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  1. #1641
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I do not believe anything. I live in China and do importing and exporting. I know people at Shell and some other pretty big woofies. (Wholly Owned Foreign Enterprise, China has a bunch of categories for businesses). Some of our customers are large State-Owned Enterprises. I have friends who sell real estate overseas to wealthy Chineses. I am up to my ears in the currency exchange problem. If there really were (reputable) "offshore yuan" then I would be in heaven. So would a whole bunch of other Chinese people.

    But there isn't.
    There is. But you have to be large enough to do so through investment banks and OTC brokers. In other cases you have to be qualified to do it. I'm not going to post another link, because I know you won't bother reading it, but you can lookup swaps/cash markets for CNH/forwards, or other traded products. Your vacation money is a different story. The problem is not getting the yuan into dollars - the problem is getting the yuan out of China's purview and free to trade for those dollars. That is where the capital control is.

    I feel like you're misunderstanding what I'm saying - if so, go back and re-read what I said - they have capital controls. Nobody is disputing that. What I am disputing is that this means they can simply do whatever they want without repercussion, and say whatever the currency is worth in any scenario without any repercussion. Why?

    They currently let the yuan traded offshore float within a band. They do not say it is worth x - it is allowed to go within a band, and they regularly intervene to keep it within that band. You said they do - they do not. The PBOC has to trade in and out to keep it in that band with other currencies, as well as using options, swaps, forwards, etc.

    This is I think the third time I've said this, but they could say that it is worth x and no one can trade at different prices. However, in the past, this is usually done once they're already in trouble. Otherwise, they'd already be doing it right now.

    Lastly, even if they do this and were doing fine and somehow decided to go backwards instead of forward, it does not even then get them out of the water. If that isn't currency manipulation, idk what is. Other governments could simply say "ok, your currency is 30% overvalued - anything coming from China is subject to a 30% tariff, and any transaction of yuan is subject to the same". It would be doing the exact same thing China would be doing in this scenario. They could also freeze assets from Chinese nationals/companies in their countries. They could even go so far as to sanction them outright.

    We're random people talking on the internet. You said China is not "stoopid". Do you really think all the people that follow this stuff every day do not see this, either? The people in the government, at the banks and hedge funds, etc., blah blah? Of course they do. They're not stupid, either.

    China does not have some incredible huge power over everyone in the sense of their currency. They are at the whim of what everyone else does.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    There is. But you have to be large enough to do so through investment banks and OTC brokers.
    Okay, you've copped out on an amount small enough for me to do personally. But .. ahem. I know people at Shell, Ford and GM. They do not use your "investment banks and OTC brokers" either. They can't. You better believe they would if they could.

    Sorry.

    btw, in case people don't know, even branches of well-known banks within China, such as HSBC and Citibank (and I saw an ICBC in Oakland, dropped in and asked the manager just for the heck of it, answer was "no") are not actually the same bank. They cannot transfer money from the China branch to the overseas branch. They are separated entities. So much for that convenience ...

    China does not have some incredible huge power over everyone in the sense of their currency. They are at the whim of what everyone else does.
    You are mistaken. That's exactly what they are not because they have the balls to stand up to the bankers of the world. To me, that is a very smart move. To the bankers of the world, it is infuriating

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I live in China and do importing and exporting.
    Why do you give your location as the UK?

    Same with Thermite. He lives in China too but gives his location as Virginia.

    Maybe I should change my location to Magic Kingdom?

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  5. #1644
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Maybe I should change my location to Magic Kingdom?
    OH LOOK! Can't just stop with the bragging of Denmark!

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    You are mistaken. That's exactly what they are not because they have the balls to stand up to the bankers of the world. To me, that is a very smart move. To the bankers of the world, it is infuriating
    Woodrow Wilson is definitely up there for worst US presidents.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Okay, you've copped out on an amount small enough for me to do personally. But .. ahem. I know people at Shell, Ford and GM. They do not use your "investment banks and OTC brokers" either. They can't. You better believe they would if they could.

    Sorry.
    They do. GM, Ford, and Shell all hedge and exchange currencies. So you can drop the "I know people" bit, because either they don't exist or they aren't involved in treasury at any of those, or trading at Shell.

    This is why swaps/forwards markets exist - you need to hedge foreign exchange/interest rate risk.

    In fact, what's funny is that this is exactly what China does as part of its market operations with the PBOC. They use these same instruments to affect the exchange rate and keep it within the band.

    OTC means it's done between two counterparties - you need an ISDA for that. You are not going to find a webpage through some clearing firm/broker that is going to get you into it. You need money, not your undies and a 50k personal account through TD Ameritrade. Whole different ballgame. Likewise, banks also change currency outright. It's the same as the foreign exchange counter you see at the airport, except it's for clients of the banks. This is done in merchant banking or in the investment bank.

    Even then, there are exchange-cleared products that do this, although my guess is the volume is low since these sorts of things are predominantly OTC even outside the yuan.

    For the stuff that is traded through an exchange, here's an example: Hong Kong exchange approved to clear USD/CNH cross currency swaps - Reuters

    Or here: Citi Completes the First CNH/USD Cross-Currency Swap Based on CNH HIBOR

    Most of the US dollar trade in this isn't done through an exchange - it's done through the OTC market. It's the same for the offshore yuan.

    Also, think about this: anyone exporting to China from the US has costs in dollars. Do you think they never get dollars back? Come on, man.
    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    You are mistaken. That's exactly what they are not because they have the balls to stand up to the bankers of the world. To me, that is a very smart move. To the bankers of the world, it is infuriating
    K. Explain to me how the last example I gave would give them anything to stand on. Let's say they fix the rate offshore and onshore together suddenly. Other people know that this is being done to prevent the yuan going down beyond what they want it to go down to. So then they impose taxes to adjust for it. Tit for tat. How is China going to get around that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Why do you give your location as the UK?
    That's as close as the drop-down choices get to Airstrip One.

    Maybe I should change my location to Magic Kingdom?
    Or the Napa Nuthouse

    btw, thermite does not live in China. He apparently lived (past tense) for some time in Hong Kong (but only when Hong Kong was still under England's thumb, not when it was Chinese.) So his views of China are slanted to the Hong Kong / Brit view, not mainstream thought in the People's Republic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CAMasochism View Post
    OH LOOK! Can't just stop with the bragging of Denmark!
    We thank you for the compliment. Apparently when I write "Magic Kingdom" you automatically think "Denmark".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Why do you give your location as the UK?

    Same with Thermite. He lives in China too but gives his location as Virginia.

    Maybe I should change my location to Magic Kingdom?
    Just so long as it's not United Kingdom.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    They do. GM, Ford, and Shell all hedge and exchange currencies. So you can drop the "I know people" bit, because either they don't exist or they aren't involved in treasury at any of those, or trading at Shell.
    Just sent an email, made me laugh - Shell, Beijing, this guy got the head guy sent to prison for corruption (he didn't want to but the fool included him in an email that could have implicated him):

    Quote Originally Posted by shell oil bigshot
    You are right and the guy who said it's easy to trade RMB is a fucking liar. Sure, if you have a few grand it is easy, but certainly not if you have serious money. First of all, people get caught and then you will really see and feel tugboats up the inside passages. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, fraud is rampant. You'd really have a tough time explaining to corporate auditors how you lost a million bucks.
    You are not thinking straight, or don't understand the mechanisms. Let's take a company - say Volkswagen, just for fun. They sell 800,000 cars - IN RMB.

    They put 80 million rmb in the bank. They pay 60 million rmb in costs. They have twenty million rmb - IN A CHINESE BANK because there is no other way they can do it. Their buyers are not going to send euros overseas to Germany (all they are allowed to spend in foreign currency is $50,000 per year anyhow.)

    So VW now has twenty million rmb in a Chinese bank - how do you think they are going to give it to your OTC currency exchangers ?

    They can't. The Chinese bank where they have their money will not do it. They cannot send it to Hong Kong to use your hongkongnese money changers because the Chinese bank will not do it.

    What should they do ? Take the cash out of ICBC and put it into a truck and try to smuggle it into Hong Kong ?

    If you believe that shit you are crazy. As a business you cannot do business without banking and the banks will not exchange currency without the proper paperwork. They sure as hell will not send your rmb to some flybynight "offshore yuan" fraudster. They simply will not do it.

    This is why swaps/forwards markets exist - you need to hedge foreign exchange/interest rate risk.
    Not when your own government is doing that for you. Banks are worthless, compared to the power of an entire country. That's what Beijing does. It makes exchange rates reliable.

    OTC means it's done between two counterparties - Likewise, banks also change currency outright. It's the same as the foreign exchange counter you see at the airport, except it's for clients of the banks. This is done in merchant banking or in the investment bank.
    You don't seem to comprehend. The banks in China are owned and operated by the government. They exchange with other banks, sure - AT THE RATE BEIJING CHOOSES, or they don't do it at all.

    They have billions of dollars that they get from exports. They don't need to buy dollars. They have the opposite problem, what to do with the damn things. They are no good internally, so they use dollars to buy stuff internationally or hand it over to WOFE's in exchange for the profits the woofers made internally.

    For the stuff that is traded through an exchange, here's an example: Hong Kong exchange approved to clear USD/CNH cross currency swaps - Reuters
    Right, a crock of shit. Some bogus crap thought up by the HK stock market because they aren't making any money peddling shit stocks these days. They get rmb from mainland tourists (hong kong uses HK dollars, not rmb), so they can play with that - until Beijing clamps down on it. But the "send your money from the mainland to a Hong Kong bank then do what you want" trick dried up several years ago.

    This is just some hokey game, not a real thing. There is no "offshore yuan". It's a fraud.

    Also, think about this: anyone exporting to China from the US has costs in dollars. Do you think they never get dollars back? Come on, man.
    I don't have to think. This is what I do for living for the past ten years. I can tell you exactly what happens. You sell something in China. They go to their bank and fill out the forms to exchange the currency. If approved, the China bank wires the money to the US seller or it's done by l/c. When everything is complete then there is an excess of dollars in the US from the wire transfer or l/c. That's the profit, in dollars. Exchanged by a China bank, in China, at the rate decided by Beijing. The rmb from the buyer goes to the Chinaa bank, is exchanged into dollars or euros, then goes via wire to a US bank. Pretty simple and all controlled by the China bank. No "offshore yuan" involved at any step.

    Explain to me how the last example I gave would give them anything to stand on. Let's say they fix the rate offshore and onshore together suddenly. Other people know that this is being done to prevent the yuan going down beyond what they want it to go down to. So then they impose taxes to adjust for it. Tit for tat. How is China going to get around that?
    China doesn't need anything to stand on. If you don't like the exchange rate, then don't buy. China is the sole source for a whole lot of things. The US banking community has been squealing "manipulation !" for decades. It's crap. China decides what it's currency is worth, just like a shop in the US decides what its shop rate is, and that's that. If you don't like it, go somewhere else. They don't need to explain themselves to you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    Just so long as it's not United Kingdom.
    You make it too easy. Back in the 60ties when folk emigrated from the UK it was called "The Brain Drain".

    There's even more reason now to leave and I can't think of a single reason for going back. OK maybe as a tourist as my money buys much more just now

    brexit.jpg ratshipa.jpg

    If you want me to stop me enjoying replying to your idiotic posts stop posting your remarks directed at me. You're not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

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    To nyc123. Have you ever traded with China in as bought and sold?

  13. #1652
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    You make it too easy. Back in the 60ties when folk emigrated from the UK it was called "The Brain Drain".

    There's even more reason now to leave and I can't think of a single reason for going back. OK maybe as a tourist as my money buys much more just now

    brexit.jpg ratshipa.jpg
    The brain drain was all about taxation being too high and has no relevance to my post whatsoever,please try again.
    Many,many EU members are signing up for permanent UK residency so it can't be all bad.
    If the UK is so bad why come here on holiday? Go somewhere that you really appreciate. America?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    You make it too easy. Back in the 60ties when folk emigrated from the UK it was called "The Brain Drain".

    There's even more reason now to leave and I can't think of a single reason for going back. OK maybe as a tourist as my money buys much more just now

    brexit.jpg ratshipa.jpg

    If you want me to stop me enjoying replying to your idiotic posts stop posting your remarks directed at me. You're not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
    Horton,

    Years ago you called me out for for a geopolitical observation about the decline of the British empire.

    “You have insulted an entire people.”
    Now the above..

    Lost your standards or never had them?
    That post is sour and insulting “to an entire people”.
    You should know better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    The brain drain was all about taxation being too high and has no relevance to my post whatsoever,please try again.
    Many,many EU members are signing up for permanent UK residency so it can't be all bad.
    If the UK is so bad why come here on holiday? Go somewhere that you really appreciate. America?
    The "Brain Drain" wasn't about taxation. It was about industry in the UK going downhill.

    I never said "it was all bad" but certainly not "all good" either.

    What makes you think I'd go to the UK on holiday? 3 times the past few years. Twice to visit relatives (in Scotland) and once to London. Business. OK the wife and I did see the sights while we were in London.

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    Is the departure of John Bolton likely to cause any softening of the US's diplomatic stance on trade issues?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    The "Brain Drain" wasn't about taxation. It was about industry in the UK going downhill.

    I never said "it was all bad" but certainly not "all good" either.

    What makes you think I'd go to the UK on holiday? 3 times the past few years. Twice to visit relatives (in Scotland) and once to London. Business. OK the wife and I did see the sights while we were in London.
    Read up and find out that the 1960's brain drain WAS about taxation.
    What makes me think you would holiday in the UK? Because you said so in post 1650. Those are your words,not mine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    The brain drain was all about taxation being too high and has no relevance to my post whatsoever,please try again.
    Many,many EU members are signing up for permanent UK residency so it can't be all bad.
    If the UK is so bad why come here on holiday? Go somewhere that you really appreciate. America?
    You mean the ones who have been living there for 25 years and are worried about being kicked out post Brexit?

    Yeah, those ones

    foolishness

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    You mean the ones who have been living there for 25 years and are worried about being kicked out post Brexit?

    Yeah, those ones

    foolishness
    No,they need to have lived here for five years and then it is a mere formality to be accepted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    No,they need to have lived here for five years and then it is a mere formality to be accepted.
    Why please do post those statistics

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Is the departure of John Bolton likely to cause any softening of the US's diplomatic stance on trade issues?
    Probably.

    I guess we are losing out last great chance of a US colony in the UK...

    John Bolton doesn’t want a trade deal with the UK – he wants to colonise us | Simon Tisdall | Opinion | The Guardian


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