What's new
What's new

Now that the GOP has lost the Senate how will this effect the crude sector?

Status
Not open for further replies.

Trboatworks

Diamond
Joined
Oct 23, 2010
Location
Maryland- USA
I am interested in how this change will direct policy and how those changes will influence crude demand and utilization worldwide.

What are the basic metrics-

1) A reemphasis on alternative to one degree or another.
2) Restrictions on some aspects of domestic production- the where's and how's.
3) Further action to weaken demand side with support for EV or the like.

Crude this morning continues its rally but I take that as far more a general continuing correction of the too deep selloff into the pandemic uncertainty.

I am wondering about the ten year trajectory- I hold that the longer throw is certain- the petroleum age is waning.
But... that process can be slowed or accelerated by the approach taken by large economies.
I feel we have just altered the path to a degree in the US by the outcome of this race for the senate.

To what degree.
An open question and I am asking it.
 
I am interested in how this change will direct policy and how those changes will influence crude demand and utilization worldwide.


To what degree.
An open question and I am asking it.

Dead dinosaur btu or crude only? As the world rapidily went natural gas for electricity they have become somewhat intermixed. Upstream oil likes constancy and known rules. Doesnt matter what the rules are, just that they are known. Biden will help with that - which will greatly expand drilling in north America. (see how obama had set lax rules and more holes drilled than any other time).
Speculators like guessing, so toss a coin- my guess is prices hold and gradually go up in the next 1-3 years. 75 a barrel range. lack of global exploration and any recent finds are not cheap oil. As wells retire this drives price up- not only are we going to need to pay for new holes, but finding where to drill them. Artic reserve is a bust imo. every oil major has tried around it, some highly funded Chinese, Russian, and Canadian ventures too - all turned up nothing - or at least not enough to want to try again. The one well in the reserve proper by Shell is tight, but shell did not bid on a lease - says a lot to me.

The differed maintance on infrastructure over the past few years is going to catch up to the small refineries, leaving fuel prices much higher, fuel high means speculators amp crude stock. mid teir and higher spent billions in the last ten years to run any stock, from anywhere - the smaller teapots only thought about one stock supply (oil sands, nd, west tx, venezuala...) This is good for me personally as a chunk of my hours are refineries general wear and tear replacement parts. As the big boys ramp up their stuff wears out - I get hours.
Butane is the one to watch as a few upstarts are building tankers that run off butane and gen sets are coming online for the same.

I have barely any faith in either party to do anything about dead dino depedance. W did the most with residential solar credits. As solar is now the cheapest wholesale electricity in the us, wind becoming cheapest to produce n. gas turbines will retire because that is the way bizness works. There will be hold outs, but if demand drops enough then the cost starts to invert upward (drill bits cost less than mills - volume). The cafe standards biden might restore will stabilize the uptick in crude/gas prices.

disclaimer: I do have vested interest in butane, tankers, and veloro.

Only a few months ago crude was negative, so 75 in 2-3 years is stabilizing.
 
I think there may be a big push to make oil overpriced to support increased green energy, fuel gas going back to $4.00+ a gallon.

They may even wish/try to put a sin tax on real meat to get rid of farting cows and pigs.
 
World wide mid term thinking oil is still a growth industry, even US market is going to expand as the economy picks up. 10 year 20 year? Lot of elections between then and now.

Most of the machine shop related flux is related to supply and demand and crude prices rather than gov't policy.
 
I think there may be a big push to make oil overpriced to support increased green energy, fuel gas going back to $4.00 a gallon.

They may even wish/try to put a sin tax on real meat to get rid of farting cows and pigs.

It was $4.50 around here last time, and at the start of Obammy's reign, he mentioned he "wanted to see $7-$8
a gallon, much like the EU".
So yes, there will be much government intervention to drive the prices up.
 
World wide mid term thinking oil is still a growth industry, even US market is going to expand as the economy picks up. 10 year 20 year? Lot of elections between then and now.

Most of the machine shop related flux is related to supply and demand and crude prices rather than gov't policy.


Agree on all points.
But...
My assessments are based on decades long trends.
My observation here is that these results in the states will influence those trends but certainly not overwhelm the metrics which have formed them.
 
It was $4.50 around here last time, and at the start of Obammy's reign, he mentioned he "wanted to see $7-$8
a gallon, much like the EU".
So yes, there will be much government intervention to drive the prices up.
High crude prices are good for the industry

So your lie about Obama on gas prices is not particularly relevant


Yeah, he never said it


Only right wing bobble heads did

Oh, and when demand rises, from lack of energy efficiency and driving 15 mpg SUVs what happens to prices?

Unless laws of supply and demand no longer apply on your planet
 
It all depends. I don't think any rational person truly believes we can eliminate oil and gas in the near future, so likely they will slow walk "green energy".

I expect there will be a lot of talk, and some showy "green" projects but no wholesale replacement.

Think about it. Most of our supplies, including food, are transported by truck and railroad, both using diesel fuel. The widespread infrastructure for alternatives is just not there, and would take years to develop even with massive funding.

What may happen is a large reduction in our energy independence through increased restrictions on drilling etc. that would resume our dependence on energy imports.
 
It all depends. I don't think any rational person truly believes we can eliminate oil and gas in the near future, so likely they will slow walk "green energy".

I expect there will be a lot of talk, and some showy "green" projects but no wholesale replacement.

Think about it. Most of our supplies, including food, are transported by truck and railroad, both using diesel fuel. The widespread infrastructure for alternatives is just not there, and would take years to develop even with massive funding.

What may happen is a large reduction in our energy independence through increased restrictions on drilling etc. that would resume our dependence on energy imports.

Say what ?

Naw, that could never Happen....Again.
 
It all depends. I don't think any rational person truly believes we can eliminate oil and gas in the near future, so likely they will slow walk "green energy".

I expect there will be a lot of talk, and some showy "green" projects but no wholesale replacement.

Most of your greenies aren't rational, they have complaints against all kinds of energy generation. Wind farms kill birds, building solar farms disturb animal and plant habitats, hydro plants change the down stream river environment, blah,blah,blah,blah. Of course none of them live in unheated caves and eat cold food, and transport themselves with human power. Most of them follow the Al Gore model of hypocrisy, do as I say not as I do.
 
Cheap oil does not fit their agenda.......they will do whatever is neccesary to get it cost prohibitive to use.
All you have to do is listen....and believe them when they discuss their priorities
 
It all depends. I don't think any rational person truly believes we can eliminate oil and gas in the near future, so likely they will slow walk "green energy".

You see, you make up a policy and then argue against it. Pretty easy when you are dfining boths sides of an argument

How about we take, for instance, reality

What is happening in the real world?

20 gigawatts of wind power were added in 2020

Led by Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa and Kansas

Communist states all

Tesla sold half a million cars, without Federal subsidies

60 gigawatts of installed PV solar is installed in the US, 3.6 of which was installed in the first quarter of 2020

So, out in the real world, 'green energy' is rolling along, infrastructure is being built


Which is good for consumers as it will drive down the price of petroleum long term, but bad for industry which relies on high prices to make extraction of low quality petroleum profitable

You want to continue arguing like it is 1978, fine.

The world continues to disagree.
 
Totally irrelevant nonsense!

"In 2019, about 63% of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation was produced from fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and petroleum), about 20% was from nuclear energy, and about 17% was from renewable energy sources."

Source: Electricity generation, capacity, and sales in the United States - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

And contrary to enviro-fantasies, solar and wind are still intermittent sources and must be backed up by more reliable generation capacity.

This quote is from the same government document.

"Intermittent renewable resource generators powered by wind and solar energy that generate electricity only when these resources are available (i.e., when it's windy or sunny). When these generators are operating, they tend to reduce the amount of electricity required from other generators to supply the electric power grid."

When they are operating they electricity required from other sources, but they don't eliminate those sources.

Tesla is selling passenger cars, not heavy haul trucks and locomotives. Those still run on diesel fuel, as do bulldozers, loaders, and other heavy construction equipment.

Large vessels still run on oil, as do commercial aircraft.



You see, you make up a policy and then argue against it. Pretty easy when you are dfining boths sides of an argument

How about we take, for instance, reality

What is happening in the real world?

20 gigawatts of wind power were added in 2020

Led by Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa and Kansas

Communist states all

Tesla sold half a million cars, without Federal subsidies

60 gigawatts of installed PV solar is installed in the US, 3.6 of which was installed in the first quarter of 2020

So, out in the real world, 'green energy' is rolling along, infrastructure is being built


Which is good for consumers as it will drive down the price of petroleum long term, but bad for industry which relies on high prices to make extraction of low quality petroleum profitable

You want to continue arguing like it is 1978, fine.

The world continues to disagree.
 
Scott, a bunch of crap

You keep arguing with 1974, get past it

You keep pretending that you are going to wake up in the morning with all electric cars and all wind power and it will be a nightmare

Not happening.

Tomorrow electricity will be slightly more renewable than yesterday, and next week, and next year.

The grid will adapt, storage facilities are being built right now


You keep arguing against reality

No one is saying zero fossil fuels now
There are 270 million vehicles in the road right now, they will not disappear any time soon

IF we need gas power plants for backup, so what?

When we get to the point of talking about shutting down that last fossil fueled power plant, how is that a bad thing?

Personally I don't ever see that happening, as the laws of supply and demand will say that natural gas prices will drop as demand drops

Oklahoma generated 35 percent of its electricity with wind in 2019, I don't recall any news stories of widespread blackouts
 
Men mostly argue from what they see right in front of them.
We are all captive in a single moment in a long story of technological advancement.
We won't run out of residual organic deposits- we will just stop using them.

Their replacements will simply be better and it will be a sort of silly anachronism to burn crude for transportation or energy.
Things move along after all and they are moving along a faster clip more so now than ever.

Stone Age, bronze, iron and the rest of them.
The petroleum age will pass- sooner than most probably recognize.

Good riddance.
 
Scott, a bunch of crap

You keep arguing with 1974, get past it

You keep pretending that you are going to wake up in the morning with all electric cars and all wind power and it will be a nightmare

Not happening.

Tomorrow electricity will be slightly more renewable than yesterday, and next week, and next year.

The grid will adapt, storage facilities are being built right now


You keep arguing against reality

No one is saying zero fossil fuels now
There are 270 million vehicles in the road right now, they will not disappear any time soon

IF we need gas power plants for backup, so what?

When we get to the point of talking about shutting down that last fossil fueled power plant, how is that a bad thing?

Personally I don't ever see that happening, as the laws of supply and demand will say that natural gas prices will drop as demand drops

Oklahoma generated 35 percent of its electricity with wind in 2019, I don't recall any news stories of widespread blackouts

Your assuming "petroleum" is only used as fuel & loob.

so when you reduce drilling, say bye-bye to all the other things that petroleum
makes.

Plastics.

Oooh how you can make all those I-phones ?

Ouch man.
 
Just from counting at stoplights, looks like 20% electric cars in Shanghai already. Maybe more ... and growing every year. Rover, Porsche, BMW, Ford, everybody. Lots of Teslas ... Model 3 sure has a shitty interior. If they upgraded that they could sell a lot more. And that teevee screen thing makes me gag, but maybe kids like it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.








 
Back
Top