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  1. #401
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    A good friend of mine brings the same thoughts to me every time I see him.
    Thank god for every day you have.

    This thread could use more thanks for what we have.
    Time will put us and everything we know into the past.

    Spending so much time in such deep division is a waste.
    Sometimes it is very difficult for certain people to move forward and look for the positives in life instead they constantly live for doom and gloom. We have another holiday in a few weeks and I be willing to bet there will be the same group of people arguing till they are blue in the face vs spending time with the family that day. I will be either golfing or fishing with the family that day.

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    "Florida hosted the largest concert since the pandemic began because Florida chose freedom over Faucism"
    ~Tweet from Governor Ron DeSantis

    I see what he did there. This guy would get my vote for President.

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  4. #403
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    Default Many still expecting doom

    Ron DeSantis will be the next President in 2024...my prediction.

    The far left will have nobody to blame but themselves, except maybe Uncle Joe because he wasn’t man enough to stand up to them.

    We’re not a far-left country, in spite of what the very loud and obnoxious far-left (including the mainstream media) would lead us to believe.

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  6. #404
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    Politics has clearly entered the main stream of conversation.

    As a business owner, it would be benefitable to keep personal political views to yourself. Especially among employees and engaging in social media. Most of PM members will most likely disagree with me, but as a defense contractor I certainly do not want to raise any attention.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Politics has clearly entered the main stream of conversation.

    As a business owner, it would be benefitable to keep personal political views to yourself. Especially among employees and engaging in social media. Most of PM members will most likely disagree with me, but as a defense contractor I certainly do not want to raise any attention.
    So just because some people get drunk it is ok to ban alcohol....remember prohibition was a miserable failure. Feel free to keep your political opinions to yourself, but you cannot restrict anyone's, including your own employees', outside of business hours, political expression. PM has the right to ban or restrict political expression they find objectionable. Unfortunately, misinformation creates dangerous societal trends. Some people may have visceral reactions to the level of misinformation. What you read here is a reflection of what is going on in the trades, in management, and in R&D, We all bring different perspectives, and some people are only exposed here to those perspectives, and even then we run up against incredible walls of information bubbles.

    Just look at the opinion pages of the Boston Globe it is a sobering analysis of the current history

    Future-proofing the Presidency - The Boston Globe

  8. #406
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    The silent group gets what they give.

    Millions of silent voices. and a few bastards in power screw them all.

    "It couldn't happen here!"

  9. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Politics has clearly entered the main stream of conversation.

    As a business owner, it would be benefitable to keep personal political views to yourself. Especially among employees and engaging in social media. Most of PM members will most likely disagree with me, but as a defense contractor I certainly do not want to raise any attention.
    Could not agree more but now the mere posting on a site that contains controversial (not PC) views is enough to be a deal breaker.

  10. #408
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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Politics has clearly entered the main stream of conversation.

    As a business owner, it would be benefitable to keep personal political views to yourself. Especially among employees and engaging in social media. Most of PM members will most likely disagree with me, but as a defense contractor I certainly do not want to raise any attention.
    Was told along time ago never discuss politics or religion with customers. After dipping my toe in a few times to test the water, some of the reactions proved it to be good advice.

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    I don't remember which thread it was in but we were talking about lumber and building material prices.

    We just paid $82 bucks a sheet for bog standard 1/2" ply sheathing at Home Depot.
    Wow.

    Radio was doing a bit where it stated the lumber prices are adding $32k to the average home build in the US.
    But I also hear that lumber futures have rolled over so maybe in the end it will have been a pricing anomaly with covid.

    Just checked lumber futures (LB):

    Yep- rolled over pretty good but I would want to see it keep declining and not settle at this new level:


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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    I don't remember which thread it was in but we were talking about lumber and building material prices.

    We just paid $82 bucks a sheet for bog standard 1/2" ply sheathing at Home Depot.
    Wow.

    Radio was doing a bit where it stated the lumber prices are adding $32k to the average home build in the US.
    But I also hear that lumber futures have rolled over so maybe in the end it will have been a pricing anomaly with covid.

    Just checked lumber futures (LB):

    Yep- rolled over pretty good but I would want to see it keep declining and not settle at this new level:


    I have a few sheets of plywood in my garage, I should sell them for $40 each. This was scrap wood from work a few years ago.

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  14. #411
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawnrs View Post
    I have a few sheets of plywood in my garage, I should sell them for $40 each. This was scrap wood from work a few years ago.
    $40?!? What the hell is wrong with you sell those for $80 a pop. There's your fun money for the weekend ahahahah.

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    Commodities trading,
    Why would anyone try this?

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Commodities trading,
    Why would anyone try this?
    Commodities trading predates any other- used as a hedge for producers and downstream interests and is the reason why we have markets.
    For anyone with a vested interest in the economy (all of us...) keeping a weather eye on commodities can be a useful indication of how things are progressing.
    I follow the Brent crude contract daily.

    Modern charting of all things traded has many adherents.
    You might appreciate one of the grandfathers of technical trading on his market observations:


    "when all are bearish, there is cause for prices to rise"

    Homma Munehisa - Wikipedia
    Last edited by Trboatworks; 06-19-2021 at 11:22 AM.

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  18. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Commodities trading,
    Why would anyone try this?
    You are right they actuality have to risk the money no question. Big profits and loss can happen. Too volition for the feint of heart. Too much buying, selling, and trading for someone who likes to buy and stay in. I suppose Warren Buffet might stay away from it yet I have not checked. One thing I do know about him is that he has been and continues to be successful and gives away a lot of his income.

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    There is no risk in commodities futures if you are able to supply or accept the conract at settlement.....for instance if you have a hamburger factory with giant coldstores. or need to fix the return for the copper from your mines ...or your cable works needs a stable price for inputs.

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    I used to trade Cocoa futures.
    I think the contract was for ten one ton bushels and used to joke with the wife that it would be no problem if we had to take delivery…..

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    Too funny. I had no idea of the details of this such as that one. Taking delivery in the end - you bought it now store it. Store it and if the item is scarce then negotiate your price as high as you can get. Or get rid of it for nothing or possibly trade for someone else’s stock. It does make sense as you basically are speculating on the value of the commodity. It must be absolutely fascinating to play a role.

    Can you imaging being a smuggler carrying scarce supplies from one country for the highest bidder delivering such from one country to another which is at war? The stories of the fast steamships running blockades during the Civil war to the Confederacy are quite interesting.

    Your earlier description seems to indicate that the system of commodities trading is truely a stake in the whole business process but yet a highly structured one. A true reflection of how these items have been bought , sold, and traded from all time.

    Even war effects the ebb and flow and is profited from. Great insights TR. Thanks.

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    Commodities are a fascinating aspect of finding value.
    The experts focus on all the minutiae effecting crop yields and other fundamental influences.

    Right now in crude Iran JCPOA talks are ongoing in Vienna which if resolved could bring sanctioned stock back into markets which has crude bears salivating.
    Are they right?

    “Speculation” is another booogieman in the markets but research shows that when established the Chicago Mercantile Exchange actually stabilized prices as price finding was immediately far broader and more accurate.

    It’s hard to know but a punter like me has full access to futures contracts and can carry long or short positions against many flavors of traded commodities.

  24. #419
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Commodities are a fascinating aspect of finding value.
    The experts focus on all the minutiae effecting crop yields and other fundamental influences.

    Right now in crude Iran JCPOA talks are ongoing in Vienna which if resolved could bring sanctioned stock back into markets which has crude bears salivating.
    Are they right?

    “Speculation” is another booogieman in the markets but research shows that when established the Chicago Mercantile Exchange actually stabilized prices as price finding was immediately far broader and more accurate.

    It’s hard to know but a punter like me has full access to futures contracts and can carry long or short positions against many flavors of traded commodities.
    Very interesting TR. I feel that pressure regarding the issue of Iran and sanctions is very important. Seems to me the bottom line in dealing with them imposing hard restrictions on trade have proven helpful as has been standing up to them on their nuclear development.

    There has always been those salivating for the forbidden prize and they really are not very concerned with all of the implications of it in regard to how Iran foments such utter instability in the region threatening all trade. During war Iran will lose and be brought to heel and with extreme prejudice.

    The only thing which might play in would be I China sent troops, equipment, arms there. It would be hard to maintain the presence and tenacity needed without a much larger Navy however. They would contribute well to the stabilization of Iran in its current form and the destabilization of the entire area though.

    The interests threatened there are vast Saudi is capable of ramping up much greater military force personnel, and equipment escalating the conflict to a conclusion. It seems inevitable with the bad blood between Sunni and Shia Muslims.

    Saudi has Mecca though one would think they would stop fighting. American soldiers need not continually be returning to the area it seems a waste.

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  26. #420
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    I don’t understand it.
    Years back I started reading The Great Game and rapidly got lost in the complexity of the region which spans centuries.

    Maybe I will pick it up again and see if I can muddle through it.

    The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia (Kodansha Globe): Hopkirk, Peter: 9781568360225: Amazon.com: Books


    Edit-
    Looking at a map... "Central Asia" doesn't really cover Iran so that book is off to the east a bit.

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