OT - opening up as best we can. AKA - is it still just the seasonal flu?
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    Default OT - opening up as best we can. AKA - is it still just the seasonal flu?

    We've been chasing SARS-CoV-2 like Keystone Kops for a few months now. First it was no cases, 1 case and handled, 15 and down to zero soon, etc. One thought has been "it's just the flue" and that we should only start worrying when it got beyond 80,000 deaths (around the worst recent case for the seasonal flu).

    Seems it's time to worry -- and just as we're opening up.

    Perhaps a hopeful best case is that we're around halfway through (assuming still some distancing, and no 2nd and 3rd waves, but no breakthroughs). Better case is some breakthroughs in tracking, treatment, or a vaccine. Worse case is new cases spike as we open up. If we're at the peak, then usual case would be that we see around another 80,000 deaths on the backside.

    Main reason for this thread is that we're beginning to open up again, without quite yet really having a handle on this. This link makes some assumptions about things like the response to viral load and immunity; but it seems credible to me and worth understanding for anyone who's deciding how to open up their life and business to some semblance of normal. It's worth a read IMO:

    The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

    A few notes on this. One is that we really don't yet know (at least as far as I know) the virus dose - response relationship. The author seems to be making an educated guess.

    Second, we don't know what level of immunity having the virus and recovering confers. In some seasonal flu cases, it's just a few months. For others, it's two or three years. For others, it's lifetime. We don't know yet, as people begin to get tested for antibodies and get back to work. It also appears the virus is mutating, perhaps to a more contagious but less lethal form??

    Third is that a friend who had formerly done research on contamination from breathing in clean room facilities for IBM said the the report (linked above) greatly underestimates the number of particles exhaled in normal speech.

    In any case it's a somewhat fact-based report that might be useful to many here.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails fludeaths.jpg  

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    Hi Pete,
    Similar threads have been removed without warning, you may want to keep an active copy if you want an archive of what you (and others) have written.

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    We might finally get a SENSIBLE thread out of the congenital whiners & blame-gamers?

    Off to a great start:

    This message is hidden because PeteM is on your ignore list.

    This message is hidden because Milland is on your ignore list.

    My post prolly looks the same to "the usual suspects"!

    "Keep up the good wank!"

    ....er "whine"

    Sure as God made little white nematodes it won't have SQRT-FA to do with "work", will it?

    Guess yah'd have to know parasites?


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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    Hi Pete,
    Similar threads have been removed . ..
    No matter, MIlland. It's just a useful link - best summary on transmission and steps to avoid it I've seen so far.

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    An interesting "tid bit".

    The 1968-69 Asian flu took over 100.000 lives in North America, most over the age of 65. More than a million lives around the world.
    (It also came in several waves)

    That was also the time when Woodstock took place.

    Leave it to ".........." to really screw up the great festival of life....

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    I wash my hands ,wear gloves (as I did for work),sometimes a mask ,and dont get seasonal flu either ......However my pity goes out for those stuck in old folks homes (,many nowdays from age 65 by choice),with typhoid Mary working in the kitchen...What can they do but wait and hope ..

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    Not the normal flu.
    Due to efforts this certainly not a bell-curve anymore.
    The tail a long end out. This can be seem in just about any infection graph even without a 2nd wave.
    Flattened the curve and all great, now we just have 1 to 2 years to go.
    Giving some opening up and a bump that must happen I'm not seeing normal Christmas parties. That thought just plain not happy.
    It is a time for many to consider that this is a 2 year deal and somethings will never be the same.
    This once in a hundred year event has changed things and our lives for decades.
    Much easier to instill fear than to remove it.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Not the normal flu.
    Due to efforts this certainly not a bell-curve anymore.
    The tail a long end out. This can be seem in just about any infection graph even without a 2nd wave.
    Flattened the curve and all great, now we just have 1 to 2 years to go.
    Giving some opening up and a bump that must happen I'm not seeing normal Christmas parties. That thought just plain not happy.
    It is a time for many to consider that this is a 2 year deal and somethings will never be the same.
    This once in a hundred year event has changed things and our lives for decades.
    Much easier to instill fear than to remove it.
    Bob
    We can look to Sweden to calm our fears. Mortality on the decline... much like elsewhere.

    Protect the vulnerable! That will give us all something worth while to attend to.Attachment 288196

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    We can look to Sweden to calm our fears. . . .

    Might be a bit premature to chill, Cal, until we see the backside of these mortality rates (below).

    Best case, extrapolating from their mortality rates, we'd have around 160,000 dead, and maybe 160,000 to go? All of which is why it might make sense for individuals to get the best info they can to understand how this virus is transmitted -- and how to avoid catching it until we have better treatment protocols.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails sweden_mortality.jpg  

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    We can look to Sweden to calm our fears.
    Seriously? Sweden is noteworthy for how poorly they are doing compared to their neighbors right now.

    My crystal ball isn't any better than anyone else's, but unless we get ten concatenated scientific miracles, we won't have 1) effective pallative treatment for severe cases, 2) a vaccine, or 3) herd immunity in the general population, until 2022 or 2023. So there are going to be waves of this thing circling the globe for quite some time.

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    To all the naysayers and sceptics.

    I hope you enjoy watching your loved ones die through not being able to breathe, because their lungs are full of fluid and dead cells etc etc

    Death by Covid 19 has been likened to water boarding.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    To all the naysayers and sceptics.

    I hope you enjoy watching your loved ones die through not being able to breathe, because their lungs are full of fluid and dead cells etc etc

    Death by Covid 19 has been likened to water boarding.
    It's a horrible way to go. If someone is truly past the point of recovery, full sedation until cessation is the only humane option.

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    What I don't understand is all the drastic measures being taken and it hasn't stemmed the tide much. I think part of it is a lot of the people wearing gloves and masks do not know how to use them properly and it is giving them a sense of security they should not have. Like the idiot who ate from a bag of cookies he just purchased with the same gloved hand he just handled money with. Everybody I know was taught money is dirty when they are a little kid, also to always wash your hands before eating. I have changed some habits, but definitely am not going to where a mask. I shop at the non crowded country stores and mostly stay out of chain grocery stores. Mostly because I can't stand the panicked masses and the way they behave.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    An interesting "tid bit".

    The 1968-69 Asian flu took over 100.000 lives in North America, most over the age of 65. More than a million lives around the world.
    (It also came in several waves)

    That was also the time when Woodstock took place.

    Leave it to ".........." to really screw up the great festival of life....
    Gee a few posts in and you are still lying


    in a year and a half

    repeat, a year and a half, estimated 100k died

    we just lost 80k in 7 weeks


    And again, thanks for admitting that estimated deaths are accurate

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    What I don't understand is all the drastic measures being taken and it hasn't stemmed the tide much. I think part of it is a lot of the people wearing gloves and masks do not know how to use them properly and it is giving them a sense of security they should not have. Like the idiot who ate from a bag of cookies he just purchased with the same gloved hand he just handled money with. Everybody I know was taught money is dirty when they are a little kid, also to always wash your hands before eating. I have changed some habits, but definitely am not going to where a mask. I shop at the non crowded country stores and mostly stay out of chain grocery stores. Mostly because I can't stand the panicked masses and the way they behave.
    'hasn't stemmed the tide much'


    compared to what?


    ridiculous

    have a political point of view, but pretending that staying at home does not reduce your chances of catching disease is silly

    And if you are out buying unwrapped cookies, well, I dunno.....

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    Hasn't stemmed the tide? NYC has been pretty successful I'd say. The methods work, you just gotta do 'em.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    What I don't understand is all the drastic measures being taken and it hasn't stemmed the tide much. . ..
    One of my takeaways from the article above - and why I bothered to post it - is because if the article is correct we didn't fully understand the modes of transmission at the start.

    Early on, we were told it was mostly coughs and droplets on surfaces, then picking up the virus and touching hands to nose, mouth, and eyes. And that the virus-laden droplets were so large they'd almost all fall within 6'. That was based on research with some earlier viruses. Call that theory A.

    What the researcher, above, is suggesting is that most transmission is from being in airborne contact, for long periods of time, without effective PPE - and backs it with examples and research. Including from asymptomatic family members and co-workers. Call that theory B.

    I have no idea to what extent theories A and B predominate. Theory B is making some assumptions about viral load, for example. But it seems credible to me as a significant factor. If so, it should change how individuals and companies go about their business. A good example might be yesterday's news reports of how Honda modified some of its minivans to separate the airflows from the driver and the passengers (potentially with the virus) in the back. If a driver had previously wiped everything down between passengers and never touched hands to face -- likely not effective per theory B.

    A personal example. Three retired friends and I have continued to play tennis throughout this. We're all cautious, wear masks to the courts, sanitize hands to begin and after, fresh can of balls etc. Don't play at all close to one another. So far so, good, IMO. But then we continued the tradition of grabbing a beer after - about 8' apart - and catching up. Everything wiped down - because of that don't touch surfaces to face thing. A while back we started to open the door to get some fresh air. Based on the report, that should be outside rather than inside. Same beer, same friendly discussion, but different precautions.

    Someone opening up a business or getting back to other activities with more people involved might be considering similar modifications to prevent prolonged aerosol contact. Things like social distancing, accurate testing and quarantine, and limiting crowd size to limit the chances of encountering someone with virus within a space work to flatten the curve and buy time for better treatments for both A & B. But, ready or not, we're beginning to launch into a new regime -- with little apparent understanding or guidance at the top.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    It's a horrible way to go. If someone is truly past the point of recovery, full sedation until cessation is the only humane option.
    That is assuming that such medical care will be available, ...and not completely overrun by an out of control virus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    To all the naysayers and sceptics.

    I hope you enjoy watching your loved ones die through not being able to breathe, because their lungs are full of fluid and dead cells etc etc

    Death by Covid 19 has been likened to water boarding.
    Can you tell us how these deaths were different?
    CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

    My understanding is that all fatal Influenza like illness ( ILI/I&P) result in similar end.

    Perhaps passing quietly in ones sleep is just not an option.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sfriedberg View Post
    Seriously? Sweden is noteworthy for how poorly they are doing compared to their neighbors right now.

    My crystal ball isn't any better than anyone else's, but unless we get ten concatenated scientific miracles, we won't have 1) effective pallative treatment for severe cases, 2) a vaccine, or 3) herd immunity in the general population, until 2022 or 2023. So there are going to be waves of this thing circling the globe for quite some time.
    If the only metric is lives lost over several months due to a single illness, Sweden does not stand out,

    However, they may have faired much better with maintenance of social trust and well being. Certainly economic stability is in their favor.

    Now, the "shut down" cultures will be forever afraid of one another. Fear of your tennis partner, children afraid of their grandparents.

    Suicide, substance abuse, domestic violence.

    Difficult measuring sticks. But all too real.

    Suicide statistics | AFSP These numbers will likely not be better this year.....

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