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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Well, we got your pasteurized American cheese product* right here...

    https://www.amazon.com/Great-Value-P...a-811910865309

    *does not contain cheese
    [shiver]....




    ////

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    It is not fair to list this as 'trump' retaliation, this is a WTO process that has been going on for a decade.

    This is the way it is supposed to work
    Totally and completely disagree. The WTO's dispute settlement is a joke. You said it yourself, going on for a decade. And you think it should work that way? Just like when China held up Australian wine at port, banned Norwegian salmon, or Canadian canola, almost indisputable that any of them had any concrete and legitimate trade-related reasoning. They were political. And what was done about those instances? Pretty much nothing.

    The WTO is a very slow-acting, bureaucratic, and toothless body for trade. All it can do is, after what is usually a long time IF a case is ever even brought up and gone through the whole process, is for them to "authorize" another member to retaliate with countervailing duties. Members can and do ignore the rulings, as the EU did with the US-EU beef one for one example.

    The problems with the WTO predate Trump, it just rarely got media attention. It's basically become a club run by the developing members where the rules don't always apply to them but do apply to the US. My number one irk is hearing this crap about "promoting free trade" - if there really were "free trade", there would be no need for all the rounds of negotiations because there would be nothing to negotiate. Imo, the WTO is a faceless body where the press releases using vague and meaningless uplifting speeches are the only thing that matters, and the actual material and policy that is enacted and enforced by the body is hidden from the public for the benefit of all the special interest groups.

    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    not some nincompoop declaring an emergency and tariffing countries he dosn't like
    What he did there is explicitly defined in the law. That's part of the reason a whole lot of nothing has happened against it, on top of the super slow process for dispute settlement. National security is a legitimate claim here. It is explicitly defined in US law. Other members have the same sorts of laws allowing them to do this for national security. It wasn't even the only section 232 investigation done. Here's one from 2001 before Bush put in those steel tariffs.....for national security.

    https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/do...teel-2001/file

    Whether it was merited or whether the tariffs had any positive or negative effect is irrelevant - the relevant thing here is whether or not what Trump did with section 232 was plausible from a legal standpoint. The answer is yes. And it's hard to dispute it. Many are afraid of what he did not because it was technically wrong, but because it sets a precedent that was adhered to out of convention. You *could* do that sort of thing, but it would be in bad taste. Especially for a member like the US.

    Way easier to just say "omg can you believe he declared a national emergency" and give you the idea that doing so means there are people running in panic on the streets or something, when in reality with all the countless times it's been used, it has never been used in such a way. Much harder and less politically damning to Trump to actually give you the full context.

    Let's be clear: it more than likely wasn't him that really figured this all out. He isn't that interested in this or bright. He has an idea that the US is being treated unfairly in this area, so he got Lighthizer, Ross, and others to do the real work. Those guys actually are smart. Lighthizer especially was very involved with the steel industry during his time at Skadden after working for Reagan during the US-Japan trade war they never tell you about. It was most likely him and the people at the USTR that figured this out because they knew it would give a reason for other countries to renegotiate current agreements. When your tariffs are already low, it gives no incentive for countries to renegotiate anything, especially if the balance of trade is in their favor. When suddenly tariffs got higher, now they do have an incentive. Compared to past lengths of time, what they did with KORUS and NAFTA, no matter how small overall it may be in terms of the entire agreement, is pretty remarkable. Usually this takes a decade. They did it in months or a little over a year. I'm behind Lighthizer and Ross, and anyone that thinks Trump's wrong on this I recommend at least giving their testimonies a listen.
    Last edited by nyc123; 10-03-2019 at 03:19 PM.

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    I have my own issues with the WTO, but trumps tariffs are ignorant and counterproductive, he has started a trade war that is damaging our own economy far more than anyone elses, and it is all going as you would expect with a toddler in charge.

    he has no intelligent help, they all leave when he ignores their well thought out reasoning and makes up his own childish policies

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    For better or for worse, Mr dtrump has started the tariffs game, and it is now beginning to be seen in the US economy.

    The logistics "long-trail" and industrial production realities mean any change is slow to happen vs. retail sales numbers or industrial output and slow to reverse or change, at a real macro economic level.

    It takes 6-9-12 months for policy changes to show at the industrial input/output numbers.
    The loss for the US is that chinese exports to the us, reduced, now go to other countries and cause an extra cost to the us consumer for the rest.

    And once the e.g. china/eu/latam trade increases, that small part of the trade flow will never return back to the US.

    And where extra tariffs cause US goods to be more expensive, the buyers find other suppliers and are very unlikely to return back to the US suppliers later on.

    Overall total tariffs at a national scale are a loss for US manufacturers, importers, exporters, distributors, and consumers.

    And since there are global consumers and producers for everything, and a lot of important items in terms of value, scarcity, capacity only come from china in qty, vs. US trade, the one country the US cannot afford a trade war with is china.

    E.g.
    Almost-all processing and refining of rare-earths is done in china.
    Not supply, refining.
    Without refining, the base materials themselves mean little.

    There are exactly zero at-scale options for refining rare earths ex-china.

    The same could be said, more/less, for some industrial metals.
    Nickel, Cobalt, Cadmium, graphite perhaps.
    Polysilicon.

    Obviously, the US could technically build plants to refine rare-earths, cadmium, etc.
    But the environmental costs, and bos costs, would mean the output metals cost a lot more than current global prices.
    Of course the US could build poly plants and refineries for cobalt/nickel/cadmium.

    For 60B$, not much, the US could theoretically have a serious production base in 6 years for 6 critical materials at 10B$/each.
    But the US legal/contamination issues make this more/less impossible and about 3-6-10x more expensive in capex and impossible to guess in terms of time.

    In a rational world, the US c/would use national-security funds of 60B$, a pittance, over 6 years, to build railways to any of multiple deserts and set up a large "national-minerals-plant-set" of extreme efficiency, best-in-world in "clean", new-tech.

    Quite apart from maybe 100k new jobs at high salary it would also save the US a huge amount ongoing in processing costs.
    And establish a huge new industry of increasing global importance.

    But that is all too rational for US decision-makers to contemplate, and 6 years is too far for an election cycle.

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    we are starting to see results from the tariffs.
    this mill is less than five miles down the road from me.
    County lumber mill to close because of trade disputes | Local News | goskagit.com

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    we are starting to see results from the tariffs.
    this mill is less than five miles down the road from me.
    County lumber mill to close because of trade disputes | Local News | goskagit.com
    The company can blame it on tariffs- definitely easier to blame everything on Trump- but it sounds like their problems go beyond exports to China...

    https://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...0522_PR_401247

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    For better or for worse, Mr dtrump has started the tariffs game, and it is now beginning to be seen in the US economy.
    So is no one going to talk about any of the tariffs we already had before he became president? The thousands of them? Or the thousands of tariffs other countries have? I don't see where he "started" it. The only thing he started was pissing the others off by going unilaterally and being vocal about it to voters

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    The logistics "long-trail" and industrial production realities mean any change is slow to happen vs. retail sales numbers or industrial output and slow to reverse or change, at a real macro economic level.
    Translation: There's been naysayers for like two or three years now and nothing has happened, so I will blame it on some sort of mystery lag.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    It takes 6-9-12 months for policy changes to show at the industrial input/output numbers.
    We've had tariffs longer than that.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    The loss for the US is that chinese exports to the us, reduced, now go to other countries and cause an extra cost to the us consumer for the rest.
    Except that our trade balance has not really changed. Both our exports and imports to/from China are basically the same in absolute terms. Let it be clear: there has not been some gigantic void of the Chinese market created by this for American exporters, nor vice versa.
    Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with China
    As far as an extra cost to the consumer, please show me in inflation where this extra cost is. I don't see it. Please specifically point it out for those on China.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    Overall total tariffs at a national scale are a loss for US manufacturers, importers, exporters, distributors, and consumers.
    Okay, so why doesn't everybody drop all their tariffs, quotas, subsidies, and non-tariff barriers. Explain.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    the one country the US cannot afford a trade war with is china.
    Certainly afforded it so far

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    E.g.
    Almost-all processing and refining of rare-earths is done in china.
    Not supply, refining.
    Without refining, the base materials themselves mean little.

    There are exactly zero at-scale options for refining rare earths ex-china.
    Rare earth elements aren’t the secret weapon China thinks they are - The Verge

    we have a very good idea of what would happen next because it’s already happened before. Back in 2010, China stopped exports of rare earths to Japan following a diplomatic incident involving a fishing trawler and the disputed Senkaku Islands. Gholz wrote a report of the fallout from this incident in 2014, and found that despite China’s intentions, its ban actually had little effect.

    Chinese smugglers continued to export rare earths off the books; manufacturers in Japan found ways to use less of the materials; and production in other parts of the world ramped up to compensate. “The world is flexible,” says Gholz. “When you try to restrict supplies to politically influence another country, people don’t give up, they adapt.”

    He says that although his report examined the rare earth industry as it was in 2010, the “conclusions are pretty much the same” in 2019.


    If China did turn off the rare earth tap, there would be enough private and public stockpiles to supply essential sectors like the military in the short term. And while an embargo could lead to price rises for high-tech goods and dependent materials like oil (rare earths are essential in many refining processes), Gholz says it’s highly unlikely that you would be unable to buy your next smartphone because of a few missing micrograms of yttrium. “I don’t think that’s ever going to happen. It just doesn’t seem plausible,” he says.


    Reminds me of the bit about China selling off Treasury holdings as a "weapon". That idea is on very shaky ground at best.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    The company can blame it on tariffs- definitely easier to blame everything on Trump- but it sounds like their problems go beyond exports to China...

    https://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...0522_PR_401247

    hmm- your link says- "Lower selling prices for lumber, alder, and red oak, and reduced shipments of lumber to China, Northwest's primary overseas market, and hardwood panel for the recreation vehicle end-market are all contributing to inadequate performance."

    And this source says RV sales are a pretty good tracker for the economy in general, and its down. Hence, "reduced shipments" of lumber for the recreation vehicle end market.

    The RV industry is slowing down after 10 years of growth - Curbed

    Which may or may not be directly traceable to tariffs, but certainly is yet another sign that the tariffs arent helping the economy in general, which has been slipping in many quantifiable ways all year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    hmm- your link says- "Lower selling prices for lumber, alder, and red oak, and reduced shipments of lumber to China, Northwest's primary overseas market, and hardwood panel for the recreation vehicle end-market are all contributing to inadequate performance."
    I think everyone knows the economy has slowed down. Everywhere.

    Northwest Hardwoods is a big operation. If they are healthy, they should be able to deal with the ups and downs.

    Here is what Moody's said in 2017- before any tariffs:
    The downgrade of Northwest Hardwoods' CFR to Caa1 from B3 and change in rating outlook to negative from stable results from weak profit margins, low interest coverage and high financial leverage. Underperformance is due to product mix shift towards lower margin lumber and away from alder and red oak species, partially due to the constraint of alder supply near NWH's western mills. Alder and red oak trees are primary sources for hardwood lumber, Northwest's main product. The company has not benefited as expected from solid fundamentals in the domestic new residential construction, and repair and remodeling end markets, from which NWH derives about 60% of revenues. Despite expectations for some improvement in lumber prices, partially due to countervailing duties on Canadian lumber imports, and access to more alder species in the northwest, key debt-credit metrics will remain anemic.

    We project adjusted EBITA margins to remain in low-single digits, making it difficult for NWH to generate substantial earnings. As a result of low margins, leverage will likely stay above 9.0x and interest coverage, measured as EBITA-to-interest expense, will remain below 0.75x over the next 12-18 months (ratios incorporate Moody's standard adjustments). These key credit metrics are characteristic of lower-rated entities. In addition, the revolver comes due in mid-2019, potentially stressing the company's liquidity. However, Moody's recognizes that management is addressing its operating performance by improving working capital, enhancing supplier relationships, and modernizing its mills. These actions should contribute to better results over the long-term.

    Further negative rating actions could result if the company's profit improvement efforts do not bear fruit or if the company fails to address its looming 2019 debt maturity.
    So what I said before- their problems run deeper than just tariffs. Blaming the mill closure on the tariffs is convenient for management, but it's not the whole story.

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    It looks like a good investment for someone who would find other markets in the longer term. American wood is obviously very good.

    I would raise my prices if my buyers did not stand by me in this kind of trade negotiation when trade resumes.

    Not many believe nor want trade to stop yet it could because it is not right. Negotiations are pretty secret yet we know general issues.

    I don’t think just because that is how China does business then they get to do whatever they want. That is a cop out.


    Given the dispute with China I have no doubt that they would be inclined to buy other places than US. Problem is when a company like this makes a better profit selling elsewhere which would be China’s issue.

    It is better for them to trade with their best partners and work things out like is done every day in business.

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    As per the USTR and Ross, the details of the trade deal with China were ironed out back in May. That part is done.

    The part that remains is the enforcement mechanisms. Trump wants to be able to hold China to the deal they agree to.

    I don't know the details, but the agreement is reported to be 150 pages. That sounds pretty good to me compared to our other agreements which are thousands of pages long.

    There was a good chance that this would have been finished up by the end of the year, until the democrats trotted out their impeachment nonsense. Now Xi will probably wait until after the 2020 election, with the hope that he gets someone easier to deal with.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    ... it sounds like their problems go beyond exports to China...

    https://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...0522_PR_401247
    Moody's testified uder oath that their evaluations are worthless.

    Here is what Moody's said in 2017
    Who gives a fuck ? They have testified that they don't do any research and their word is nothing but hot air and speculation. They are self-proclaimed shysters, sworn testimony. Not a good source.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Moody's testified uder oath that their evaluations are worthless.


    Who gives a fuck ? They have testified that they don't do any research and their word is nothing but hot air and speculation. They are self-proclaimed shysters, sworn testimony. Not a good source.
    Everyone does. The Chinese do not have the green light to be underhanded in trade.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    .....
    Given the dispute with China I have no doubt that they would be inclined to buy other places than US....
    China was buying up shuttered USA manufacturing companies and reopening them.
    This trend and cash flow has shut down with the dispute.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    Everyone does.
    Everyone does what, listen to Moody's ? Then everyone is idiots.

    Moody's swore under oath that their valuations were worthless, that they did no research, that they could not be held responsible for their ratings, that everything they said was based on hot air and falsehoods.

    Therefore, they are shit. Worthless shit, pure and simple.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Everyone does what, listen to Moody's ? Then everyone is idiots.

    Moody's swore under oath that their valuations were worthless, that they did no research, that they could not be held responsible for their ratings, that everything they said was based on hot air and falsehoods.

    Therefore, they are shit. Worthless shit, pure and simple.
    They use Moody’s. Maybe not you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    They use Moody’s. Maybe not you.
    Anyone who listens to one word out of Moody's mouth after they swore under oath to Congress that they did no research, knew nothing, handed out ratings like toys in a box of Crackerjack, and could not be responsible in any way for the giant fraud that brought the world to its knees, is an imbecile.

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    Ok dang.

    Have you been watching Hong Kong on the news? Looks like the military might be coming in. amazing too is the military parade. I have a friend who lived in HK for some years. I have lost track of him. He had a nice ivory chess set that he got in HK. He always was getting things through HK.

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    EG I do feel there will be some agreement made on trade with China. Do you?


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