FWIW: "The End Of The Chinese Economic Miracle" - Forbes

FWIW: "The End Of The Chinese Economic Miracle" - Forbes
The End Of The Chinese Economic Miracle - Forbes

LFLondon said:

FWIW: "The End Of The Chinese Economic Miracle" - Forbes
The End Of The Chinese Economic Miracle - Forbes

Click to expand...

I can't remember who it was that said, "The reports on my death are highly exaggerated".

Can anyone off hand think of a country doing better than it was 5 years ago in terms of export, production and unemployment?

Gordon B. Clarke said:

Can anyone off hand think of a country doing better than it was 5 years ago in terms of export, production and unemployment?

Click to expand...

If by 5 years ago you mean 2009, then yes, Switzerland for example. 2008 was such a huge anomaly, it hasn't been correctly accounted for yet!

The canary in the coal mine is China's physical gold imports. Why would any country import so much, except as insurance against economic downturn? After all, gold is a bad investment. It doesn't generate any returns.

LFLondon said:

FWIW: "The End Of The Chinese Economic Miracle" - Forbes
The End Of The Chinese Economic Miracle - Forbes

Click to expand...

Great article. Economists have been pointing out for several years that the bubble that the Communist government was creating was not sustainable. That's the reason they're building dozens of phantom cities -- they're desperately trying to keep the bubble going, even if it means building ghost cities in the middle of no where.

Everyone remembers Japan's economic bubble of the 80's -- we all thought that Japan was going to take over the world. They were buying up US debt, real estate, and art in huge quantities. Lots of Sci Fi movies, including Ridley Scott's "Blade Runner" showed a dystopian world dominated by the Japanese, and the denizen's of Decker's city spoke a weird mixture of Japanese and English. Japan's economic miracle wasn't sustainable either.

I've been to Shanghai and Beijing several times in the last year, and a lot of that article rings true.

Gordon B. Clarke said:

I can't remember who it was that said, "The reports on my death are highly exaggerated".

Can anyone off hand think of a country doing better than it was 5 years ago in terms of export, production and unemployment?

Click to expand...

That quote was from Mark Twain (Samuel Langhorn Clemens). BTW I highly recommend his writings for their dry wit. He was quite the social critic in his day, apart from his books.

Their population is like the United States in that there is a very large population aging and preparing for retirement in many cases. The demographics of population is based on a economic model of replacement allowing the younger workers if they are there to provide perhaps some kind of support. Since their new birth rates have not kept up this creates a big gap. I suppose a wise manufacturer over there like in this country would in that case look to technology to replace the lowering labor pool with the solution of using robotic assisted machining. A CNC is a good example of this as it does a lot of work replacing some of the past manual machinists and numerous operation setups to complete a part. I think that the model of growth seems to me to encourage over population. In fact a lot of top economies are experiencing this trend. It is sad really in a way that the current system of things seem to work against families of over three children. My Father was one of 13 children and a few never made it through childbirth so he could have had 16 or more siblings if they had lived. His generation fought WWII and he was a part of it joining asap after Pearl Harbor of which the anniversary is Dec. 7. I guess on the farm they needed a lot of help or that the winters were cold in Northern Maine.

I am not exactly on topic here.....but I read an article quite a few years ago about drain oil that was improperly disposed of in the eastern U.S. After it was discovered everyone who had oil taken from their business from this licensed company was responsible to pay for a portion of the clean up....even though they had paid to have their drain oil removed by a licensed recycler........This is where it gets to China.........fast forward a few decades......Assume that at some point the pollution in China gets to a level that the Chinese actually change the regulations.......could we see something similar happen? Companies that moved to China with the sole purpose being to circumvent pollution laws in other countries. They have poured chemicals " out the back door" for years even though they have been aware of the dangers. Could / would a "new" China sue the living shit out of said companies? I don't know....just a thought......and no....I am definitely not an environmentalist lol

toolsteel said:

I am not exactly on topic here.....but I read an article quite a few years ago about drain oil that was improperly disposed of in the eastern U.S. After it was discovered everyone who had oil taken from their business from this licensed company was responsible to pay for a portion of the clean up....even though they had paid to have their drain oil removed by a licensed recycler..............and no....I am definitely not an environmentalist lol

Click to expand...

And why not? Its good for everyone, you included. What you may have referred to happened in N.C., about 5 miles from where I live. It was about PCB transformer oil that the waste management contractor simply put in tanker trucks and drove them along highways at night spraying the ditches and shoulders of the road with the oil. The State dug it up and buried it in a landfill in Warren Cty. NC where years later it was reported to be leaking. Of course they located the landfill in a poor region of the county where un or ill informed folks offered no opposition to the site. See why it pays to become environmentally aware and active?

LFLondon

I am curious about Chinese low cost exports;

A few times here it has been mentioned that their finished goods cost less than the cost of materials. I am surprised at many cheap items and how they can possible generate a profit.

So am I right in assuming that the Chinese are actually losing money on many exports (even accounting for artifically low yuan) but are doing it for strategic long term purposes. Now what I am curious about is whether China as incurred massive debt by this and if it is going to cause them major problems?

Spinit said:

Their population is like the United States in that there is a very large population aging and preparing for retirement in many cases.

Click to expand...

Actually, China's population demographic is nothing like the United States'. China's population has far fewer people under 40 than it should, and a strong majority of those under 40 are male. The one child policy significantly skewed the population distribution.