OT - opening up as best we can. AKA - is it still just the seasonal flu? - Page 160
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  1. #3181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Have we been chasing a chimera for months, living in fear and turning our lives upside down ....
    You should be used to that, you've been doing it for the past forty years or so, at least ...

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  3. #3182
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    So what you are saying is there are actually many more cases in Europe than have been reported. The numbers reflect only the most serious cases. If they tested at the rate the US tested, it would not be 1.5 million cases in Europe, it would be closer to 4 million (to make the CFR's match).

    That level of under testing would be reflected in the positivity ratios. The testing today in Europe would have much higher percentage of positives. I don't think the numbers reflect that. The US and Netherlands each average about 12.5 tests for every positive. The UK is 35 tests for each positive. yet the CFR is 15.5%. Over testing is supposed to lower the CFR, not raise it?

    And the US only recently passed up EU countries on tests per capita- we had a bad start and a lot of confusion getting ramped up.

    Unstructured random testing is a waste of resources. You want to sample a lot of different areas, and then focus your testing on the high positive spots, increase the testing in those areas so you can utilize the tests to the best effect.

    Anyway I don't make up the numbers, I take CDC counts for the US and ECDC counts for for Europe. If the data is bad, you have to register your complaint with them.

    If you have a number from the ECDC for total tests performed in Europe, I'd like to know what it is.
    the absolute number of positive tests is only moderately relevant.
    the percentage of the population that has tested positive is important.
    in sweden testing has no other goal than to find out where the population stands in epidemic.
    10% of tests are positive in sweden, and has been so for quite some time.
    in the last 5 weeks the number of tests has doubled but the percentage of positives hardly changed.
    at this very moment a coupkle of % on the swedish population is infected.
    yet the number of hospitalisations and admittances to the icu have dropped dramatically.
    the low hanging fruit has been picked by covid19.
    at the moment the situation is that people die of covid19 that would have died at this moment because of other problems.
    the number of deaths at the moment actually is lower than in the previous 5 years in the same period.
    at the current rate in a couple of months sweden will have left covid 19 behind.

    another nice example is quatar.
    more than 25 % of the population has been infected.
    the rate of new infections is getting lower because there are so many that already have been infected.
    their deathreate is only 44 per million

    armenia looks to be going the same route.

  4. #3183
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    And where has that happened?
    sweden and quatar

  5. #3184
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    Quote Originally Posted by digger doug View Post
    Why are you so sure ?

    Quotas and Bonus's make the world go 'round.

    Even in a socialist system.
    univeral healthcare only is socialist to those that call everything that places human before profit socialist.


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