PeteM
Diamond
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2002
- Location
- West Coast, USA
We've been chasing SARS-CoV-2 like Keystone Kops for a few months now. First it was no cases, 1 case and handled, 15 and down to zero soon, etc. One thought has been "it's just the flue" and that we should only start worrying when it got beyond 80,000 deaths (around the worst recent case for the seasonal flu).
Seems it's time to worry -- and just as we're opening up.
Perhaps a hopeful best case is that we're around halfway through (assuming still some distancing, and no 2nd and 3rd waves, but no breakthroughs). Better case is some breakthroughs in tracking, treatment, or a vaccine. Worse case is new cases spike as we open up. If we're at the peak, then usual case would be that we see around another 80,000 deaths on the backside.
Main reason for this thread is that we're beginning to open up again, without quite yet really having a handle on this. This link makes some assumptions about things like the response to viral load and immunity; but it seems credible to me and worth understanding for anyone who's deciding how to open up their life and business to some semblance of normal. It's worth a read IMO:
The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them
A few notes on this. One is that we really don't yet know (at least as far as I know) the virus dose - response relationship. The author seems to be making an educated guess.
Second, we don't know what level of immunity having the virus and recovering confers. In some seasonal flu cases, it's just a few months. For others, it's two or three years. For others, it's lifetime. We don't know yet, as people begin to get tested for antibodies and get back to work. It also appears the virus is mutating, perhaps to a more contagious but less lethal form??
Third is that a friend who had formerly done research on contamination from breathing in clean room facilities for IBM said the the report (linked above) greatly underestimates the number of particles exhaled in normal speech.
In any case it's a somewhat fact-based report that might be useful to many here.
Seems it's time to worry -- and just as we're opening up.
Perhaps a hopeful best case is that we're around halfway through (assuming still some distancing, and no 2nd and 3rd waves, but no breakthroughs). Better case is some breakthroughs in tracking, treatment, or a vaccine. Worse case is new cases spike as we open up. If we're at the peak, then usual case would be that we see around another 80,000 deaths on the backside.
Main reason for this thread is that we're beginning to open up again, without quite yet really having a handle on this. This link makes some assumptions about things like the response to viral load and immunity; but it seems credible to me and worth understanding for anyone who's deciding how to open up their life and business to some semblance of normal. It's worth a read IMO:
The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them
A few notes on this. One is that we really don't yet know (at least as far as I know) the virus dose - response relationship. The author seems to be making an educated guess.
Second, we don't know what level of immunity having the virus and recovering confers. In some seasonal flu cases, it's just a few months. For others, it's two or three years. For others, it's lifetime. We don't know yet, as people begin to get tested for antibodies and get back to work. It also appears the virus is mutating, perhaps to a more contagious but less lethal form??
Third is that a friend who had formerly done research on contamination from breathing in clean room facilities for IBM said the the report (linked above) greatly underestimates the number of particles exhaled in normal speech.
In any case it's a somewhat fact-based report that might be useful to many here.