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    "consumers are obviously not paying it 100%."

    Was/is that particularly an important distinction.
    Money is entering the government coffers from the tariffs- is that placement a benefit or cost to economic condition.
    If cost is it acceptable if those conditions benefit in the longer term.

    Lots of research is out on just how much of a cost is born by the consumer- I'd say the burden is on you as the one making the point to understand just what that level is if you want to assess the influences of this otherwise your position is uniformed.


    The Return to Protectionism et al, et al....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    "consumers are obviously not paying it 100%."

    Was/is that particularly an important distinction.
    Money is entering the government coffers from the tariffs- is that placement a benefit or cost to economic condition.
    If cost is it acceptable if those conditions benefit in the longer term.

    Lots of research is out on just how much of a cost is born by the consumer- I'd say the burden is on you as the one making the point to understand just what that level is if you want to assess the influences of this otherwise your position is uniformed.


    The Return to Protectionism et al, et al....
    I think if it is wise for trade in the country overall for the public good then it is wise and even critical. It is a plus.

    What is ignored largely is that tariffs have always had a place even though they have not been used like this for some time.

    To say they are not effective is just thinking our forefathers were idiots. Easily if they were here and alive they would set us straight. Count on that concept as they would given today’s situation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Lots of research is out on just how much of a cost is born by the consumer- I'd say the burden is on you as the one making the point to understand just what that level is if you want to assess the influences of this otherwise your position is uniformed.
    The Return to Protectionism et al, et al....
    Why would the burden be on me? I'm not the one making an extreme proposition here. Others are saying it is only paid by the consumer. Obviously that is not the case. I am saying that it is a mixture, and pretty clearly most of that is not the consumer. If it were, you would see this in inflation data. Yet there is no 10-25% inflation in this data for US goods. So it is going somewhere else. So the ball is in the court of all those who say it is only paid by consumers, because there is no evidence that I see to suggest this is the case. I'm not the first person to bring that up, either.

    As far as "return to protectionism", yeah all these models try to suggest what the economic losses are. They are estimates, calculations made by reducing demand and everything else down into equations. They aren't particularly accurate in their track record, either. The ITC uses models to come up with projections of what each new trade agreement will do to the US economy. There have been several where we were supposed to run a surplus where instead we ended up running a deficit. I believe NAFTA was one of those, yet you see what happened with that. The traditional way they do this is using something called CGE modeling. That is what the government uses. They also minimize it all down to equations and then change the prices of inputs by the amount of tariffs on those inputs and run that on previous years. It's a simulation, not a projection, and imo, a poor one at that because you are trying to reduce an entire economy down into a handful of equations. It's a lot more complicated than modeling a financial instrument, for example. Either way, this paper shows that the losses are very small. "Aggregate real income loss of 7.2 billion" - across the US economy, this is absolutely nothing. They say it themselves with the detail "0.04% of GDP" On top of that, the paper makes itself known as being biased right off the bat with...

    "After decades of supporting free trade, "

    This is a vague and nonsensical line. There is no such thing as free trade and no one practices it because it does not exist. Everybody is a protectionist. We use tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and other measures. Nobody allows goods to flow seamlessly. Nor do we allow labor to flow seamlessly, or capital. "Free trade" has just become this political word that's thrown around as if it means something.

    Does this paper state how much of the tariff burden is paid by consumers when a tariffed good is imported specifically? I don't see it (I'm just glossing over here). Afterall, that's not what it seems like this paper is doing - it's a typical whole-economy effects paper looking at effects in aggregate. I do have a paper which specifically does look at tariffs and who paid them. Their conclusion was that about 75% of it was paid by China and about 25% by the US. I can dig it up if you're interested.

    Anyway, ball is in the court of anyone saying it is consumers paying. I've given a lot of supporting evidence for what I said in that they largely are not. I haven't seen anyone else give anything in support of the opposite other than simply saying it.

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    Well-posted, eloquent, but wrong.

    1. Factories don´t drop their prices.
    2. True.

    3. No. Wrong.
    The importer always pays the tariff.
    The importer may eat the cost increase. This reduces his profits aka dvidends, earnings, stock market values.

    4. Disagree.
    There is no burden of proof on anyone.
    More tariffs are more costs, and they are paid for by the US importer/seller and/or the consumer in a minimax.

    5.
    There has been no major inflation.
    True.
    But inflation has nothing to do with import duties and the macro economy profitability.

    Example.
    The US pays 25B$, now, to US farmers because they cannot ship soybeans to china.
    850.000 tons, iirc.
    This is lost production, lost economic activity.

    One cannot game economics.
    Import duties, tariffs, licenses, cannot be profitable.
    Reduction Ad A. the US could in Your narrative tariff everything 1000% or whatever, import less, and be rich and happy forever.

    I think You agree the US cannot tariff iphones and car parts enough to pay for all fired US workers in phone sector and auto parts sectors.
    After that, it is a Q. of numbers and priorities.


    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    1. Is that the case when factories (that's the sellers) drop their prices? No.
    2. Is that the case when the currency weakens? No.

    3.
    That would be the seller paying it. Technically, in this case, it's been a mixture of both buyer and seller, but just shooting out the idea that "buyers always pay the tariff" is too simplistic and not technically correct.

    ...
    4.
    burden of proof lies on anyone here to prove that US consumers are paying for this.

    There's inflation data, consumer price indices even down to many different product categories, all from the US government.
    5.
    If it's not there, then consumers are obviously not paying it 100%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    Well-posted, eloquent, but wrong.

    1. Factories don´t drop their prices.
    2. True.

    3. No. Wrong.
    The importer always pays the tariff.
    The importer may eat the cost increase. This reduces his profits aka dvidends, earnings, stock market values.

    4. Disagree.
    There is no burden of proof on anyone.
    More tariffs are more costs, and they are paid for by the US importer/seller and/or the consumer in a minimax.

    5.
    There has been no major inflation.
    True.
    But inflation has nothing to do with import duties and the macro economy profitability.

    Example.
    The US pays 25B$, now, to US farmers because they cannot ship soybeans to china.
    850.000 tons, iirc.
    This is lost production, lost economic activity.

    One cannot game economics.
    Import duties, tariffs, licenses, cannot be profitable.
    Reduction Ad A. the US could in Your narrative tariff everything 1000% or whatever, import less, and be rich and happy forever.

    I think You agree the US cannot tariff iphones and car parts enough to pay for all fired US workers in phone sector and auto parts sectors.
    After that, it is a Q. of numbers and priorities.
    Hanermo, you always reply and never address the person directly. We do not know with certainty who you may be addressing.

    Why not avoid being shy and address directly who you respond to? Unless you may not want direct feedback I do not understand why you would be shy.

    Since you always have numbers you churn out which are usually challenged by many you seem to wish to avoid direct interaction. Is this intentional on your part ? I think not it seems like a oversight.

    Please Sir El Conquistador our moderator, be more specific so we can understand you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    Hanermo, you always reply and never address the person directly. We do not know with certainty who you may be addressing.
    He does, he just does it back-asswards- he puts the post he is commenting on after his remarks.

    He doesn't read the replies to his own posts, he just repeats his errors over and over, like some kind of posting bot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    Well-posted, eloquent, but wrong.

    1. Factories don´t drop their prices.
    Big fail there. Factories do drop their prices. You are wrong.

    My Customers Don’t Pay Trump’s Tariffs - WSJ

    Lookup the producer price indices for China - it's been going down since this all started. Could also be due to oversupply, but obviously given the evidence like above, you can't put lowering prices out of the question. It does happen.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    2. True.
    I have no idea what "#2" is. You should put what you're referring to here.
    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    3. No. Wrong.
    The importer always pays the tariff.
    The importer may eat the cost increase. This reduces his profits aka dvidends, earnings, stock market values.
    And the exporter may eat the cost increase, as noted above. Or the currency may weaken which means the nation as a whole eats it. Or it is gamed in other ways like I explained before.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    4. Disagree.
    There is no burden of proof on anyone.
    More tariffs are more costs, and they are paid for by the US importer/seller and/or the consumer in a minimax.
    Prove it. Tariffs were instated that raised the price of imported goods by 10%-25%. If it did this, then this would be shown in the consumer price index. There are even subindices for specific goods categories in this index. So the burden of proof lies on people like you to prove it. Where is this extra 10-25%? I do not see inflation rising any more than before. Just because you say something does not make it true.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    5.
    There has been no major inflation.
    True.
    But inflation has nothing to do with import duties and the macro economy profitability.
    Completely and totally incorrect.
    "nothing to do with import duties" - if a good is tariffed, its price increases for consumers, according to you. That is what inflation in the CPI measures. It measures the increase in prices of goods that consumers buy.
    "nothing to do with....the macro economy" - Inflation is what the Federal Reserve looks at, it's what economies across the world look at. It is a major indicator. I shouldn't even have to explain myself here; anyone can lookup "inflation" and monetary policy or whatever else and find troves of articles, books, whatever, explaining this.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    Example.
    The US pays 25B$, now, to US farmers because they cannot ship soybeans to china.
    850.000 tons, iirc.
    This is lost production, lost economic activity.
    Except for it was not 25 billion on a net basis. We already covered this, remember? If you still believe it is, then the UK is going to save over 300 million a week by leaving the EU. Both are gross figures, so by your logic, both are 100% correct. Hanermo is a Brexiteer in case no one noticed.

    So if you take it down to what it really is, which is probably a few billion dollars, if even that (it may be fully covered by tariffs now, idk), it's pennies in the grand scheme of things. Our federal budget is something like 4 and a half trillion dollars. You're talking about not even 0.05% of the budget.
    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    One cannot game economics.
    Import duties, tariffs, licenses, cannot be profitable.
    Then why do all countries (except 2-3) have import tariffs? Explain that. I'll wait for you to do so like I've been waiting for you to explain a whole assortment of other things I've asked you about and you never, ever reply with an explanation.
    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    Reduction Ad A. the US could in Your narrative tariff everything 1000% or whatever, import less, and be rich and happy forever.
    No....idk where you got that from.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    I think You agree the US cannot tariff iphones and car parts enough to pay for all fired US workers in phone sector and auto parts sectors.
    We already tariff those things. Did you not realize that? We already have thousands of tariffs before Trump ever came around. Please educate yourself before you babble on about this. Autos is a terrible example: we have rules of origin in NAFTA that even specify how much content has to be produced within the NAFTA signatories to even get duty-free access. Again, there is no such thing as free trade; you're being lied to. You need to realize that. And once you've admitted/realized that protections are used across the board by everyone, you've now opened the door to why or why not use tariffs to try to help the US, which is exactly the conversation that everybody needs to have. If it were so black and white, then the way this is talked about would make sense. But is isn't.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    It does not appear to be happening though. Prices have not gone up.
    You have not bought anything in a long time, I guess. Prices in the US are nuts. Prices in Canada are worse but at least they get something for their money.

    The Yuan has gone down, exporters have lowered their prices. Maybe importers are paying more, but it hasn't trickled down to consumers yet.
    Janco, "The Yuan" is a foreigner thing, like Peking. There is no such thing.

    "The yuan" did not "go down", Beijing dropped the exchange rate. For a reason. That makes imports cost more compared to local products. That redirects some of the exports to domestic consumption. No one, anywhere else on the planet, can spend renminbi. It matters zero to Chinese people, they are paying nothing. They just won't buy US stuff. It does cost a little bit of income to the government, which means they can't buy up Africa as fast. They have plenty in the bank, they can ride that out.

    Long-term, it will discourage imports to China.

    My stainless is at pre-tariff levels. I just ordered some aluminum- I will pay $10 more on a 220# order than I paid in 2016. I think I can live with it.
    A few months ago I bought a milkshake for $5 Canadian. Who gives a shit ? Unlike gasoline prices, which are a scam, retail cost increases take a while to work through the system.

    You don't like taxes, I'm betting. Yet this asshole has just levied a 25% tax on much of what the US buys. If he'd proposed a 3% tax to actually build anything you'd all be screaming. But what he did was finance his giveaway to the wealthy by adding a large tax on the average person. And you are cheering.

    The guy is a genius in some ways. Psychology vs reason, psychology wins another round.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    You have not bought anything in a long time, I guess. Prices in the US are nuts. Prices in Canada are worse but at least they get something for their money.
    United States Inflation Rate | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

    Prices broadly are not moving upward by 10-25% in response to the tariffs. This is not debatable.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Janco, "The Yuan" is a foreigner thing, like Peking. There is no such thing.

    "The yuan" did not "go down", Beijing dropped the exchange rate. For a reason. That makes imports cost more compared to local products. That redirects some of the exports to domestic consumption. No one, anywhere else on the planet, can spend renminbi. It matters zero to Chinese people, they are paying nothing.
    It is a real thing. You sound bonkers when you say this. Every country has currency. The yuan is China's currency.

    You do not know that they dropped that rate or not. It may have simply traded below 7. Afterall, as I've told you and you keep trying to deny, they maintain their exchange rate within a band. They have to intervene to keep it within that band. That is how their currency peg is setup. It is how many countries have their currency peg setup.

    It may not have been what they wanted. Who knows? Not you, not me, only Chinese central bank officials.

    Secondly, people can use renminbi/yuan. There is an offshore market. Because there is an offshore market, that means people offshore want yuan. That means they trade that yuan for something else. So that means that they do, in fact, spend yuan outside of China. Just because you can't run into a convenience store and throw down yuan to pay for a drink doesn't mean it isn't spent at all outside of the country.

    "they are paying nothing" - incorrect. China does not make everything. For example, how about pork prices going up? That did happen since this started. How about other prices going up? China does not only export, they also import. I'm starting to think you just ignore whatever doesn't fit what you want to hear, and give a double-sided bias to whatever does. It affects the US, it affects China. You don't get to pick one out of two. The question is how and how much - when you run a massive trade deficit and the other side takes a lot of the hit through various means or is nullified through other ways, it makes it less impactful for the US.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    They have plenty in the bank, they can ride that out.
    Then by that logic, we can ride that out even better since our impact in real economic terms is less and we have the world's reserve currency.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    You don't like taxes, I'm betting. Yet this asshole has just levied a 25% tax on much of what the US buys. If he'd proposed a 3% tax to actually build anything you'd all be screaming. But what he did was finance his giveaway to the wealthy by adding a large tax on the average person. And you are cheering.

    The guy is a genius in some ways. Psychology vs reason, psychology wins another round.
    How about all the taxes China levies to its citizens? Higher than in the US. Just a simple average of all tariff lines is about 3% for us, while it's around 10% for China. That doesn't count the many other ways they tax through non-tariff barriers in China. You know that. Why is it good for China but bad for the US?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    Big fail there. Factories do drop their prices. You are wrong.

    My Customers Don’t Pay Trump’s Tariffs - WSJ

    Lookup the producer price indices for China - it's been going down since this all started. Could also be due to oversupply, but obviously given the evidence like above, you can't put lowering prices out of the question. It does happen.



    I have no idea what "#2" is. You should put what you're referring to here.


    And the exporter may eat the cost increase, as noted above. Or the currency may weaken which means the nation as a whole eats it. Or it is gamed in other ways like I explained before.



    Prove it. Tariffs were instated that raised the price of imported goods by 10%-25%. If it did this, then this would be shown in the consumer price index. There are even subindices for specific goods categories in this index. So the burden of proof lies on people like you to prove it. Where is this extra 10-25%? I do not see inflation rising any more than before. Just because you say something does not make it true.



    Completely and totally incorrect.
    "nothing to do with import duties" - if a good is tariffed, its price increases for consumers, according to you. That is what inflation in the CPI measures. It measures the increase in prices of goods that consumers buy.
    "nothing to do with....the macro economy" - Inflation is what the Federal Reserve looks at, it's what economies across the world look at. It is a major indicator. I shouldn't even have to explain myself here; anyone can lookup "inflation" and monetary policy or whatever else and find troves of articles, books, whatever, explaining this.



    Except for it was not 25 billion on a net basis. We already covered this, remember? If you still believe it is, then the UK is going to save over 300 million a week by leaving the EU. Both are gross figures, so by your logic, both are 100% correct. Hanermo is a Brexiteer in case no one noticed.

    So if you take it down to what it really is, which is probably a few billion dollars, if even that (it may be fully covered by tariffs now, idk), it's pennies in the grand scheme of things. Our federal budget is something like 4 and a half trillion dollars. You're talking about not even 0.05% of the budget.


    Then why do all countries (except 2-3) have import tariffs? Explain that. I'll wait for you to do so like I've been waiting for you to explain a whole assortment of other things I've asked you about and you never, ever reply with an explanation.


    No....idk where you got that from.



    We already tariff those things. Did you not realize that? We already have thousands of tariffs before Trump ever came around. Please educate yourself before you babble on about this. Autos is a terrible example: we have rules of origin in NAFTA that even specify how much content has to be produced within the NAFTA signatories to even get duty-free access. Again, there is no such thing as free trade; you're being lied to. You need to realize that. And once you've admitted/realized that protections are used across the board by everyone, you've now opened the door to why or why not use tariffs to try to help the US, which is exactly the conversation that everybody needs to have. If it were so black and white, then the way this is talked about would make sense. But is isn't.
    He just throws out these self imagined numbers and never addresses anyone who contests his post ever! Sometimes he is accurate.

    Just saying he is doing this intentionally. His posts always portrays America in the worst light regardless of the issue 100 percent of the time.

    Obviously he has not made many American friends.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    "consumers are obviously not paying it 100%."
    .
    This is true.
    Some companies are eating the price increases as consumers simply won't pay more.
    So where does the money come from?
    It has not been bad yet as the bigger hit is still not here.
    These companies need to make a certain profit level to exist so that means cost cutting somewhere.

    "Due to increasing operating costs we will be reducing the wage increases this year in order to sustain the company and employment levels."
    "Also due to normal attrition in the workplace we will be bringing on temp workers to replace some full time positions"
    "We appreciate the efforts our staff has given and regret this but economic conditions force us to take these actions."
    Have you been there for that meeting? Long faces but it's not like the workforce is going to revolt and quit.

    In many cases the consumers are not paying but somebody is. This won't show up in any CPI report.
    More than one way to skin a cat, not so sure this bodes well for average worker bees.

    Price increases mean market share and nobody want to go there in a hope that sanity will prevail so they find creative ways to cut money out of the other side of the budget.
    This is a band aid and not sustainable long term with unemployment where it stands. Everyone up top knows this.

    There is the part time temp worker with no benefits model which could easily cover the extra payments to the government.
    Prices do not need to rise, the company still makes money, Uncle Sam takes in lots of cash.
    Somebody still gets the short end of the stick but as long as it not me.... all is good and more important we are stepping on or hurting China in some form so yea-yea wave the flag.
    I fear our rage against China and our loss of good paying manufacturing jobs to them and automation have blinded us.
    We seem to just need someone to hate and place blame on for things not being better. Perhaps that is inborn human nature.
    Bob

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    What with abandoning our ally, the Kurds, in Syria, leading to their slaughter by Turkey, Trump has promised to slap a 25% tariff on frozen turkeys in retaliation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    It is a real thing. You sound bonkers when you say this. Every country has currency. The yuan is China's currency.
    In your fucking dreams. You speak chinese now ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    In your fucking dreams. You speak chinese now ?
    Yeah, only in my dreams do people in China use a form of currency. It's just Wall street lies again or whatever. Just like you mysteriously know China recently intervened to weaken the exchange rate to where it is (despite having no way of knowing), or how you "knew" China doesn't maintain their currency within a band or use foreign exchange reserves to do so...even though they do. You're some kind of genius. The kind that eats notebook paper and rides on a short bus.

    Is this guy for real? I mean, really. This is real discussion on this forum?

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    Why do all the replies assume companies will continue to buy made in China goods and pay the 25% tariff? Like the Chinese they switch to a lower tariff country to buy their no name commodity goods.
    I wonder if walmart is now selling goods not made in China? maybe Vietnam etc. How do big companies write their long term supply contracts? Can they back out if tariffs increase?
    Bil lD

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    Will you two buggers stop arguing about the name of the currency?

    Explanation for people who are too busy scoring points off each other to finish their statements properly:-

    Renminbi is the currency of China, like Sterling is the currency of the UK. The Yuan is the primary unit of Renminbi, with subunits of Jiao and Fen. The pound is the primary unit of Sterling, with subunits of Pence.

    Understand now???

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    The Yuan is the primary unit of Renminbi, with subunits of Jiao and Fen.
    That's the point. People do not use that word. It's an overseas foreigner thing. Yi jiao, yi fen (no one uses fen anymore, either, the amount is too tiny, like Canada with pennies) yes but yuan, almost never. The official "unit" but it is a word no one uses. It's more common for US people to use bits.

    Making statements about "the yuan" mostly illustrates ignorance. When people "explain" how things work in China but don't even know the correct words, I'd be skeptical.

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    ohhhh, you're talking about what people call it, not that money somehow doesn't exist or something. nvm

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill D View Post
    Why do all the replies assume companies will continue to buy made in China goods and pay the 25% tariff? Like the Chinese they switch to a lower tariff country to buy their no name commodity goods.
    I wonder if walmart is now selling goods not made in China? maybe Vietnam etc. How do big companies write their long term supply contracts? Can they back out if tariffs increase?
    Bil lD
    no name stuff has mostly shifted from china years ago. After 2008, 100,000 factories near Shanghai went out of business, and most of the stuff they made- christmas tree lights, 3 dollar tee shirts, action figures, plastic cups, halloween decorations- they got made in places like Bangladesh and Cambodia.

    What we DO buy that comes from China, some of which falls under the tariffs, and some doesnt, (yet) is stulff we are unlikely to quit buying-
    Apple phones and computers, along with pretty much every other brand of phones and computers
    Ryobi, Millwaukee, Black and Decker, and most other hand power tools
    A lot of Caterpillar parts, and some smaller cat machines- Cat has over 20 factories in China.
    Most all "name brand" USA old time manufacturer plumbing fixtures, light fixtures, builders hardware, kitchen ware, pots and pans, small appliances like microwaves and coffeemakers
    Most furniture you can afford- recliners, sofas, kitchen chairs- again, mostly US brand names
    Pretty much every lawn mower, push or riding, most small garden tools, hoses, and wheelbarrows
    and on, and on-

    look around your life.
    pick out the "american" brands you own, that you bought at places like Home Depot or Walmart or Tractor Supply or Target-
    and see what the country of origin is.

    most is china.

    Not to mention Buicks, and Caddies- more and more of those sold in the USA are made in China.

    People will still go to Home Depot, and they will pay more for that riding mower or that cordless drill, and it wont even occur to them its because of tariffs- because it says "Milwaukee" or "John Deere" right on it. Pretty much everybody I know has a phone, and a bluetooth speaker- made in china.
    and everybody is carrying one of those fancy keep warm insulated aluminum coffee cups or water bottles- made in china.


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