OT - opening up as best we can. AKA - is it still just the seasonal flu? - Page 29
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  1. #561
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    California issued the stay at home order on March 19. New cases that day were 161. After 2 months of lockdown, new cases yesterday was over 2,000.

    Increased testing accounts for a lot of that- but the deaths track new cases, and are independent of testing so you can't just attribute it to more tests.

    You see this same thing everywhere. Peak cases and deaths a month or more after the lockdowns were imposed. I can't find a single State that saw a decline after the lockdowns. You look at the State epi curves on worldometer, the tall bars are all well after the lockdowns.

    15 days to slow the spread? I don't think so.
    U.S. Could Have Saved 36,000 Lives If Social Distancing Started 1 Week Earlier: Study : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR

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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    The problem with *that* line of 'logic' is that if you get infected, you're not just putting yourself at risk.

    Like driving at 200+ mph on a salt flat somewhere, if you total the vehicle the only person likely to get killed is you.

    So that means that it's ok to do 200+ mph through a school zone at release time, right? After all if nothing goes wrong it'll all be good.

    PDW

    Well, It's not like I'm going to break into your house and give you a long and intimate embrace.

    You should stay off my lawn too!

  3. #563
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    Another freaking "model" with no basis in any reality....

    If you believe anything that comes out of NPR, There is no hope for you.

    I can not believe it can call it's self "public radio".... . Agenda much!

  4. #564
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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    The problem with *that* line of 'logic' is that if you get infected, you're not just putting yourself at risk.

    Like driving at 200+ mph on a salt flat somewhere, if you total the vehicle the only person likely to get killed is you.

    So that means that it's ok to do 200+ mph through a school zone at release time, right? After all if nothing goes wrong it'll all be good.

    PDW
    terrible example. the people that dont want to put themselves in danger shouldnt be in a school zone if using your example. dont want to risk your life? stay the fuck at home. let people that are ok with taking risks do their own thing.

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  6. #565
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    somehow i dont think anyone here is preventing anyone from anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    What the hell is with companies closing down their customer service departments? Paypal seems to have shut theirs down, and so have Macy's. I also had ridiculously long waits trying to contact Fedex. Took me 6 hours in phone calls and waits trying to update my account, that they no longer let me do online. This crap is driving me nuts, all kinds of added time dealing with BS. FTS and then some. I wonder if some businesses are using Corona-Virus as an excuse to cut staff and provide even worse customer service than before.


    Some of it may well be that the online companies are facing an enormous increase in traffic to all their departments because of the bricks-and-mortar businessed being on hold. They still have to use real people to work the warehouses and customer service departments, even with the lockdown/sheltering/staying-at-home policies.

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    You realize that's just running the models backwards, right? Hell. maybe everyone should have shut down on January 1? Imagine how many lives we could have saved.

    Anyone can argue the counterfactual, I'm all about the data. Counterfactuals are fine, but the burden to show they are valid is on the person who is making the assertion. That's not me. I will go by empirical data over computer models every time.

    The "15 days to slow the spread" was because that's the incubation period. The theory is the people who were infected but weren't presenting, would either be identified in that timeframe by getting sick, or they would get well and not be infectious. Since we didn't know who these people were, everyone had to lock down.

    Okay, we did that. And then some.

    Now what really happened is, cases skyrocketed in the 30-60 days following the lockdowns. The data is there. The lockdown has been longer, and less effective than it was supposed to be. The discussion about "opening back up" is a perfectly valid conversation to have, and it doesn't help for people to present it as an all-or-nothing proposition. No one is going back to normal right now. But it's been awhile, and I'd kind of like to get a haircut one of these days.

    You shouldn't make simplistic assumptions about this virus. Singapore had 1000 cases on April 1, and everyone was championing Singapore. Today they have 30,000 cases.

    They are saying in Florida they think their first cases were actually in late December or very early January. Before any tests were even developed, anywhere.

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    In the 1919 flu epidemic in Queensland ,the second wave in June /July killed twice as many as the first wave earlier in the year.I found out the details last year because the Lutwyche Cemetery sent me a request for $5000 to reserve my great grandfathers plot for a further 50 years.He had 13 children ,about half still alive in 1969,and a few quite well off,but I dont know which of them stumped up then for the 50 years 1969-2019....no record of who paid .......Anyway ,on a bit of checking ,he was put in a mass grave ,and the plot is just a monument ......so I declined ,giving one of his other numerous descendants the honour of paying the fee......Anyway ,there is a pic of the monument on "Fifty Million Graves"...enough for me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    You realize that's just running the models backwards, right? Hell. maybe everyone should have shut down on January 1? Imagine how many lives we could have saved.

    Anyone can argue the counterfactual, I'm all about the data. Counterfactuals are fine, but the burden to show they are valid is on the person who is making the assertion. That's not me. I will go by empirical data over computer models every time.

    The "15 days to slow the spread" was because that's the incubation period. The theory is the people who were infected but weren't presenting, would either be identified in that timeframe by getting sick, or they would get well and not be infectious. Since we didn't know who these people were, everyone had to lock down.

    Okay, we did that. And then some.

    Now what really happened is, cases skyrocketed in the 30-60 days following the lockdowns. The data is there. The lockdown has been longer, and less effective than it was supposed to be. The discussion about "opening back up" is a perfectly valid conversation to have, and it doesn't help for people to present it as an all-or-nothing proposition. No one is going back to normal right now. But it's been awhile, and I'd kind of like to get a haircut one of these days.

    You shouldn't make simplistic assumptions about this virus. Singapore had 1000 cases on April 1, and everyone was championing Singapore. Today they have 30,000 cases.

    They are saying in Florida they think their first cases were actually in late December or very early January. Before any tests were even developed, anywhere.
    I do realize, but in the models, days matter. We did not do what the model says, prove me wrong, we have 94,000+dead. What is the point? My point is that we missed the opportunity to save lives. The point is that in a pandemic every day counts. One needs to make decisions based on the data, not gut feelings. Still, we do not test enough to make sure we are safe. it is not one thing it is many things, you will have to open and close things to control the rate of infections to a manageable level.


    dee
    ;-D

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    What blows my little mind is how all these grown-ups can take a theatrical production so seriously. Watch WWF much? When you look outside and there are NO SIGNS OF A PANDEMIC does it even occur that maybe you're being lied to on a massive scale? It's a scam, gents.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Some of it may well be that the online companies are facing an enormous increase in traffic to all their departments because of the bricks-and-mortar businessed being on hold. They still have to use real people to work the warehouses and customer service departments, even with the lockdown/sheltering/staying-at-home policies.
    Could be just the opposite as well. Business is down. I'm getting bombarded with sales offers for industrial supplies and sporting goods.

    I might pick up some climbing skins for next years ski season ;-) I wish I needed another hydraulic cylinder, there are some good sales offered.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    What blows my little mind is how all these grown-ups can take a theatrical production so seriously. Watch WWF much? When you look outside and there are NO SIGNS OF A PANDEMIC does it even occur that maybe you're being lied to on a massive scale? It's a scam, gents.
    When I look outside I see signs of it. Were you sent here to spread conspiracy theories? Surely you don't believe what you say.

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    Quote Originally Posted by crazygoat View Post
    When I look outside I see signs of it. Were you sent here to spread conspiracy theories? Surely you don't believe what you say.
    Well, We don't see the tragedy in the elder care homes unless you are trying to visit someone family member in one
    That fully 40% of the mortality. So take the number that you have in your head, Cut it in half, and then you have the number that might show out your window.

    About the same number perished of flu and influenza just two seasons ago.

    Adapt to your reality. How many persons do you ACTUALLY KNOW not know of, that has been lost to this Wuhan pneumonia?

    I knew one, heard of another. Both were unhealthy in a variety of way. No surprise to me, but they were members of a large family, and many people in my area were saddened to see them pass.

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    Quote Originally Posted by crazygoat View Post
    When I look outside I see signs of it. Were you sent here to spread conspiracy theories? Surely you don't believe what you say.
    It's definitely a scam. Nobody sick with the rona around here or with anyone I've talked with. Corporations getting trillions while normal people get $1200 checks, freedoms evaporating, mandatory vaccinations coming, etc. etc. give me a fkn break.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Well, We don't see the tragedy in the elder care homes unless you are trying to visit someone family member in one
    That fully 40% of the mortality. So take the number that you have in your head, Cut it in half, and then you have the number that might show out your window.

    About the same number perished of flu and influenza just two seasons ago.

    Adapt to your reality. How many persons do you ACTUALLY KNOW not know of, that has been lost to this Wuhan pneumonia?

    I knew one, heard of another. Both were unhealthy in a variety of way. No surprise to me, but they were members of a large family, and many people in my area were saddened to see them pass.
    That 40% number is actually closer to 30%. I don'r not know anyone who has died from, But I have a small number of friends(by choice). I have been social distancing long before it became a buzzword.
    One-Third of All U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Nursing Home Residents or Workers - The New York Times
    Scroll down about two thirds of page and you will see nursing homes death rates as a percentage of deaths on a state by state basis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by crazygoat View Post
    That 40% number is actually closer to 30%. I don'r not know anyone who has died from, But I have a small number of friends(by choice). I have been social distancing long before it became a buzzword.
    One-Third of All U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Nursing Home Residents or Workers - The New York Times
    Scroll down about two thirds of page and you will see nursing homes death rates as a percentage of deaths on a state by state basis.
    Well, for fucks sake...is a battle of percentages based on "reports". Get a grip. The elder and infirm are being targeted. Both by the virus and the politics.

    Covid-19: nursing homes account for 'staggering' share of US deaths, data show | US news | The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...re-home-deaths

    1/2 of 90%....lets do the math..... hmmmm

    My reference has bigger numbers than your! Waa,...Waaaa Waaha!~

    The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

    Not no more, it ain't!


    Left, Right, Center, and could-give-a-shit "wingnuts" taking turn-about posting on internet forums, rather.

    "Good intentions" having been outlawed as rascist "hate crimes" long since?

    There's nothing else for it.




    "

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straightedge View Post
    It's definitely a scam. Nobody sick with the rona around here or with anyone I've talked with. Corporations getting trillions while normal people get $1200 checks, freedoms evaporating, mandatory vaccinations coming, etc. etc. give me a fkn break.
    I believe you!

    they're coming to take you away, haha
    they're coming to take you away, hoho, hehe, haha.

    tumblr_4e186a02fb2cfa85c255f8e835567c7c_073c9c2c_1280.jpg

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  25. #579
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillE View Post
    I believe you!

    they're coming to take you away, haha
    they're coming to take you away, hoho, hehe, haha.

    tumblr_4e186a02fb2cfa85c255f8e835567c7c_073c9c2c_1280.jpg

    I recall that song.... Now you got it going in my head... I'll never get to sleep tonight.....;-)

    to the funny farm, where life is beautiful all the time...

    they are coming to take me away

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    I recall that song.... Now you got it going in my head... I'll never get to sleep tonight.....;-)
    That one is EASY to forget..

    "Punch, Brothers, punch....."

    Sheet Music, 1870-1885: In Performance, Choral Works from the Collection

    .. is the HARD one!

    Dare yah!!!



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