Thread: Fab shop closing...

Originally Posted by Trueturning

according to the law firm Haynes and Boone.

Yes- that page is here:

https://www.haynesboone.com/-/media/...ruptcy_Monitor

The thing is the US was using about 20 million barrels/day and producing 5.
Fracking comes to town and that domestic production jumped to about 11 mbd.

You can just look at the long term WTI price chart and see when that supply came in and changed the price dynamic.

Compare that price decline from 2014 with the widespread failures coming into the sector by Q2 of 2015.
It didn't stop there and just continued to get worse- brutal really and then Covid and the sector was devastated.
Last year 500-600 companies in the oil patch failed.
Our OP in this thread is citing one- the big picture is far larger and grimmer and runs back about six years.
The failures were global- the worlds largest offshore companies failed.
This is not at all about Biden or Trump.

Look at the H&B information and compare it to that WTI price trajectory.

Remember when the talk was running wild about the boom towns set up to meet the labor demand of fracking.
I have been in the markets a long time- I fear a boom far more than a mild growth cycle.

Originally Posted by Milland

What, am I the only one here who does their machining by candlelight??

Probably not yet you are the ugliest one around here so much so that even the light from the candle would snuff itself out so it would not have to see your face.

Originally Posted by Trboatworks

True-

To be perfectly clear- I was making the point that while this damage occurred during the Trump administration, it is not a valid point that his policies caused it.
Just as this single business failure Greg has cited might not be accurately attributed to the new election cycle.

“ The Trump administration oversaw the largest level of bankruptcy and accrued debt in the oil patch in its history starting in 2016.”

Ok TR. Just saying all that energy and finally independent energy limiting the out flow to other countries of American wealth is a big win. Many put a lot of risk and money into that. Now with Biden they will increasingly be getting out the best that they can. Bankrupsey is a viable and legal option especially since credit which they had has now dried up.

Originally Posted by Trboatworks

Yes- that page is here:

https://www.haynesboone.com/-/media/...ruptcy_Monitor

The thing is the US was using about 20 million barrels/day and producing 5.
Fracking comes to town and that domestic production jumped to about 11 mbd.

You can just look at the long term WTI price chart and see when that supply came in and changed the price dynamic.

Compare that price decline from 2014 with the widespread failures coming into the sector by Q2 of 2015.
It didn't stop there and just continued to get worse- brutal really and then Covid and the sector was devastated.
Last year 500-600 companies in the oil patch failed.
Our OP in this thread is citing one- the big picture is far larger and grimmer and runs back about six years.
The failures were global- the worlds largest offshore companies failed.
This is not at all about Biden or Trump.

Look at the H&B information and compare it to that WTI price trajectory.

Remember when the talk was running wild about the boom towns set up to meet the labor demand of fracking.
I have been in the markets a long time- I fear a boom far more than a mild growth cycle.

Russia and Saudi had a price war. In their interest if they both have plenty of oil. Now Germany has a pipeline right from Russia. That will change things politically. Not good for Europe nor the US , Poland and Eastern European countries happy to be free of Russia and because we committed to defend them in NATO it creates problems.

Originally Posted by GregSY

. . . Why are they closing? After the thing this past November some considered an election, one by one their contracts dried . . . . !

Originally Posted by GregSY

. . . As for the erection of 2020, every adult alive knows it was a fraud. Always will be. Other countries are laughing at the US...but of course, the media here hides it all.

Originally Posted by GregSY

. . . I tried my best to use a thread title that is meaningful. I didn't mean to offer a place for drunkards, transsexuals, and women-with-peepees to lick their gorins over the intense dissonance they feel for having supported the worst President ever, even worse than Obammy.

I have little time to convince morons that they're morons....in fact none. It's a perfect fit for the old saying - never get in the mud and fight with a pig....you'll both get dirty, only he enjoys it.

You girls go cuddle up and enjoy your dreams of Beijing Biden taking it in the rear by China. Let us men worry about machining.

Pathetic . . .

Originally Posted by PeteM

Pathetic . . .

You're being far too kind. It's this type of "thinking" that's the greatest danger to the country. Fear is never a good foundation for politics, commerce, OR living.

[OK, sometimes fear is good for commerce, sort of in the way that self-cannibalism can sate one's hunger]

The take home here is that the US will never be a swing producer in the crude market.
This will leave our petroleum sector vulnerable to those who are.

Our employment in the industry plus all of the businesses which support it will be subjected to that global price dynamic others control.
We may have the capacity to bring in high cost peripheral deposits such as those produced by fracking but come any price correction and vast layoffs and failures will occur.

Want energy independence- create an infrastructure which is not based on global commodity pricing.

This is not energy independence:



The Op is right to be concerned by a long known business which has shut its doors.
He is wrong about why those doors were shut.

If we want our businesses to survive we have to be clear eyed about what creates those conditions for their success or failure.

much better to use our military to obtain oil than allow advancements in

3d imageing and directional control shift any power from mic to the private

sector

shows who is in control

wallstreet and the military industrial complex

just a little collateral damage here

Libya

Iraq

Syria

next up Venezuela

Get off it oil has always been boom and bust, same for any one who’s business is
Primarily dependent on oil.

Originally Posted by GregSY

I'm sorry, I tried my best to use a thread title that is meaningful. I didn't mean to offer a place for drunkards, transsexuals, and women-with-peepees to lick their gorins over the intense dissonance they feel for having supported the worst President ever, even worse than Obammy.

I have little time to convince morons that they're morons....in fact none. It's a perfect fit for the old saying - never get in the mud and fight with a pig....you'll both get dirty, only he enjoys it.

You girls go cuddle up and enjoy your dreams of Beijing Biden taking it in the rear by China. Let us men worry about machining.

No, you went on a a long winded rant about a poorly run, antiquated fab shop going out of business to perpetuate the myth that the election was "stolen" from your orange messiah. Then, you backed that thread up with the above, which shows what a bigoted, homophobic, ignorant, pathetic little man you really are.

Nice try.

Mcgyver- Should the stimulus package devalue the dollar?
(It appears the dollar spiked on its passage..)

I am looking at this from a austerity or not angle and not the dilutive one but I am way out of my depth here.

You have any thoughts on this- it ties into the international crude market and how domestic production competes with international markets but at that point spelling out all of those interactions and balances escapes me.

So a basic question- is a stronger dollar going to accelerate oil patch business failures or defend from them?


I have some reading to do this weekend to get more of this stuff under my belt...

Understanding the Correlation of Oil and Currency

Originally Posted by Trboatworks

Mcgyver- Should the stimulus package devalue the dollar?
(It appears the dollar spiked on its passage..)

I'm flattered you'd ask. Its so complex and so unprecedented I'd be lying if I said I had any clarity. In general sense, I don't think anybody takes a Keynesian view seriously as an good way to govern, but it for sure has role when things have need a kick start so I'd overall suspect its a good thing. However I haven't spent time on exactly what its content is. Then there is the problem is you can't afford it given you (and us) overspent rather than save when times were good.

What I think a stimulus package is suppose to do is provide some grease to get things moving. However I also think administrators should be really keeping a close eye on every dollar and the best way to spend it. No bridges to nowhere, corporate welfare (instead properly adjudicated loans), carrier battle groups or to fund expenses. If the spend isn't sensible, you're just add to the sea anchor economic affect of having to have more tax to pay it back

the whole world is in such a mess, its really hard to have a solid of the right course of action. Everything I think a devaluation might be either reasonable or inevitable, I ask against what? The yuan? everyone else is equally pooched. If it happens it'll be through inflation which I kind of think is also inevitable.

Thanks for taking the time to write that out.
I have been playing catch-up with economics for a couple of years trying to get up to speed.
Currency balance and its implications for the US crude sector- way past what I understand.

Something to start with- written as crude prices were in free fall and started the sector business failures in 2016:

The Biggest Threat To Oil Prices Is The Dollar, Not A Supply Glut | OilPrice.com

Biden was able to destroy a company that's been in business for 40 years in 2 months?

Wow, he really is a terrible president.

Thanks for the education!

My dumbass would've thought it was because they were doing $10 jobs from walk-ins that brought their own steel.

Originally Posted by GregSY

As for the erection of 2020, every adult alive knows it was a fraud. Always will be. Other countries are laughing at the US...but of course, the media here hides it all.

The fact that you can say that and apparently believe it's true is a huge part of your problem.

Fact is, the rest of the worlw *was* laughing at the USA under ex-President Trump and breathed a huge sigh of relief when a competent, even if barely, old man took over.

Face facts. Your guy lost.

As for shops closing, yeah, sometimes as a customer it's a major PITA but it's the nature of the biz.

PDW

The fact that you can say that and apparently believe it's true is a huge part of your problem.

yeah, I do find it exceptional that people believe this. From someone outside the US, what is astounding and there is no contention about it in the rest of English speaking world as far as I can see, is that there are people like Greg who believe Trump's election fraud nonsense. Left and Right, that's what the world outside of the US thinks.

It's like those two out of the Borat II movie, unreal.

Too bad more Republicans didn't vote to impeach, then the GOP could get back to being a credible party with a credible leader and leave the nut-bar stuff behind

So the price of crude has recovered to pre covid levels and above.
I wonder at the dynamics for all the business closures in the sector and the prospects now for going forward.
One thing I have heard is these cycles represent consolidation and while individual outfits fail the general capacity of the sector continues in fewer businesses.

Again- this is far out of my depth but I am curious about how North American crude production fills out going forward.
At some point in price the offshore outfits will get active again as well.

Didn't EOM drop a huge exploration play in the far north some years back as price softened?
Wasn't there something about that rig being mothballed?

Don't worry, the commies will do it right this time.

Originally Posted by SND

Don't worry, the commies will do it right this time.

Well the Fascists had their turn and have made a mess to clean up

Originally Posted by Mcgyver

yeah, I do find it exceptional that people believe this. From someone outside the US, what is astounding and there is no contention about it in the rest of English speaking world as far as I can see, is that there are people like Greg who believe Trump's election fraud nonsense. Left and Right, that's what the world outside of the US thinks.

It's like those two out of the Borat II movie, unreal.

Too bad more Republicans didn't vote to impeach, then the GOP could get back to being a credible party with a credible leader and leave the nut-bar stuff behind

It really does not matter much look who is President. It was not a huge landslide win anyway. In past elections like the last one many Democrats felt the same way about that election and others.

Why could that be the case? Well take any of these politicians and note all of the exemptions they enjoy from actually getting into any trouble. One example the Federal law concerning the border Illegal Immigration thing is being broken by the Biden administration and the stable situation down there has been really messed up. That politicians break the law with such a cavalier attitude underlines the distrust of government and political parties as those leaders very often are to appearances do appear to be above the law. This leads to a public judgement on our system of justice as evidenced by the civil unrest we have seen in the riots from Minnesota to Washington DC.

Attitudes toward most things are in fact as a standard highly suspicious. I think for good reason. If one thinks the supreme courts are all about facing challenges presented to it only need review the myriad things the court passed on historically in addition to law made which will and has in the past changed over time. In actuality it is in a state of flux. This fact takes away how the public sees stability and highlights the anger seen with citizens.