PeteM
Diamond
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2002
- Location
- West Coast, USA
So, the DOW just lost all the gains of the past year. A year in which we apparently committed to borrowing a trillion or so from those willing to buy our bonds (Saudis, Chinese, etc.) primarily to give big financial players a tax holiday. It was/is a massive stimulus to an economy that had already been improving for the past eight or so years. Ten months later, at least for the past few days, we're headed in the wrong direction. So far most of the money has gone into pockets rather than investment in things like manufacturing or R&D.
I realize none of us know what the next year or two holds, but I'd appreciate hearing the sentiments of those who are invested in the US markets.
Seems to me the "pros" for continued growth might include:
- Pretty much full employment, best in many years
- As screwed up as we are, the rest of the world is worse
- We're still a fairly innovative country
- Could be we'll get some jobs back, or at least not lose so many of them
- Our Treasury Dept. is predicting strong growth for the next 4-5 years
Seems to me the "cons" for another recession somewhat sooner than later might include:
- We seem to do this every ten years or so, with few lessons learned
- "Full employment" increasingly means working two part-time jobs with no benefits, or independent contracting
- Our local, state, and especially national debt is growing even in the best of times
- More money is going into things like nukes; less into things like productive infrastructure
- Uncertainty and rancor over tariffs and trade agreements - with some supply chains screwed up
- Weakening of the dollar and US in global financial leadership
- No meaningful reform in terms of financial abuses
- Some backlash toward tech firms (which until recently fueled growth) like Facebook, Google, Amazon
- Still spending too much, covering too little in terms of health care for an aging population
- The culture of ripping off folks prior to 2008 now seems on the rise, after a sort of decline
- General instability in the world economy; some of which we're contributing to
- Things like the recent Economist cover story predicting recession sooner than later
Thoughts? Who's bullish? Bearish? Cautiously anticipating we'll ride it out for the next few years?
I realize none of us know what the next year or two holds, but I'd appreciate hearing the sentiments of those who are invested in the US markets.
Seems to me the "pros" for continued growth might include:
- Pretty much full employment, best in many years
- As screwed up as we are, the rest of the world is worse
- We're still a fairly innovative country
- Could be we'll get some jobs back, or at least not lose so many of them
- Our Treasury Dept. is predicting strong growth for the next 4-5 years
Seems to me the "cons" for another recession somewhat sooner than later might include:
- We seem to do this every ten years or so, with few lessons learned
- "Full employment" increasingly means working two part-time jobs with no benefits, or independent contracting
- Our local, state, and especially national debt is growing even in the best of times
- More money is going into things like nukes; less into things like productive infrastructure
- Uncertainty and rancor over tariffs and trade agreements - with some supply chains screwed up
- Weakening of the dollar and US in global financial leadership
- No meaningful reform in terms of financial abuses
- Some backlash toward tech firms (which until recently fueled growth) like Facebook, Google, Amazon
- Still spending too much, covering too little in terms of health care for an aging population
- The culture of ripping off folks prior to 2008 now seems on the rise, after a sort of decline
- General instability in the world economy; some of which we're contributing to
- Things like the recent Economist cover story predicting recession sooner than later
Thoughts? Who's bullish? Bearish? Cautiously anticipating we'll ride it out for the next few years?