vent" excess electricity the way you can with gasses so once that excess power is on the grid it must be dissipated in loads or you risk over-voltages that can damage equipment.

    Industry insiders are very open about the future need to convert the grid from demand based to supply based if we add more of these intermittent sources to our electric system. The current plan is to have all appliances networked over wifi as part of "the internet of things" so the utility can remotely control appliances during periods of mismatch between generated power and demand. During periods of low demand they will be able to turn off things like washers and dryers (and probably EV chargers) to reduce the load. What I have not heard anyone yet state is the other side of the coin which is that in periods of excess power generation they likely will have to remotely turn on high current appliances to absorb some of the excess. I am amazed at how few people seem aware that this is the future if we are actually able to go "zero carbon". I don't think most people would be too happy living under a supply based electrical system once they experienced the reality of it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    [
    .
    Better grid management also helped the economics of wind. At times, strong winds can cause wind farms to produce an excess of power relative to demand, causing a farm's output to be reduced. This process, called curtailment, remained a small factor, with only 2% of the potential generation lost this way. Put differently, if the curtailed electricity had been used, it would have only raised the average capacity factor by 0.7 percentage points
    quoting myself because, as usual ditto heads cannot read

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    And again, notice, all the verbiage pretending to respond to me comes out of right wing brain buckets, no outside corroboration, just limited knowledge of tiny pieces of information

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    Did you actually read the article? If you crunch the numbers and dig into the report, the $.02 is what the power companies are paying the windpower producers. That is not there true cost of production.

    If you dig into this, the $.02/kwhr is the price that all grid consumers receive for power production being put back onto the grid.

    If you also dig into the generating capacity vs. power consumed, using 2017 numbers as they are the latest available, you end up with a 35% utilization of the windpower generating capacity.

    The article does not say this but if you read between the lines, we are installing windpower generating capacity that is being artificially subsidized by tax advantages. Debating the use of tax credits to stimulate the development of a desired technology is a separate discussion but the path that we are on is that we are installing windpower capacity at a cost below true production costs. This will lead to an oversupply of windpower generating capacity which in the long term will be detrimental to the consumer and to the overall technology.

    Yes, windpower has an important place in energy production however with the current technologies that are in place, there is a total windpower energy capacity aggregate that the grid can utilize. At some point, adding more windpower will not actually add to the generating capacity of the grid and I suspect that we are close to it now.
    I live in a country that has as many more fanatic pro wind turbines for energy folk as there are vegans wanting all to stop eating meat. Both groups live in Fantasyland.

    What is interesting is that the most pro turbine folk live in cities and the most anti turbine folk are in the open areas where turbines are erected.

    More to the point is that without some form of subsidy turbines aren't yet profitable. We have electricity taxes that make the electricity produced by wind turbines look more economic than they in fact are.

    Wind power in Denmark - Wikipedia

    Personally I have nothing against wind turbines -AS LONG AS I DON'T LIVE WHERE I CAN SEE OR HEAR ONE.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Personally I have nothing against wind turbines -AS LONG AS I DON'T LIVE WHERE I CAN SEE OR HEAR ONE.
    That's part of why Texas has so much wind power. We have a large area where essentially nobody lives, and of course the few people who do live there get no say because they're just dumb hicks, not like the perfectly educated gustafson from whom all knowledge flows.

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    Dont think battery EV is a done deal ...big forces are pushing liquid fuel EV using a commodity home solar cant do ,and can be controlled by the same corporations and networks that do liquid fuels today....You might be surprised that the Frank Whittle team had a jet turbine engine running on ammonia in 1939,work cancelled for the demands of the RAF and WW2.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CAMasochism View Post
    That's part of why Texas has so much wind power. We have a large area where essentially nobody lives, and of course the few people who do live there get no say because they're just dumb hicks, not like the perfectly educated gustafson from whom all knowledge flows.
    I know you're being sarcastic but if I didn't know that it looks as if you're giving gustafson a huge compliment.

    We have our fair share of "dumb hicks" but they do have a say and have now and they've managed to get wind turbines moved from their original destination. The problem with "democracy" though is that there are more city idiots than dumb hicks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CAMasochism View Post
    That's part of why Texas has so much wind power. We have a large area where essentially nobody lives, and of course the few people who do live there get no say because they're just dumb hicks, not like the perfectly educated gustafson from whom all knowledge flows.
    ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    OH, wait, did he have a point, or a fact, oh uhh, as usual no

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    Today California modified the tax breaks for electrci cars. maximum cost is $50,000 to get a $2,000 tax write off. used to be $2,500. maximum income is roughly $60,000. For ev's they must have a range of at least 50 miles on battery only.
    Bill D

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill D View Post
    Today California modified the tax breaks for electrci cars. maximum cost is $50,000 to get a $2,000 tax write off. used to be $2,500. maximum income is roughly $60,000. For ev's they must have a range of at least 50 miles on battery only.
    Bill D
    Max income of 60K in California? I know there are different parts of the state but I'd think this to be rather small in people that could use it.
    A feel good deal ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    I dispute the notion that "we likely will all/most be driving EVs in the near future".

    While some day the technology may reach a level where an un-subsidized BEV may be the more attractive and practical option to an IC-engined vehicle I suspect that time is at least several decades into the future.
    C'mon over, captain. I'll even put you up for a week or so.

    The day is already here. We're 100% electric on small stuff and from observation about 30% electric on cars and growing. Works fine.

    I gettit that you don't want to change and fine by me if you don't. But think of this a second - if the US sticks to ic engines then you'll be going farther and farther behind in experience related to what the rest of the world will be using. That ain't gonna be good for your auto industry.

    Stick to them buggy whips, eh ? It'll all turn out fine in the end ?

    I prefer steam, myself, but too bad



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