Thread: Interesting article on AI / Robots and future employment

Most of these articles end with the idea that everyone will be given a basic living wage -- and folks able to keep a job will continue to work for the sense of accomplishment, respect, extra income etc. Others will become volunteers, couch potatoes, whatever.

One fly in the ointment, it seems to me, will be differential birth rates. These days our most fully employed (highly educated, etc.) folks tend to have fertility rates below replacement level. Conversely those living hand to mouth (less likely to be employed or highly educated) have fertility rates that will see the population continue to grow. Hard to predict where that will lead. One possibility is even greater inequality. Another is increased conflict as various groups aim to out-reproduce or out-earn one another.

Neither conventional liberalism nor conventional conservatism (nor socialism or capitalism for that matter) is equipped to deal with this new world.

' Revenge of the cradles '

Originally Posted by PeteM

Most of these articles end with the idea that everyone will be given a basic living wage -- and folks able to keep a job will continue to work for the sense of accomplishment, respect, extra income etc. Others will become volunteers, couch potatoes, whatever.

One fly in the ointment, it seems to me, will be differential birth rates. These days our most fully employed (highly educated, etc.) folks tend to have fertility rates below replacement level. Conversely those living hand to mouth (less likely to be employed or highly educated) have fertility rates that will see the population continue to grow. Hard to predict where that will lead. One possibility is even greater inequality. Another is increased conflict as various groups aim to out-reproduce or out-earn one another.

Neither conventional liberalism nor conventional conservatism (nor socialism or capitalism for that matter) is equipped to deal with this new world.

Idiocracy (26) - IMDb

I spent my career building and maintaining automation. When I first started in the trade I had some reservations about putting people out of work. One of the journeymen told me that it is essential that we automate. If we don't and the place across the street does, they will eat our lunch.

Another thing about automation is that it is a lot more than what we often think of as robots, an arm that swings 360 degrees and can be manipulated. Every vibratory feeder bowl and feeder system replaces what was probably at one time a person picking parts out of a basket and putting a part in by hand.

When I hired in to our plant in the mid 70's we had about 8 people on an assembly line. When I retired 30 years later one person ran 2 lines that out produced the old lines. My dad told me that when he hired in back in the mid 50's they had something like 25 people on a line.

One other thing that can be said for automation is that a lot of the jobs that it replaces are mind numbing jobs. Lots of carpel tunnel and things like that. It is a lot easier to replace a cylinder or actuator or bushing than to do surgery.

One does have to wonder what people will do for employment/money in the future.

Originally Posted by paracongo308

Robots have already replaced 10's of thousands of workers in this country alone. The company I worked for 1st started using them 28 years ago and within a dozen years hand many of them. Example: between each large press on a 4-5 press line making automotive stampings there would be 2 workers removing the stamping off the lifters. They would then transfer the part to the next press for more operations. You would have 8-10 workers involved in that line prior to the robots and now they 2 workers removing the panel from the final press to rack. In between the presses they switched to robots and when a different panel is to be run the tooling head for the new panels are changed. Where workers use to spot weld a robot will now do the work. There easy to train, don't take breaks, don't require holiday pay and work for peanuts.. In the 90's we were paying around $75k for a ABB robot and it paid for itself in 1.5 years.

Old thread, I know....but I just read an article about the Rouge and automation. They automated the loading and unloading and transfer to the next press of the following: outer door panel, wheel housing stampings, floor pans just to name a few. The front and rear floor pans then transferred, automatically, to an automatic welding press, and then automatically unloaded and moved on. All this in 1948.

I also read an article about Timken bearings....from the loading of the raw material, through the entire process, to the packaging of the final product, all automated and untouched by the human hand. Article from mid 1950's.

I've read hundreds of articles from those time periods and the biggest scare of automation was starting in mid to late 1950's, the general feeling was all the jobs were going to be replaced by automation by the mid 1970's.

Currently, manufacturing employers cannot find skilled labor, and from what I've read, this is nationwide.

Originally Posted by jeffm8622

Currently, manufacturing employers cannot find skilled labor, and from what I've read, this is nationwide.

We frequently have threads on this topic, and most of them come down to the pay those jobs are offering, which in most cases is McDonald's-level wages. In other words, money don't match the bitching.

At the risk of stating the obvious - we've all been robotizing over the decades - every CNC mill or lathe or grinder or ?? is a robot, just a specifically dedicated one. And yes, they certainly have displaced or removed the need for workers, we know this.

As to what Humans do after the Great Inflection? I've been promoting Education as the real task of Man and Woman. The ability to learn rapidly and broadly is the singular party trick of Homo Sapiens, despite how often we dismiss or play down teachers and academia. If work as we know it is truly to be supplanted by automation/robots/AI, then our new task will be to learn, and to get paid for how much we learn, not necessarily what.

It could be incredibly freeing, and produce a huge new wave of talented physicists, engineers, musicians, artists, historians - almost anything. It also will be frightening for a lot of people and classes, perhaps especially the politicians that count on fear and manipulation to maintain their power - I think this will be the greatest counterforce to universal intensive learning as work.

After all, with everyone an expert in analysis and reason (perhaps aided by Elon Musk's newest push), who would vote for a certain recent President? Who would be racist when we understood that we're essentially entirely identical, expressions of certain colorant genes aside?

Also, global overpopulation could finally be addressed (as noted, more educated peoples tend towards fewer children), and maybe we wouldn't drive so much of the rest of the ecosystem towards extinction. And those fewer children would live much more fulfilling lives, with less threats of premature death due to war and disease.

Ah, Utopia. The one thing about the future we can be certain of is that it won't manifest as anything like what I've described above. I guess I've gotten old enough to be far too cynical.

Perhaps Devo was simply ahead of their time...

Perhaps Devo was simply ahead of their time...[/QUOTE]

In 1980 I labeled them 'freaks wearing flower pots' but they had a couple good tunes.

Originally Posted by jeffm8622

In 1980 I labeled them 'freaks wearing flower pots' but they had a couple good tunes.

Well, their underlying thesis was that Man was Devolving. I tend to look at the rise of nationalism, racism, and isolationism as a validation of their view.

Originally Posted by Milland

As to what Humans do after the Great Inflection? I've been promoting Education as the real task of Man and Woman.

Unfortunately, it appears that most people mean "more" when you say education rather than "better."

We don't need more years. A fifth grade education in 1963 was better than a bachelor's today. We could use more quality tho ... but that's been a negative trend for quite a while. Also, not all educations need to be academic, either.

This thing with "more education !" just doesn't do it for me ... especially since the family has about fifty years experience doing better education, but finding that the most resistance came from parents (who couldn't do the homework), administrations (who couldn't supervise teachers as easily), the society in general (which seems convinced that the world is flat) ... all of it. "Education" need to be more than just four more years of the same old shit to make any difference.

Originally Posted by Milland

We frequently have threads on this topic, and most of them come down to the pay those jobs are offering, which in most cases is McDonald's-level wages. In other words, money don't match the bitching.


Perhaps Devo was simply ahead of their time...

Bullshit.

We've been trying to hire a full up toolmaker for YEARS.
Nada.

And we're willing to pay WAY more than McDonald's wages.

We've resorted to promoting from within, just to get the ball rolling.

Nobody wants their kid working around sharp spinney thingies......They might get hurt, don't ya' know.

The trades are shit upon daily in schools now. They are the place you go when you are too stupid to get into the local shit show university that requires $20,000 a year tuition.

It's not the pay, its the stigma.

Originally Posted by Thunderjet

Bullshit.

We've been trying to hire a full up toolmaker for YEARS.
Nada.

And we're willing to pay WAY more than McDonald's wages.

We've resorted to promoting from within, just to get the ball rolling.


It's not the pay, its the stigma.

There's doubtless some truth to that, but toolmaker is a very specialized part of the "machinist" spectrum, so your willingness to actually pay a decent wage (and what's decent??) is an outlier.

I don't think you can call a blanket "bullshit" when so many here have gone though this exact issue when looking for work.

Originally Posted by Thunderjet

Bullshit.

We've been trying to hire a full up toolmaker for YEARS.
Nada.

And we're willing to pay WAY more than McDonald's wages.

We've resorted to promoting from within, just to get the ball rolling.

Nobody wants their kid working around sharp spinney thingies......They might get hurt, don't ya' know.

The trades are shit upon daily in schools now. They are the place you go when you are too stupid to get into the local shit show university that requires $20,000 a year tuition.

It's not the pay, its the stigma.

Place your job advert here:
meadvilletribune.com

Meadville Pa area has the training in place, starting in High school, pumping out T&D makers
by the truck load.

Originally Posted by Zahnrad Kopf

That's what the robots want you to believe.

I wish I had robots to load gear cutting machines in my shop now.

Originally Posted by Milland

There's doubtless some truth to that, but toolmaker is a very specialized part of the "machinist" spectrum, so your willingness to actually pay a decent wage (and what's decent??) is an outlier.

I don't think you can call a blanket "bullshit" when so many here have gone though this exact issue when looking for work.

"Decent wage" depends on the situation.
We can't pay Honeywell wages, but we can get close, and offer the opportunity to design and build your own tools. And we offer flex time.

For apprentices we start them low, and if they show up, and show drive and mechanical ability, they move up quickly.

as far as a toolmaker being "very specialized", I don't understand this thinking. To me, a toolmaker is the opposite of specialized. They can and do anything in the shop. From fixing the downfeed on a Bridgy to welding a broken office chair.

But that's just me.

Originally Posted by Thunderjet

"Decent wage" depends on the situation.
We can't pay Honeywell wages, but we can get close, and offer the opportunity to design and build your own tools. And we offer flex time.

For apprentices we start them low, and if they show up, and show drive and mechanical ability, they move up quickly.

as far as a toolmaker being "very specialized", I don't understand this thinking. To me, a toolmaker is the opposite of specialized. They can and do anything in the shop. From fixing the downfeed on a Bridgy to welding a broken office chair.

But that's just me.

Do you not have a maintenance department? I have never heard of a toolmaker doing either of those jobs. But I have just sacked Tyrone Shoelaces.

Sounds more like you want a tool maker who also doubles as maintenance/general labor.

While I don't particularly like unions or the way they make it so that you do 1 job and you don't dare even try to do another job, it does set the point for me where most employers want someone to do 3-4 jobs for 1 job pay. Where I work I do machining and set up, programming, training, and when our inspector is on vacation I do inspection with is at least a 2 man job here, but still only covered by 1 person. Hell I've even come in to help our maintenance guy install a new 2" line for a new shot-peen machine because I was the only other person who had any experience working with black pipe.

At least when you work a low minimum wage job you tend to be set in stone what your job actually entails.

Originally Posted by digger doug

Place your job advert here:
meadvilletribune.com

Meadville Pa area has the training in place, starting in High school, pumping out T&D makers
by the truck load.

the truck load?!

LoL... Not any different than any other trade me thinks. I graduated from my tool & die apprenticeship with 10-15 (maybe) other people but I would say half of them probably knew nothing more than when we started. I would also say the classes weren't great by any means, but I am talking their actual skills....

The interesting thing about AI and automation is that while it will definitely displace some jobs it will likely enhance others, making workers more productive. It does not have to be a zero sum game. As a society we must decide what we will accept and what trade-offs we are willing to make.

IMO this "guaranteed minimum income" is a gimmick used to gain votes and pacify those who might otherwise rise up and rebel if they could see the future actually planned for them. While it sounds like a fair idea once they were no longer needed for work they would have ZERO bargaining power and eventually would probably be stripped of the right to vote.

Technology does not have to guarantee mass unemployment. Humans are extremely adaptable and have successfully adjusted to past innovations. In my lifetime I have seen numerous occupations from elevator operator to typist displaced by technology yet the displaced persons usually found other work, sometimes at better pay.

I for one refuse to accept the single scenario presented by the doom and gloom crowd. This type of "futurist" has been proven wrong time and again with their dire predictions about humanity.

I'm not even a little bit worried, but I'm a mechanic. There will always be broken shit that needs fixing.

Originally Posted by CAMasochism

Sounds more like you want a tool maker who also doubles as maintenance/general labor.

While I don't particularly like unions or the way they make it so that you do 1 job and you don't dare even try to do another job, it does set the point for me where most employers want someone to do 3-4 jobs for 1 job pay.

At least when you work a low minimum wage job you tend to be set in stone what your job actually entails.

It's called working for a small business.

And I do only have one job.......I make my boss look good, That's my job.

If I need to weld a chair, and I'm the only guy who can run the welder, then I weld the chair. Five minutes and it's done.

I know that if you work for a union, this is not how things get done. That's why I CHOOSE to not be represented by organized labor.

Your mileage may vary.