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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    What makes me think you would holiday in the UK? Because you said so in post 1650. Those are your words,not mine.
    What I wrote was "There's even more reason now to leave and I can't think of a single reason for going back. OK maybe as a tourist as my money buys much more just now."

    You get that to mean I will go? You're hopeless! Get someone to explain irony to you. No it isn't a metal

    You must use hours of your time reading what I post and following me around. Are you immobile and can't move around IRL?

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    9/11 day today.

    “September 11 is one of our worst days but it brought out the best in us. It unified us as a country and showed our charitable instincts and reminded us of what we stood for and stand for.”
    – Senator Lamar Alexander

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Why please do post those statistics
    You want them then you look them up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    What I wrote was "There's even more reason now to leave and I can't think of a single reason for going back. OK maybe as a tourist as my money buys much more just now."

    You get that to mean I will go? You're hopeless! Get someone to explain irony to you. No it isn't a metal

    You must use hours of your time reading what I post and following me around. Are you immobile and can't move around IRL?
    Of course I take hours reading what you post, you type so slowly.
    I think you are most unfair picking on me, you said you were having fun and it is not for me to stop children enjoying themselves. I was just trying to help you out when you got bored with your Lego.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    :

    You are not thinking straight, or don't understand the mechanisms. Let's take a company - say Volkswagen, just for fun. They sell 800,000 cars - IN RMB.

    They put 80 million rmb in the bank. They pay 60 million rmb in costs. They have twenty million rmb - IN A CHINESE BANK because there is no other way they can do it. Their buyers are not going to send euros overseas to Germany (all they are allowed to spend in foreign currency is $50,000 per year anyhow.)

    So VW now has twenty million rmb in a Chinese bank - how do you think they are going to give it to your OTC currency exchangers ?

    They can't. The Chinese bank where they have their money will not do it. They cannot send it to Hong Kong to use your hongkongnese money changers because the Chinese bank will not do it.

    What should they do ? Take the cash out of ICBC and put it into a truck and try to smuggle it into Hong Kong ?

    If you believe that shit you are crazy. As a business you cannot do business without banking and the banks will not exchange currency without the proper paperwork. They sure as hell will not send your rmb to some flybynight "offshore yuan" fraudster. They simply will not do it.
    Ok. I'm done explaining myself. You and everyone else can read these links that make it clear you're full of shit.

    They do not just keep that 20 mm rmb there. They can trade it back into other currencies. Companies are different from people. I've been saying this over and over and over again.

    https://www.cmegroup.com/education/f...nbi-market.pdf

    Participating banks are allowed to convert foreign currency into RMB and vice-versa by buying or selling the foreign currency with BOC at the onshore exchange rate if the RMB is related to trade flows.

    Who do those participating banks get foreign currency from? You guessed it - the global OTC market for FX, where companies and others exchange currencies. Banks are the largest participants.

    And here's the offshore market in Hong Kong - a document directly from the Hong Kong government.

    They calculate the rate by the transactions done by participants.

    Transactions that meet the following criteria will be used –
    - executed through an Approved Money Broker that has dedicated FX spot business in the relevant currency pairs;
    - having a transacted amount of at least US$1 million; and
    - transacted between 10:45 am and 11:15 am Hong Kong time.

    http://www.tma.org.hk/NewsPhoto/cons..._(03may16).pdf

    Even though HK is offshore, that isn't even all of the offshore market. That first link I gave you explains,

    "Hong Kong now stands out as the largest offshore RMB trading center with approximately 73% of all RMB payments passing via Hong Kong facilities."

    Again, this idea that you are promoting that they can only transfer 50k is incorrect. There are different rules for the big corps.

    "Offshore FX market participants are, however, restricted from participating in the onshore CNY market with some exceptions. Specifically, Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs) are granted quotas to participate in specified onshore trading and investment activities. Certain corporate entities are allowed to participate
    in foreign direct investment (FDI) in PRC proper. Offshore corporate entities are permitted to transact in CNY if the FX exchange is part of a cross-border trade settlement process. By the same token, onshore (or PRC domiciled) entities are generally constrained from participating in the CNH marketplace."


    This is common sense. Do you really think billions of dollars are sent over and no one gets anything more than 50k back? You are conflating what you, Joe Schmoe, can do as opposed to corporations and other large entities with money.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    You don't seem to comprehend. The banks in China are owned and operated by the government. They exchange with other banks, sure - AT THE RATE BEIJING CHOOSES, or they don't do it at all.

    They have billions of dollars that they get from exports. They don't need to buy dollars. They have the opposite problem, what to do with the damn things. They are no good internally, so they use dollars to buy stuff internationally or hand it over to WOFE's in exchange for the profits the woofers made internally.
    This is so incredibly ignorant it's almost not even worth replying to. I've explained repeatedly that they have to have dollars to control their exchange rate. They do not set it at x amount. It is determined by the market. It floats within a band. They have to buy/sell other currencies to keep it within that band. Other countries around the world do the same thing. You are flat out wrong.

    China economy: How PBOC controls the yuan (RMB) amid trade war

    "if the offshore rate deviates too far from the onshore figure, the central bank will intervene to dampen volatility and prop up the currency using its vast foreign-exchange reserves, which was more than $3 trillion as of July. The PBOC also relies on state-owned banks to enter the offshore market and swap dollars for yuan.

    "To prevent the offshore yuan from depreciating too quickly, the Chinese central bank also issues short-term yuan-denominated bills in Hong Kong that essentially mop up liquidity from the market and raise borrowing costs for the yuan, making it more expensive for people to short the renminbi.


    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    This is just some hokey game, not a real thing. There is no "offshore yuan". It's a fraud.
    Obviously not. Unless CNBC, the HK govt, and the CME are all wrong. People can pick who they'll believe. Them or some random on the internet. This isn't drawing a conclusion from something - this is just a binary yes or no. They say it exists and explain how it does. You say it doesn't and give hocus pocus anecdotes that make no sense. All the offshore yuan is is a different trading regime for the same currency. It is more liberalized than onshore. It is more determined by the market. It is not a scenario where they simply say "this yuan is equal to x dollars". It floats within a band. The market helps determine that, as it does for lots of currencies around the world in the same way. They need dollars and other currencies to help them intervene and keep it within the band they and everyone else has set.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I don't have to think. This is what I do for living for the past ten years. I can tell you exactly what happens. You sell something in China. They go to their bank and fill out the forms to exchange the currency. If approved, the China bank wires the money to the US seller or it's done by l/c. When everything is complete then there is an excess of dollars in the US from the wire transfer or l/c. That's the profit, in dollars. Exchanged by a China bank, in China, at the rate decided by Beijing. The rmb from the buyer goes to the Chinaa bank, is exchanged into dollars or euros, then goes via wire to a US bank. Pretty simple and all controlled by the China bank. No "offshore yuan" involved at any step.
    Nope. That's because you're dealing in peanuts. Re-read above.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    China doesn't need anything to stand on. If you don't like the exchange rate, then don't buy. China is the sole source for a whole lot of things. The US banking community has been squealing "manipulation !" for decades. It's crap. China decides what it's currency is worth, just like a shop in the US decides what its shop rate is, and that's that. If you don't like it, go somewhere else. They don't need to explain themselves to you.
    That was not an answer. If the US and other countries impose a tax equivalent to the overvaluation of yuan, how is China going to get around that? If China is taxing everyone else by keeping their yuan overvalued, and the others impose a tax to do the same, the answer is they can't do anything economically. They stand to lose. Face it, they control jack.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    To nyc123. Have you ever traded with China in as bought and sold?
    No, have you lived in the US for 20+ years? No? Ok, you don't get to talk about US politics anymore. Have you worked in UK customs? No? Ok, you don't get to talk about how it will affect Britain anymore. Do you work for the EU? No? Ok, then you don't get to have an opinion on that, either, because you're not educated enough as those people directly doing this are.

    Remember this recent blunder that you never admitted you were wrong about?
    Blast from the past - Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    The EU would NEVER move any company to Turkey or even help doing so.
    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    #2. You are 100% wrong and talking from your arse. YOUR beloved EU did fund Ford in Turkey,.....Also, this was the question asked in the EU Parliament:-
    Ford has announced its intention to close its last UK assembly plant, in Swaythling, Southampton, with the loss of 1 400 jobs. Production of Ford’s Transit Van will switch from Swaythling to Turkey, having been based in Southampton — the company’s last UK vehicle assembly plant — for 40 years.
    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Still waiting for your official reply Gordo...
    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Hold your breath while I think about my reply barbie.
    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    So that's it then.
    No hand in the air to say "yeah, I was talking shit", or "I never realised that".
    Just yet again a nasty/bitchy/snarky/trying, soooo very trying, to be funny reply is all you can muster.
    Which I suppose is a step up from your usual ignore tactic, hoping the discussion goes away.
    I might be a "newbie" - as if I care about being a veteran in a forum - but I can already see why people don't like you. You have no bone in this and you added nothing to the discussion. So why comment?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    I might be a "newbie" - as if I care about being a veteran in a forum - but I can already see why people don't like you.
    I can't see you lasting long enough to be more than a newbie. Some don't like me, I don't like some. It's the same in the real world. It's not a popularity contest and I sleep well at nights.

    There is a handful who seem to be on a mission to see if they can wind me up. If I can keep them occupied with that then some other individual gets an easier life.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    They do not just keep that 20 mm rmb there. They can trade it back into other currencies. Companies are different from people. I've been saying this over and over and over again.
    This is the reality you refuse to accept : No, they can not. The money is in a bank in China. The ONLY way to get it out is to do what the bank in China allows. ALL the banks in China are controlled by government rules. Even ones with the same name (HSBC, Citibank, etc) are NOT the same bank as they are outside. They are not connected and CAN'T transfer money except via the government rules. It ALL has to be approved by SAFE. Anyone who has ever dealt with SAFE knows they go out of their way to be unpredictable, arbitrary, and obnoxious. When you say this shit it is obvious you don't have a clue about the realities of China.

    THEY WILL NOT DO WHAT YOU SAY.

    Period, end of discussion. I do not know why you can't understand this.


    And yes, I mistakenly clicked on one of the links you provide, they are full of shit, just like they were in 2006. It's crap -- and gobbledygoook as well, if you have ever done any importing, exporting, or currency exchange within China - just like all the kowtowing to the brilliant quants and the new bustless market with advanced vehicles like ... CDO's ! The wonder drug !

    Besides that, I had to block twenty-three worthless asshole advertising and tracking links from that one click. Reputable people don't have that garbage on their website.

    Sorry. Your "financial press" at work, sowing horseshit on the plebs. It's a lie. Big companies do not do any of this shit (the quote from a Shell VP was real, but no way would I reveal his name. Foreigners in China have too many stories to tell.)

    Buy dirt ! They aren't making any more of it ! Take out a second on your home ! For every good job sent overseas, three or four will be created at home !

    If you can't recognize the Big Lie yet, I feel sorry for you.

    If the US and other countries impose a tax equivalent to the overvaluation of yuan, how is China going to get around that?
    China doesn't have to get around that. Go to a store - any store - and look at the label. Made in China. You explain to me how you are going to do without Walmart, Home Depot, Amazon, iPhones, iPads, computers, light bulbs, dishes, silverware, zincs, electric outlets, switches, sheets, pillowcases, sawhorses, microwaves, electric hand tools, conduit, axes, crescent wrenches, cameras, garden hoses ... you name it. Don't buy anything from China for one month then tell me about "what China needs to do." The US is totally dependent on Chinese imports.

    Could that change ? Sure, but I doubt that Americans will put up with ten years of privation just to enforce some banker's fantasy of getting revenge for China's unwillingness to let them control yet another country.

    Sorry, not gonna fly. A better question is what could you do without any products from China. Who do you think would pay that tax ? When there is one supplier, then it's US citizens who will pay that tax. Supply chains don't move instantly. It took more than twenty years to get to this place. Going back would take longer.

    Good plan, Bozo.

    (btw, the complaint is that rmb is undervalued, not overvalued. As if those ignorant assholes behind LIBOR ((mentioned in one of your links, by the way, made me laugh, LIBOR is an exposed fraud)) and Moody's ratings of CDO's had ANY right to decide what a currency is "worth". Some day you may recognize that these people are mobile turds disguised as humans.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Tis is the reeality you refuse to accept : No, they can not. The money is in a bank in China. The ONLY way to get it out is to do what the bank in China allows. ALL the banks in China are controlled by government rules. Even ones with the same name (HSBC, Citibank, etc) are NOT the same bank as they are outside. They are not connected and CAN'T transfer money except via the government rules.It ALL has to be approved by SAFE.

    THEY WILL NOT DO WHAT YOU SAY.

    Period, end of discussion. I do not know why you can't understand this.
    You're the only one not understanding. I've said over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over again that they have capital controls. That is what you are talking about. However, they do not limit all transfers to 50k. They do for you, Joe Blow, but not for everyone. People need to move large sums of money and they don't impose that same control on them.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    And yes, I mistakenly clicked on one of the links you provide, they are full of shit, just like they were in 2006. It's crap -- and gobbledygoook as well, if you have ever done any importing, exporting, or currency exchange within China - just like all the kowtowing to the brilliant quants and the new bustless market with advanced vehicles like ... CDO's ! The wonder drug !
    So when you get called out on your bullshit, you resort to "it's all a conspiracy" and say those people were pumping CDO's - they weren't - and other assorted conspiracy talk. I almost don't even have to do anything, you just make yourself not credible.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Besides that, I had to block twenty-three worthless asshole advertising and tracking links from that one click. Reputable people don't have that garbage on their website.
    Must be CNBC, because the HK govt does not have ads, nor does the one by the CME. I think when it comes to whether something simply exists or not, they will choose to believe those people over you. This is not drawing a conclusion from something, it is not an opinion derived from something - they are saying that things are this way. It's a simple yes or no. They say yes, you say no. When it comes to believing the government, a global exchange, and a major news outlet for something that is a simple yes or no whether it exists or not, people are going to believe them over some random guy called "EmmanuelGoldstein". You would hold a lot more water in this if it were saying "it is believed that", or something that people are debating over. The only one debating this is you.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Sorry. Your "financial press" at work, sowing horseshit on the plebs. It's a lie. Big companies do not do any of this shit (the quote from a Shell VP was real, but no way would I reveal his name. Foreigners in China have too many stories to tell.)

    Buy dirt ! They aren't making any more of it ! Take out a second on your home ! For every good job sent overseas, three or four will be created at home !

    If you can't recognize the Big Lie yet, I feel sorry for you.
    Sorry, I can't hear you over all the crying you're doing.

    I guess you're also still not going to answer the question I posed to you. If China were to set its rate at a specific amount with no offshore trading or band or anything, then what will China do when other governments impose a tax to account for the overvaluation?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    You're the only one not understanding. I've said over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over again that they have capital controls. That is what you are talking about. However, they do not limit all transfers to 50k. They do for you, Joe Blow, but not for everyone. People need to move large sums of money and they don't impose that same control on them.
    Wrong. WRONG WRONG WRONG. They impose the same rules on everyone, including state-owned enterprises. We've done two million on one sale with a state-owned enterprise in Jiangsu, went thru ALL of this.

    [No, foreign companies do not get a free pass, they have even more hurdles to jump. State guys usually have some insider pull that makes it easier, not harder]

    The 50k per year is just a limit for personal currency exchange. ALL exchanges go the same route. Larger ones are even more difficult because they have to be specifically approved by SAFE. Recurring exchanges, such as GM, Ford, Shell, and so on are set up so they don't have to get permission each and every time but they MOST CERTAINLY DO FOLLOW THE SAME RULES.

    You can't get currency changed inside China without going through the government, no matter what the amount is. The only ways around it are illegal and unreliable or worse.*

    Your claims are false. You've been believing a bunch of horseshit. Yes, Hong Kong used to be able to play those games but they cannot anymore. They have a small supply of rmb from tourism and business transactions to play with but they are not the big players they were. Beijing has stopped the "send money to Hong Kong then do what you want with it" trick. I even closed my Hong Kong bank acount, it is now fairly worthless. I am not the only one. That's gone, ended. There is no "offshore yuan" for Chinese companies, and I'd be guarding my butt if I "invested" in one of these schemes from outside the country. Beijing could close the door on this instantly if they decide to. Previously they would not because those guys would be making money on it too, but under Xi Jinping, maybe not.

    It's a fraud, guy. Are you too young to remember 2009 ? Read The Big Short for a fast-paced overview. Read Taibbi for the hard-nosed facts. Finance people are criminals.

    I guess you're also still not going to answer the question I posed to you. If China were to set its rate at a specific amount with no offshore trading or band or anything, then what will China do when other governments impose a tax to account for the overvaluation?
    I asnwered this. China is the sole source for a huge amount of the consumer economy in the US. It's the US who would take a giant hit if they were so stupid as to impose a "currency manipulation" tax. China doesn't have to worry at all. They have been developing markets in Africa, South America, and Europe for a decade now. They'd hurt for a while but in the end, it's Goldman-Sachs that would have to knuckle under. The US consumer population and retail establishment would be heading to Wall Street with flaming torches and pitchforks. Canada is sobbing now, after their mentally-retarded toadying to the US over Mrs Meng. Talk to some Canadians, they regret that move sorely.

    China plays this game well and they can take privation. The US only plays for Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein, nobody gives a shit about Joe Plumber and the US is now a bunch of wailing sissies. If Joe's costs went up 35% there'd be beega beega trouble. And base-a bahll been berry berry good to me ...

    I think when it comes to whether something simply exists or not, they will choose to believe those people over you.
    Absolutely. They chose to believe Moody's over me, too.

    And look where that got them.

    Truth is truth. If you believe a liar, it's on your own head.


    * cf Bo Xilai, in prison. Gu Kaikai, in prison. Neil Heywood, dead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Is the departure of John Bolton likely to cause any softening of the US's diplomatic stance on trade issues?
    IMO, he didn't have much say on tariffs affecting China, Canada, Mexico, Europe etc.

    Might have had a say in trying even harder to isolate North Korea, Iran, and the Taliban. Bolton thought (one of the few areas where we might agree) that they wouldn't respond to Trump's deal-making charms. Turns out he was right. Even with all those "really nice letters" from Kim, he's run circles around Trump. Iran is now closer than ever to nukes. And inviting the Taliban for "secret talks" on 9-11 was maybe not the smartest move either. How do you not have the Taliban at least demonstrate they can stop the attacks, just before being willing to sign a deal??

    Where our hearts should go out is to the Donald and Fox News. Trump is now running out of former Fox News contributors to hire for key positions in his administration. Getting harder and harder to hear some blubbering commentator, and think "hey, that's someone eminently qualified to run a key part of this nation."

    Seriously, one of the qualifications for high office is being able to recruit and keep outstanding Cabinet and other officers. First we filled the Cabinet with swamp creatures. Now it's mostly temps, with Trump grasping at straws (zero interest rates, anyone) in an attempt to look better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Wrong. WRONG WRONG WRONG. They impose the same rules on everyone, including state-owned enterprises. We've done two million on one sale with a state-owned enterprise in Jiangsu, went thru ALL of this.

    [No, foreign companies do not get a free pass, they have even more hurdles to jump. State guys usually have some insider pull that makes it easier, not harder]

    The 50k per year is just a limit for personal currency exchange. ALL exchanges go the same route. Larger ones are even more difficult because they have to be specifically approved by SAFE. Recurring exchanges, such as GM, Ford, Shell, and so on are set up so they don't have to get permission each and every time but they MOST CERTAINLY DO FOLLOW THE SAME RULES.

    You can't get currency changed inside China without going through the government, no matter what the amount is. The only ways around it are illegal and unreliable or worse.*
    You're making knee-jerk reactions without reading what I've said. I said they have capital controls - they control the money going out, or try to. So you can stop repeating over and over again that they control this - you're arguing with no one here.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Your claims are false.
    Specifically tell me what claim I made that is false.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    There is no "offshore yuan" for Chinese companies, and I'd be guarding my butt if I "invested" in one of these schemes from outside the country.
    I already proved there is. There is the HK market, there's the market in London and Singapore. Really any bank can buy/sell yuan. Once it's out of the country, it's beyond their control. Again, that is why it's called the offshore market. The rules surrounding it and how prices are set is more liberalized than inside.
    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Beijing could close the door on this instantly if they decide to.
    Sure, and everyone else could impose a tax on them for cutting off flow of capital and to adjust for an overvaluation.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    It's a fraud, guy. Are you too young to remember 2009 ? Read The Big Short for a fast-paced overview. Read Taibbi for the hard-nosed facts. Finance people are criminals.
    I worked in finance. I had nothing to do with that. Not everybody in finance is some nefarious person trading CDO's and trying to fool regulators or whatever. You sound like a loon.


    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I asnwered this. China is the sole source for a huge amount of the consumer economy in the US. It's the US who would take a giant hit if they were so stupid as to impose a "currency manipulation" tax. China doesn't have to worry at all. They have been developing markets in Africa, South America, and Europe for a decade now. They'd hurt for a while but in the end, it's Goldman-Sachs that would have to knuckle under. The US consumer population and retail establishment would be heading to Wall Street with flaming torches and pitchforks. Canada is sobbing now, after their mentally-retarded toadying to the US over Mrs Meng. Talk to some Canadians, they regret that move sorely.
    I doubt it. There are already tariffs of 10 and 20% or 25% or whatever. I see no pitchforks. The reality is China is not the only place in the world. Secondly, the EU and other countries could do the same.


    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    China plays this game well and they can take privation. The US only plays for Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein, nobody gives a shit about Joe Plumber and the US is now a bunch of wailing sissies. If Joe's costs went up 35% there'd be beega beega trouble. And base-a bahll been berry berry good to me ...
    Right - there is no corruption in China. They just play for "the people".

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Absolutely. They chose to believe Moody's over me, too.
    Nope. Because that was an interpretation of what was going on. Again, this is simply a binary yes or no, it is not an opinion.

    Do they have to trade in and out of the yuan offshore to keep its value within the range they want? The answer is yes.

    Does the yuan offshore trade under a different regime than onshore trading?
    yes.

    Do they have to keep foreign exchange reserves and worry about the yuan getting too strong or too weak?
    yes.

    Can they simply impose a specific price on it and say "this is what it's worth?
    yes. They do not do that now, but they can.

    Would they then be free of any repercussion from doing so?
    No. Other countries could tax any yuan transactions and any goods from China to adjust for their set rate. For example, if the rate is believed to be approximately 30% overvalued, they could all impose a 30% tax on them. China would be screwed in exports, it would be screwed in international markets, it would be screwed in imports. Economies need this to run.

    What's funny and ironic about this is that you cite past crises where everyone said all is going well and nothing to worry about, while a minority said the fundamentals didn't make sense. That is arguably what is already going on in China - there are China bears and then there's the typical fanfare about "it's different now", "they know what they're doing", and ignoring all the red flags like faulty and questionable statistics, huge debt, huge spending on projects and companies that lose money, etc.

    Anyway, let's compile a list of the things you said that are flat out wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    They don't have to do anything to "keep renminbi within a band of exchange to foreign currencies."
    They do. This is not an opinion, this is a fact. China has foreign exchange reserves for a reason. Anyone can look this up online and see this is the case. They use these reserves to intervene in the CNH market and keep it within a band.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    No one else has ever controlled their own currency, for one thing.
    False. I already explained this and gave you examples. I even gave you an example of a country - Malaysia - that did what you keep thinking they're doing - setting the rate at a specific price, which China does not currently do. Here's another list:

    11.6 THE CURRENCIES OF EMERGING MARKETS
    The following are examples of some of the better-known currencies, which are non-deliverable
    today.

    China
    The People’s Bank of China controls the level of the reminbi. Offshore access,
    even to spot payments, is severely restricted.

    Korea
    Market forces largely determine the value of the Korean won. Despite
    recent liberalisation, offshore access to spot and forward markets is still
    limited.

    Philippines
    The Philippine peso is free floating but non-convertible on the capital account.
    NDFs have poor liquidity and can move out of line with onshore,
    particularly when there is pressure on the currency.

    Taiwan
    The Taiwan dollar operates on a managed float, and the Central Bank
    intervenes in order to limit excessive volatility.

    Indonesia
    The Indonesian rupiah operates on a managed float, and the Central Bank
    intervenes in order to limit excessive volatility.

    Argentina
    The Argentina peso is pegged 1 to 1 to the dollar according to the
    Convertibility Law established in 1991. This law states that the
    Central Bank must hold international reserves, dollar or gold equal to
    the total monetary base. The NDF market is most liquid out to six
    months.

    Brazil
    The Brazilian real floats freely against the dollar after the January 1999
    devaluation. However, it remains restricted to offshore
    counterparties.

    Chile
    The Chilean peso is free floating although restricted in the offshore market.

    Colombia
    The Colombian peso is free floating and the NDF market is among the
    smaller of the Latam region.

    Peru
    The New Peruvian sol floats freely but the NDF market is very thin with
    limited liquidity and participants.


    This is from Wiley that writes a lot of financial texts. If you expand this out to least-developed countries, it will be even worse. Again, capital controls are not some new phenomenon that China came up with. They're widely-used and have been around for a long time.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    None of your other examples actually controls their own country, for another.
    Uh, what does this even mean? You think every country out there operates like the US does? You need to get out more. Either that or simply read about this before you go posting nonsense.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    You just blew it. There is no such thing as "the offshore yuan." There is no such thing s "the yuan" either, but you'd have to live in China to understand that.

    Renminbi work only inside China. If some fool accepts China's currency elsewhere, China careth notteth. It's not China's problem and they don't give a shit, unlike other currencies that get traded worldwide.
    Obviously there is. China itself explicitly states this. It's also exemplified by the fact that the yuan is a larger part of foreign exchange reserves for central banks globally than it once was. Eventually you did seem to admit that other people do trade the yuan offshore, but somehow still say there is "no such thing as the offshore market". Those two don't go together, so I'm not sure what you're saying.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    You find me a foreign exchange market that takes rmb and gives out dollars and I will be a wealthy person.
    I did. The FX market, which is largely done OTC. This is why there is a difference in CNY and CNH as set out by China itself. Just because you can't easily access it does not mean no one else can.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    There's no way to exchange rmb for other currency without going through a Chinese bank.
    Obviously there is. You keep conflating getting money out with "there is no market outside China". Again, that is why there is an offshore market, it's why the CNH floats within a band and they have to intervene to try to keep it within that band.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    There's no need for murder if you can just walk over to the NASDAQ Currency Exchange Store and swap money.
    NASDAQ is not a currency exchange.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    China has foreign exchange reserves because they do a lot of business outside China - and they do not want to be at the mercy of banks who play such games as LIBOR.
    The Chinese government itself explicitly states that it uses those foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the offshore market for yuan to keep it within the band. Again, this is not debatable. It is not "because they do a lot of business outside China". That is not what foreign exchange reserves are for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    You want them then you look them up.
    looking up things inside your head is somewhat problematic

  16. Likes JoeE. liked this post
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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    looking up things inside your head is somewhat problematic
    If you want to post childish replies then carry on,just get your facts right first.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    If you want to post childish replies then carry on,just get your facts right first.
    you made up a number prove it

    no one here actually knows exactly what you are talking about, so go show yours stats

    It is not my job to prop up your argument

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    You're making knee-jerk reactions without reading what I've said. I said they have capital controls - they control the money going out, or try to. So you can stop repeating over and over again that they control this - you're arguing with no one here.




    Specifically tell me what claim I made that is false.



    I already proved there is. There is the HK market, there's the market in London and Singapore. Really any bank can buy/sell yuan. Once it's out of the country, it's beyond their control. Again, that is why it's called the offshore market. The rules surrounding it and how prices are set is more liberalized than inside.


    Sure, and everyone else could impose a tax on them for cutting off flow of capital and to adjust for an overvaluation.



    I worked in finance. I had nothing to do with that. Not everybody in finance is some nefarious person trading CDO's and trying to fool regulators or whatever. You sound like a loon.




    I doubt it. There are already tariffs of 10 and 20% or 25% or whatever. I see no pitchforks. The reality is China is not the only place in the world. Secondly, the EU and other countries could do the same.




    Right - there is no corruption in China. They just play for "the people".



    Nope. Because that was an interpretation of what was going on. Again, this is simply a binary yes or no, it is not an opinion.

    Do they have to trade in and out of the yuan offshore to keep its value within the range they want? The answer is yes.

    Does the yuan offshore trade under a different regime than onshore trading?
    yes.

    Do they have to keep foreign exchange reserves and worry about the yuan getting too strong or too weak?
    yes.

    Can they simply impose a specific price on it and say "this is what it's worth?
    yes. They do not do that now, but they can.

    Would they then be free of any repercussion from doing so?
    No. Other countries could tax any yuan transactions and any goods from China to adjust for their set rate. For example, if the rate is believed to be approximately 30% overvalued, they could all impose a 30% tax on them. China would be screwed in exports, it would be screwed in international markets, it would be screwed in imports. Economies need this to run.

    What's funny and ironic about this is that you cite past crises where everyone said all is going well and nothing to worry about, while a minority said the fundamentals didn't make sense. That is arguably what is already going on in China - there are China bears and then there's the typical fanfare about "it's different now", "they know what they're doing", and ignoring all the red flags like faulty and questionable statistics, huge debt, huge spending on projects and companies that lose money, etc.

    Anyway, let's compile a list of the things you said that are flat out wrong.



    They do. This is not an opinion, this is a fact. China has foreign exchange reserves for a reason. Anyone can look this up online and see this is the case. They use these reserves to intervene in the CNH market and keep it within a band.



    False. I already explained this and gave you examples. I even gave you an example of a country - Malaysia - that did what you keep thinking they're doing - setting the rate at a specific price, which China does not currently do. Here's another list:

    11.6 THE CURRENCIES OF EMERGING MARKETS
    The following are examples of some of the better-known currencies, which are non-deliverable
    today.

    China
    The People’s Bank of China controls the level of the reminbi. Offshore access,
    even to spot payments, is severely restricted.

    Korea
    Market forces largely determine the value of the Korean won. Despite
    recent liberalisation, offshore access to spot and forward markets is still
    limited.

    Philippines
    The Philippine peso is free floating but non-convertible on the capital account.
    NDFs have poor liquidity and can move out of line with onshore,
    particularly when there is pressure on the currency.

    Taiwan
    The Taiwan dollar operates on a managed float, and the Central Bank
    intervenes in order to limit excessive volatility.

    Indonesia
    The Indonesian rupiah operates on a managed float, and the Central Bank
    intervenes in order to limit excessive volatility.

    Argentina
    The Argentina peso is pegged 1 to 1 to the dollar according to the
    Convertibility Law established in 1991. This law states that the
    Central Bank must hold international reserves, dollar or gold equal to
    the total monetary base. The NDF market is most liquid out to six
    months.

    Brazil
    The Brazilian real floats freely against the dollar after the January 1999
    devaluation. However, it remains restricted to offshore
    counterparties.

    Chile
    The Chilean peso is free floating although restricted in the offshore market.

    Colombia
    The Colombian peso is free floating and the NDF market is among the
    smaller of the Latam region.

    Peru
    The New Peruvian sol floats freely but the NDF market is very thin with
    limited liquidity and participants.


    This is from Wiley that writes a lot of financial texts. If you expand this out to least-developed countries, it will be even worse. Again, capital controls are not some new phenomenon that China came up with. They're widely-used and have been around for a long time.



    Uh, what does this even mean? You think every country out there operates like the US does? You need to get out more. Either that or simply read about this before you go posting nonsense.



    Obviously there is. China itself explicitly states this. It's also exemplified by the fact that the yuan is a larger part of foreign exchange reserves for central banks globally than it once was. Eventually you did seem to admit that other people do trade the yuan offshore, but somehow still say there is "no such thing as the offshore market". Those two don't go together, so I'm not sure what you're saying.



    I did. The FX market, which is largely done OTC. This is why there is a difference in CNY and CNH as set out by China itself. Just because you can't easily access it does not mean no one else can.



    Obviously there is. You keep conflating getting money out with "there is no market outside China". Again, that is why there is an offshore market, it's why the CNH floats within a band and they have to intervene to try to keep it within that band.



    NASDAQ is not a currency exchange.



    The Chinese government itself explicitly states that it uses those foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the offshore market for yuan to keep it within the band. Again, this is not debatable. It is not "because they do a lot of business outside China". That is not what foreign exchange reserves are for.
    Doo Wah Do Wah come on Kitty!

    One fellow with good points and and retort. Emanuel needs the challenge. This is once where the personality of hard nose New Yorkers is refreshing.

    Ode to NY

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=le1QF3uoQNg

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    you made up a number prove it

    no one here actually knows exactly what you are talking about, so go show yours stats

    It is not my job to prop up your argument
    I am not asking you to do anything, you do as you please.
    You say that no-one here knows exactly what I am talking about. When did you ask them all? I certainly didn't see any post posing that question.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    Thank you squire.
    Gus will be right back along in a minute and climb down off his high horse and apologise for the attitude he gave you...

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Gus will be right back along in a minute and climb down off his high horse and apologise for the attitude he gave you...
    I would salute him as a man if he does.


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