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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    No denying people have died in the past few months. 7.5e9 people times 1 death per person per 3e4 days of life equals a big number of corpses every day. Just sayin that when I put on my investigator hat and walk the beat lookin for the facts about the rona, we're havin trouble finding on-the-ground evidence for a pandemic round these parts.

    And...if ignorance is bliss, you ain't seen nuthin til you've tried Stupid. If you bitches even try to fix my stupid, Ima call my lawyers.
    One might reflect on the number 3,000,000. Three Million....

    That is an average year's mortality in the US of A.

    Where do THEY put all those bodies?

    Actual mortality during this first quarter is DOWN about 10%. There is going to be some catching up to do. There are holes to fill.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    soon to be 100k people in what 10 weeks or so

    with an entire country in lockdown

    yeah, its just the flu

    like a flu we have not seen in over 100 years


    What is totally amusing is to see the same bobbleheads blame China because they did not do enough[when the locked down tight an entire region] while the moron in chief was claiming it was all just fine

    So, either it is no big deal, or it is, which is it?
    The big deal or not part is sorta in the eyes of the beholder. Round numbers, about a 150,000 people die per day on the planet. Crazy, like a Peoria, or Sunnyvale, or Dayton's worth of people every day.

    Can't really bring myself to care what the chiners are doin. Or the freedum luvin murkin people. I'm just doin what needs to be done to piss off the everyday ordinary normal motherfuckers. It's a heavy burden but somebody's gotta do it. #Leadership

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    . . . Actual mortality during this first quarter is DOWN about 10%. There is going to be some catching up to do. There are holes to fill.
    Source?

    Here's the WS Journal: U.S. Deaths Are Up Sharply, Though Covid-19’s Precise Toll Is Murky - WSJ

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    Oh fer Pete's sake, Pete. If there were a blood test for boomer, I bet you'd test in the 99th percentile. . . . Were it self-evident there's a fkn RONA out here killin us, well, maybe I'd change my tune. Thought experiment: If there were no media at all, no TV, radio, newspapers, journals, internet--no nuthun--the crazy ones would be the ones sayin the sky's fallin oh fuck watch out for the rona. That's the power of the media. The ghosts are in yer hedz, yall.
    How can you possibly know (the boomer thing)? I've been on TV. In more than one country, even. Really just a precocious seven year old, who started posting here 18 years ago.

    We'd agree that science doesn't deal in ultimate truths. Just possible explanations, then more likely evidence-based theories, then more or less proven "laws" until we revise them under the weight of new evidence.

    As for there's no "rona" virus to worry about killing people until you see it with your very own eyes - we could apply that logic to all sorts of things. There's no need for for a bike helmet, until we personally witness someone's head smashed for example. And you're right, might not even occur to me without someone to tell me.

    It's pretty well established this is a new virus, it's contagious, and it can kill people. Countries, states, and even counties that acted before it overwhelmed them have mitigated the damage. Just by trying to limit contagion. Countries that brushed it off as fake news got hit harder. The US, a prime example both in mortality and the hit to our economy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    How can you possibly know (the boomer thing)? I've been on TV. In more than one country, even. Really just a precocious seven year old, who started posting here 18 years ago.

    We'd agree that science doesn't deal in ultimate truths. Just possible explanations, then more likely evidence-based theories, then more or less proven "laws" until we revise them under the weight of new evidence.

    As for there's no "rona" virus to worry about killing people until you see it with your very own eyes - we could apply that logic to all sorts of things. There's no need for for a bike helmet, until we personally witness someone's head smashed for example. And you're right, might not even occur to me without someone to tell me.

    It's pretty well established this is a new virus, it's contagious, and it can kill people. Countries, states, and even counties that acted before it overwhelmed them have mitigated the damage. Just by trying to limit contagion. Countries that brushed it off as fake news got hit harder. The US, a prime example both in mortality and the hit to our economy.
    Just a question?

    How did you react to the bad flu season of 2017 2018?

    45 million people in the US of A contracted the disease that winter. Many died.

    Did you notice?

    eta

    Pete, not singling (you) out. The question is for us all. But feel free to comment...this is a discussion forum ;-)

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Just a question?

    How did you react to the bad flu season of 2017 2018?

    45 million people in the US of A contracted the disease that winter. Many died.

    Did you notice?

    eta

    Pete, not singling (you) out. The question is for us all. But feel free to comment...this is a discussion forum ;-)
    You are still a liar


    please tell me the week where 10k people died of the flu, in, well, oh, nevermind, you can't cause it didn't happen

    you are just repeating the same lie like it means something

    over and over and over

    100k died of covid in 10 weeks


    you are a liar

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    You are still a liar
    ..and you are still an abrasive asshole.

    So f**king WHAT?

    You don't REALLY believe you are going to get "cash back" points off the repetition of it, do yah?

    I mean.. "it's PM". Best we can hope for is personalized advertising, yah?

    And why would they NOT?

    Everybody seems to agree the economy is controlled by assholes, yah?

    Whom else wuddja aim yer advertising at?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Just a question?

    How did you react to the bad flu season of 2017 2018? . . .
    Judged the risk as best I knew it, took steps to mitigate them.

    A question in return, Cal, how is it that you thought this was nothing from the beginning, but would get seriously worried and want to take precautions after we had 80,000 deaths (your number, too high) for seasonal flu deaths in a very bad year?

    And, now, at 90,000++ -- well past your previous this-is-real point -- and clearly with most (97-99%) of the nation lacking any immunity and much in the way of treatments -- apparently think now would be a great time to book cruises and a Rolling Stones reunion tour?

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    How can you possibly know (the boomer thing)? I've been on TV. In more than one country, even. Really just a precocious seven year old, who started posting here 18 years ago.

    We'd agree that science doesn't deal in ultimate truths. Just possible explanations, then more likely evidence-based theories, then more or less proven "laws" until we revise them under the weight of new evidence.

    As for there's no "rona" virus to worry about killing people until you see it with your very own eyes - we could apply that logic to all sorts of things. There's no need for for a bike helmet, until we personally witness someone's head smashed for example. And you're right, might not even occur to me without someone to tell me.

    It's pretty well established this is a new virus, it's contagious, and it can kill people. Countries, states, and even counties that acted before it overwhelmed them have mitigated the damage. Just by trying to limit contagion. Countries that brushed it off as fake news got hit harder. The US, a prime example both in mortality and the hit to our economy.
    The boomer blood test doesn't know anything about age; it detects a state of mind. Acute flaccid boomervaginiosis has always been with us and always will be. It's concentrated in a particular segments of the population. Cureable, but involves a difficult and painful treatment. Most just go back to the soma.

    There's a bit of a difference between what's obvious thru everyday experience and what's only asserted and not independently verifiable. And yeah so we're assessing the odds differently. I liked your approach to thinking about wtc7--the 99% 99% 20% 99%--that's a sensible way to calculate the odds. My numbers would be different, but still. Took a few classes at SU related to mathematically-driven decision making that made computational "trees" loaded with probabilities and rewards to determine the correct decision given those assessments of the odds and the risk preferences of the decision-maker. Cool stuff. Anyway, those trees were only as good as the estimates of the odds. And without clairvoyance, in the complicated messy real world, nobody knows the odds.

    After you read a lot of history and begin to grok the trajectory of the world, the news is noise. I try to apply a lowpass filter to everything coming in. That's revealed a world where oligarchs are consolidating control over humanity over the course of hundreds of years. Whether the virus is real, fake, naturally-occurring or a laboratory creation...whether it's incredibly dangerous or completely innocuous or something in-between...it's being used as a wedge to further consolidate power, all promoted to the masses as doing what needs to be done for our health and safety. Oligarchs are oligarchs because they put oligarch interests first. And this goes way beyond money. Never let a crisis go to waste, right? Circumstantial evidence is key to understanding what's unfolding.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post

    100k died of covid in 10 weeks
    No, it isn't exactly the flu.
    It has a higher death rate. That wouldn't bother me as much was it not for my two elderly parents ( age 74 and 73, one of them in a so-so condition. )

    What bothers me is the appearance of an insanely high infection and replication rate.
    I am not a conspiracy nut, but that single fact does make one stop and think for a minute.

    Now as for death rates.
    Obviously not good, but we don't know everything, and will not know for a while what the effective rate is.

    What we DO know is that in 2018 deaths in the USA was 2,839,205, which translates to 236,500/month from all causes combined.
    Today, we stand at 92,000 from Covid, counting from early March, roughly 30,000 and some / month.
    Realistically, that number should be something like 40K/month, but again, we don't know that yet.

    If we use the 40K Covid, and the total monthly figure from 2 years ago, then Covid may be projected to be responsible for 16-17% of total annual deaths.

    In contrast, in 2018 heart disease was 22-23%, while cancer stood at roughly 20-21% as the cause of death.

    Again, having this new contender is not good, but it will take years ( a few anyway ) to come up with a realistic and accurate number.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    . . . Oligarchs are oligarchs because they put oligarch interests first. And this goes way beyond money. Never let a crisis go to waste, right? Circumstantial evidence is key to understanding what's unfolding.
    I'd agree with you that powerful interest groups are hoping to use this to their advantage. One would hope that 300 million+ of us (citizens) would also take notice -- and use it to our advantage.

    As far as existential threats go, SARS-2 strikes me as middling. It's real, worth being prepared for, worth taking precautions, something Trump shouldn't be lying or misjudging most every day about, but something we'll get through.

    Much more worried about the economic and environmental debt we're taking on. Our economy recovered a couple years after the Spanish Flu, despite hundreds of thousands dead, three cycles, and shutdowns. Even got through the Great Depression, WWII, boom and bust most recent decades, and the 2008 Great Recession. Now poised to shoot ourselves in the feet all sorts of ways (nukes, pandemics, crappy leadership, destroyed trust and institutions, terrorism, stupidity, etc.).

    I personally question if we're going to get through the next series of booms and busts so "easily" as 1900 to 2000 if we don't start aiming for both a real return on our debt -- fewer skimming off the top -- and start realizing we're starting to bump into environmental limits to infinite growth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Yo===ou know, We have people dying that have never died before.

    Basement Joe told me this, I heard it on the news, it's TRUE!
    Reading you guys reminds me of the reply purported to have been made by Galileo back in the day.

    "It still moves".

    You guys have just on 100K deaths over & above the norm for the period. There's no sign of this stopping. Yet you're still in denial.

    As I said about stupid....

    PDW

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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    Reading you guys reminds me of the reply purported to have been made by Galileo back in the day.

    "It still moves".

    You guys have just on 100K deaths over & above the norm for the period. There's no sign of this stopping. Yet you're still in denial.

    As I said about stupid....

    PDW
    *yawn* Ennybuddy paying attention to the count of those as AIN'T up and died?

    Or the rising tide of folks who think it's a damned shame a select few mebbe SHOULD HAVE?

    History ain't the ONLY thing get written by nowt but the survivors.

    It's the FUTURE as actually matters.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    I'd agree with you that powerful interest groups are hoping to use this to their advantage. One would hope that 300 million+ of us (citizens) would also take notice -- and use it to our advantage.

    As far as existential threats go, SARS-2 strikes me as middling. It's real, worth being prepared for, worth taking precautions, something Trump shouldn't be lying or misjudging most every day about, but something we'll get through.

    Much more worried about the economic and environmental debt we're taking on. Our economy recovered a couple years after the Spanish Flu, despite hundreds of thousands dead, three cycles, and shutdowns. Even got through the Great Depression, WWII, boom and bust most recent decades, and the 2008 Great Recession. Now poised to shoot ourselves in the feet all sorts of ways (nukes, pandemics, crappy leadership, destroyed trust and institutions, terrorism, stupidity, etc.).

    I personally question if we're going to get through the next series of booms and busts so "easily" as 1900 to 2000 if we don't start aiming for both a real return on our debt -- fewer skimming off the top -- and start realizing we're starting to bump into environmental limits to infinite growth.
    We can argue till the cows come home about SARS-2, what we cannot argue about is the ineptness of the current government. Assume that SARS-2 was as deadly as Ebola and had its own infectiousness, latent for weeks, spreads like wildfire. We would be looking at millions dead, and Trump still would be selling snake oil and making it a state issue. That would be a real shitscreek and that is what half the country allows him to do, even though he despises us all.


    dee
    ;-D

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Judged the risk as best I knew it, took steps to mitigate them.

    A question in return, Cal, how is it that you thought this was nothing from the beginning, but would get seriously worried and want to take precautions after we had 80,000 deaths (your number, too high) for seasonal flu deaths in a very bad year?

    And, now, at 90,000++ -- well past your previous this-is-real point -- and clearly with most (97-99%) of the nation lacking any immunity and much in the way of treatments -- apparently think now would be a great time to book cruises and a Rolling Stones reunion tour?
    Pete

    When the virus first came here, I was concerned in the way I was for the bird flu, H1N1, Swine flu and ebola etc.
    What a relief, not to suffer "too much" from those scares.

    When the SARS CoV-2, Wuhan virus started to show it's self with so many P&I traits, I remained cautious of media hype. I had been warned in training, that this season 2019-2020 was expected to be "another bad flu season" i.e. P&I. My skepticism remains regarding the hype, for the "flu numbers" have taken a very limited presence in the "death toll" now masked with Corona. I ask, Who got the preseason warning about the seasonal flu number so wrong? Perhaps someone knew something .... Overlap is the likely explanation. Never attribute to evil what is more likely stupidity.

    At present, the mortality numbers are over 90,000 souls attributed to the Wuhan pneumonia. The victim profile is remarkable. The aged and infirm are being selected from the population to perish. That is remarkable. Both "good" for the young and able, and very bad for the loss of so much experience of life. Much unlike the "seasonal flu" which has historically been much less selective.
    I have to wonder how such mistakes as sending the ill back to elder care facilities could have been allowed. Not only in the US of A, but in Europe as well. What would be the death toll IF the many thousands of elders in care facilities had been protected. I've mentioned the obvious match between physical need and facility, but what a fuck up!. We live and we learn...
    Sweden has had similar difficulties in their aged communities. Norway on the other hand does not have large elder communities as the norm.

    At this moment. Though high, the mortality numbers in the US of A are not dissimilar to recent big flu seasons. With the "seasonal nature" and decline starting to show, I can hope the numbers do not become exceptional. Sure I'm concerned. Some regions are hit very hard. That must be demoralizing to those communities. Myself, I have not seen any loss except "hear say", and "I know someone who knows someone." I am Fortunate .

    Now that the numbers are out. If you are less than 65 years old and healthy, you have is little to fear of this virus. There is nothing new with SARS CoV-2 compared to P&I . The elder and infirm are vulnerable. I am so grateful that the kids seem so uninvolved this time.

    Now too, the disparity of the Closures are to me a greater crisis. All the collateral losses due to the "treatment" administered by "politics" could easily amount to more destruction than the virus. The division of "haves and have nots is sickening.

    I must admit, I am defiant. even to my own mortal weakness. I have little acceptance of those who ask the truly living to share a half a life between two. A life fully lived, to it's end, is my preference..

    I only can hope that THIS virus follows the path of the H1N1 strain. gone? We can pray so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    Reading you guys reminds me of the reply purported to have been made by Galileo back in the day.

    "It still moves".

    You guys have just on 100K deaths over & above the norm for the period. There's no sign of this stopping. Yet you're still in denial.

    As I said about stupid....

    PDW
    Are you sure about that 100K excessive mortality? I have not seen any data that indicates that.

    I have seen data to the effect that Wuhan Pneumonia has resulted in 10% excess mortality "Due TO Infuenza and Pneumonia".

    Remember, 3 million people die each year in America of all causes. 100K hardly shows on the graph.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Here you go, first of 100,000 hits for "morgues overloaded in NYC" -
    I've always wondered what the LAST return on the 100.000 hits would be....

    Someday, when I get tired of talking with you guys, I'll look into it. ;-)

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Someday, when I get tired of talking with you guys, I'll look into it. ;-)
    F**k's sake!

    No WONDER "modern Vermont" spawns a "one whore f**ks all" Bernie Sanders!

    "Back in the day" I woz at Burlington's Ira Allen Elementary Skewl?

    Green Mountain boys were still able to f**kin' MULTITASK!


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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Are you sure about that 100K excessive mortality? I have not seen any data that indicates that.

    I have seen data to the effect that Wuhan Pneumonia has resulted in 10% excess mortality "Due TO Infuenza and Pneumonia".

    Remember, 3 million people die each year in America of all causes. 100K hardly shows on the graph.
    It fuckin does if it happens in 10 weeks, that would translate 520,000 extra dead in a year. That is an extra 18% over and above.


    dee
    ;-D

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    Quote Originally Posted by dcsipo View Post
    We can argue till the cows come home about SARS-2, what we cannot argue about is the ineptness of the current government. Assume that SARS-2 was as deadly as Ebola and had its own infectiousness, latent for weeks, spreads like wildfire. We would be looking at millions dead, and Trump still would be selling snake oil and making it a state issue. That would be a real shitscreek and that is what half the country allows him to do, even though he despises us all.


    dee
    ;-D
    Isn't amazing how two different people can look at the same set of events and interpret diametrically opposite assessment?

    I see the POTUS , recognizing he knows nothing of "epistemology" (;-) Following the advice of his consul.

    WHO, CDC, etc. And then taking precautions and actions that would not be overly authoritarian.

    I do NOT want an authoritarian government, even in times of epidemic.

    Has anyone read "Love in the Time of Cholera" by Marquez ? A fun read

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