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  1. #1881
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    This is why I can't understand brand loyalty at all. Brands are nothing but pure propaganda. You really are just paying for which color of paint you like slapped on to your Chinese crap.

    Snap-on, Harbor Freight settle floor jack case

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    People will still go to Home Depot, and they will pay more for that riding mower or that cordless drill, and it wont even occur to them its because of tariffs- because it says "Milwaukee" or "John Deere" right on it. Pretty much everybody I know has a phone, and a bluetooth speaker- made in china.
    and everybody is carrying one of those fancy keep warm insulated aluminum coffee cups or water bottles- made in china.
    Are those drills going up?

    https://beta.bls.gov/dataQuery/find?fq=survey:[cu]&s=popularity&q=tools

    Edit: that "big grin" emoticon in the URL is not my doing - it just happens to have a text string in the URL that this website uses for that. Just fyi - wasn't being snarky there.

    CPI takes tools, and many other categories, separately so you can compare with past years. By their data, it's gone up about 3% since those tariffs. That's a heck of a lot less than 10-25%.

    For comparison, all services excluding energy services, have risen a little over 3% in the same timeframe. Services are not subject to tariffs.

    https://beta.bls.gov/dataQuery/find?fq=survey:[cu]&s=popularity&q=services+less%20energy

    So is it really going up? You're saying they're paying more, but I don't see it. I bought a new phone recently (I seem to need a new one every 6 months or so - I buy cheap and travel a lot), and noticed several, including the one I bought, now are assembled in Vietnam instead of China. I think the idea that more sourcing will take place elsewhere is valid - I understand that not all the supply chains are built out, but I don't buy the idea that it isn't being done already across many things or can't be done (not saying you're saying that exactly).
    Last edited by nyc123; 10-15-2019 at 05:00 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CAMasochism View Post
    This is why I can't understand brand loyalty at all. Brands are nothing but pure propaganda. You really are just paying for which color of paint you like slapped on to your Chinese crap.

    Snap-on, Harbor Freight settle floor jack case

    "Harbor Freight also alleged Snap-on’s jacks were made in the same factory as the Harbor Freight ones and the company’s business model is what caused a higher price. Snap-on denied those allegations in its response.
    "

    Snap-on sells its 2-ton and 3-ton floor jacks for $550 to $650 while Harbor Freight offers its similar models for $199 or less.

    “Believing that many consumers prefer jacks made in the United States—and will not pay $550 to $650-plus for jacks made in China—Snap-on has deceptively and repeatedly told consumers that the FJ200 and FJ300 are ‘assembled in the USA,’” the Harbor Freight counter claim says.


    And I hear things like "they're all working on small margins"

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    Are those drills going up?

    &s=popularity&q=tools]BLS Data Finder

    CPI takes tools, and many other categories, separately so you can compare with past years. By their data, it's gone up about 3% since those tariffs. That's a heck of a lot less than 10-25%.

    For comparison, all services excluding energy services, have risen a little over 3% in the same timeframe. Services are not subject to tariffs.

    &s=popularity&q=services+less%20energy]BLS Data Finder

    So is it really going up? You're saying they're paying more, but I don't see it. I bought a new phone recently (I seem to need a new one every 6 months or so - I buy cheap and travel a lot), and noticed several, including the one I bought, now are assembled in Vietnam instead of China. I think the idea that more sourcing will take place elsewhere is valid - I understand that not all the supply chains are built out, but I don't buy the idea that it isn't being done already across many things or can't be done (not saying you're saying that exactly).
    I, too, can google.
    But I also buy tools regularly, which I guess you dont.
    Am I seeing direct increases in prices yet?
    no, but I have seen steady inflation in the cost of good tools over the last 40 years I have been buying em.
    And, yes, the Chinese ones have, indeed, been steadily climbing in price over the last few years, regardless of what the CPI says.
    No, I dont expect an individual cordless drill to go up 25%.
    But if tariffs continue, we will see increases.

    There is hardly a product that doesnt contain a chinese made motor or switch or capacitor or wire or bolt.
    Again, look at the country of origin of the simple things around you.

    When you say, "supply chanins are built out"- you arent talking about Lincoln Welders, or Kohler sinks and faucets, or Buick cars, or Caterpillar hydraulic hoses, or Briggs and Stratton small engines, or Dewalt tools, or Hoover vaccuums or Gilette razors, or dozens of other brands which make products for the USA in their own factories. They have the sunk costs of the factory already, and cannot just get a bid from Bangladesh. Kohler, for example, has state of the art stainless sink stamping plants, cast iron foundries, ceramic factories, and more, in China, since about 25 years ago. They make their own products, not outsource.

    This is common with many many US companies.
    And, yes, many of them HAVE announced price increases due to the tariffs- Cat, for example, paid over $200 million in tariffs in 2018, and raised prices last year, and again, this year. 2019, they are estimating closer to $300 million out of pocket due to tariffs- again, mainly from in-house factories in china.
    Caterpillar to raise prices to combat tariffs - MarketWatch
    https://www.bizjournals.com/baltimor...ecause-of.html

    If you are just a consumer, buying things from big box stores, the price increases probably will be less.
    But many of us buy industrial equipment, tools, fasteners, and raw materials, all of which have slimmer margins, and many of which have already gone up in the last year and a half. I have certainly seen small price increases on many things I buy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CAMasochism View Post
    This is why I can't understand brand loyalty at all. Brands are nothing but pure propaganda. You really are just paying for which color of paint you like slapped on to your Chinese crap.

    Snap-on, Harbor Freight settle floor jack case

    I cant speak for Harbor Freight, as I dont have anything from there- but, if you buy much, you quickly learn which brands are worth sticking with.
    I buy pretty much exclusively Bosch and Metabo hand power tools, for example, with well over 20 of those two brands, and I certainly l believe there is a difference between them and Dewalt made in China tools. I buy certain brands of drill bits, or bolts, or sanding discs, or bandsaw blades, because, over decades of buying lots of em, and trying different ones, I have found concrete differences between brands.

    Usually brands count when you are buying more expensive, quality stuff.
    I have no doubt Ace hardware has stuff made in the same plants as Harbor Freight, but I buy Klein screwdrivers, Wiss and Klenck sheet metal tools, Starrett measuring tools, Klingspor abrasives, and in all those cases, there is a huge difference, well beyond paint, from the big box brands.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    I, too, can google.
    But I also buy tools regularly, which I guess you dont.
    Am I seeing direct increases in prices yet?
    no
    , but I have seen steady inflation in the cost of good tools over the last 40 years I have been buying em.
    And, yes, the Chinese ones have, indeed, been steadily climbing in price over the last few years, regardless of what the CPI says.
    No, I dont expect an individual cordless drill to go up 25%.
    But if tariffs continue, we will see increases.
    Great, thanks for making it clear it isn't only consumers that bear the burden of this. It needed to be done. Also, I wouldn't really classify that under just "googling". Googling gets you all sorts of opinion pieces from "news" companies that tell you consumers pay, price increases are coming (they've been "coming" for over a year), etc., the global economy will end, blah blah blah. The CPI is not that at all. It isn't an opinion. It's where they actually look at certain types of goods and record inflation month to month and have whole swathes of govt employees doing so. Google is not going to give you that if you just search "price increases". Please lay off the "we will see increases" bit unless you're going to specify when that is. Everybody has been saying that ever since this started and it hasn't materialized. That's like asking me when a recession will happen and me just saying "it will happen if time continues".

    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    There is hardly a product that doesnt contain a chinese made motor or switch or capacitor or wire or bolt.
    Again, look at the country of origin of the simple things around you.
    Most of that can be sourced elsewhere, or gamed through rules of origin whereby the final imported product isn't subject to tariffs.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    When you say, "supply chanins are built out"- you arent talking about Lincoln Welders, or Kohler sinks and faucets, or Buick cars, or Caterpillar hydraulic hoses, or Briggs and Stratton small engines, or Dewalt tools, or Hoover vaccuums or Gilette razors, or dozens of other brands which make products for the USA in their own factories. They have the sunk costs of the factory already, and cannot just get a bid from Bangladesh. Kohler, for example, has state of the art stainless sink stamping plants, cast iron foundries, ceramic factories, and more, in China, since about 25 years ago. They make their own products, not outsource.
    They have competitors, who produce in other countries, have different pricing, etc. This is the issue someone else highlighted - there's two really faulty assumptions made: you can only source in China and those brands are the only brands you can buy, neither of which are the case for most things.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    This is common with many many US companies.
    And, yes, many of them HAVE announced price increases due to the tariffs- Cat, for example, paid over $200 million in tariffs in 2018, and raised prices last year, and again, this year. 2019, they are estimating closer to $300 million out of pocket due to tariffs- again, mainly from in-house factories in china.
    Yet we don't see broad price increases. Like I said before, there's some here and there, but it's minor and very anecdotal - there has been no broad uptick in prices because of tariffs, yet we're near to tariffing every single thing that comes out of China. That says a lot. If it were broad, it'd be borne out by the stats.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    If you are just a consumer, buying things from big box stores, the price increases probably will be less.
    But many of us buy industrial equipment, tools, fasteners, and raw materials, all of which have slimmer margins, and many of which have already gone up in the last year and a half. I have certainly seen small price increases on many things I buy.
    "small price increases" - of what? Small is definitely a good way of putting it. 3% is pretty near normal inflation. The CPI is measuring each category of goods. They have subindices for just about everything. That index is for "Tools, hardware, outdoor equipment and supplies". I'm going to trust BLS data and other statistics over anecdotes with no real evidence

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    I think you way underestimate the frictional costs of switching suppliers, either as an importer, a manufacturer, or a customer.
    I have been buying Kohler plumbing stuff for 40 years- I know it and trust it. If it goes up, I am most likely sticking with it. Same with a bunch of other stuff I have used a long time, and know the issues with.

    your idea that you can just switch countries of origin, overnight, is fine for t shirts or stamped stainless flatware- but the economies of scale, the infrastructure, and relationships for many many products are built up to the point where, for many companies, it aint worth it.

    Caterpillar is a good example- with 20 factories in china, their internal supply chain is invested there to the tune of billions.
    And who are you going to switch to overnight? Most of their competition, for things like excavators, are also sourcing heavily from China.
    Foxconn has plants in china with literally hundreds of Haas and Brother VMC's cranking out phone and electronic parts- even if you had ten billion to set up a competing factory somewhere else, the lead times to buy the machinery are in the 2-5 year range.

    Or shoes- something like 90% of all the shoes sold in the USA come from China.
    There are entire cities there which make, more efficiently, cheaper, and in unbelievable quantities, the foam for soles, the synthetic fabrics for uppers, the grommets, the rubber parts- even assuming you were willing to take the risk to invest the billions needed to compete, there is no guarantee you could match prices or quality.
    Odds are that we would just see "assembled in vietnam from chinese materials".

    Fact is, in huge swaths of the imports, nobody is moving sourcing to other countries- they will just bite the bullet til they cant anymore, then raise prices.

    Hell- whats 15% or 25% to a customer that is already paying $150 for a pair of Nikes?
    Nike is so heavily invested in every part of the process, from design to fabric manufacturing to assembly to shipping with the chinese, that you could probably put a man on the moon cheaper than moving a portion of their production.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    I think you way underestimate the frictional costs of switching suppliers, either as an importer, a manufacturer, or a customer.
    I have been buying Kohler plumbing stuff for 40 years- I know it and trust it. If it goes up, I am most likely sticking with it. Same with a bunch of other stuff I have used a long time, and know the issues with.

    your idea that you can just switch countries of origin, overnight, is fine for t shirts or stamped stainless flatware- but the economies of scale, the infrastructure, and relationships for many many products are built up to the point where, for many companies, it aint worth it.

    Caterpillar is a good example- with 20 factories in china, their internal supply chain is invested there to the tune of billions.
    And who are you going to switch to overnight? Most of their competition, for things like excavators, are also sourcing heavily from China.
    Foxconn has plants in china with literally hundreds of Haas and Brother VMC's cranking out phone and electronic parts- even if you had ten billion to set up a competing factory somewhere else, the lead times to buy the machinery are in the 2-5 year range.

    Or shoes- something like 90% of all the shoes sold in the USA come from China.
    There are entire cities there which make, more efficiently, cheaper, and in unbelievable quantities, the foam for soles, the synthetic fabrics for uppers, the grommets, the rubber parts- even assuming you were willing to take the risk to invest the billions needed to compete, there is no guarantee you could match prices or quality.
    Odds are that we would just see "assembled in vietnam from chinese materials".

    Fact is, in huge swaths of the imports, nobody is moving sourcing to other countries- they will just bite the bullet til they cant anymore, then raise prices.

    Hell- whats 15% or 25% to a customer that is already paying $150 for a pair of Nikes?
    Nike is so heavily invested in every part of the process, from design to fabric manufacturing to assembly to shipping with the chinese, that you could probably put a man on the moon cheaper than moving a portion of their production.
    Ok. Let's take that then and look at what's happened after going on two years now. Is corporate profitability growth down? If not, then obviously they are working around this somehow. We have had our trade deficits with other countries like Vietnam go up. Looks like Vietnamese imports for goods went up about 20-30% or more on average.

    So if companies who use imported components, or sell imported components or whatever else, have not seen their profits hit equally by the amount of tariffs on those costs, then obviously somehow they really are not having much frictional costs to deal with.

    I'm not asking this as a rhetorical question; I'm legitimately asking. As far as I know, this hasn't happened, because the equity market, even industrials, have not taken some huge hit. If they suddenly had much higher costs, they would have to take that hit. If they're not taking the hit, then they would have to raise prices. We already saw that the latter isn't the case. And I have doubts it's the former, either. If neither are the case, then I don't see how I'd be underestimating it, because again, it would be borne out in the data. A lot of these are huge companies that have to publish quarterly reports where they detail their costs, etc., and would make this clear.

    The other bit that no one seems to mention is rules of origin. You could have a large portion of your product manufactured in China, then simply shift a small part of it in many instances to another country. The majority of the product could still be made in China, but if the final process before export was done in another country, the country of origin could now be that other country. Therefore, you would not be hit with any of the China tariffs despite the good being mostly of Chinese origin. I believe a lot of companies are doing this, as well.

    For me to believe that these companies are having big problems, or that consumers are mostly paying for this, I'd want to see evidence that that is the case. I haven't seen evidence of this. Because of that, I continue to believe the reality is the things that everyone can clearly see through evidence: the yuan is weaker, producer prices coming out of China are weaker, alternative sourcing is shown via a rise in exports from other countries, and supply chain shifts to meet rules of origin would also be exemplified through those same rises in exports outside of China. For me to believe it's companies and consumers, I would want to see large manufacturers are reporting broad, higher input costs that match the 10-25% rises via tariffs, and I'd want to see that consumers are paying 10-25% more. I have seen neither of those on a broad scale.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    no name stuff has mostly shifted from china years ago. After 2008, 100,000 factories near Shanghai went out of business,
    They didn't go broke or anything, the city just got rid of them in the cleanup for Expo 2008. That was a sad time, they shut down a lot of the Wild West features of Shanghai (and Beijing, for the Olympics a couple years earlier.)

    Not sure that went to Bangladesh tho, there's still lots of junky stuff made in other areas of the country. Shanghai is kind of expensive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nyc123 View Post
    Ok. Let's take that then and look at what's happened after going on two years now. Is corporate profitability growth down? If not, then obviously they are working around this somehow. We have had our trade deficits with other countries like Vietnam go up. Looks like Vietnamese imports for goods went up about 20-30% or more on average.

    So if companies who use imported components, or sell imported components or whatever else, have not seen their profits hit equally by the amount of tariffs on those costs, then obviously somehow they really are not having much frictional costs to deal with.

    I'm not asking this as a rhetorical question; I'm legitimately asking. As far as I know, this hasn't happened, because the equity market, even industrials, have not taken some huge hit. If they suddenly had much higher costs, they would have to take that hit. If they're not taking the hit, then they would have to raise prices. We already saw that the latter isn't the case. And I have doubts it's the former, either. If neither are the case, then I don't see how I'd be underestimating it, because again, it would be borne out in the data. A lot of these are huge companies that have to publish quarterly reports where they detail their costs, etc., and would make this clear.

    The other bit that no one seems to mention is rules of origin. You could have a large portion of your product manufactured in China, then simply shift a small part of it in many instances to another country. The majority of the product could still be made in China, but if the final process before export was done in another country, the country of origin could now be that other country. Therefore, you would not be hit with any of the China tariffs despite the good being mostly of Chinese origin. I believe a lot of companies are doing this, as well.

    For me to believe that these companies are having big problems, or that consumers are mostly paying for this, I'd want to see evidence that that is the case. I haven't seen evidence of this. Because of that, I continue to believe the reality is the things that everyone can clearly see through evidence: the yuan is weaker, producer prices coming out of China are weaker, alternative sourcing is shown via a rise in exports from other countries, and supply chain shifts to meet rules of origin would also be exemplified through those same rises in exports outside of China. For me to believe it's companies and consumers, I would want to see large manufacturers are reporting broad, higher input costs that match the 10-25% rises via tariffs, and I'd want to see that consumers are paying 10-25% more. I have seen neither of those on a broad scale.
    Seems that one factor is what may be a tactic to be used is shipping product at no charge or as replacement for damaged goods. It is a common was to give discounts and lets face it there is a lot of profit between the cost of goods and the high profits. To assume that China is so profitable to ever lose and strong to me To be too unrealistic or too pie in the sky.

    I am suspicious of that mindset seeing supporters of the status quo because it benefits individual business interest. These are those who thrive nd make their livelihoods on this kind of sellout of the American worker and industrial complex.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    They didn't go broke or anything, the city just got rid of them in the cleanup for Expo 2008. That was a sad time, they shut down a lot of the Wild West features of Shanghai (and Beijing, for the Olympics a couple years earlier.)

    Not sure that went to Bangladesh tho, there's still lots of junky stuff made in other areas of the country. Shanghai is kind of expensive.
    not what was reported at the time. I am referring not just to the city- but the area.
    Here, for example, the Guardian claims that 7000 toy factories went out of business.
    China's toy makers face bleak Christmas as factories shut down - Telegraph

    this article says 67,000 factories went out of business in the 2008 recession.
    Factories Shut, China Workers Are Suffering - The New York Times

    this article says early on, the official Chinese press was admitting 7000 factories closed- causing a little riot- Workers riot at Chinese toy factory | The Star

    I am not defending China, or saying I think tariffs are always bad.
    I think tariffs are a legitimate tool to use- I just think these tariffs arent very well thought out, and WILL have an effect, (really, already are- the articles I linked to in the last post quote CAT as saying they are losing money, and raising prices)

    I also think that the integration between the chinese and american economies is pretty deep, and while factories can certainly be built in other places, its not just a simple matter of ordering from another supplier.

    CAT, for instance, makes all its hydraulic hoses for all its products worldwide itself- they dont buy from anyone else. And their main factory for this, as I understand it, is in China. They are currently paying $300 million a year in tariffs for these and other CAT made parts from China. My guess is that the amount would have to up by an order of magnitude before it would be financially feasible to abandon their china factories and build new ones somewhere else.

    Sure, they could build a new factory- but it would take years, and cost a lot of money.
    So they are just hoping for the tariffs to go away.
    Like many US companies- they are just too entangled in China to make it easy to switch overnight.

    As I mentioned before, about FoxConn- there arent enough machines to buy to build a new factory to replace many of these plants- even if money was no object, the lead time to get 1000 Haas mills is years. And Haas is very happy to sell a couple hundred machines a month to China. They would be even happier to get a 1000 machie order, but it would not be delivered overnight.

    Big ships change direction very slowly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    I am not defending China, or saying I think tariffs are always bad.
    I think tariffs are a legitimate tool to use- I just think these tariffs arent very well thought out.
    I totally agree with that segment. I don't think what's being done is the right thing - I think it's better than nothing in that it got it talked about and something started, but that's about it. Other than that, I think it's misguided, shortsighted, and has generally failed in the grand scheme overall. Friends of mine tend to think I'm defending it as great, when really all I'm doing is just calling it for what it is, along with the effects it actually has caused. Unfortunately, most people want to pick a team, and if you're on that team, then if someone says something, anything bad about the other team, you have to go along with it whether you know or whether it's even true or not. I'm not playing that game.

    Same goes for China. I don't think everything going on there on their part is bad and some of the flack they catch is misguided.

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    My prediction and the belief of some I know in the game is that the tariff war with China will end before July-August of next year with a basic return to the before and with maybe a few tiny things different and was the entire plan.
    If it does we all will know it was all simply politics, votes, smoke and mirrors.
    The timing and upping the ante seems to me too precise. To his credit that guy in the white house knows that game and timing very well.
    Let's see how it all ramps up or down in this time frame.

    If things where normal I'd bet heavily on this.
    However you can't outlaw crazy if other things begin to control the news cycle and it becomes needed to rev this up for soundbites and headlines to move the action.
    Winners here are yet to be determined.
    At this current point are all those jobs flooding back into the USA for the money gather by Uncle Sam?
    If you grab 200 thousand for every 60 thousand a year job created is that progress?
    And then you give out money to those hit by all of it that makes the GM loan bailout look like pennies.
    That is sort of buried but some of my friends are glad for the check. Can I add the stranger still that that it takes more days for US government check to clear than a private one?
    Games and positioning for power or wealth..... Is this all we have?
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    not what was reported at the time. I am referring not just to the city- but the area.
    Because you have a brain, I am going to suggest something : read Master of the Senate, Robert Caro. A few hundred pages in, you will see what I am talking about re the press. The man does have a viewpoint but it is similar to yours, so you should enjoy the book. And it does explain a lot of things about the Senate (and the press).

    A couple of small things - Shanghai is one of four cities that are also "areas." I haven't read those articles and won't bother, but if they talk about Shanghai (which extends way east and west to include huge areas in pudong and jiading and malu and minhang and baoshan, well, the impetus was the Expo cleanup.

    Many of what the US press calls "factories" would not even be called a "shop" by us. Stinky little ratholes with a rusty version of a bridgeport and some tube-powered nc crap that you wouldn't believe could even turn on. Those places have been converted to classy haircut salons or convenience stores Even the tool stores on beijing lu have been decimated ... too many places for the amount of business. You see that a lot. One person will have a new idea, like dog haircuts. They will do well. A week later there will be fifty dog haircut stores on the same street. Then they all go broke because there's only twelve dogs that need haircuts. It seems to be cultural.

    I would not connect that to anything important.

    btw, they closed down all the pink barbershops at the same time. Thousands of girls out of work and a lot of sad guys. There used to be at least one on every block It's about as relevant to "business" as the other closures. Skank really did clean up the city during those years. They even got rid of the bar streets, where there used to be fifty and sixty girls parading every night, not counting the ones inside. Sad

    I would not attach much importance to those numbers. They didn't close any real factories, just junk.

    About riots, I know some funny stories, but won't bore you. They are actually pretty common.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Because you have a brain, I am going to suggest something : read Master of the Senate, Robert Caro. A few hundred pages in, you will see what I am talking about re the press. The man does have a viewpoint but it is similar to yours, so you should enjoy the book. And it does explain a lot of things about the Senate (and the press).

    A couple of small things - Shanghai is one of four cities that are also "areas." I haven't read those articles and won't bother, but if they talk about Shanghai (which extends way east and west to include huge areas in pudong and jiading and malu and minhang and baoshan, well, the impetus was the Expo cleanup.

    Many of what the US press calls "factories" would not even be called a "shop" by us. Stinky little ratholes with a rusty version of a bridgeport and some tube-powered nc crap that you wouldn't believe could even turn on. Those places have been converted to classy haircut salons or convenience stores Even the tool stores on beijing lu have been decimated ... too many places for the amount of business. You see that a lot. One person will have a new idea, like dog haircuts. They will do well. A week later there will be fifty dog haircut stores on the same street. Then they all go broke because there's only twelve dogs that need haircuts. It seems to be cultural.

    I would not connect that to anything important.

    btw, they closed down all the pink barbershops at the same time. Thousands of girls out of work and a lot of sad guys. There used to be at least one on every block It's about as relevant to "business" as the other closures. Skank really did clean up the city during those years. They even got rid of the bar streets, where there used to be fifty and sixty girls parading every night, not counting the ones inside. Sad

    I would not attach much importance to those numbers. They didn't close any real factories, just junk.

    About riots, I know some funny stories, but won't bore you. They are actually pretty common.
    I have read all the Caro biographies of Johnson.

    However, it is widely acknowledged by everyone but you that low end manufacturing has been moving out of China for over a decade now, and its not being made up by "the press".
    Cambodia, Vietnam, the Phillipines, Bangladesh, and Indonesia have seen gigantic investment in low skill factories.
    Much of it is being done by chinese companies that are finding lower labor costs, more malleable governments, and, of course, the ability to shift "country of origin" as needed.
    The garment industry movement is plain for any global consumer to see- I know, you dont buy clothes in the USA, but if you did, the "made in bangladesh" label would be very familiar. China is huge, there are still many many factories- but the movement of production is fact, not some fantasy of mine.

    If you wont read the articles, I cant see you are telling me anything but opinion.
    Which is fine, but all opinions, including mine, are taken with a healthy dose of skepticism.

    Here is another article you wont read, showing how a large chinese company is shifting low skill toy making to Indonesia- while keeping its chinese factories which are much less export oriented, those that make common everyday products it sells to the Chinese.
    Even though you may not admit it, the Chinese companies have seen this writing on the wall for over a decade, and has been acting accordingly.

    Global-brands-costs-push-Chinese-toy-molder-to-Indonesia

    by the way, I kinda doubt Plastics News is run by left wing agents of the global deep state press conspiracy...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    I have read all the Caro biographies of Johnson.
    And you still believe what you read in the press ?

    However, it is widely acknowledged by everyone but you ...
    I was not arguing that nowhere else is making cheap junk. I was saying that "thousands of factories in Shanghai" did not go broke. They were junky little places that got closed to make the city look wonderful for Expo.

    Besides which, Shanghai is one of the most expensive places in China, so if you were talking about low-end stuff, then Skank was certainly not the place for it. That's been true for more than twenty years.

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    I’m not going to read this entire thread but I don’t think anyone here understands the real goal of the tariffs. There will be no deal. There is no intention of making a deal in the Trump administration. The intent is to drive the US supply chain out of China and disengage the US and Chinese economies. Trump will talk up trade negotiations to keep domestic political adversaries at bay while raising tariffs whenever the health of the US economy can withstand the pressure.
    There was much talk earlier about the farmers and soybeans. Soybeans are a worldwide commodity and there’s no “extra” soybeans. If China doesn’t buy soybeans from the US then they buy them elsewhere. All that does is start a musical chairs game for soybean customers.

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    And what would be the benefits of such a policy?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveinjax View Post
    I’m not going to read this entire thread but I don’t think anyone here understands the real goal of the tariffs. There will be no deal. There is no intention of making a deal in the Trump administration. The intent is to drive the US supply chain out of China and disengage the US and Chinese economies. Trump will talk up trade negotiations to keep domestic political adversaries at bay while raising tariffs whenever the health of the US economy can withstand the pressure.
    There was much talk earlier about the farmers and soybeans. Soybeans are a worldwide commodity and there’s no “extra” soybeans. If China doesn’t buy soybeans from the US then they buy them elsewhere. All that does is start a musical chairs game for soybean customers.
    Why not ask the farmers about that?

    They are not selling their soybeans and are being subsidized by us, the taxpayers.



    What you are missing is that the price of soybeans is set by the market but the cost of raising soybeans is set by costs of the farmer. When demand goes down, price goes down, and when it drops below the fixed costs of the farmer, the farmer is bankrupt.

    Add to that, there are other things that the 'market' can buy besides soybeans.

    trumpski has no complex thought process, he is a moron, and acts like a moron. This is how morons run trade.

    He is right about the amount of times a Magic 8 Ball is right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveinjax View Post
    I’m not going to read this entire thread but I don’t think anyone here understands the real goal of the tariffs. There will be no deal. There is no intention of making a deal in the Trump administration. The intent is to drive the US supply chain out of China and disengage the US and Chinese economies. Trump will talk up trade negotiations to keep domestic political adversaries at bay while raising tariffs whenever the health of the US economy can withstand the pressure.
    There was much talk earlier about the farmers and soybeans. Soybeans are a worldwide commodity and there’s no “extra” soybeans. If China doesn’t buy soybeans from the US then they buy them elsewhere. All that does is start a musical chairs game for soybean customers.

    As I have tried to point out- the US supply chain is inextrcably interwoven with China. There are virtually zero cell phones or laptop computers that are not, at the very least, assembled in China.

    Thats a non-starter.

    And as far as soybeans go- weather affects soybean production. There is not an infinite amount of land soy can be grown on. Most of the slack is being picked up by Brazil- and the burning of the Amazon is a pretty directly related phenomenon.

    But, assuming that the Brazilians and Argentines, who are number 2 and 3 worldwide, get more orders, they will simplly plant more acres. In Argentina, there is a lot of land in oil seed such as sunflower, that could be replanted by the same owners, using the same supply chain, to increase production. Same in Brazil.
    So there is zero guarantee that there is enough market for the US farmers to keep growing soybeans.
    And converting a big farm from one crop to another is expensive- most of these farmers are already quite extended, in terms of loans, and most banks probably wont loan em the money to convert.
    So its pretty much the Trump slush fund that is keeping a lot of midsize US farmers afloat right now- and should that end, for whatever reason, you will see fallout.
    The Trumpian Ag Secretary recently told small farmers, basically, "youre screwed".
    "In America, the big get bigger and the small go out. I don't think in America we, for any small business, we have a guaranteed income or guaranteed profitability."



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