Hello everyone

I just joined the site, looks like a great forum. I tool machining classes in high school, and after I graduated I worked as a machinist for about 5 years. The shop I worked at closed, and I went to work as a fabricator. For about 10 years now I have been away from machining, I did some lathe work over the years but nothing major. Once again, the plant I worked at closed, and I was laid off. I decided this past January to go back to school, so that I could go back to work doing what I love-machining.

I enrolled in school in their Precision Machining aas program in January, and as soon as I laid my hands on a mill, everything I thought I had forgotten instantly came back to me. I forgot how much I loved it. In NY, when you are on unemployment and attending school, there's a program that you can apply for and if they accept your course of study the state will pay your unemployment for the time you are in school. Well, mine was denied, because they said that this field was going no where, and that machining was dieing out.

Is this the trend all over the country? Wen I worked as a machinist, there was over 200 shops here in Rochester. Now I understand that that number is far smaller. I really want to go back to work machining, do you think it will be tough finding a job in the field? Thanks for any info

Mike

Welcome to the forum Mike;

About the only fields of work not dying out in the southern tier of NY are social work and unemployment claims clerk.

I started my business in Hornell, about 60 miles south of you, in 1992. My first ad for a machinist garnered about 30 calls. Most had been out of work for more than a year.

It's a shame because the folks in upstate NY are some of the nicest and hardest working people I've ever known.

Doug

doug6949 said:

Welcome to the forum Mike;

About the only fields of work not dying out in the southern tier of NY are social work and unemployment claims clerk.

I started my business in Hornell, about 60 miles south of you, in 1992. My first ad for a machinist garnered about 30 calls. Most had been out of work for more than a year.

It's a shame because the folks in upstate NY are some of the nicest and hardest working people I've ever known.

Doug

Click to expand...

That is highly discouraging! I have this bad feeling that when I complete school I'm going to wind up back in the same field I was in before school-plant mechanic/fabricator. I think I'm going to try to purchase a few machines for my shop, so at the very least I can make parts for my bikes and cars.

Mike, I left machining but bought equipment (Bridgeport mill, Monarch, Lodge&Shipley lathes, Brown&Sharp surface grinder, saw) so I and my friends would always have access to a machine shop. It has paid for itself in fixing cars and other stuff.

IMHO until our trade policy changes, U.S. manufacturing is going down the toilet.

Here is a brief history.

U.S. TARIFF HISTORY 1821-2000

YEARS……………..AVERAGE EFFECTIVE TARIFF (% tax on all imports)
1821-1830………….46.6%
1831-1840………….24.9%
1841-1850………….24.0%
1851-186……………20.8%
1861-1870………….36.2%
1871-1880………….31.3%
1881-1890………….30.1%
1891-1900………….23.7%

1821-1900………….29.7%

1901-1910………….25.0%
1911-1920………….11.8%
1921-1930………….13.8%
1931-1940………….16.8%
1941-1950………….9.0%

1901-1950………….15.3%

1951-1960………….5.9%
1961-1970………….7.3%
1971-1980………….4.0%
1981-1990………….3.5%
1991-2000………….2.5%

The income tax was created in 1913, just in time to be around to fund WW I :

YEAR.....INOME TAX REVENUE.....TARIFF REVENUE
1916............$173,387,000.........$213,185,000
1917............$675,250,000.........$225,962,000


Up until 1916, the tariff was the largest single Federal revenue source.

1917 was the first time in U.S. history that the income tax surpassed the tariff and we've never looked back since then.

2007 IMPORTS AND TARIFF REVENUES

IMPORTS = $2,345.983 billion
(source: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/09s1260.pdf )

TARIFFS = $26.010 billion of which $1.339 billion came from trust fund revenues.
(source: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy09/pdf/hist.pdf Table 2.5 p.50 of 342)

$26.010 - $1.339 = $24.671 billion

$24.671 / $2,345.983 x 100% = 1.0% EFFECTIVE TAX RATE

U.S GDP = $13,841 billion
(source: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/09s0645.pdf )

Imports as a percent of U.S. GDP are now a staggering 16.9% of GDP yet only pay 1.0% effective tax rate.

Percent of Federal revenues paid by tariffs in 1905 was 47.4%

In 2002, 49% of all Federal revenue came from the personal income tax.

The entire U.S. economy now suffers under a 30% effective tax rate.


YEAR---TP--------EM---------PP
1920-----106.0-----10.658-----10.0%
1930-----123.2------9.562------7.8%
1940-----132.1-----10.985-----8.3%
1944-----139.8-----17.602-----12.6%
1950-----151.3-----15.241-----10.1%
1960-----179.3-----16.796-----9.4%
1970-----203.3-----19.367-----9.5%
1980-----226.5-----20.285-----8.9%
1990-----248.7-----19.076-----7.7%
2000-----281.4-----18.473-----6.6%
2004-----293.9-----16.484-----5.6%

TP = Total U.S. population (millions)
EM = People employed in manufacturing (millions)
PP = Percent employed in manufacturing of total population
source: Statistical Abstract of the United States


To inflate the manufacturing sector and make it appear larger than it was in the past as our free trade catastrophe began to unfold, the U.S. Census Bureau redefined "manufacturing" several times.

For example:

http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/10statab/labor.pdf

"......in June 2003, all establishment survey employment, hours, and earnings series were converted from being classified by the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system to being classified by the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The NAICS conversion resulted in major definitional changes to many of the previously published SIC-based series."

A specific example of this definition change:

1997 Economic Census Reports - Manufacturing

"Prominent among the industries that are now included in manufacturing are bakeries, candy stores where candy is made on the premises, custom tailors, makers of custom draperies, and tire retreading."

Presto, instant inflation of the "manufacturing output" of the U.S. economy by including bakeries and candy stores.


Steve

Wow Steve, thank you for the information. That is also very discouraging, and pretty sad. I'd like to pick up a vertical mill, to start with for my shop. If you or anyone else has a recomendation as to what to look for and what not to get I would appreciate it. I know Bridgeport is the bigger name, but how about Cincinnati, Supermax, etc?

Mike

Not to worry. Soon Steve will provide you with much information.

Very much.

machinehead61 said:

Mike, I left machining but bought equipment (Bridgeport mill, Monarch, Lodge&Shipley lathes, Brown&Sharp surface grinder, saw) so I and my friends would always have access to a machine shop. It has paid for itself in fixing cars and other stuff.
Steve

Click to expand...

Steve, I would like to do something similar to what you are describing here. However I'm not too clear on what you mean by "paid for itself"

Have you and your friends collectively benifited by making their own parts and thereby saving on the purchase costs, or have you somehow recovered the cost of your investment in your machinery by other means?

I hope you don't think this is an impertinent question, obviously I have no interest in your personal situation. I'm just trying to see generaly how this works out in practice.

John

thruthefence said:

Not to worry. Soon Steve will provide you with much information.

Very much.

Click to expand...

I'm a bit of an information junkie. Just checked out another great book from the library - Take This Job And Ship It by U.S. Senator Byron L. Dorgan

Here is a little gem:

"Ever since the Global War on Terror began in 2001, one of the key weapons in the U.S. arsenal has been the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) - the remarkably accurate high - altitude, guided bomb that allows a precision attack on a specific target with minimum chance of collateral damage.

Thousands of JDAMs have been used in Afghanistan and Iraq over the course of the last three years. Some of the Special Operations troops who participated in Operation Enduring Freedom maintain that the Taliban might still control Kabul if it weren't for the JDAMs delivered in support of their ground campaign....

Unfortunately, a crucial component of the JDAM was manufactured by a Swiss company, Micro Crystal. Because the Swiss opposed the war in Iraq, the government in Berne ordered the company to stop shipment of any more JDAM elements.

It took several months for the Defense Department to find alternative sources for the critical parts."

U.S. Senator Byron Dorgan
Take This Job And Ship It, 2006
p.245-246

There are some great stories from inside the government that this Senator has seen of how U.S trade policy is all but broken.


Steve

It seems like the folks in power are trying to ruin the country! I've got an idea, how about we import some cheap politicians. Couldn't do much worse!

Noooo!

machinehead61 said:

I'm a bit of an information junkie. Just checked out another great book from the library - Take This Job And Ship It by U.S. Senator Byron L. Dorgan

Here is a little gem:

"Ever since the Global War on Terror began in 2001, one of the key weapons in the U.S. arsenal has been the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) - the remarkably accurate high - altitude, guided bomb that allows a precision attack on a specific target with minimum chance of collateral damage.

Thousands of JDAMs have been used in Afghanistan and Iraq over the course of the last three years. Some of the Special Operations troops who participated in Operation Enduring Freedom maintain that the Taliban might still control Kabul if it weren't for the JDAMs delivered in support of their ground campaign....

Unfortunately, a crucial component of the JDAM was manufactured by a Swiss company, Micro Crystal. Because the Swiss opposed the war in Iraq, the government in Berne ordered the company to stop shipment of any more JDAM elements.

It took several months for the Defense Department to find alternative sources for the critical parts."

U.S. Senator Byron Dorgan
Take This Job And Ship It, 2006
p.245-246

There are some great stories from inside the government that this Senator has seen of how U.S trade policy is all but broken.


Steve

Click to expand...

Is he actually saying that the Swiss gov't. controls what their companies do and who they can do business with? NAHHHH can't be ---

I didn't think there was a gov't. in existence that wasn't controlled by special interests -- i.e. corporations, insurance companies, lobby groups, religious groups (on one side of the aisle, maybe not too much though), environmentalists (Obama's salvation for America -- GREEN) Let's all go to work building windmills and the like, it beats floppin' burgers.. That would be super if the jobs created would sustain a previously GREAT nation.

Oh I forgot we can't build windmills either 'cause a bird might be stupid enough to fly into one of the blades -- Oh well McD here we come --- oh you're not hiring 'cause no one is buying any more -- no one has a job and they can't afford to buy your 'burgers..

It seems that all of the groups I mention control everything our gov't. does. How do the Swiss do it? Maybe we should try to do the same.

Hell I hope the green jobs come -- the green folks helped destroy the American manufacturing base maybe they will help rebuild it (I Think Not -- BUT MAYBE.)

On another note it seems offshoring critical elements of state of the art war machines is really STUPID --- we can be brought to our knees by any country that feels like it if they provide this type of component to our war machines. Again where are the BRAINS in our gov't.? Who knows --- 2020 awaits

Rich

flathead said:

I've got an idea, how about we import some cheap politicians. Couldn't do much worse!

Click to expand...

We have some "Nude Officials" here. It does not mean he is wearing nothing, but his wife and children are living abroad, while he takes a vital position here.

How about importing (to us, exporting) them. Not sure cheap or not.