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OT - the future of work?

PeteM

Diamond
Joined
Jan 15, 2002
Location
West Coast, USA
Came across an article on the future of work this morning.

The thrust is that first world nations have been doing a forced seven month experiment on working remotely -- and that experience is likely to change work patterns in the future.

Many of the expert responses are self-serving -- if someone specializes it helping knowledge workers work remotely then no surprise they expect to see more of it. Nevertheless, something like 40% of jobs are now being done at least partly remotely and around 70% of workers say they'd like to see some mix of centralized/remote work continue.

The claimed "pros" of remote work are that it frees up cities, reduces office costs and congestion, eliminates many long commutes, actually improves productivity and job satisfaction according to some, and, of course, helps deal with the pandemic.

The "cons" of remote work are that face-to-face communications are more effective, they build teamwork and trust within a company, and a whole bunch of jobs simply have to be done at a central locations. You can't pick a field of strawberries from home (well, OK, if it's your strawberry patch) and you can't break up an auto-assembly line into home-garage-sized bits.

So, the question is -- how do PM members think this will affect manufacturing? Maybe agriculture and distribution as well, since getting fed is likely job #1.

Many here - the small shops with up to two or three employees - are already pretty much in this mode. They receive models electronically, communicate remotely, make parts -- often on CNC machines -- and ship them out. More cost-effective technologies (from 3D printing to automated plasma cutting and welding robots) augment this.

Some of our largest companies are so highly automated (and likely to get even more highly automated) that near-lights-out operations are possible. "Touch" labor is shrinking in many industries. The designers, engineers, etc. can work remotely. Much of the production is automated. A relatively few techs (compared to say 1950's automation) need to be on assembly lines.

Could be that leaves a whole bunch of medium sized manufacturing companies stuck between a rock and hard place. They may be too small to easily automate and to big to fly under the radar. They already bear a disproportionate burden in this country (compared to, say, a Germany) for health care costs, regulatory compliance, and overheads (accounting, HR, taxes, lawyers, patent attorneys/trolls etc.) as a percent their income.

What about your company? Are you somehow adapting - and turning some of this into a positive? Waiting things out until even better treatments (mortality already way down) and a vaccine? Or simply not coping??

Be nice if we could keep this on topic -- how manufacturing (and perhaps other) work might change over the next few years.

The article: Coronavirus: How the world of work may change forever - BBC Worklife
 
I'd like to watch a machinist work remotely. :dopeslap:



I really don't understand the OP. :codger:

If I can work remotely and it makes sense, I'm willing to do so.

If it doesn't make sense, I work on-site.

There's no other alternative but welfare.

So what's your question?
 
. . . So what's your question?

Question is, how is your company responding? I'd assume it's something beyond "more time to reply to posts on PM."

If a truly small business - business as usual (assuming your customer is still up and running)? Some have said their books are, once again, full.

If a truly large business - investing in still more automation? Re-jiggering supply chains? FWIW, some of the largest multi-billion dollar industries I've seen adapt might be the NFL, the NBA, a European soccer. Far from ideal, but open for business. US auto industry also appears to be back (with any changes?): U.S. Car Business Vrooms Back From Pandemic Nadir - WSJ

If a mid-sized manufacturing business, same question.

Months ago we had a thread about how even auto assembly lines might do testing, change the workflow a bit, and keep on near full capacity. No one was much interested in that topic, except maybe those auto companies. It does seem that foreign auto makers (Japanese, Germans, Chinese) are investing in plants and automation here. In commercial aviation, Boeing is cutting its long-term outlook. Meanwhile, Chinese airlines and aircraft industry seems to be growing.

I gather you're not interested in this one as well?

Seems to me we've got at least several more months until a vaccine - with many countries just now re-instating lockdowns. Also seems that a lot of jobs are going to morph a bit, even after we've back to normal. Not just from the pandemic, but such things as automated trucks, maybe a smaller hospitality/tourism industry and people (and countries) scrambling for jobs, China a lot less welcome as part of our supply chain, cheap money available to invest in automation, etc.

There are plenty of alternatives for every company (and our nation) to remain competitive besides welfare. Neither the horseless carriage nor the Spanish Flu put the world out of work -- but both surely changed the nature of that work
 
The nature of work has been changing for over a hundred years. It will change more in the future. A huge percentage of jobs can not be done remotely and even many of those that can are better done in person. A buddy who works remotely for most of the week says the one day he goes in is spent mostly cleaning up the mess caused by this "distance" foolishness.

Technology and automation always change how we work and most likely much of this Corona Culture nonsense will eventually go away while the technology changes will continue to shape the workplace.

As I've said before, eventually even the slowest catch on.
 
I'd like to watch a machinist work remotely. :dopeslap:



I really don't understand the OP. :codger:

If I can work remotely and it makes sense, I'm willing to do so.

If it doesn't make sense, I work on-site.

There's no other alternative but welfare.

So what's your question?

It's been proven before...the OP is nothing but a TROLL ….
 
If everyone works remote then there will not be any reason drive anywhere. The auto mechanics, tire and brake shops, etc, etc, even tow truck drivers will no longer be needed. As we saw in the very beginning of lockdown the smog levels go way down when no cars are moving. Greenies will latch onto this and say it is "not essential" for you to drive anywhere since you work from your home. food will be delivered by amazon and if you need a vacation you can walk to the recreation area in your neighborhood. Car makers cut way back, oil industry cut way back.....Way less machinists needed since no one will "need" anything since it will be discouraged to actually do anything deemed non essential- just do it for the health of the planet...
 
Years ago we were pushing towards a "paperless" factory. Some made it work, but the positions I've held haven't by any means made the transition. I could see those that have made it work, could have nearly all of their administration and basic engineering, even programming, possible from home. The only people that would need to be on-site would be the ones that make product move. Machinists, inspectors, shipping/receiving, etc. Given the resistance to paperless, I think that most manufacturing (especially smaller businesses) will be doing business as usual. I don't have much to say about countries other than US, because I don't brush up against their cultures.
 
It should be obvious to anyone that the only jobs that can be done remotely would be regarding things that can be written down using a keyboard. That eliminates machining.


As said in post #1, a bit of distancing doesn't eliminate machining for thousands of small shops or for heavily automated near-lights-out shops. And even labor intensive auto assembly lines are now up and running - but perhaps with more automation to come.

Pretty sure it was you who just inquired, as a one man band, about getting into a gun parts manufacturing business. One assumes a machine tool might be involved. If a whole lot of people are similarly planning to set up shop, that would be a a shift. Not sure, though, who's going to buy or aggregate the output?

As beege notes, the "paperless factory" idea has been around for ages. GE bought half of one of our companies decades ago and was all over that. Turns out it was a lot harder than their PR people imagined -- or their counterparts at Siemens. But the tech is changing.
 
Question is, how is your company responding? I'd assume it's something beyond "more time to reply to posts on PM."

If a truly small business - business as usual (assuming your customer is still up and running)? Some have said their books are, once again, full.

If a truly large business - investing in still more automation? Re-jiggering supply chains? FWIW, some of the largest multi-billion dollar industries I've seen adapt might be the NFL, the NBA, a European soccer. Far from ideal, but open for business. US auto industry also appears to be back (with any changes?): U.S. Car Business Vrooms Back From Pandemic Nadir - WSJ

If a mid-sized manufacturing business, same question.

Months ago we had a thread about how even auto assembly lines might do testing, change the workflow a bit, and keep on near full capacity. No one was much interested in that topic, except maybe those auto companies. It does seem that foreign auto makers (Japanese, Germans, Chinese) are investing in plants and automation here. In commercial aviation, Boeing is cutting its long-term outlook. Meanwhile, Chinese airlines and aircraft industry seems to be growing.

I gather you're not interested in this one as well?

Seems to me we've got at least several more months until a vaccine - with many countries just now re-instating lockdowns. Also seems that a lot of jobs are going to morph a bit, even after we've back to normal. Not just from the pandemic, but such things as automated trucks, maybe a smaller hospitality/tourism industry and people (and countries) scrambling for jobs, China a lot less welcome as part of our supply chain, cheap money available to invest in automation, etc.

There are plenty of alternatives for every company (and our nation) to remain competitive besides welfare. Neither the horseless carriage nor the Spanish Flu put the world out of work -- but both surely changed the nature of that work

My company allowed remote work for all office employees. They then cut it to only a few days a week...a month or so ago they shut working from home down altogether.

That was maybe 60 or 70 employees...the other 800 or so came to work as usual.
 
Bottom line, you have three options:

1) Work as normal.

2) Work from home.

3) Welfare.


I know #3 looks more appealing to the ones that want to keep the country locked down.

The unfair part is that the people who aren't afraid to go back to work have to pay for the lazy lumps that "are afraid".

:ill:


NJ was hit pretty hard for a while. Any lessons learned or changes out of all this? If your company is in the medical field, maybe back to business as normal?


Don't you realize that most of us have gone back to work, medical or not? :nutter:

I know the "failing economy" is your strong point, but you've overplayed that card eons ago.
 
Current methods are working as well as they can where they can.

When it is mentioned that we have PPE then that is used as is remote work when that is possible. The reality is that the world can not just stop and there are risks that must be faced.

Managers do not like most employees working remotely unless there are good ways to measure output. Management will feel that closer exposure and monitoring by management is the way.

In other words most of this remote work will eventually largely revert back. The wise ones who can make it work even then will be ahead of the game in competition if they have accurate means of the measurements of performance.

More counterproductive moves are sending work overseas. Still work can be sent to other cities, other companies, to restructured safer work places, and even other states or countries which we have trade agreements with. If keeping people employed is a goal then automation does that goal no good. Nor does giving work to another shop leaving employees unemployed.

During the Spanish Flu all precautions aside there comes a time you do your best to be as safe as possible and risk opening up and getting work rolling again.
 
Bottom line, you have three options:

1) Work as normal.

2) Work from home.

3) Welfare.

. . .

Plenty of other options:

1) As a result of disrupted supply chains, see more work go to small and more local companies. Not just work from a garage with a Haas machine or two out back.

2) See large companies take some of the cheap money and automate more jobs. Companies like Motion Guru's might do well. Traditional button pushers even less in demand.

3) Possibly disruptive intermediaries. Manufacturing.com is a joke but plenty of other industries have been disrupted by high tech companies acting as an intermediary between small-scale suppliers and customers. The whole everyone-building-ventilators thing was a bad joke, but it illustrated how quickly production could be ramped once there was demand.

4) Manufacturing companies promoting their resilience to get new business. Maybe fewer contracts won by being .1 cents a piece cheaper and 3000 miles away. Single sourcing might save pennies, but if it's to a Takata in air bags . . .?

5) Possibly a big shift in supply chains, though China still seems to be keeping and growing what it has.

6) A shift in the auto industry at all tiers of its suppliers from fossil fuels to electric -- as even Ford and GM predict.

7) Who knows what for commercial aerospace?

8) An uptick in a fix-it mentality in many industries (ag, construction?) , rather than a throw it away and buy new?

9) Amazon, the pioneer in cloud computing, enabled a company like Zoom go from a tiny upstart to large scale in months. Same company (Amazon) just showed up in my neighborhood yesterday with a UPS-like vehicle. Last major change in distribution was the Interstate Highway system - which let manufacturers move most anywhere there was an Interstate. Distribution is surely going to change -- add in automated trucks, new pick up and drop points, etc.

10) Lots of spare parts don't have to be carried in inventory anymore - just an STL file downloaded and printed on a suitably-capable device.

11) This guy ( The moonshot that missed | The Verge ) told me years ago 90% of us would soon be living in cities. Went that way for a while. But now many see rural areas (once digitally connected) having a resurgence. Watch the people streaming out of Paris ahead of a lockdown, and there's some sense cities are getting a bit less attractive for the best and brightest of our young to live, work, hook up. Could be small well-run cities and their suburbs will prosper.

12) Could be large scale industrial agriculture is set for a change? Not our field, but if it does shift so will agricultural equipment needs.

Sure - everyone has to go back to work. Question is, if you were in the horse and carriage business - would it still be making buggy whips? Or if you built everything from 2D drawings, would that still be your ticket for the future? For that matter, more and more parts aren't being made by splitting chips these days; but by net shape manufacturing processes.
 
The OP was here three plus years before you showed up, voluminously pissing on topics and chasing away newcomers. Good news, Digger, is you occasionally add some value.

Mostly, he adds negative value, frankly.

I think the last (possibly only) original idea he had was in 1951 and it's all been downhill since then. It's not in the least surprising that he doesn't like discussing anything more modern.

We've seen the elimination of entire classes of workforce in my lifetime and I've no reason to think this won't continue. Remote program loading & operation of machine tools is pretty straightforward with CNC and networking. Problem there is loading the correct material, fixturing and tooling into the machine so a smart robot or GP human being would be needed for that.

Couple of my clients (Govt medical stuff) are reluctantly considering opening ports in their firewalls to allow remote access so people like me don't have to come on site to install updates etc. It's never been a technical problem, just a risk management/political one.

No real ideas what's going to change but it's going to be an interesting ride.

PDW
 
Machinist cant work remotely?.....Can a straddle lift container crane be operated remotely by an operator sitting in an offsite office complex?Yes.Can a 300ton mine dump truck in Western Australia be driven by someone on a computer in India?...Yes..Can a 120 ton Cat dozer stockpiling coal inCentral Queensland be operated by someone sitting at a computer terminal in Brisbane?..Yes.....So ,can a CNC machine be operated remotely ?..Yes.
 
NJ was hit pretty hard for a while. Any lessons learned or changes in work processes or customers out of all this? If your company is in the medical field (don't recall), maybe back to business as normal?

Aerospace engine combustor stage blade, shroud, fuel nozzle, and vane castings. We have to wear gloves and masks whenever on the property, all 4 buildings have temperature scan cameras on all entry doors. We have had multiple cases but transmission seems to be from outside the plant, no breakouts in any of the work cells. I carry a bottle of alcohol liquid sanitizer when I go on the floor and spray the molds and touch areas of the machine before I start working on stuff. Just a little added safety.

If we travel to or have guests at home that come from the flagged states we have to quarantine for 7 days upon returning or the guests leaving.
 
Machinist cant work remotely?......

Good points, John.

This guy (Dick Morley) was a friend and one of the guys who started us on the path to automation. Must have been two decades ago when he demo'd his Java-controlled backhoe -- half the country away from his New Hampshire farm. Clunky (especially the slow and low-res video link) - but it worked.

Remembering a Manufacturing Legend, Dick Morley
 








 
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