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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    I would salute him as a man if he does.
    I *think* he has a certain strain of Scottish blood in him so don't hold your breath...

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    Let´s see what happens.
    So far we have the worst of all worlds, with a tiny softening lately from both sides of no real import.

    Chinese exports and growth is going down.
    So is US economic activity.

    But the chinese are moving to EU and asian and latam markets.
    It is slow, and will take 1-2 years to have major effects.
    But once they grow those markets, they will never lose them.

    Was this a good choice for the US.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    Let´s see what happens.
    So far we have the worst of all worlds, with a tiny softening lately from both sides of no real import.

    Chinese exports and growth is going down.
    So is US economic activity.

    But the chinese are moving to EU and asian and latam markets.
    It is slow, and will take 1-2 years to have major effects.
    But once they grow those markets, they will never lose them.

    Was this a good choice for the US.
    My take, Hanermo, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, is that tariffs to level the playing field would be a good idea. But that leveling should include the reduced costs (grabbed by any supplier) of things like child labor, stolen IP, air and water pollution, unsafe products with no recall or remediation process, and excessive greenhouse gas emissions throughout the supply chain. That way suppliers would either have to up their game (for example, less pollution from coal-fired plants in China or India) or see countervailing tariffs.

    This of course, wouldn't happen with our current administration, which not only doesn't admit to any problems with pollution or climate change, but is actively working to dismantle whatever progress has been made in the past decade or so. So, we're not about to adopt more efficient production systems or more efficient products here, even if it might improve our global competitiveness and greatly reduce the "debt" we're leaving to our kids.

    Seems we're now bent on re-creating the short-sighted environmental collapse of an Easter Island -- now on a more global basis?

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    It should be noted that If you do not have the correct patent covering your product, you do not, necessarily, have any protection in another country.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    My take, Hanermo, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, is that tariffs to level the playing field would be a good idea.
    In the case of China, tariffs are a bad idea. They have a history of being pushed around by other countries (Opium Wars, etc) so other alternatives that are not in-yer-face-demands work better.

    That's if you actually care about improving trade instead of making yourself look like a bigshot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    It should be noted that If you do not have the correct patent covering your product, you do not, necessarily, have any protection in another country.
    True enough, Mark. But if you have, say, a US patent and someone from China (where, say, you don't have a patent) copies your product -- the Chinese copycat isn't free to sell in the US. Most patent seekers will file only where they see major markets.

    The whole patent thing has become a bit of a morass. These days it's as much a sort of legal strong arm tactic used between massive companies, with patent trolls on the side, as it is a protection for the hard work of inventors. That's another story.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    In the case of China, tariffs are a bad idea. They have a history of being pushed around by other countries (Opium Wars, etc) so other alternatives that are not in-yer-face-demands work better.

    That's if you actually care about improving trade instead of making yourself look like a bigshot.
    Two points. First -- by having an orderly process rather than a tweet-a-holic approach to assuring a level playing field, it's less in-your-face. Every maker, in every country, would have a choice. Improve your standards and have open access. Or cut corners and face tariffs on the way in.

    Second. Either way, fairly administered leveling-tariffs are a win for customers and citizens in every country. Either our quality of life directly goes up (assuming people improve their products and processes) or the better makers get to compete on a level playing field (also improving things for customers and citizens).

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    Re the current trade war then this surprised me but not nearly as much as it should have.

    Car manufacturing in China.

    YouTube

    YouTube

    YouTube

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    My take, Hanermo, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, is that tariffs to level the playing field would be a good idea. But that leveling should include the reduced costs (grabbed by any supplier) of things like child labor, stolen IP, air and water pollution, unsafe products with no recall or remediation process, and excessive greenhouse gas emissions throughout the supply chain. That way suppliers would either have to up their game (for example, less pollution from coal-fired plants in China or India) or see countervailing tariffs.

    This of course, wouldn't happen with our current administration, which not only doesn't admit to any problems with pollution or climate change, but is actively working to dismantle whatever progress has been made in the past decade or so. So, we're not about to adopt more efficient production systems or more efficient products here, even if it might improve our global competitiveness and greatly reduce the "debt" we're leaving to our kids.

    Seems we're now bent on re-creating the short-sighted environmental collapse of an Easter Island -- now on a more global basis?
    The trade issue is based on certain things which are problems. These are issues which can no longer be ignored by the US. These same basic issues being addressed could benefit the EU also and so I often wonder why the EU or at least the individual countries are not supportive of these kinds of redress to trade. Seems like it is much better to be on the same track here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    In the case of China, tariffs are a bad idea. They have a history of being pushed around by other countries (Opium Wars, etc) so other alternatives that are not in-yer-face-demands work better.

    That's if you actually care about improving trade instead of making yourself look like a bigshot.
    It is a bad idea to allow China to trade in this manner. Also it is wrong that American companies should currently expect anything else except the problems there are. I understand there are people who do not wish any changes since their interests are to make profits and earn money from the way things are.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    The trade issue is based on certain things which are problems. These are issues which can no longer be ignored by the US. These same basic issues being addressed could benefit the EU also and so I often wonder why the EU or at least the individual countries are not supportive of these kinds of redress to trade. Seems like it is much better to be on the same track here.
    There are issues that shouldn't be ignored but I doubt very much if a tarif war is the way to deal with it. Some will disagree with the comparison but it's a bit like the Vietnamese war. The longer it continued the less support it had in the USA.

    China is probably better equipped to handle a trade war, and especially a lengthy one, than the USA. In the USA unpopular political issues costs votes more than in China.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    There are issues that shouldn't be ignored but I doubt very much if a tarif war is the way to deal with it. Some will disagree with the comparison but it's a bit like the Vietnamese war. The longer it continued the less support it had in the USA.

    China is probably better equipped to handle a trade war, and especially a lengthy one, than the USA. In the USA unpopular political issues costs votes more than in China.
    But the trick is to make the "some logical and justified" war a bit painful at home.
    Then you can "solve" the war just in time for elections and look like a hero pulling that few percent you need.
    I think that playbook has be written and proven to work.
    Elections here are not about the majority as so many are set no matter what. It's about that 3-10% in the middle and swinging them.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    The trade issue is based on certain things which are problems. These are issues which can no longer be ignored by the US. These same basic issues being addressed could benefit the EU also and so I often wonder why the EU or at least the individual countries are not supportive of these kinds of redress to trade. Seems like it is much better to be on the same track here.
    I'd agree that a united front would be useful. My guess is that Euro countries aren't entirely eager to side with the US on trade issues for fear of being dragged into a mess, held hostage to tweeted new positions, then stabbed in the back.

    So far we've blown up most every trade agreement previously agreed and changed our minds many mornings about who's affected, how much, and when (e.g Huawei or delaying tariffs to after Christmas because they will/won't/will cause higher prices). We've also messed up supply chains, added volatility to their energy prices, and disparaged various allies and trade partners along the way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    I'd agree that a united front would be useful. My guess is that Euro countries aren't entirely eager to side with the US on trade issues for fear of being dragged into a mess, held hostage to tweeted new positions, then stabbed in the back.

    So far we've blown up most every trade agreement previously agreed and changed our minds many mornings about who's affected, how much, and when (e.g Huawei or delaying tariffs to after Christmas because they will/won't/will cause higher prices). We've also messed up supply chains, added volatility to their energy prices, and disparaged various allies and trade partners along the way.
    They are too cautious in my view. They short themselves avoiding conflict. Until avoiding conflict finds a huge war or conflict. That escapes their guard.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    I'd agree that a united front would be useful. My guess is that Euro countries aren't entirely eager to side with the US on trade issues for fear of being dragged into a mess, held hostage to tweeted new positions, then stabbed in the back.

    So far we've blown up most every trade agreement previously agreed and changed our minds many mornings about who's affected, how much, and when (e.g Huawei or delaying tariffs to after Christmas because they will/won't/will cause higher prices). We've also messed up supply chains, added volatility to their energy prices, and disparaged various allies and trade partners along the way.

    Which trade agreements have we “blown up” in your view?

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    Mr. Pete I heard reporting that Democrats are not supportive of the China tariffs being removed. This is a area of agreement it seems. Whether or not persons have been paid money in the past to join with China while not having good compensation from US companies it seems that it is generally agreed by both parties that something must be done as the current state is not sustainable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    Which trade agreements have we “blown up” in your view?
    Quick review. Used to be that conservative administrations were in favor of free trade (helps producers sell stuff) and were negotiated in a win-win spirit. You do what we do best, we do what we do best, and we trade.

    Both liberals and conservatives tended to negotiate trade agreements somewhat in private, honored them, and kept trade as sort of a separate issue from politics and posturing. In comes Trump with a fuck-everyone-that's-not-me attitude, an initially isolationist view, and a very erratic style with Trump tweeting stuff and what few competent trade negotiators around left scrambling.

    So, we put tariffs on allies aluminum and steel, blow up NAFTA, rescind TPP, threaten tariffs for anyone Trump doesn't like for other reasons (e.g. Trump not liking Mexico because it didn't want to pay for the wall). We urge the UK to Brexit, and pretty much want to drop TTIP and CAFTA in favor of one on one agreements. As a side effect both our own companies' and our allies industries see supply chain disruption.

    At the same time we drop out of the Paris climate accord, tear up the Iran nuclear deal (with it's own set of trade sanctions), and start a trade war with China. The only predictable element in all of this is that if it's something that happened in the eight years prior (from Michelle's vegetable garden to most any agreement or auto efficiency regulation), we tear it up. Trump apparently still wants payback for his humiliation at an Obama press club dinner years ago, regardless of what it means for the country and our future.

    We also use our dollar-denominated financial system to exert political pressure, causing more and more nations to look for alternative payment systems (this will eventually be a huge loss for the US). Meanwhile we embrace despots rather than allies (Putin in Russia, Kim over the Japanese, etc.).

    So, yeah, there's been some "blowing up" of past agreements and alliances.

    As noted above, I realize and believe that renegotiating agreements to have a level playing field - particularly as outlined above in the case of China - makes good sense. But we ought to be doing it with greater predictability, less "me great, you chump" theatrics, and more of a sense that our word and contracts can be trusted, especially with allies. There are real issues to be dealt with.

    Note also that this narcissistic style - and the loss of trust and goodwill that comes from it - haven't bought us much. The new NAFTA is pretty much the same as the old. Repatriated cash isn't building new steel plants here. Instead it's mostly gone to stock buybacks - pushing up the Dow, but with no real added productive capacity behind it. Manufacturing recently actually saw it's first retreat in about ten years.

    Over the past three years, excepting the latest blip, we've actually seen imports and our balance of trade get worse despite all the talk and posturing. Far as I can tell this is because we're running trillion dollar deficits, even in a good economy. That borrowed money has to go somewhere -- and given that we make less stuff, our agriculture is stymied and on subsidies, and finance doesn't actually make anything - we spend it at places like Walmart and BMW showrooms.

    Iran is closer than ever to nukes. Pakistan is exporting the technology and we're pretty much ignoring it. Kim is lobbing new weapons into allies' backyards (and now may be able to hit anywhere in the US). Russia is emboldened in everything from invading former Soviet block countries to messing with our elections. Afghanistan is as great a mess as ever. And the lack of news coverage in Iraq doesn't mean we've restored peace and democracy and Iraqi oil is paying the trillions we spent.

    The Middle East is a mess. Our buddies the Saudis are tyrants, happy to cut up journalists in their Turkish embassy or bomb kids in Yemen. Peace for Israel is farther away than ever. The UK looks ready to jump off a cliff.

    Drug sales are still going strong in the US. We've done squat on health care. Trump now wants zero or negative interest rates to boost a slowing economy. After withdrawing from TPP, Pac Rim nations are realigning themselves to be better friends with China. The "Art of the Deal" (a book Trump paid to have written, then claimed as the second best book ever after the Bible) doesn't seem to be working anywhere. And firing people as the number one management technique, it turns out, only works in reality TV. We've filled the "swamp" with more swamp creatures than ever, with more churn than any administration in memory. Whether it's a Xi or a Macron, turns out that they won't be fired or intimidated. That leaves us pretty much kissing up to the likes of Putin and Kim.

    Our isolationism is cutting us off from some rare materials. US company supply chains are scrambled. We still haven't addressed the financialization of our country that has stripped us of jobs and plants. The too-big-to-fail are bigger than ever, and still running government finance positions.

    We're not prepared for a next recession. And the world continues to set new records for heat, drought, hurricanes, sea rise, flooding, and whole nations fleeing collapsed agriculture.

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    ^ Sometimes you've got your finger on the pulse of the nation, PeteM

    I would just like to point out that if Congress had not abdicated their responsibilities over the past several administrations, none of this would be possible. Reagan, Clinton, Bush II and Obama created most of the "enabling" legislation that put us in this mess, and all of it is totally illegal. Just like a person can not sign away his rights, Congress can not legally abdicate their responsibilities.

    Much of what Obama did was not legal or binding, which is why the Donald could so easily overturn it. Our founders despised the thought of an imperial presidency, and I giveth a crappeth notteth if he was black, brown, or a pasty-faced honky. It's anti-American (to borrow a phrase).

    btw, saying that tariffs are not a good tool does not mean I think the situation was correct. There were lots of things that needed to be fixed. But swatting flies with a sledge hammer is not a good way to accomplish your goals.

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    Halloween coming up and these look like being popular costumes.

    donald-trump-piggyback-maskeraddrakt-4.jpg nordkoreansk-diktator-ridande-maskeraddrakt-1.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Halloween coming up and these look like being popular costumes.

    donald-trump-piggyback-maskeraddrakt-4.jpg nordkoreansk-diktator-ridande-maskeraddrakt-1.jpg
    Wow.
    That was helpful.......


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