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  1. #781
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Can you offer any support or explanation for how "wearing the mask" will help us all get past this crap sooner rather than later"?

    . . .

    I'm just trying to get a grip on the logic. I like to have a reason for what I do.
    I'm not Tim, but I'll take a crack at it for what must the at least the third time.

    IF we don't learn anything about transmission, don't get tests, don't get better treatments, and never get an even partially effective vaccine, then "flattening the curve" doesn't buy us anything. Chances are the entire country eventually turns into something like NYC at the worst. The result is more like the Spanish Flu - three waves, millions dead, before we acquire herd immunity (assuming that''s even possible for this).

    On the other hand, buying time lets us:

    1) Learn the actual transmission modes. As post #1 shows, we likely had it mostly wrong to begin. Knowing it's airborne we can take measures to avoid taking down an entire old folks home, meat packing plant, congregation, etc. at a time.

    2) Have cheap, accurate, and widespread testing in place so the sick can sit it out and home or the hospital (some will die) while the others keep the economy ticking at a near normal pace. Even today, we're not up to par.

    3) Cut the mortality rate. There's still lots to learn. Why it attacks so many organs besides the lungs? Why older people are more affected? How long might acquired defenses last? Early on mortality was up around 10-20% for some groups showing up at a hospital. They were overloaded and unprepared. Someone would shove a breathing tube down your throat and a tiny fraction would survive. Since then we have more masks and PPE to protect medical workers. We learned about proning. We learned that blood oxygen levels decline precipitously before symptoms become apparent - meaning that those with a $15 pulse oximeter can actually get milder treatment sooner. We have one FDA approved treatment and likely more on the way. It's safer to show up today with a cough, a fever, maybe a low blood oxygen level than before. It will almost surely be safer still in a few more months.

    This is a biggy. If only 1% are seriously affected and 20% of those die, then around 700,000 of us die. Cut the mortality in half through better treatments, and 350,000 lives are saved.

    4) Learn how to open up the economy. The subject of this thread. Clearly some workplaces don't have a clue. As Dualkit noted, even large franchise businesses don't seem to have best practices. Months ago we talked about how an auto plant might more safely reopen but the necessary understanding, accurate testing, masks, workplace rules, etc. weren't in place. Meanwhile lots of businesses have learned how to deal with this. Three of my groups are now running with Zoom - some cons but aslo some pros to it. The roofing crew that showed up yesterday did fine. Stores have figured out how to give customers and cashiers a bit better protection -- and at least around here there haven't been any significant shortages beyond the initial panic buying of TP etc.

    5) Maybe make some progress toward a vaccine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    New Zealand?

    We'd probably agree that a 100% lockdown for whatever the period (3 weeks was the guesstimate) would have been effective. We'd still likely get new cases from the wild (or whatever the Wuhan origin), but that should stop it until re-infection.

    You'd also now agree that locking out new cases from abroad was a good thing. Me too -- and by the same logic as lockdowns within our country. Only difference is back when we were supposedly keeping out Chinese and Europeans, we weren't either willing or able to quarantine, test, or track our tens of thousands of US citizens returning from those places. Some went on to spur contagion in places like the NY metro area.

    The question then becomes how effective at slowing this down has a partial lockdown been? Far as I can tell, it has put a significant dent in an otherwise exponentially rising event. Most viruses, left to their own devices, don't decline until something like 70% of the population have been exposed and acquired immunity. We're only around the 1% point. Final word on immunity is still out, so it's maybe a best case that this slows down once we get WAY past 1% infected. Either that or tests to allow selective isolation, sensible precautions like wearing masks, better treatments to cut the death rates, or the holy grail of an effective vaccine.

    Here's the US, topping the charts to date:

    Infection Trajectory: Which Countries are Flattening their COVID-19 Curve?

    Sounds like your feeling is that because cases kept rising, the lockdown has been ineffective and a waste. Otherwise, why would cases keep rising across the country?

    The answer, per most epidemiologists, would be because the social distancing has only been an approximation of a lockdown. We still have 80% employment. Meat packers are packing. Without adequate testing, asymptomatic carriers are running about. Now that it's become a political thing, our CDC is telling us to wear masks, social distance, and not try to treat yourself while our president is showing he doesn't need no stinking mask, Tweeting we should protest closures, and urging chloroquine for us. So -- it's a very partial lockdown -- but it has dropped the R value in many states and it would almost surely be higher without the measures taken.

    By analogy - a virus is a bit like a wildfire. It keeps burning until it either runs of of fuel (humans to infect) or is put out. Health experts think social distancing is like cutting fire lines - it slows it down. Your take is it must be crossing fire lines. Could be. More likely, IMO, it's crossing in places where there aren't the equivalent of those fire lines -- the vast majority of our population yet to be infected and (often) still employed (80%) and not taking much in the way of precautions. With better testing, we might actually know to what extent both of those might be in play.

    Next few weeks will tell more.
    “ We still have 80% employment.”

    Based on unemployment numbers Pete? You know that changes each month as people exhaust it and still are unemployed right? Too there are many who are having problems even getting it. Talk to people and come out of the shell. This downturn is already major.

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    So if you cough or sneeze don't cover yourself anymore? Masks are worthless and impede freedoms, I mean I still tell my kids to cover their mouths when they cough/sneeze but they might be labeled as commies for such unpatriotic behaviour, next trip to US... end up where?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    “ We still have 80% employment.”

    Based on unemployment numbers Pete? You know that changes each month as people exhaust it and still are unemployed right? Too there are many who are having problems even getting it. Talk to people and come out of the shell. This downturn is already major.

    Sure, it changes. And even 10% unemployment is a pox on society. The point about the employment rate, in context, is that we don't have a lockdown, but a slowdown. Economic activity is down maybe 5% (first quarter) and headed maybe to 10% overall -- not 100%. So, of course our "quarantine" hasn't been fully effective.

    I'm in one of the states and counties with a fairly aggressive "lockdown." However, my son is in contact with a couple hundred Home Depot employees and customers each day -- and then comes home. I'm somewhat cautious given my medical history, but get a ton of deliveries, go shopping, work at a distance with crews, say "hi" to neighbors several feet apart, play tennis with friends (taking some precautions), etc. Almost everyone in the nation has more or less significant contact with possibly symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers. The larger the crowd, and the fewer the precautions taken, the larger the risk.

    And for every one taking some precautions, like myself, there are others urging us to keep partying in large crowds. Still more reason why our "social distancing" has slowed but not stopped the new cases. My take is we ought to be doing what we can in terms of business, but also taking the kind of precautions to keep buying some time until we have a bit better handle on this. That, and better leadership at every level, to make sure that "bought time" gives us better testing, treatment protocols, work practices, and the like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    I'm not Tim, but I'll take a crack at it for what must the at least the third time.

    IF we don't learn anything about transmission, don't get tests, don't get better treatments, and never get an even partially effective vaccine, then "flattening the curve" doesn't buy us anything. Chances are the entire country eventually turns into something like NYC at the worst. The result is more like the Spanish Flu - three waves, millions dead, before we acquire herd immunity (assuming that''s even possible for this).

    On the other hand, buying time lets us:

    1) Learn the actual transmission modes. As post #1 shows, we likely had it mostly wrong to begin. Knowing it's airborne we can take measures to avoid taking down an entire old folks home, meat packing plant, congregation, etc. at a time.

    2) Have cheap, accurate, and widespread testing in place so the sick can sit it out and home or the hospital (some will die) while the others keep the economy ticking at a near normal pace. Even today, we're not up to par.

    3) Cut the mortality rate. There's still lots to learn. Why it attacks so many organs besides the lungs? Why older people are more affected? How long might acquired defenses last? Early on mortality was up around 10-20% for some groups showing up at a hospital. They were overloaded and unprepared. Someone would shove a breathing tube down your throat and a tiny fraction would survive. Since then we have more masks and PPE to protect medical workers. We learned about proning. We learned that blood oxygen levels decline precipitously before symptoms become apparent - meaning that those with a $15 pulse oximeter can actually get milder treatment sooner. We have one FDA approved treatment and likely more on the way. It's safer to show up today with a cough, a fever, maybe a low blood oxygen level than before. It will almost surely be safer still in a few more months.

    This is a biggy. If only 1% are seriously affected and 20% of those die, then around 700,000 of us die. Cut the mortality in half through better treatments, and 350,000 lives are saved.

    4) Learn how to open up the economy. The subject of this thread. Clearly some workplaces don't have a clue. As Dualkit noted, even large franchise businesses don't seem to have best practices. Months ago we talked about how an auto plant might more safely reopen but the necessary understanding, accurate testing, masks, workplace rules, etc. weren't in place. Meanwhile lots of businesses have learned how to deal with this. Three of my groups are now running with Zoom - some cons but aslo some pros to it. The roofing crew that showed up yesterday did fine. Stores have figured out how to give customers and cashiers a bit better protection -- and at least around here there haven't been any significant shortages beyond the initial panic buying of TP etc.

    5) Maybe make some progress toward a vaccine.
    Yep, old talking points based on lack of knowledge. And it continues today. Habits die hard. (perhaps Tim will come with a fresh perspective and some new and compelling information.)

    Tell me how the virus turns into a disease for some, but not for others. You can't, no one can. Did the virus enter through the eyes the nose, or the mouth? (some other mucus region? I trust not, but..... HEP B goes fecal)
    Are we denying those naturally resistant people the opportunity to further strengthen their immunity by "protecting" them from a beneficial exposure?. It would be cruel, if the bug came around again and killed them when they could have protected themselves. The 99% just got screwed. Or is it just a better equipped immune system? Unknown!

    The "Millions will die" theme fails the data test. Too many of us "just don't die that easily of this virus" . That worry is interest paid on a debt we don't have.

    No need to even start on "efficiency" and effectiveness crochet knit facial expression accessories? Bandannas? The actual use..Hands to face fiddling , constant fiddling.. I'm not fooled so easily.

    "Who was that masked man? I don't know, but he left a silver bullet". We need the silver bullet!

    Early on we were trying to "protect" ourselves. But now, with testing, The direction has shifted. Now the guideline runs "to protect others".
    Protect others? What sort of person coughs or sneezes onto others? I was taught to cover up during such episodes. No one wants that crap flying around. Healthy care workers don't ware masks to protect respiratory illness patients. It's the other way round, correct?
    And "speaking moistly" as the whimp- in-chief of Canuckta land says, well, don't do that ! Phlegmatic verbal expression is not something to do when ill, or any time. Data on normal CLOSED mouth breathing expulsion of SARS-CoV-2 from non symptomatic carriers would be very useful data indeed.

    I read that the pre-teens and teens like the masks. They are so accustomed to buffering interactions with other humans through their personal electronic devices and social media, that the mask provides a convenient barrier to hide any and all human qualities behind'. That very well might catch on to the older set as well. We won't even need to acknowledge another person's existence. 'So easy to deny them of anything that way.

    Sad to consider.

    But if we save one life..........How will we know?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Screwmachine View Post
    So if you cough or sneeze don't cover yourself anymore? Masks are worthless and impede freedoms, I mean I still tell my kids to cover their mouths when they cough/sneeze but they might be labeled as commies for such unpatriotic behaviour, next trip to US... end up where?

    Don't be stupid. Cover your cough.


    But I had to laugh, The use of the elbow to cover a cough or sneeze has become the "correct Way". Then when the virus started showing and hand shakes became unacceptable, The "elbow bump" was the replacement.

    Really, sneezed on elbows?

    Sick !

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Don't be stupid. Cover your cough.


    But I had to laugh, The use of the elbow to cover a cough or sneeze has become the "correct Way". Then when the virus started showing and hand shakes became unacceptable, The "elbow bump" was the replacement.

    Really, sneezed on elbows?

    Sick !
    That's actually pretty funny.......

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post



    And for every one taking some precautions, like myself, there are others urging us to keep partying in large crowds. Still more reason why our "social distancing" has slowed but not stopped the new cases. My take is we ought to be doing what we can in terms of business, but also taking the kind of precautions to keep buying some time until we have a bit better handle on this. That, and better leadership at every level, to make sure that "bought time" gives us better testing, treatment protocols, work practices, and the like.
    I would be satisfied with "undoctored-information".

    After that, I would prefer that the "leadership, testing work practices and the like just stay the !!!!! away.

    Treatment progress would be appreciated, but our record with the common flu is not a good indicator.

    Recall, this is not an illness that kills people under the age of 45. That is OVER 1/2 the US population. In a popular vote, those people would WIN! (in many ways)

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    New Zealand?
    They went from almost none before their shutdown to virtually none today.

    But even tiny New Zealand, their new cases epi curve follows the same pattern, with peak new cases 2-3 weeks after the lockdown was imposed.

    Should I believe that epidemiologists around the world are so tuned in to the way this virus behaves that they can precisely predict the peak?

    "We're 2 weeks from the peak, we better lock down now?"

    How can it be that virtually ALL the exponential growth occurred after the lockdowns were put in place?

    Seems like the bar keeps getting raised. We signed up for 15 days to slow the spread, not 15 weeks...

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    i want to see the person that can sneeze on their elbow.

    *from a distance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    . . . Recall, this is not an illness that kills people under the age of 45. That is OVER 1/2 the US population. In a popular vote, those people would WIN! (in many ways)
    That seems mostly true (only a tiny fraction of those under 50 or so seriously ill) in the US, Cal. Not so everywhere. An article from the Washington Post:

    "In Brazil, 15 percent of deaths have been people under 50 — a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49."

    It's hard to read much into this. But assuming this is accurate, it tends to go counter to the supposition that being exposed to disease vectors improves the immune response and makes US kids less likely to die. Average US kid is likely exposed to a whole lot less filth and disease than their counterparts in places like Brazil and India.

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    Im seeing a new phenomenon here now.....women with three or four young kids all coughing their guts out in the supermarkets....No sign of any mouth coverage ,as the kids are dragged around the supermarket, bawling and spitting drool all over everything...Seeing young kids out of control has long P O d me severly,now this ...Next wave of the virus ,here we come .

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    That seems mostly true (only a tiny fraction of those under 50 or so seriously ill) in the US, Cal. Not so everywhere. An article from the Washington Post:

    "In Brazil, 15 percent of deaths have been people under 50 — a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49."

    It's hard to read much into this. But assuming this is accurate, it tends to go counter to the supposition that being exposed to disease vectors improves the immune response and makes US kids less likely to die. Average US kid is likely exposed to a whole lot less filth and disease than their counterparts in places like Brazil and India.

    The data may very well follow the life expectancy curve for each region.

    You know, Pre existing conditions....

    But it could easily be something else. Be sure to pack a few extra face masks for your holiday in India.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    They went from almost none before their shutdown to virtually none today.

    But even tiny New Zealand, their new cases epi curve follows the same pattern, with peak new cases 2-3 weeks after the lockdown was imposed.

    Should I believe that epidemiologists around the world are so tuned in to the way this virus behaves that they can precisely predict the peak?

    "We're 2 weeks from the peak, we better lock down now?"

    How can it be that virtually ALL the exponential growth occurred after the lockdowns were put in place?

    Seems like the bar keeps getting raised. We signed up for 15 days to slow the spread, not 15 weeks...
    Careful with that "second wave" of tremblers. Last time was a doozie!

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    . . . How can it be that virtually ALL the exponential growth occurred after the lockdowns were put in place? ...
    Likely the same way wildfires continue to grow even after firefighters first show up. Takes a while to get noticed and reported. Initial efforts at containment (cutting fire lines the closest example) can't stop it dead in its tracks. Sometimes jumps the fire line (as in the initial cruise ship health worker case). And in the virus case, there are new "arsonists" showing up with some frequency.

    Any other plausible explanation? Seems wildly firefetched to think the entire medical and scientific community in every country is part of some conspiracy? Maybe some possibility this contagion is wildly different than the dozens of others we've faced. Still, New Zealand and other cases suggest not. Rather, that we're only partially effective at snuffing it out with limited containment measures (compared to countries that seem to have it under control).

    We might also wonder why so many cars crash, even after people notice they're in trouble and hit the brakes? Too little, too late. And that's without the exponential component (say, the accelerator jammed open).

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    ....How can it be that virtually ALL the exponential growth occurred after the lockdowns were put in place?
    It pretty much has to lag given contact to sick time.
    Much as any number in the first few weeks of opening up have no meaning.
    You don't touch your nose at noon and go the hospital at midnight.
    Bob

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    Simple fact is if the majority of the population had any self control or social responsibility ,lockdowns would not be necessary.Just got to see all the idiots crowding at the beach the moment controls are eased.......My pity goes out to all those trapped in nursing homes knowing kitchen staff are spreading the virus ,but not able to do anything about it......Not to the crowds of no-hoper millenials that cant exist without crowding together like locusts......As for Bolsonaro ,his strategy is obvious ......the virus will wipe out the poor and the natives ,roadblocks to progress for the wealthy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    The data may very well follow the life expectancy curve for each region.

    You know, Pre existing conditions....

    But it could easily be something else. Be sure to pack a few extra face masks for your holiday in India.
    I suspect that the infection rate/time base is more complex than we are modeling.

    From what I understand of the model, there is no accommodation for exposure concentration or immunity response.

    I suspect that there is a minimum threshold pathogen concentration to successfully infect a host. It would also be likely that the threshold concentration would increase over time. This would be due to the fact that at below threshold exposure levels, the host would have the opportunity to develop some limited degree of immunity. This would not be full immunity but partial which would increase over time and have an increasing threshold level as time progresses.

    This could possibly explain what we are observing with the shut in place people becoming infected while some of the essential labor group seems to be less effected over time.

    I find it interesting that initially the CDC was concerned with surface transmission of the virus but now has changed their position to most viral transfer is now human/human contact. This would imply that either the CDC was incorrect in there early observations or else the infection characteristics are varying with time.

    This would also mean that improperly prolonging the stay in place is actually exacerbating the covid infection rate. This also explains what we are seeing in Georgia and Florida as far as infection rates decreasing as time passes even though they are opening up at an accelerated rate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by john.k View Post
    Im seeing a new phenomenon here now.....women with three or four young kids all coughing their guts out in the supermarkets....No sign of any mouth coverage ,as the kids are dragged around the supermarket, bawling and spitting drool all over everything...Seeing young kids out of control has long P O d me severly,now this ...Next wave of the virus ,here we come .
    Too funny John. Taking care of kids is a tough job they are so very resilient over all yet not always.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    If you don't like what I say, rebut or ignore. But I expect reason, not tantrums.
    You are such a hypocrite.

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