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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Well, in the case of China, which is the biggest imbalance, this is not going to work. Therefore, it is stupid.
    Then the tariffs stay on. If they don't want to give in because of the Asian "losing face" or whatever for what are really legitimate issues regarding them having developing nation status in a lot of things or just flat out having a level-playing field, then they can continue to reap the losses. For all the talk about US farmers or whatever, very little has actually happened. Soybeans in price have not really had any huge movement relative to the past, and farming was already in the doldrums before this all began. China, on the other hand, has a lot more in terms of its exports because of the surplus it runs, but I don't think it really matters much in the grand scheme of things either way. Trade just goes from one country to another, Chinese steel and other goods go to other countries, etc. They're more reliant on exports in their economy than the US is, though, so that's also not good.

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    For last year, the US exports were about 12% of GDP, at about $2.5 Trillion
    and
    The Chinese exports were around 18% of GDP, at about $4.5 Trillion.

    but only a pretty small fraction of the Chinese exports were to the USA- $1.6 Trillion or so-about 20% of their exports- which means 80% of their exports are not affected by the tariffs.

    So I am not sure how "reliant" they are on us. Sure, they like us buying stuff- and we have continued to do so, even thru the tariffs, though our orders have dropped. But WE are paying the tariffs, not them. And we are losing the exports, which isnt a great thing.

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    The number I see is 19.5, not 18. So they're a little over 60% more reliant on exports for their economy, if measured by GDP. 60% is a big number juxtaposed against the US's position, especially when you run a huge trade surplus in goods with the US. They were, and still are, selling us around 4x what we sell them, and while manufacturing employs not quite 8% of our workforce as of last year, theirs was 26% in 2017.

    Like I said before, I don't really believe either side is going to be heavily, heavily impacted, but if you want to pick a side that has more economically to lose, it's very hard to make a case that China isn't the one in that position.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    But WE are paying the tariffs, not them
    Meh. I don't see inflation, do you? The reality is that we are paying part of it, some more than others, but they are paying most of it. There's been some studies done, and there's been articles written by importers, and I can link you, but I really don't like it when people get into the flinging articles thing, so I won't unless you're curious. The gist of it is that they are paying most of the tariffs through lower profits, lower prices for export, losing sourcing altogether, weaker yuan, etc. If we were all actually "paying" for it at retail, you'd see it in inflation. Yet it isn't there. Just in case you reply with anecdotes - yes, I know that some things went up in price. But everything did not go up 10-25% that is imported from China, yet that is just about where we're at right now and have been for a while.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    ... while manufacturing employs not quite 8% of our workforce as of last year, theirs was 26% in 2017.
    That's because the US doesn't make shit anymore, we just buy low sell high.

    But if you can't buy low, then the sell high part gets kinda crippled .... US is dependent on retail now, China on manufacturing. They go hand in hand

    Like I said before, I don't really believe either side is going to be heavily, heavily impacted, but if you want to pick a side that has more economically to lose, it's very hard to make a case that China isn't the one in that position.
    I don't see this happening for a few reasons.

    1) Chinese people are nowhere near as indebted as US people. They don't even buy cars on credit, and houses usually get paid off in ten years-ish. And the banks belong to the government anyhow, so they can do whatever they want. So-called money is just paper.

    Chinese companies are not as indebted. They often pay cash for machines, not run to the bank. Yes, old-fashioned but when things turn down, you aren't fucked.

    If you don't owe much, you can take a much bigger hit on the income side.

    2) You mentioned China is "paying for it" because they dropped the exchange rate. I think that was to discourage imports. Discouraging imports encourages local consumption. China has something like 800 million peasants who have nothing but a cell phone and a teevee. Plenty of room there to redirect mfg output. Plus they also have the rest of the world. Lots of places will be encouraged to buy from China because[ of this animosity from the US. Iran, for instance. Lots of oil, China has none. Lots of countries won't deal with Iran because of US extortion. Marriage made in heaven.

    China did bootstrap itself with US buying. But now .... I am not so sure they will continue. If it comes, fine but they don't really need the US like they did twenty years ago. It's like a seventeen year old kid. Mom and Dad think they still control things but ... maybe, maybe not.

    3) Last but not least, the China government is in full control. They can do things the US government cannot. All the US can do is "try to encourage X, Y, and Z by cutting taxes" or maybe coming up with some other "encouragement". China government just does it. There's a three block long subway being built in SF. It's been 'being built' for five years or more. Every time we come over the girlfriend laughs. "STILL not done ?" Shanghai built eleven subways dozens of miles long in that time. California is suposedly building a (semi) high speed train between SF and LA. Ten years ago they started. Still nothing. In that same time China built tens of thousands of miles of 200 mph rail, and it's all working. The trains are pretty nice, better than air travel imo.

    There's advantages to the China system. (DIsadvantages too, but I'm just pointing out that you can't assume what's true for poppa bear is going to also be true for momma bear.) Because something is one way in the US, you can't just depend on it being the same in China. Things work different. It's quite possible that these tariffs will have an entirely different effect on China than expected.

    Plus, as a 2500 year old country, they are prepared to wait another five years until the Trump is gone. Xi is president for life, as PeteM keeps telling me

    (I think he's actually just president until he gets tired of it, but anyway ....)

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I don't see this happening for a few reasons.

    1) Chinese people are nowhere near as indebted as US people. They don't even buy cars on credit, and houses usually get paid off in ten years-ish. And the banks belong to the government anyhow, so they can do whatever they want. So-called money is just paper.

    Chinese companies are not as indebted....If you don't owe much, you can take a much bigger hit on the income side.
    You sure about that?

    https://www.merics.org/sites/default..._exhibit-2.jpg

    Looks like more corporate debt than the US to me. Not to mention that if you combine all the diff types of debt now, because that graph is from 2017, they are over 300% of GDP in total. There's been an astronomic rise in debt in China.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    2) You mentioned China is "paying for it" because they dropped the exchange rate.
    I don't know that they did drop it as much as they may have just allowed it to drop.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I think that was to discourage imports. Discouraging imports encourages local consumption. China has something like 800 million peasants who have nothing but a cell phone and a teevee. Plenty of room there to redirect mfg output. Plus they also have the rest of the world. Lots of places will be encouraged to buy from China because[ of this animosity from the US. Iran, for instance. Lots of oil, China has none. Lots of countries won't deal with Iran because of US extortion. Marriage made in heaven.
    Actually, China is one of the largest producers of oil in the world. They are just a net importer. They produce even more oil than Iran does.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    China did bootstrap itself with US buying. But now .... I am not so sure they will continue. If it comes, fine but they don't really need the US like they did twenty years ago. It's like a seventeen year old kid. Mom and Dad think they still control things but ... maybe, maybe not.
    I don't think the US really needs China so much anymore, either. For the few things we have trouble sourcing elsewhere, we will continue to buy, just as China will continue to buy, or will just shift trade flows around from one country to another if they don't.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    3) Last but not least, the China government is in full control. They can do things the US government cannot. All the US can do is "try to encourage X, Y, and Z by cutting taxes" or maybe coming up with some other "encouragement". China government just does it. There's a three block long subway being built in SF. It's been 'being built' for five years or more. Every time we come over the girlfriend laughs. "STILL not done ?" Shanghai built eleven subways dozens of miles long in that time. California is suposedly building a (semi) high speed train between SF and LA. Ten years ago they started. Still nothing. In that same time China built tens of thousands of miles of 200 mph rail, and it's all working. The trains are pretty nice, better than air travel imo.
    And losing money - re: rail. I don't really see how any of that pertains to them being hurt by tariffs. That is something they do not have control over: what the US or other countries do.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    There's advantages to the China system. (DIsadvantages too, but I'm just pointing out that you can't assume what's true for poppa bear is going to also be true for momma bear.) Because something is one way in the US, you can't just depend on it being the same in China. Things work different. It's quite possible that these tariffs will have an entirely different effect on China than expected.
    I get that. I've never said it's the same. I know other countries work differently - I've lived overseas.

    We've visited this before. You're a China bull, I'm a China skeptic. I still don't see the case where the economic effects are not felt there more than here. The numbers just do not add up.

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    I came a bit late to the thread,

    I Listened to this podcast recently. basically what ya'll talking about.

    Unraveling The Mystery Behind International Shipping Rates : NPR

    Wish i could get cheap shipping here. packages via zim post don't normally arrive, but DHL & Fedex do.

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    [QUOTE=nyc123;3420919]You sure about that?

    https://www.merics.org/sites/default..._exhibit-2.jpg[/qote]
    Yes, I'm sure. I was around for the triangle schemes, too. I've read so many of these western finance magazine doom and gloom articles that never became true that it's just a joke now. It's all crap. Meaningless crap. Never happens. Boy who cried wolf.

    Hot air.

    Further, the whole "economy" thing is nothing but a fantasy. Smoke and mirrors, just a bunch of gobbledygook. Economics has nothing whatsoever to do with quality of life. You can measure how many cars are registered and how many teevees in each household but you can't determine if a country is worth living in or not. Money really has little to do with it.

    Actually, China is one of the largest producers of oil in the world. They are just a net importer. They produce even more oil than Iran does.
    Incompetent, irrelevant, and immaterial Way down the list, fifth or sixth or something but more to the point, it's way not enough. They import a ton of oil. Hence, buy from Iran, in exchange for manufactured goods. For an example, not claiming they do but it would make sense. The more the Trump hassles them, the closer they will get to Iran. Good idea, Donald.

    I don't think the US really needs China so much anymore, either. For the few things we have trouble sourcing elsewhere, we will continue to buy, just as China will continue to buy, or will just shift trade flows around from one country to another if they don't.
    I guess you haven't been to a store in a long time ... fifty billion dollars a month of manufactured stuff, you remind me of some bean-counters who think manufacturing plants grow on trees.

    I don't really see how any of that pertains to them being hurt by tariffs. That is something they do not have control over: what the US or other countries do.
    Meant to illustrate that they do have control over what they themselves do. US does not. That's a big advantage.

    We've visited this before. You're a China bull, I'm a China skeptic. I still don't see the case where the economic effects are not felt there more than here. The numbers just do not add up.
    I'm not a "bull", I am a realist. China has managed to become the world's factory over the past thirty years, while the US created CDO's and caused a giant world-wide depression (that pretty much left China unscathed, because unlike Deutschebank and London, they didn't buy CDO's).

    btw, as an example, that depression elsewhere hit China exports harder than these tariffs will yet they survived fine.

    Anyone who is impartial is going to see that China handles things better than the US. Over the past twenty years the US has pretty well destroyed its image, while most of the rest of the world thinks China has done pretty good. You've got a serious case of confirmation bias going there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Yes, I'm sure. I was around for the triangle schemes, too. I've read so many of these western finance magazine doom and gloom articles that never became true that it's just a joke now. It's all crap. Meaningless crap. Never happens. Boy who cried wolf.

    Hot air.
    Hold on. Stop. This is not finance doom and gloom. This is a fact borne out by statistics. That was a graph of statistics. They have more corporate debt than in the US. What you said was incorrect. So going by the rest of what you said regarding debt and income, Chinese companies are in a worse position.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Further, the whole "economy" thing is nothing but a fantasy. Smoke and mirrors, just a bunch of gobbledygook. Economics has nothing whatsoever to do with quality of life. You can measure how many cars are registered and how many teevees in each household but you can't determine if a country is worth living in or not. Money really has little to do with it.
    That quote is so wrong I don't even know where to start. If you're saying you can't just measure with GDP, then yeah, ok, sure. But saying money has nothing to do with it and economics has nothing to do with quality of life makes zero sense. It absolutely does. Without money, you won't have a high standard of living, which is the measuring stick most people use.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Incompetent, irrelevant, and immaterial Way down the list, fifth or sixth or something but more to the point, it's way not enough. They import a ton of oil. Hence, buy from Iran, in exchange for manufactured goods. For an example, not claiming they do but it would make sense. The more the Trump hassles them, the closer they will get to Iran. Good idea, Donald.
    I think you're just trying to dodge being wrong there. Being the fifth largest oil producer in the world is huge. There's 192 countries out there. That's fifth out of 192. That is in no way, shape, or form, "way down the list". You just got that wrong.

    Ok, sure, let them do that. Then they get sanctioned. Brilliant move. It's a dollar world, and it isn't looking like it's going to be a renminbi world any time soon like they want.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I guess you haven't been to a store in a long time ... fifty billion dollars a month of manufactured stuff, you remind me of some bean-counters who think manufacturing plants grow on trees.
    China isn't the only country in the world that can produce goods. Did you not know that?

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Meant to illustrate that they do have control over what they themselves do. US does not. That's a big advantage.
    You need to explain what they can do that they have control over to simply negate all those effects of the tariffs, not just say "well they can do what they want".

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I'm not a "bull", I am a realist.
    There you go way overconfident about what is an opinion. You're not a realist, you're an opinionist, same as me or anyone else. Get over yourself.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    China has managed to become the world's factory over the past thirty years, while the US created CDO's and caused a giant world-wide depression (that pretty much left China unscathed, because unlike Deutschebank and London, they didn't buy CDO's).
    Actually, they weren't unscathed. That is incorrect. They ramped up public spending to make up for the loss in activity from the private sector. Massively. Like us. Their bailout/stimulus package was about the same amount as ours. While they maybe didn't have CDO's, that speaks nothing to the problem of recessions in all those markets they are exporting to. They also lowered reserve requirements and interest rates - i.e. printing money.
    A lot of it. That led to a boom of debt.
    For someone who talks a lot about China, you get a ton of things wrong over and over again about the country. A policy response being effective vs "being unscathed" are two different things.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    btw, as an example, that depression elsewhere hit China exports harder than these tariffs will yet they survived fine.
    You don't read what I write, obviously. I said more than once that I don't see it having a huge, huge impact on either one. Go back. Re-read. Slowly.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Anyone who is impartial is going to see that China handles things better than the US.
    meh. Handles things in what sense? I don't know that that's really the case, nor that "anyone who is impartial" would agree with that. You don't just get to say anyone who disagrees with you isn't being objective.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Over the past twenty years the US has pretty well destroyed its image, while most of the rest of the world thinks China has done pretty good. You've got a serious case of confirmation bias going there.
    I'm not so sure about that. There's plenty of anti-China rhetoric going around the developing world. Lots of countries are split on the issue. Naughty tourists don't help, either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    Hold on. Stop. This is not finance doom and gloom. This is a fact borne out by statistics.
    That's your problem right there. No one can believe "statistics" from China. They lie from bottom to top. I've seen it in action. The bottom lies to make themselves look good to their bosses, the top lies to make averything pretty on teevee, or for other reasons (to make themselves look poor to the WTO ?)This is the real reason google will never have a presence in China.

    You cannot believe statistics from or about China.

    Further, "debt" in China is much more meaningless than in the US. Research the triangle schemes. When the big "companies" are all branches of the government, and the government owns the banks, their version of debt is taking from the left pocket to put it in the right. Nobody reposseses a factory when the same guy who owns the factory owns the debt. He just changes the ceo and moves some numbers around.

    From personal experiece, people do not finance cars from the bank. They usually use a bank to finance a small portion of a house. Big down payments, most of the money comes from family. Whether they can continue to do that is unknown. But as of this moment, with the tariffs under discussion, debt in China is not a factor. Little companies can't get a loan so they don't have them, big companies are owned by the government.

    But saying money has nothing to do with it and economics has nothing to do with quality of life makes zero sense. It absolutely does. Without money, you won't have a high standard of living, which is the measuring stick most people use.
    Most people are stupid fucks. They actually believe a new pickup truck will make them happy.

    I think you're just trying to dodge being wrong there. Being the fifth largest oil producer in the world is huge.
    Okay fine, they are HUGELY BIG oil producers.

    But they still need to import lots, which means that Iran wouold be a good trading partner. Iran has oil, China makes stuff. Good deal, let's swap.

    Ok, sure, let them do that. Then they get sanctioned. Brilliant move.
    Your arrogance and the extortionist nature of American "diplomacy" is showing. At some point, perhaps in the near future, this whole "sanctions" thing is going to fall apart. All it would take is one big player to tell the US to fuck off.

    Push and see.

    It's a dollar world, and it isn't looking like it's going to be a renminbi world any time soon like they want.
    They do not want. The last thing they want is for rmb to be traded arouond and not under their control like dollars are. You can't just take Chinese speeches and fall for them headfirst. They don't play that way. They all read The Prince in their cradles. And sun zi, shee-it. The west thinks sun zi is the epitome of cunning, they even use it at West Point. Sun zi is primary school reading material to Chinese government guys. They've gone far beyond that.

    Government guys in the west are imbeciles. Before WW I at least the English had professionals, but not no more. Now you get movie stars and shyster realtors who don't have a farging clue running things. Act like a bigshot, mouth off a lot, screw everything up, then hide behind the military. Cool.

    What a bunch of losers.

    China isn't the only country in the world that can produce goods. Did you not know that?
    Have you bought anything recently ? sounds like you live in a cave. Maybe your own gdp is not so high?

    You need to explain what they can do that they have control over to simply negate all those effects of the tariffs, not just say "well they can do what they want".
    I thought I did but okay -- sell more internally, they have 800 million people who don't have much. Or sell to other countries worldwide who don't have much. China is the low-cost producer. They liked selling to the US because it was easy but hey, if the US dries up they don't get all whiny and cry about it, they find new customers -- just like any machine shop would do.

    You've never had a machine shop, so you've never lost a customer. But the rest of us have. We dealt with it. Making parts at a loss because the buyer is an asshole is not a good long-term strategy.

    For someone who talks a lot about China, you get a ton of things wrong over and over again about the country.
    For a person who has ever been there, never dealt with the people, the companies, or the government, you pull a lot of "statistics and facts" out your ass. Anyone wiht real experience understands that the western press does not have a clue about Asia. They see everything through their own blinders. It's like me describing an Aran Islander - I have no clue about where the effing Aran islands even are so I don't talk about them.

    That's a lesson US finance gurus might follow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    That's your problem right there. No one can believe "statistics" from CHian. They lie from bottom to top. I've seen it in action. The bottom lies to make themselves loko good, the top lies to make averything pretty on teevee, or for other reasons (to make themselves look poor to the WTO ?)

    You cannot believe statistics from or about China.
    Totally agree about Chinese statistics, but in this instance, what would be the goal of saying you have higher debt than you do? In fact, if anything, I believe that they would be making it look lower than it really is.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Further, "debt" in China is much more meningless than in the US. Research the triangle schemes. When the big "companies" are all branches of the government, and the government owns the banks, their version of debt is taking from the left pocket to put it in the right. Nobody reposseses a factory when the same guy who owns the factory owns the debt. He just changes the ceo and moves some money around.
    Disagree. State-owned enterprises are not new. This does not mean they are bulletproof as exemplified by countless past examples. This ties back into the yuan - they are at the whim of global markets. Unlike the US, they don't have the exorbitant privilege in this respect that the US does.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    From personal experiece, people do not finance cars from the bank. They usually use a bank to finance a small portion of a house. Big down payments, most of the money comes from family. Whether they can continue to do that is unknown. But as of this moment, with the tariffs under discussion, debt in China is not a factor.
    Having a high savings rate is nothing special. Other countries have that as well. Still want to hear why China would make their debt levels look higher than they really are. That puts pressure on the yuan, on their markets, and foreign investment.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Your arrogance and the extortionist nature of American "diplomacy" is showing. At some point, perhaps in the near future, this whole "sanctions" thing is going to fall apart. All it would take is one big player to tell the US to fuck off.
    I don't know where you're getting that from. I'm just stating facts. They could get hit with sanctions if they do that. It would pose a lot of problems. Other countries already want to get away from the dollar but have found it difficult. That's not arrogance, that's just a fact.
    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    They do not want. The last thing they want is for rmb to be traded arouond and not under their control like dollars are. You can't just take Chiese speeches and fall for them headfirst. They don't play that way. They all read The Prince in their cradles.
    So you expect everyone to believe they just say that, and even make moves trying to obviously move things away from the dollar, and just believe you. I don't buy it. I don't think many people would.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Have you bought anything recently ? sounds like you live in a cave. Maybe your own gdp is not so high?
    This should be corrected with a relevant reply.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I thought I did but okay -- sell more internally, they have 800 million people who don't have much. Or sell to other countries worldwide who don't have much. Chia is the low-cost producer. They liked selling to the US because it was easy but hey, if the Us dries up they don't get all whiny and cry about it, they find new customers -- just like any machine shop would do.
    Sounds like a lot of whining to me from them. Fighting "protectionism" or whatever other bullshit speeches they make. Problem is that the US is the largest consumer market in the world. Only the EU is around the same.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    You've never had a machine shop, so you've never lost a customer. But the rest of us have. We dealt with it. Making parts at a loss because the buyer is an asshole is not a good long-term strategy.
    Yes, I have to have had a machine shop business to ever know what it's like to have lost a customer, or have any discussion on whether China will lose here. Poor point. Try again.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    For a person who has ever been there, never dealt with the people, the companies, or the government, you pull a lot of "statistics and facts" out your ass.
    I called you on the carpet pulling things out of your ass.
    You said China doesn't use foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the yuan market. That was wrong.
    You said China doesn't float the yuan within a band. That was wrong.
    You said foreign exchange reserves are just used for "business for other times" or something like that. That was wrong.
    You said no one else has ever controlled their currency. That was wrong.
    You said there was no offshore yuan market. That was wrong.
    You said the offshore yuan is a totally different currency. That was wrong.

    You pull a lot of things out of your ass. You'd do better not to look in the mirror when you're typing. You just get angry when I post verifiable facts and you feel like you have to think up some weird excuse why those facts aren't right, instead of just saying "hey, you know what, I didn't know that. However, because of x, y, and z, I still don't see an issue with this". The former is always a losing proposition. Facts are hard to dispute.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Anyone wiht real experience understands that the western press does not have a clue about Asia. They see everything through their own blinders. It's like me describing an Aran Islander - I have no clue about where the effing Aran islands even are so I don't talk about them.
    That would count if I were just regurgitating something from western press, but I'm not. So that's irrelevant. Sounds like you just don't like hearing anything that disagrees with you, it must all be "Wall Street banksters" or "western imperialist press". Are you a wumao? They should hire you. Diversify your business a bit.


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