New higher Tariffs from trade talks
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  1. #1
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    Default New higher Tariffs from trade talks

    The former thread is to me just a wash. It started out with baiting Jews and stooped to new lows of incivility and non professional decorum.

    The thread is closed feel free to start a new one.

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    I've just reread the first 20 or so posts in the now closed thread. I didn't read anything about "baiting Jews".

    In fact IMO most of the "new lows of incivility and non professional decorum" came from, and were started by, the "moderator". No, not your predecessor.

    spinit, you're obviously in favour of tariffs imposed but we just don't all agree with you.

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    I've just read the last 3 pages and nothing looks untoward to me.
    You okay Spinit?

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    That is because you can not see it because I deleted it.

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    Yes I am fine the thread started on page 1 with that I started going through the thread because of hostility undue directed at me. Specific to moderation by a recurring group who for some time contributed to the trashing of this forum.

    #9 FYI. Gordon I think it is time to follow through with your resolution to avoid the people here and haunt somewhere else.

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    Moderator, you are over moderating. There was nothing in that thread that was untoward. (Yes, I've been following it closely.)

    Please allow adults (us) to express our opinions.

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    I worked with Jews and Arabs at the level of engineer. I concluded that they mostly hate each other and can't even sit across from each other a conference table with not a dirty look at each other. Other than that they both are very smart, responsible to their work and job, hard working and a valuable asset. IMHO .......Go figure.

    Ops, I hope this is not out of line..

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    See this Gordon,
    and you thought Leigh was difficult.
    You are just a troublemaker..... but I sort of like troublemakers. One has to have somebody to argue against or life would be boring.
    Nothing is black and white but my side is always correct.
    It is interesting how you get people revved up when your views are not all that radical.
    A lifelong talent? Where you top on the debate team? I applaud it.

    Spinit,
    As a moderator and a participant it begins to look as though you are not separating the roles.
    Which will be a hard task indeed but I urge a very large amount of tolerance. Don't let your emotions get out in front of wise thinking.
    Bob

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    There is no question that the tariffs are a tax on the American People. Most people wont see the full 25%, as it is on the initial import price only. Depending on what you buy, where, there may be an importer, a wholesaler, and then a retailer, or 2 of those, or only one of those- but each will mark up the price. If the price gets doubled from the import price, as some things do, then the tax is only 12.5% of the retail price. Some things will be marked up less, in which case the tax is a higher percentage of retail. For instance, the price of Washers and Dryers has gone up about 10% to 12% since the tariffs on them was put in place.
    But, one way or another, SOMEBODY in the USA is paying the tax.

    It may be the importer or retailer, who delay raising prices, and eat the tax.
    It may be the final customer.

    However, in the case of manufacturers, those of us who are not employees, but actually write the checks for materials- we pay all the tax.
    So it is a bit more noticeable. Actually, when the tariff was 12%, my costs went up on average 20%. I have yet to see how much they will go up when the tariffs are 25%.

    In my business, I use very little chinese raw materials- but the steel and aluminum tariffs affect many, but not all, other countries that sell metals to us. I believe Brazil and South Korea are exempt. Both Brazilian and Korean shows up with some regularity at my local steel distributor.

    BUT- and its a big but- ALL steel and aluminum (and stainless) prices went up with the tariffs, even on domestically produced metals.
    So If I buy US made steel, I dont pay a tax, the way I would on the Turkish or Russian stuff I have gotten in the past few years- instead, I just pay added profit to Nucor or other "US" mills.
    This has added a few jobs to the US steel industry- although, at an estimated cost of $900,000 per job.
    Trump'''s steel tariffs cost US consumers close to $900,000 per job, analysis finds | Fox Business


    (remember, a sizeable percentage of "US Made" steel, probably around a third of it, is made by foreign owned mills- so the steel is just as "american" as a made in Tennessee Nissan Pickup, or a BMW X3 made in South Carolina).

    So- these tariffs benefit the US government, by bringing in between $62 Billion and $120 Billion in new tax revenue from US consumers and manufacturers. Predictions vary depending on the economist, but those figures are PER YEAR. Big tax hike, will help to offset the lost revenue from last years big tax cut.

    And these tariffs benefit some US manufacturers, who will raise prices to match the chinese price plus tariffs.
    Nobody is going to leave money on table by undercutting the Chinese. No profits there. We have already seen that with every industry that was affected by the first round of tariffs- all costs went up on washers and dryers, or on steel, or aluminum, domestic or imported.

    Of course, lots and lots of things are just not made domestically. So if Nike shifts production of shoes from China, it will be to Bangladesh or Vietnam, not the USA. And, since their made in China competitors are now more expensive due to tariffs, Nike can bump up their profits on the Vietnamese shoes, and make more money. US workers dont benefit, either in wages, or in costs of goods, but many "US" companies that manufacture offshore will see increased profits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    If the price gets doubled from the import price, as some things do, then the tax is only 12.5% of the retail price.
    To clarify this a little, the tax percentage has dropped but the bite on the buyer has increased a bunch ...

    For example, cost of goods at the port is $100. Duty is 4%. Cost to seller is $104. He doubles that, cost to buyer is $208.

    With 25% tariff, goods still cost $100. Duty is now $25. Cost to seller is $125. He doubles it to $250.

    The tax percentage has dropped but the cost to the buyer has increased by 16%. Yes that's lowered the tax percentage but it's a bigger chunk than the tariff itself costs. The $25 tariff ends up being a $32 increase, in this example.

    If there were a plan behind this, other than just a big increase in taxes, you could understand and either be for it or agin it. But this is just stoopid, from a point of view of trade. It's going to achieve nothing except raise costs. That big tax cut everyone was so happy about just went up in smoke. Plus we now get to pay tens of billions to the soybean farmers to cover Trump's boner move.

    The days of the US throwing its weight around like this are over. Have been for quite a while.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    With 25% tariff, goods still cost $100. Duty is now $25. Cost to seller is $125. He doubles it to $250.
    Not going to address anything else in the discussion but a Chinese seller has the option of lowering his price to keep from being priced out of competiveness.
    Recently lost a job that was set up on a screw machine for 6 years. Customer found a Chinese company to make the parts cheaper. Maybe the customer will come back if the Chinese company does not lower the price to offset the tariff.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredC View Post
    Not going to address anything else in the discussion but a Chinese seller has the option of lowering his price to keep from being priced out of competiveness.
    Recently lost a job that was set up on a screw machine for 6 years. Customer found a Chinese company to make the parts cheaper. Maybe the customer will come back if the Chinese company does not lower the price to offset the tariff.
    Agreed, that's how it's supposed to work....Probably though, your customer
    will spend more money on "K Street" and a lobbyist to get an exemption
    for said chinese supplier.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredC View Post
    Not going to address anything else in the discussion but a Chinese seller has the option of lowering his price to keep from being priced out of competiveness.
    Recently lost a job that was set up on a screw machine for 6 years. Customer found a Chinese company to make the parts cheaper. Maybe the customer will come back if the Chinese company does not lower the price to offset the tariff.
    So you figure they are going to not eat so that trumpski can make his point?

    I think not

    It is the US company that pays the tariff, then either passes it on to the consumer, or attempts to eat it, anyway you slice it, money out of US taxpayers hide.

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    Remember- only about 15% of the Chinese GDP is exports.
    And, of that 15%, only 19% of it is to the USA.
    So, as a percentage of Chinese GDP, all US purchases are about 3% of their GDP.

    If they dont decide to lower their export prices to account for our tariff, the other 80% of their exports are still there. And, frankly, why would they lower their prices to the USA? What would the other 80% of their customers say if they did? They would, of course, demand a discount too.
    That aint happening.

    We like to think we, as 5% of the world population, are really important, but, every year, we are less important, even to US companies.
    GM sold 3 million cars in China last year, and 2 million in the USA.
    They export Buicks and Caddies from China to the USA.
    They are not going to lower the price of made in China Cadillacs to US consumers- why would they?
    Their market share in the US has been steadily falling, while their profits from China go up.
    If a US company isnt going to lower prices for US consumers to match the tariffs, why would a Chinese one?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredC View Post
    Not going to address anything else in the discussion but a Chinese seller has the option of lowering his price to keep from being priced out of competiveness.
    Recently lost a job that was set up on a screw machine for 6 years. Customer found a Chinese company to make the parts cheaper. Maybe the customer will come back if the Chinese company does not lower the price to offset the tariff.
    Depends on how much you lost the job by.
    Most work that went over did so by a fair margin so the tariff won't bring it back.
    Bob

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    Trump just dropped the tariffs on steel and aluminum from Mexico and Canada. It will be interesting to see how, if at all, that affects retail prices on steel.

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    People raise prices due to taxes or commodity increases on APT, cobalt or etc.
    Rarely (if ever) do I see them give this back when the base supply price goes down.
    I've asked CEOs about this in the past. Sometimes a blank stare, other's more honest about not giving up the gains without very serious competitive pressure.
    Some have done the extra as a surcharge as to not look bad, others have put it into the base price. Different strategies.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    People raise prices due to taxes or commodity increases on APT, cobalt or etc.
    Rarely (if ever) do I see them give this back when the base supply price goes down.
    I am pretty sure we are still paying UPS the "fuel surcharge" from 1974

    @FredC - Chinese suppliers are not dropping the prices, they don't have to and they aren't going to. And your CEO is never going to bring back the work because this way he has no responsibilities. All he has to do is issue a purchase order and the cost increases are paid by the customer.

    No factory, no employees, no state local and federal taxes, no OSHA, no fire dept inspections, no state Labor Board, no pensions medical or dental plans, no discrimination suits, no sexual harassment lawsuits, just drag them numbers from one cell on the spreadsheet to another.

    They would never admit this, but it's the truth.

    Basically, you now have a new > 25% tax without having any say in the matter. Instituted by one guy, who has orange hair.

    Cool

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    One thing these tariffs seem certain to do is help Mexico.
    Trump’s Trade War Is Making Mexico Great - POLITICO Magazine

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    One thing these tariffs seem certain to do is help Mexico.
    Don't think so .... well, a little but not hugely

    Mexico is too corrupt and unsafe. India has been trying to do the China trick for thirty years and failed. Africa ? ha ha. Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, yeah right. Tiny little places. And the US companies already moved all their shit to China. They would have to buy all new to do that trick again, they cannot move it out. And they would also have to give up a bigger market than the US is.

    Trouble with prognostications from political/economic writers is they don't have their feet on the ground. They think "Oh, just move the factory !"

    Right.

    This oughta get interesting


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