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  1. #41
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    Toolcat,the debt doesnt matter ,when the US creates more imaginary money to pay the (low) interest payments....As long as powerful people accept the US currency as a reliable store of value ,the system will be maintained .....however ,should that certainty fade ,as for instance when the Chinese gain demonstrated superiority ,thats when things get tricky.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    You might be a little bit too harsh on Warren toolcat, but the fact is; he did panic and sold like a frightened little girl.

    He surely wasn't the only one that shit their pants.
    He stated exactly why he sold in the annual meeting last weekend, he was worried that the government would make him bail them out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    ................

    I did have lots of friends pull everything out of the markets when Biden came in.
    I told them I thought it was a mistake to let politics run their accounts but it was a tough result for many and that was how they responded.

    I just talked to another buddy who is going to bug out to the woods in WV “before everything collapses”.
    ..........
    Ok, tough truth time...

    Anyone who pulls their cash out of the market on a downturn, and especially on what they THINK will be a downturn, is, to be brutally frank, a fucking idiot. An idiot who is going to, and deserves to, lose their shirt.

    1) When you pull your money out on a downturn, what you do is set your losses in stone. You make them real losses. In the '08 mess, I know several people who did pull out, they "could not stand to see the losses get worse"
    Problem is, the main recovery happened on about 4 or 5 days. Guess who wasn't in the market then? Right..... they were not, and that set them back severely. They still have not recovered. Most who had reasonable investments have seen at least a gain to 180% of the before-the-crash levels. The others? They may be back to where they had been by now, maybe.

    2) If you just think there will be a crash, you are even worse off, because it probably won't happen, and won't be as bad as you think if it does. The people who were jumping out windows in 1929 were people who were highly leveraged, and were facing losing everything plus being millions in debt for margin calls.

    Rule #1... You are NOT smarter than the market, the market does what it does for reasons you will never understand. "The market" is the collective opinions of a bunch of people who haven't a clue but think they do, and who have a two to 5 week look-ahead horizon, maximum.... make it then, or you are toast, to them.* So don't buy individual stocks, buy index funds.... they do better on average than pretty much all but the high end closed funds.

    Rule #2... Leave your money in the market. Money in the bank or under the mattress is losing value every day. The only way to keep up with inflation is to have "something of value", something that people pay money for, and not actual money.

    Rule 3... Don't let anyone scare you out of rule #2. The only scenario where rule #2 actually does not work is one in which money does not work either. Take money out if you need it, but try not to need it. Remember that being out of the market keeps your cash value "frozen"... looks good if stocks drop in value, but looks pretty nasty when they are going up, but you are stuck with just cash, out of the market.

    I should not explain this...... I make a ton of money off people who freak and sell low. It's financing my retirement. So ignore that guff above, keep doing what you do, please!


    * For example.... If a company misses its predicted sales mark, they get down-rated by the market... and sold off... of course, they are "under-performing". If that company EXCEEDS their predictions, they get down-rated by the market, because "they have nothing left", they are assumed not to be able to repeat that, they got the rest of the year's sales already, and are assumed to be about to do poorly. It's a crock of crap, and without logic... you will never understand it.

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  6. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by JST View Post
    It's a crock of crap, and without logic... you will never understand it.
    Not entirely. You have to remember that the people who make all these prognostications make their money by buying and selling. It doesn't matter which; like lawyers, they get paid either way. So anything they can do to keep money moving around aimlessly is to their advantage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Yes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JST View Post
    Ok, tough truth time...

    Anyone who pulls their cash out of the market on a downturn, and especially on what they THINK will be a downturn, is, to be brutally frank, a fucking idiot. An idiot who is going to, and deserves to, lose their shirt.

    1) When you pull your money out on a downturn, what you do is set your losses in stone. You make them real losses. In the '08 mess, I know several people who did pull out, they "could not stand to see the losses get worse"
    Problem is, the main recovery happened on about 4 or 5 days. Guess who wasn't in the market then? Right..... they were not, and that set them back severely. They still have not recovered. Most who had reasonable investments have seen at least a gain to 180% of the before-the-crash levels. The others? They may be back to where they had been by now, maybe.

    2) If you just think there will be a crash, you are even worse off, because it probably won't happen, and won't be as bad as you think if it does. The people who were jumping out windows in 1929 were people who were highly leveraged, and were facing losing everything plus being millions in debt for margin calls.

    Rule #1... You are NOT smarter than the market, the market does what it does for reasons you will never understand. "The market" is the collective opinions of a bunch of people who haven't a clue but think they do, and who have a two to 5 week look-ahead horizon, maximum.... make it then, or you are toast, to them.* So don't buy individual stocks, buy index funds.... they do better on average than pretty much all but the high end closed funds.

    Rule #2... Leave your money in the market. Money in the bank or under the mattress is losing value every day. The only way to keep up with inflation is to have "something of value", something that people pay money for, and not actual money.

    Rule 3... Don't let anyone scare you out of rule #2. The only scenario where rule #2 actually does not work is one in which money does not work either. Take money out if you need it, but try not to need it. Remember that being out of the market keeps your cash value "frozen"... looks good if stocks drop in value, but looks pretty nasty when they are going up, but you are stuck with just cash, out of the market.

    I should not explain this...... I make a ton of money off people who freak and sell low. It's financing my retirement. So ignore that guff above, keep doing what you do, please!


    * For example.... If a company misses its predicted sales mark, they get down-rated by the market... and sold off... of course, they are "under-performing". If that company EXCEEDS their predictions, they get down-rated by the market, because "they have nothing left", they are assumed not to be able to repeat that, they got the rest of the year's sales already, and are assumed to be about to do poorly. It's a crock of crap, and without logic... you will never understand it.
    I definitely agree with the majority of your statement JST.

    I will ad; On Rule #1, I definitely prefer not to use index funds, this practice waters down gains. Overall though, your statement very close resembles the fact that "the market will do what ever it must to prove the majority wrong".

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    I know the OP put this out as a poke and a burr under some saddles.
    Hello Bob,
    I hope you are well.

    I must say, I certainly did not have any intension to poke at anyone. As I have since questioned if a recession is immanent almost 2 years ago, during this period I have always been upbeat and positive.

    As you are very aware of Bob, many PM members are obsessed with politics. Many of these members are altering their business plans to suit who is in the White House.

    I was quite optimistic for the last 4 years, I believe that the next 20 years will be a great time to be in Manufacturing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post

    I was quite optimistic for the last 4 years, I believe that the next 20 years will be a great time to be in Manufacturing.


    I had a genie grant me one wish, I said I just want to be happy.

    Now I'm living in a cottage with 6 dwarves and working down a mine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    I had a genie grant me one wish, I said I just want to be happy.

    Now I'm living in a cottage with 6 dwarves and working down a mine.
    I'm sure that you will be just fine Limy,

    As long as your optimistic, you will surprise yourself on what can be accomplished.

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    I've met those optimist types - terrible people.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    They used a price for a item and the “days” factor calculated in to get the actual amount due. This was in Germany as I recall. Hyperinflation which is the extreme.

    No one should be paralyzed by fear into not acting. It is very well known and documented those who held and lost it all in the crash. Ride it down to rock bottom is not a very good plan and yet the alternative does not look to be even worse.
    Must be you haven't looked at what the US markets have been doing since Biden was elected. Looks like another record day for the Dow today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    Warren Buffet is very good as he manages to buy and sell and effectively time his transactions by informed expertise to profit. He does not hold in fear his investments he capitalizes on them standing up to the risk. He has courage.

    Tough job some excel. The environment changes and adjustments are made. Losses and gains will occur. Minimizing the losses takes high observation, evaluation, and skill. Add to those courage and skill.

    They throw paralyzing fear aside. Like the parable of the talents of the three two took the masters talent and grew its value whereas one hid his not losing anything. The one who only did that did not follow the trust nor intent of the master yet his act was never mentioned as being evil or a sin and not even grossly negligent. The master knew the risk when he gave duties out. The one hid the talent likely concerned he would lose the favor of the master because his fear paralyzed him from risk. At least he did not lose it. The servant was not punished any more than he might in hindsight be sad that he disappointed his master.

    Life is tough who knows maybe hiding the talent and not losing it may have been exactly the best move in the servant and masters case given responsibility was entrusted to those servants even the one who hid his.
    You are trumps servant and he is your master. Got it. Never had any question about that either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    Warren Buffett is a hack. 45 billion represents what, an 8% return on his total investments? BFD...

    The prick did manage to convince his crony Biden to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, which will add about 2 billion per year revenue to Buffet's BNSF railroad (the crude will still move after all...)

    And since the Democrats are the "champions" of the middle class, could you please explain how policy-induced hyper-inflation benefits the middle class? Here's a clue: it don't. Their buying power is being eroded away...

    Just look to the late 70's to see what hyper-inflation, stagnant wages, high interest rates (it's coming) and a big hand from government do to the economy.

    And sure enough, gas is predicted to be on shortage by the peak summer driving season (I thought Jimmy Carter was retired).

    And for those that say the US government debt "doesn't matter", well, in reality it doesn't matter. But what DOES matter is the interest on the debt! Which stands now at what, 10%+ of the federal budget? Imagine what America will look like here in a decade or two when the interest on the debt grows to 50%+ of the federal budget.

    Then the debt will matter...there is no free lunch. The laws of the universe apply to everything, even governments and their runaway spending.

    And as far as OSB, I'm sure the Chinaman are ramping up production and stuffing the containers full of the stuff, westbound and down. The result will be the bankruptcy or selling out of the North American OSB producers...

    ToolCat
    I don't recall you bitching when trump was shoveling money to corporations for four years in the form of tax cuts and stimulus money. Must be it only caused inflation when Democrats do it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Demon73 View Post
    Yes.
    Well Hello Demon,
    I'm glad that you revealed this chart. It clearly shows when the panic began, but it doesn't show the complete right side of the chart.

    A year ago I was touting DOW 30,000, was I wrong? Yes, I was indeed mistaken. My price target should have been 36,000.

    36,000 (that I called over a month ago) is still a quite conservative estimate. I was quite bullish throughout this whole pandemic period, and I am still.

    Would another 40% drop change my thinking... no

    38500, by Thanksgiving 2021.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    ....
    Would another 40% drop change my thinking... no
    38500, by Thanksgiving 2021.
    I would not bet against this prediction but every market run has a correction period.
    The longer the run the bigger the correction move.
    Do you see this in the cards this year? How much?
    If it falls 25-30% I see panic given the newer investors and their cell phones.
    Obviously a big fall in the numbers is the best buy time but given the new climate and continuous growth many are used to will the correction cascade into death spiral?
    40 percent would be a big hit, not sure how many would hold.
    I'd be more optimistic if we had a 10 or 15 pullback soon. Worry is this not happening and a much bigger crash and panic later.
    Bob

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    If things keep going the way they are covid wise.
    The service industry should pick up, so no reason to not
    Expect some growth.
    Then again I’m rich because I make more money then I spend.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    I would not bet against this prediction but every market run has a correction period.
    The longer the run the bigger the correction move.
    Do you see this in the cards this year? How much?
    If it falls 25-30% I see panic given the newer investors and their cell phones.
    Obviously a big fall in the numbers is the best buy time but given the new climate and continuous growth many are used to will the correction cascade into death spiral?
    40 percent would be a big hit, not sure how many would hold.
    I'd be more optimistic if we had a 10 or 15 pullback soon. Worry is this not happening and a much bigger crash and panic later.
    Bob
    Hello Bob,
    Your above opening statement is a wise choice. I will add that too many investors are expecting a dip, but what if it comes late?

    The big problem is, if your waiting for a 10-15% decline that will surely come, what do you do if it comes when we're 20% higher from now?

    Market Timing; ask Warren Buffet........ it doesn't work.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Well Hello Demon,
    I'm glad that you revealed this chart. It clearly shows when the panic began, but it doesn't show the complete right side of the chart.

    A year ago I was touting DOW 30,000, was I wrong? Yes, I was indeed mistaken. My price target should have been 36,000.

    36,000 (that I called over a month ago) is still a quite conservative estimate. I was quite bullish throughout this whole pandemic period, and I am still.

    Would another 40% drop change my thinking... no

    38500, by Thanksgiving 2021.
    lol

    Not to worry, i'll take advantage of the opportunities you cant see

    **Demon73 MARKET CALL**
    Dow 40k then 50k then 50,001 then 150k and 1000k and above!!!
    There may be the odd 1-99% retracement along the way.


    Now I can bask in the glory of being right whilst chowing down on the coattailers like yourself

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big B View Post
    Must be you haven't looked at what the US markets have been doing since Biden was elected. Looks like another record day for the Dow today.

    I like this and will file it away for when the market plunges the other way---because "what the the US markets have been doing since Biden was elected"....cuts both ways.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turbowerks View Post
    The older i get the more shit gets in the blades...but im still here, just keep speeding up the fam so not too much sticks.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    does it work, as some point you run out of H.P.


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