OT - opening up as best we can. AKA - is it still just the seasonal flu? - Page 2
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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Can you tell us how these deaths were different?
    CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

    My understanding is that all fatal Influenza like illness ( ILI/I&P) result in similar end.

    Perhaps passing quietly in ones sleep is just not an option.
    Different?

    We did in 7 weeks what happened in 52

    how about that for different?

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    That is assuming that such medical care will be available, ...and not completely overrun by an out of control virus.
    I have a relative who works in facility that cares for the long term (in Hampshire UK), very disabled, motorcycle riders who've been in a semi-coma 10 years after a crash, minimally concious patients after 'surviving' a stroke etc etc.

    Covid-19 is going thru their facility, they've called the local NHS hospital asking for a doctor visit, described the symptoms, to be told "we're not going to visit, there's no point, their going to die"

    I didn't ask my relative what they put on the death certificate as to cause of death.

  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Can you tell us how these deaths were different?
    CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

    My understanding is that all fatal Influenza like illness ( ILI/I&P) result in similar end.

    Perhaps passing quietly in ones sleep is just not an option.
    Because, and according to my understanding, the Corvid 19 deaths - (in your example 80,000) are EXTRA DEATHS - as in over and above the ''normal'' death rate from all causes including ''ordinary flu''

    Or put another way .

    That's 80,000 more people have died than normal.

    Now I realise some may dispute those numbers, …….but the fact remains a hell of a lot of folk would still be alive without Corvid 19.

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  6. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    Because, and according to my understanding, the Corvid 19 deaths - (in your example 80,000) are EXTRA DEATHS - as in over and above the ''normal'' death rate from all causes including ''ordinary flu''

    Or put another way .

    That's 80,000 more people have died than normal.

    Now I realise some may dispute those numbers, …….but the fact remains a hell of a lot of folk would still be alive without Corvid 19.
    Yes, and the Covid deaths are actual deaths, unlike the CDC report of estimated deaths for flu, that number is an extrapolation. For 2017-18 that was 60,000 (not 80,000 as CalG's site states, but I guess he likes that number better than the actual one from CDC), for 2018-19 the number is at 37,000. CDC flu estimates

    Applying the same extrapolation to the actual Covid deaths paints a very different picture, and it's not nice. I'm sure that doesn't matter to the folks who want to desperately to brush this off though.

    Cue the "yes but some people are listed as Covid death but they died from something else". Sure, lop half the U.S. deaths off the total. The extrapolation, using CDC methods, would still be massive compared to flu. In a much shorter time.

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  8. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Might be a bit premature to chill, Cal, until we see the backside of these mortality rates (below).

    .
    Problem is not knowing the back of the curves.
    I think everyone has seen the curves that show the huge spike in cases and deaths without a shutdown along with it's quick drop back to zero.
    Then there are the curves with shutdown, for some reason I do not get also projected as bell curves. This already showing not to be true.
    We have isolated the highest at risk at this point which may have skewed the data a bit. My healthy 70 something mother-in-law has not left her house at all.
    No one knows what happens if the high risk population begins to go outside again.

    In manufacturing this almost becomes a supervisor's dream.
    Workers not allowed to talk or chit-chat or even have lunch together. Stay at your work station, no contact. Head down, do your job, this is not social time.
    If you have been a supervisor/foreman in a manufacturing plant in the past you know that this has always been a problem you have to fight continuously.
    Ford has these nifty watches that go off and notify those in charge if you get within 6 feet of another person.

    Ideally you would isolate each worker from everyone else and any distractions "for the good of all".
    Now any interaction between workers on work time or breaks becomes a health and safety violation.

    All good and prevents spread of this bug or any other but a huge change in working conditions for many.
    Part of going to work for many has always been going to work with others and the chit-chat about my or your fishing trip, have a baby coming, birthday parties......
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    Because, and according to my understanding, the Corvid 19 deaths - (in your example 80,000) are EXTRA DEATHS - as in over and above the ''normal'' death rate from all causes including ''ordinary flu''

    Or put another way .

    That's 80,000 more people have died than normal.

    Now I realise some may dispute those numbers, …….but the fact remains a hell of a lot of folk would still be alive without Corvid 19.

    LS
    No, it's not excess mortality, You have misread, or the article is confusing. A quick trip to the CDC web pages will show the numbers over the past decade.
    The article points out one "estimate", I have seen other numbers , depending on how things are broken out.

    But the NUMBER of deaths that season was HIGH, Not as high as the 1968-69 flu season, however. (100.000 in NA. over 1 million World wide) by the way, Woodstock was held that year ;-)

    The Term "flu like illness" and the term "Influenza and pneumonia" (I&P) are used to describe any number of illnesses and causes of mortality. The illnesses present much the same, they all show similar symptoms that can lead to mortality. They all get tallied variously and the numbers are often combined. leading to disparity in the figures, depending on who is doing the counting. Covid-19 is right in there with them. Non-Covid- flu deaths dropped off prior to high rates of testing. At present, I believe that is being corrected. "Just the flu" did not "just go away".

    I get riled when someone makes a plea to emotion about how much suffering this flu season has caused due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and fail to connect the exact same suffering to many times more suffering over the past decades. All of the sudden a bad flue season is a disaster? Why now? Why the perception of eminent doom? The numbers don't show that.
    99% of flu related mortality in Italy is in the over 65 age population. Just like previous years. Italy has seen an "excess mortality" this season, but the percentage is low. less than 10% EXCESS if I recall correctly. Italy also sent it's Covid ill patients TO aged care facilities in the mistaken effort to match facility to care needs. If they would only have known... Same for New York. Dumb Governor!

    Around the globe, overall population mortality is DOWN from both averages and projections.
    Could it be that we have some catching up to do! Time will tell.

    We are past the time for alarmism. Now we need calm heads and self responsibility. Fearing a "second wave" with no better action than our first wave response will have violence in the streets.

    Look to the Swedish model. Sane and practical.

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    OKAY OKAY. You get riled and while you're at it, KEEP THE F'K AWAY FROM ME & MINE!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    OKAY OKAY. You get riled and while you're at it, KEEP THE F'K AWAY FROM ME & MINE!

    Your attitude is exactly why this entire episode is so screwed.

    You are angry and fearful at and of a stranger. And I do NOT have the disease.

    It seems to be working, now who can we blame?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    .....

    Look to the Swedish model. Sane and practical.
    That yet to be proven.No real facts yet.
    Wonder how Limiy would like a Cornish type guy showing up at the doorstep.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Look to the Swedish model. Sane and practical.
    I would dearly love to adhere to the "Swedish Model" Can I chose how old she is?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Your attitude is exactly why this entire episode is so screwed.

    You are angry and fearful at and of a stranger. And I do NOT have the disease.

    It seems to be working, now who can we blame?
    Gordo the great?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Look to the Swedish model. Sane and practical.
    On topic. Yes, the Swedish Model may have some advantages. It also has a much more homologous population, more educated on average than the USA's, and the government has a respected, active, and knowledge/science-based approach to the situation.

    Hmm, now spot the differences to how the USA is dealing with Covid-19...

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  22. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    That yet to be proven.No real facts yet.
    Wonder how Limiy would like a Cornish type guy showing up at the doorstep.
    Bob
    He'd get the same answer as above, …………..anyway ATM he'd be breaking the law.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Your attitude is exactly why this entire episode is so screwed.

    You are angry and fearful at and of a stranger. And I do NOT have the disease.

    It seems to be working, now who can we blame?
    So you have been tested? …………..and it came back negative? …………….and when was the test done?

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    The original question was about opening up and how to deal with it.

    I'm taking it at face value and assuming it isn't just another bash Trump thread.

    We are told that it is a highly contagious upper respiratory infection. We have been dealing with these for years and if more attention were paid to hygiene there would be fewer people infected with flu, colds, etc.

    The first and foremost rule is avoid the obviously contagious. IMO one of the smart things the Chinese did was use those infrared temperature scans of people's foreheads. If you are running a fever you likely are contagious with SOMETHING and ought to be sent away from work, school, and other places people are.

    We know that the main route of infection is via eyes, nose, and mouth so direct contact with aerosols or touching contaminated surfaces and then touching them can lead to infection.

    Around here the stores all have plexy barriers at cashier stations etc. and they have temporarily banned reusable grocery bags. Everyone must also wear masks when in situations where they can't maintain distance.

    At this point IMO the best way forward is to advise and educate about best practices and then allow people to decide their comfort level and let that dictate their degree of re-engagement. If people are afraid or feel they have conditions that render them vulnerable they probably should continue to stay home while more confident people resume the essential activities that will prevent the economic and social fallout from escalating from serious to catastrophic. We can not remain largely dysfunctional without risking complete economic and social collapse, which would kill many times more people than even the most dire coronavirus death models.

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  26. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    OKAY OKAY. You get riled and while you're at it, KEEP THE F'K AWAY FROM ME & MINE!
    I think there's no worry there given that rational people tend to avoid those who make statements like the above.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Your attitude is exactly why this entire episode is so screwed.

    You are angry and fearful at and of a stranger. And I do NOT have the disease.

    It seems to be working, now who can we blame?
    Several weeks ago before masks became mandatory I was out for a walk and as I approached a street corner I saw a young couple approaching, both wearing masks. As has been my custom recently I stepped back and off the sidewalk to give them the proper "social distancing" comfort zone. It ended up more like a dance as the young woman started darting about in panic and I kept changing direction to maintain distance. I could tell she was in a panic because her eyes were almost rolling back in her head at the sight of a stranger without a mask. Finally the guy grabbed her and pulled her back while I crossed the street. I smiled at them but I felt like screaming "Grow Up!". If they were that afraid of strangers they probably should have stayed home. Most people just pause while we make adjustments to maintain distance and many say thank you for making the effort.

    PS: Neither of the two had anything protecting their eyes so the masks were essentially worthless if someone coughed or sneezed at close range.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    So you have been tested? …………..and it came back negative? …………….and when was the test done?
    I think the question is how to convert miles to kilometers in groups of 1000.

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    As I thought - you haven't been tested, therefore you don't know whether you have it or not.


    It is possible for a carrier to be asymptomatic (as in show no signs of the disease) yet still be able to pass it on to others, ……………….and as it can take up 14 days (and possibly longer) to incubate, it can be passed on to a great many people and so on.



    Putting that aside, ….do you honestly think governments all over the world would have brought in control measures that are wrecking economies etc etc - just for the fun of it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    As I thought - you haven't been tested, therefore you don't know whether you have it or not.


    It is possible for a carrier to be asymptomatic (as in show no signs of the disease) yet still be able to pass it on to others, ……………….and as it can take up 14 days (and possibly longer) to incubate, it can be passed on to a great many people and so on.



    Putting that aside, ….do you honestly think governments all over the world would have brought in control measures that are wrecking economies etc etc - just for the fun of it?
    Unfortunately….here in Erie, Pa. they have one hospital in town that set up testing tents (drive up service) and the place is a ghost town.

    You can't get tested unless you've gone to your doctor whilst displaying symptoms.....(you know, hacking and coughing up a lung in the waiting room)

    However, if you test positive, a band of volunteers interrogates you to where you have been in the past 14 days, and starts planning the attack.
    They call all of the people they think that may be at risk, and condemn them to stay inside their homes (at risk of police arrest) for another 14 days.

    Wonderful system eh ?

    While I understand the testing tent set up can't test each and resident, why not simply ask every phone (contact tracing victim) to report for a test ?

    Nope, "guilty by association" is the rule these days.


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