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  1. #921
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    ...Here's where it stands now - image below. Five worst-affected countries so far are the UK, Sweden, Brazil, San Marino, and the United States.
    That chart is a 7-day rolling average, not a current total. IOW, last week's numbers.

    Overall the US is 12th down the list on per capita mortality, below almost all of Europe.

    As far as quality of care- when you look at case fatality ratios, you are more likely to survive in the US than Europe. Within the US, Texas and Florida are both better than the rest of the country, at least among States with enough cases to count. Texas is under 3% and Florida is under 5%. My State is about 6%.

    Worldometer numbers, divide deaths per capita by cases per capita. Yes, there is a lag but I'm talking relative comparison so lag is equal for everyone.

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    [QUOTE=PeteM;3556152]
    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Some fun with statistics

    With "the city" broken out as it's own "nation".
    in "per million" population.



    Here's your apparent source, Cal: Conservative Underground says U.S. doesn't lead in Chinese Wuhan CCP virus deaths

    Case rate per capita, absent a vaccine, is eventually guesstimated to end up around 70% everywhere. What it can indicate is the success, to date, of slowing things down. The NY metro area, for a variety of reasons already discussed (e.g. not properly screening returning US citizens from places like Italy) got hit hard. But other areas that allowed large gatherings have done even worse; notably Louisiana with Mardi Gras and Georgia opening up early:

    Louisiana ranks second per capita in COVID-19 deaths

    The real statistic to watch, whenever this is all said and done, will be the death rate per capita. Maybe 70% get infected, absent a vaccine. How many die? How many live? It will be partly a matter of demographics and partly a matter of the quality of healthcare and decision-making.

    Here's where it stands now - image below. Five worst-affected countries so far are the UK, Sweden, Brazil, San Marino, and the United States.
    Well, there you go again, bringing another perspective to the discussion. Good on ya mate!

    No, that was not the page that was the C&P. I'm sure the blurb is on display "around".

    The take home is the poor outcome of one small segment of our society and the numbers, the statistics, can be sidled over to show something, or nothing. The numbers for Italy with the aging northern industrial pollution zone extracted would be revealing. (with a significant number of Chinese Guest workers). I've seen the data, but I'm not interested enough to retrieve the search. ;-)

    We all must consider the sources for our views carefully. Multiple perspective is the best way to characterize any unfamiliar situation.

    I appreciate the options offered here!

    What part of the European CDC is run by those un-elected EU commie bovine parasites in Brussels?

    eta

    The Two nations of SPAIN must be furious over that data plot. They were not even included, And they are up there in the running.

  3. #923
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    [QUOTE=empwoer;3556163]
    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    . . .


    The Coronavirus Is Deadliest Where Democrats Live

    who could have ever seen THAT coming?...
    Most anyone who knew about the rural / urban and conservative / liberal correlation?

    People who live in rural areas tend to be conservative and, purely on a statistical basis, will tend to be the last infected. Lots of hotspots, though, like the meat packing plants in rural areas. They're also more likely to listen to media telling 'em things like it's just the flu.

    People who live in urban areas will tend to see the first cases and see it spread. In the NY metro case before either the Federal or State government had much of a handle on it. They're also more likely to listen to media trying to keep them mesmerized 7 x 24 with death tolls.

    The article does make an interesting point. People in urban areas are more likely to have sees the carnage, People in rural areas (so far) are less likely to have seen it.

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    [QUOTE=PeteM;3556171]
    Quote Originally Posted by empwoer View Post

    Most anyone who knew about the rural / urban and conservative / liberal correlation?

    People who live in rural areas tend to be conservative and, purely on a statistical basis, will tend to be the last infected. Lots of hotspots, though, like the meat packing plants in rural areas.

    People who live in urban areas will tend to see the first cases and see it spread. In the NY metro case before either the Federal or State government had much of a handle on it.

    The article does make an interesting point. People in urban areas are more likely to have sees the carnage, People in rural areas (so far) are less likely to have seen it.
    Pete

    I would prefer that you not conflate my posts with the links supplied by other members in a single reply with quote. Break the different contributions out.

    It is misleading and dishonest.

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  6. #925
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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    That chart is a 7-day rolling average, not a current total. IOW, last week's numbers.

    Overall the US is 12th down the list on per capita mortality, below almost all of Europe.

    As far as quality of care- when you look at case fatality ratios, you are more likely to survive in the US than Europe. Within the US, Texas and Florida are both better than the rest of the country, at least among States with enough cases to count. Texas is under 3% and Florida is under 5%. My State is about 6%.

    Worldometer numbers, divide deaths per capita by cases per capita. Yes, there is a lag but I'm talking relative comparison so lag is equal for everyone.
    At this point, the documented "deaths per known cases" probably isn't as good a measure as the "deaths per 100,000" people. Wide differences in the ability and interest of countries to know how many cases they've had. Even in the US, we're still arguing about the numbers. The number of deaths per 100,000 people a much more reliable indicator.

    Do agree the US is one of the better places to get this -- and hopefully getting better week by week.

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    [QUOTE=CalG;3556176]
    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post

    Pete

    I would prefer that you not conflate my posts with the links supplied by other members in a single reply with quote. Break the different contributions out.

    It is misleading and dishonest.
    Yeah, unintentionally screwed up in including Empwo's quote of your quote. My reply was addressed to him, not you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    (drivel redacted...)
    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Pete

    I would prefer that you not conflate my posts with the links supplied by other members in a single reply with quote. Break the different contributions out.

    It is misleading and dishonest.
    Well? WTF? It's PETE!

    When.... since DJT was elected.. were PeteM's posts NOT "misleading and dishonest"?

    Congenital bias? Political bias? "TDS"? Manipulation? Some combination or all of the above?

    He could not change ANY of that if he wanted to change it. And he does NOT want to change it.

    So "JFDWT"...... and take a "spring pass"

    .....or several..


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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    At this point, the documented "deaths per known cases" probably isn't as good a measure as the "deaths per 100,000" people. Wide differences in the ability and interest of countries to know how many cases they've had. Even in the US, we're still arguing about the numbers. The number of deaths per 100,000 people a much more reliable indicator.
    I gave both numbers. We are 12th in deaths per capita, not 5th.

    Case fatality rate reflects quality of the health care system and and the level of testing, since more testing will identify more mild cases. We're under 6%, Europe is over 8%, and the UK is over 14%.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Do agree the US is one of the better places to get this -- and hopefully getting better week by week.
    IF we don't get another New York, we're over the hump. D.C. has the highest positivity rate right now. Too high.

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    Quote Originally Posted by digger doug View Post
    Have you seen his ugly mug on the Boob toob as of late ?
    No I have not. The guy needs some time off though donít you think?

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    Is it death per capita or death per infection?
    Here we are rather steady at 9.5% with a fairly hard shutdown.
    Not sure what that stat means as so many ways to twist this tale.
    The state ranges from high density to very low density, and so many miles of difference in good/bad/normal infection and recovery rates from one end to the other.
    Simple charts, numbers or statistics do not work and will support any viewpoint you care to take.

    We all like to see a graph that supports our belief, fall behind such and post it.
    Truth in that it is not that simple.
    What I find so strange is that many of these people doing such now would have been the first to say statistics lie 6 months ago.
    Does one become a believer if the chart says what your heart says?
    Do we have and inboard need to place blame on anyone we can when things go out of control? That blame being those of not of our view?
    This mess has shown some stick together across many lines and some big divides for my clan. An extension of our recent national politics.

    In time of trouble you see the best and the worst.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    You need to do your homework.

    The Pandemic response team shifted it's appearance, it did not get disbanded

    Have you ever tried getting medical care in Canada? John Doe or native born, it's a shit show (from my experience.)

    The LAST thing I want is government supplied medical care. But I don't like the insurance companies running things either.

    A medical care co-operative might fit between. Cut out the scavengers and cream skimmers.

    Unfortunately, Such medical "options" would not be able to handle the epidemic any better. Take it from Europe!
    I did my homework. Trump can name the Team.... Greatest Biggest most beautiful virus response super duper team.

    But the bottom line is this, Trump did not follow the Pandemic Response Playbook. And America got screwed.


    Trump team failed to follow NSCís pandemic playbook
    The 69-page document, finished in 2016, provided a step by step list of priorities Ė which were then ignored by the administration.

    Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook - POLITICO

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    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    Oh yes...Iím liberal if thatís what you mean. I do believe in a strong public health system. Stronger that what we have now. Hell, it was better in Louisiana before Jindal dismantled the Charity Hospital System. Fantastic Trauma Health Care. Any cop shot within 30 miles raced to Charity. If a cop was shot in Jefferson or St Bernard Parish, then every cop in the Three Parish area closed off every road...shut down on ramps of Interstate System just to get the dying cop to Charityís Trauma Team. Just superb medical care.
    And...if a cop was shot, then another cop would put injured cop in his back seat...radio the dispatcher and fly to Charity at 100 mph. They did it over and over and over for years. They would fly by all the private for profit hospitals to get their dying brother to Charity.
    FWIW....when I had my business I was a Republican. Because my dad was a Republican and so I was too. And Republicans wanted lower taxes. But, in my defense taxes were much much higher back then. We still had the inheritance tax and a top rate of 40%
    Back to Charity. It was considered the hospital of the poor. And it was. Anyone could go there and if you couldnít pay, so be it. If you were poor and had less than 2000 in the bank, it was a wash....no bill sent. But, if you had a lawsuit because you showed up at Charity with broken leg because a car ran into your motorcycle, then the state would have its hand out at your settlement.
    This was a fair system.

    I changed to Democrat after visiting Charityís ER three times. Those were three of my nine lives. Hence, the Tim-9 lives. Iíve used a few of them up.

    Got shot three times....once in the chest and both arms. Nicked my lungs. Definitely almost died. Actually I did die on the table. Got my last rights and remember waving the priest away...not wanting the last rights because I thought I was saved since I too drove like a madman bleeding and almost passing out just to get to Charity. I guess in my mind... I thought I was saved since I made it to Charityís ER.

    And wrecked a suburban once...almost killing myself....and then, years later had a car fall on me....which was a thousand times worse than the gunshot. But the bottom line is that those visits to Charity...witnessing first hand a fantastic public health system...changed me to a Liberal. Yes...Government has its place in my opinion. Charity just fixed me. No calling an insurance company and getting approval to do a procedure which the doctor thought I needed. They just did it. They did fist class reconstruction to my back which had a shattered L-4 vertebrae. And FWIW...after 2 years in a wheelchair...I was fortunate. Iím walking. Barely....but still walking.

    And FWIW...insurance paid for the gunshot, so the state got paid. And for the car falling on me....the State had its hand out there at my settlement. 250k settlement for a car falling on me paralyzing me from the waist down and the state took 125k.

    No complaints here. Money is only a vehicle. God is good. I used 41k to buy a house a block from the river levee. Next to the Corps of Engineers. And I got it cheap because it was a boarded up HUD repo at the height of the crack epidemic. Who would have thought that because I was on the highest ground Uptown New Orleans...my house would shoot up in value. Iím not rich. But Iím not destitute either.
    Because I have bad credit because I was on disability and lost my business after getting hurt....I also have no secured debt. So even though my tenant canít pay me....I have no mortgage either. Two pieces of valuable property paid for. Yes...the virus is a bitch. But I say it all the time....Iíd rather be lucky than good. And I still consider myself lucky. Self pity is an absolutely useless emotion. It gets you nowhere. Itíll drive you to drugs or alcohol. I know....I was a heroin junkie too. And I loved it. But....itís also bad shit. My take is this....heroin is the Forbidden Fruit in the Bible. Bad shit dudes. 1000 times worse than any pill. Itíll grab you by the ass and have your life n itís total control after using it only a few times. Iíve never dealt with any drug like heroin. Bad shit. Meth ainít nothing compared to heroin. Truly the forbidden fruit.
    No....I donít blindly trust government nor do Hate government. Government has its place. A strong defense industry is what supports Americaís dollar reserve currency. Itís important guys. Itís why we have a strong standard of living. But thereís other important stuff too. Itís important for us to have a robust infrastructure along with decent public health.

    We want to have a strong public health system for stuff like pandemics. All of these business men who thing you can go to Washington and just do away with the State Department, cut federal funding for states which are blue states.....and run America like a business are damned idiots.

    So yes....after 60 years on earth... I am a proud liberal. I think we should try to make the world a better place. Are there things that should be fixed. Absolutely. And my biggest pet peeve. Welfare. You canít support the kids you have....then stop having babies. Hell, most everyone would like to have 5 or 6 kids. But itís expensive. And most working guys canít afford that. So if youíre on welfare and not working....then after the second kid...the government should cut the pay and benefits. Woman needs a Norplant in my opinion. Just basic shit guys.
    A very compelling story full of candor. Realize that here right or left nut cases will take advantage of you. Be careful as honesty is most often punished here with droves showing up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Trust me, the article came from the UK. Problems are problems everywhere you go.

    Must be global worming....

    No...it’s going away because of the lockdown. Can’t do a trial and test a vaccine if it’s not circulating. Of course, Brits could always do like that asshole running Brazil. He called it a hoax....wanted to be like Trump. Now Trump banned travel from Brazil.

    Here’s the article which explains it in detail. Headlines don’t explain it. You have to read full articles.

    Oxford University vaccine trial has only a 50% chance of success because virus is vanishing in UK | Daily Mail Online

    Here’s just two excerpts....but, the full article explains it better

    But the virus is circulating at low levels. Around 0.25 per cent of the population is currently infected and this will drop further if lockdown continues to work.

    Volunteers will find it difficult to catch SARS-CoV-2, meaning scientists can't prove whether the vaccine actually makes any difference.

    The fear has also been expressed by Imperial College London researchers, Britain's second vaccine contender which is not yet in clinical trials.

    The dilemma has led scientists to consider purposely infecting volunteers with the virus to see if the vaccine protects them.

    It would speed up vaccine development and save lives - but would be difficult to push through on ethical grounds.

    If Covid-19 is not spreading in the community, volunteers will find it difficult to catch, meaning scientists can't prove whether the vaccine actually makes any difference.

    Some 10,000 people are being recruited to test the jab over the coming weeks.

    Phases II and III involve vastly increasing the number of volunteers while expanding the age range to include elderly people, who are most at-risk of falling seriously ill with the infection.

    But Professor Hill said he expected fewer than 50 of those to catch the virus. The results could be deemed useless if fewer than 20 test positive.

  16. #934
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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    . . . When.... since DJT was elected.. were PeteM's posts NOT "misleading and dishonest"? . . .


    Well, Bill, sorry it's been such a bummer to have me take a shot at breaking up the nation's dwindling love affair with the guy. He's a con man. Gone from conning investors, TV viewers, and Trump U. students to the nation. Realize it's a hopeless cause in your case. Be nice, though, if you had an actual fact or two to share once in a while.

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  18. #935
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    A very compelling story full of candor. Realize that here right or left nut cases will take advantage of you. Be careful as honesty is most often punished here with droves showing up.
    Thanks for the concern Trueturning. I do appreciate that. But I’m not afraid of my story. I don’t lie and am not going to start at this point. I haven’t stuck a needle in my arm for 23 years. I did drugs for the same reasons as some drink too much. Depression and self pity. Self pity is a useless emotion.
    And FWIW, I have nothing to fear from some petty asshole who doesn’t like what I say....so he’s going to key my car so that he feels better about himself. Anyone who wants to find me....have at it. I’ve dealt with assholes before. FWIW, when I got shot....without all of the details....that bastard thought he was slick by hiding in my blind spot and firing into my car. I saw him in my mirror....jumped out and shot him 3 times in the belly. Yes, I missed him with the other 3 rounds.....but in my defense...we were only 5 feet from each other and he was shooting at me with his Colt Police Positive 38 special. We were that close and I was that aware to know for a fact. It was a Police Positive and I saw the lead in the chambers. But I was pissed. He just at shot me three times. ( and missed )
    And I’m even more cynical now than I was 35 years ago. A big 100 # Rhodesian Ridgeback and trust me....I’m a good fucking shot. Damned good. I shoot better rapid fire than slowly. Ambidextrous too. Always practice with both hands. Been into handguns since I was 14 years old. Don’t leave home without it.

    So I don’t look for trouble. I don’t get insulted. I don’t have to prove myself. But I ain’t going down without a hell of a fight. Anyone who wants to mess with me. Have at it. I’m easy to find.


    So...I’m getting off of my soapbox but I do thank you for the warning. And I also understand that most of these petty types do cowardly petty reprisals. Like calling the police on you....saying you have drugs....whatever. Still not concerned. If I can help one person by telling them that heroin is bad shit....I’m willing to risk the reprisals. Way too many think they can handle drugs. Well....maybe you handled meth or Vicodin’s. Heroin is the big leagues. The other shit ain’t nothing compared to it.

    I’ll say it again. It’s the forbidden fruit in my opinion

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  20. #936
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Is it death per capita or death per infection?
    Here we are rather steady at 9.5% with a fairly hard shutdown.
    Not sure what that stat means as so many ways to twist this tale.
    9.5% is the CFR. That's the percentage of known cases of COVID in Michigan who died. That's above the US average of 5.8%

    Michigan's death rate from COVID is 55.2 per 100,000. The US overall is 30.3 per 100,000.

    Those numbers don't tell the whole story. You have to consider the tests per capita when you think about the known cases denominator. Higher testing rates will increase the denominator and reduce the CFR. It won't reduce the number of deaths though.

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    Jancollc. Unfortunately that’s part of the problem. There is no unified procedures in place. There are recommendations. For instance....one state was combining the CV19 positive cases with the antibody positive cases. Two different animals. In other words....I was exposed to Hep C. Happened before I even started using drugs. This was in 1987.... before the blood banks screened for hep c. Almost everyone who had a surgery before 1989 then had a high chance of being exposed to Hep C.
    I took numerous units of blood when I was shot. So...I was exposed to hep C but my body Immune system fought It off and I never had Hepatitis C. I have the antibodies for Hep C
    Every blood test I get....shows antibodies for Hep C but Negative for Hep C.


    My point is....when you have a state combine the people who have CV19 with the people who test positive for antibodies of CV19....you have crap for a usable statistic.

    This is why I feel we need a strong Federal response to a viral pandemic. Not every state has the resources to respond to this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    ... My point is....when you have a state combine the people who have CV19 with the people who test positive for antibodies of CV19....you have crap for a usable statistic.
    Oh of course, none of the reporting has been consistent. Not between States, and not between countries. And what even defines a case and death is all over the place.

    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    This is why I feel we need a strong Federal response to a viral pandemic. Not every state has the resources to respond to this.
    I agree with that. But the CDC has been really, really bad at this. How are they going to be if they are in control everywhere?

    The Congress needs to appropriate the resources, and the States need to implement a serious effort to keep it out of nursing homes and protect the high-risk groups.

    FEMA is in charge of distributing to the States, and they are doing a good job of that. But the supply chain is all f'ed up.

    We need to move the manufacturing of the pharmaceuticals and PPE back to the US now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    Oh of course, none of the reporting has been consistent. Not between States, and not between countries. And what even defines a case and death is all over the place.

    I agree with that. But the CDC has been really, really bad at this. How are they going to be if they are in control everywhere?

    The Congress needs to appropriate the resources, and the States need to implement a serious effort to keep it out of nursing homes and protect the high-risk groups.

    FEMA is in charge of distributing to the States, and they are doing a good job of that. But the supply chain is all f'ed up.

    We need to move the manufacturing of the pharmaceuticals and PPE back to the US now.
    The CDC has been a disaster. They’ve gotten it wrong at every turn. They got the original tests wrong. Hard to believe because they were always at the top of their game. I’m not sure what happened to the CDC. Some say it’s because funding was cut. I can’t comment on it yet. What I do know is that I’m sure journalists are all over this. They’ll be articles and books on what went wrong .

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    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    The CDC has been a disaster. They’ve gotten it wrong at every turn. They got the original tests wrong. Hard to believe because they were always at the top of their game. I’m not sure what happened to the CDC. Some say it’s because funding was cut. I can’t comment on it yet. What I do know is that I’m sure journalists are all over this. They’ll be articles and books on what went wrong .
    The guy at the top does not impress me at all. Redford. The original test was lost in bureaucratic BS for 28 days FFS.

    The guidance changes practically every week. You can't get decent numbers from them in any kind of timely way.

    It's not about the money, it's about the bureaucracy. It has one speed, and that's it.

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