OT - opening up as best we can. AKA - is it still just the seasonal flu? - Page 50
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  1. #981
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    I wonder how many people who died from Corona-virus in Nursing homes would have died soon anyway? ....
    We're *all* gonna die soon anyway. Doesn't change the fact that *excess* mortality due to this virus just hit 0.1 million, and climbing.
    And if the Human Capital Stock folks get their way, if the Lets Have a Pool Party folks have their way, if the Lets Cut Everyones' Hair
    folks have their way, and if the Lets Drink Bleach and Inject Lysol asshole has his way, it will grow a lot faster.

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    Quote Originally Posted by john.k View Post
    Memo to USA residents....South Korea,Japan ,Taiwan ,(and China) all have efficient ,readily available ,free health systems ,unlike the US where a credit check is done on patients as the first stage....
    One of the most vital checks to do, when chosing a hospital, is to determine how often they sue their customers for payment. This tends to correlate
    strongly with overcharging for routine services, and also with ordering unneeded expensive diagnostic procedures. An interesting book to peruse:

    The Price We Pay: What Broke American Health Care--and How to Fix It: Makary MD, Marty: 9781635575910: Amazon.com: Books

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    We're *all* gonna die soon anyway. Doesn't change the fact that *excess* mortality due to this virus just hit 0.1 million, and climbing.
    And if the Human Capital Stock folks get their way, if the Lets Have a Pool Party folks have their way, if the Lets Cut Everyones' Hair
    folks have their way, and if the Lets Drink Bleach and Inject Lysol asshole has his way, it will grow a lot faster.
    Are you insane or just try to be as annoying as possible?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    Are you insane or just try to be as annoying as possible?
    No...he's a "Voter" and will cancel out yours...Have a nice day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    Though the CDC does not directly capture adult P&I mortality, rather to rely on the NCHS statistic gathering, they did make these statements regarding the 2017 2018 Flu season

    The 2017-2018 influenza season was a high severity season with high levels of outpatient clinic and emergency department visits for influenza-like illness (ILI), high influenza-related hospitalization rates, and elevated and geographically widespread influenza activity for an extended period. In 2017, CDC began using new methodology to classify seasonal severity and applied the methodology to the 2003-2004 through 2016-2017 seasons. The 2017-18 season was the first season to be classified as a high severity across all age groups.

    and

    During the 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. During the past five seasons, the average number of weeks this indicator was above threshold was 11 (range of 7 to 15 weeks). Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018.

    I wonder what the "seasonal profile of reported cases" will look like this year. Not in magnitude, but along the time axis.

    If it returns in fall, we just must have an alternate method of response. Underutilization of hospitals and beaches is NOT going to go over well.
    The overall vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the 2017-2018 flu vaccine against both influenza A and B viruses is estimated to be 40%. This means the flu vaccine reduced a person's overall risk of having to seek medical care at a doctor's office for flu illness by 40%.Sep 5, 2019

    40%... not a very affective vaccine. Bound to be a bad year for deaths from the flu. That’s the issue with viruses. They constantly mutate. HIV.... some 40 years later, still no vaccine. Just a cocktail of anti-virals. Seems like it...Works okay, but still no vaccine for it.

    That’s why a vaccine for this one is still a crapshoot. Time will tell.

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  10. #986
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    Are you insane or just try to be as annoying as possible?
    No, he's stating almost exactly what djt and his followers have said or want or did. About the only thing off a bit is the "drink bleach and inject Lysol" bit - it was "inject bleach and expose yourself to UV lights"

    YouTube

    [Note: This is from the UK Sun, a Murdoch (Fox "news") property. And later he claimed it was a "joke". "Sarcasm". Yeah, he sounds "sarcastic..."]

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    One of the most vital checks to do, when chosing a hospital, is to determine how often they sue their customers for payment. This tends to correlate
    strongly with overcharging for routine services, and also with ordering unneeded expensive diagnostic procedures. An interesting book to peruse:

    The Price We Pay: What Broke American Health Care--and How to Fix It: Makary MD, Marty: 9781635575910: Amazon.com: Books
    Makes sense to me. I remember reading something a while back where getting a surgery in the months approaching Christmas was also a bad move....as there is an inclination for some doctors to just sell surgeries because they need to buy Christmas gifts. Go figure. Just another business....not as much medicine as years past. So much for that oath....do no harm. Cutting someone open when it’s not needed is always doing harm in my opinion. I don’t care where you get cut. Might fix one thing....but the scar tissue alone is an aggravation for the rest of your life. It’s worth the aggravations when the surgery is necessary. But when it’s to buy gifts....shame.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    Are you insane or just try to be as annoying as possible?
    It's likely that Jimbo is a little of both.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    No, he's stating almost exactly what djt and his followers have said or want or did. About the only thing off a bit is the "drink bleach and inject Lysol" bit - it was "inject bleach and expose yourself to UV lights"

    YouTube

    [Note: This is from the UK Sun, a Murdoch (Fox "news") property. And later he claimed it was a "joke". "Sarcasm". Yeah, he sounds "sarcastic..."]
    LIAR!

    Nowhere in that clip does he say "Bleach". The word was disinfectant and no doubt he meant an agent that would nullify the virus without harming to patient.

    He also said "I'm not a doctor" and was asking an open question to ALL doctors and researchers.

    But truth doesn't matter to your tribe of crooked looter lie-bore-alls. That's why your fake news people invent such hoaxes because they know that once they say it on TV their faithful drones will obediently parrot it as if it were the truth.

    Trump never suggested anyone take aquarium cleaner either and authorities are re-examining the case of the ONE person who died from same, apparently questioning whether he actually gave the stuff to himself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Being a chart guy I guess I would say the downtrend in case load is broken.
    The open question is why..

    Attachment 289867

    Still early to tell, but this is what we should be focusing on.

    A whole bunch of people essentially think this is over. Many here, many in the states, pretty much the administration apart from its CDC. Various reasons for that belief. The downward trend in cases until, say, this chart. Maybe it being a hoax. Or no more serious than the flu. Perhaps to go away with the summer heat. Those believing this scenario will be gathering in large groups, not spacing, not wearing masks, etc. If they're right, cases will continue to go down.

    Another group doesn't think this over. They recognize the need to open up, but think we should be doing so with caution. The same sort of cautions, perhaps, that the CDC may have gotten wrong in its early advice (no need to wear masks, but don't touch your face, etc.). Perhaps the cautions expressed by the researcher in post #1 and the few others brought up during this thread. Basically, that if we want to open up best as we can, then we need to deal with aerosol modes of transmission. If they're right, we're going to see more unnecessary deaths and economic damage by not following guidelines 2.0.

    Other opinions, too, For example, that the medical community will never do anything to improve mortaility rates in the coming months, so we may as well do a kamikaze run into this and lose whatever number we're going to lose. That way we get it over with. That works if there actually is herd immunity. Jury is still out on if that's the case and how long it might last. Be a bummer, though, to have your family rush into this and lose a couple. And, then, discover a month or two later we had just approved medical treatments that could have saved them. One of the reasons it's a disappointment our government isn't systematically and rationally reviewing the hundred or so treatments in the pipeline, and telling us their progress. Instead, we're being told of chloroquine, bleach (?) injections, powerful UV lights down the lungs, and other BS. This list, while fact-based, is over a month old and doesn't cover much:

    Here’s Whats in the COVID-19 Drug Pipeline

    Deciding which of those paths to follow is why it makes sense to very closely watch (and learn from) what happens in the next few weeks. There might just be a few people left in the country able to look at the data and change their behavior - whatever this grand "experiment" tells us about the "theories" noted above. Who knows, maybe the summer heat will give us a break???

    What we'll probably see is a patchwork of responses, state by state, county by county. Each one running its own mini experiment in contagion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    It's likely that Jimbo is a little of both.
    And Scotto is deliberately ignoring facts. Like the pool party in arkansas that infected dozens. Like
    the two missouri hair salons that infected about 100. Like the captains of industry that claim we need
    Human Capital Stock to re-open the economy.

    Like drinking bleach and injecting lysol. Have some bleach, it's a most PERFECT SOLUTION to this virus
    that will just MAGICALLY GO AWAY. Best UV lights EVER. Go jam one of those up your ass, Scotto.
    It's a PERFECT way to cure the virus! BEST EVER.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    LIAR!

    Nowhere in that clip does he say "Bleach". The word was disinfectant and no doubt he meant an agent that would nullify the virus without harming to patient.

    He also said "I'm not a doctor" and was asking an open question to ALL doctors and researchers.

    But truth doesn't matter to your tribe of crooked looter lie-bore-alls. That's why your fake news people invent such hoaxes because they know that once they say it on TV their faithful drones will obediently parrot it as if it were the truth.

    Trump never suggested anyone take aquarium cleaner either and authorities are re-examining the case of the ONE person who died from same, apparently questioning whether he actually gave the stuff to himself.
    they see what they want to see, what fits their narrative, regardless of what was actually said or written.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    I wonder how many people who died from Corona-virus in Nursing homes would have died soon anyway? Not sure where I read it, but it was said the average nursing home resident is 83 years old and only 50% survive more than 6 months in one. Pretty sure the death count in nursing homes is pretty high with or without Corona-virus.
    The other day I picked up a stat in passing, I can't recall the State they were talking about. This would have been on Fox. What they said was that the average age of death in nursing homes- I think it was just that one State- was decreased by 10 years. So if they were at 85 years, now they are at 75.

    The deaths are not evenly distributed. Many facilities do not have outbreaks. They have a couple or a few cases, but they keep it tamped down. But the ones that fail to do that get clobbered.

    Here is New York by county and facility. Lots of single-digit places, but quite a few with many times more. That illustrates how the virus is creating excess mortality- if it was just slightly higher than normal, I don't think there would be this much variability from one facility to the next.

    https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics...g_home_acf.pdf

    I just picked one of the high double digits at random. Maybe this is just a really large facility or something.

    Father Baker Manor, 58 deaths. That facility had 152 residents and 160 beds according to propublica.

    Nursing Home Inspect - FATHER BAKER MANOR

    So you see one facility that lost 1/3 of it's residents, but a lot of others that only lost a few.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    Kettle, meet black hole.

    Hint - you've got your head so far up it, you may have to pull out to see it properly.
    Milland answer Scottl question about religion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    LIAR!

    Nowhere in that clip does he say "Bleach". The word was disinfectant and no doubt he meant an agent that would nullify the virus without harming to patient.

    He also said "I'm not a doctor" and was asking an open question to ALL doctors and researchers.

    But truth doesn't matter to your tribe of crooked looter lie-bore-alls. That's why your fake news people invent such hoaxes because they know that once they say it on TV their faithful drones will obediently parrot it as if it were the truth.

    Trump never suggested anyone take aquarium cleaner either and authorities are re-examining the case of the ONE person who died from same, apparently questioning whether he actually gave the stuff to himself.
    You can't possibly think it intelligent to defend this person? You don't need to fret misquoting him, he does a perfectly adequate job of playing the fool without misquotes. That any of you wouldn't be embarrassed and aghast at this video kind of cuts the core of your problem; polarized blind faith, no matter what. Not that we're on any high ground here, we've our own idiot that 1/3 of voters supported....I suppose that gives us a little something to hold onto vs 46% lol

    YouTube

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    Wow so much has been discussed about the infection rate and the death rate. Arguments over it seem to only use up time and effort. I think once this has passed and evaluated we will know at least what they tell us.

    Curious though are the people who die from the lack of available medical care. My doctor has limited visits and there are tests they do by appointment only. Who wants to go to the emergency room with a problem during this? I think many are riding it out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    Milland answer Scottl question about religion.
    Why should I debate fantasy with either of you? Chose to believe what you wish, as long as you don't foist it on me I don't care.

    When you seek to affect me with your "beliefs", then we have an issue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    9.5% is the CFR. That's the percentage of known cases of COVID in Michigan who died. That's above the US average of 5.8%
    Michigan's death rate from COVID is 55.2 per 100,000. The US overall is 30.3 per 100,000.
    Those numbers don't tell the whole story. You have to consider the tests per capita when you think about the known cases denominator. Higher testing rates will increase the denominator and reduce the CFR. It won't reduce the number of deaths though.
    Why is Michigan so bad in these measurements?
    Fairly strict social rules in place where you were not even allowed to visit the neighbor unless "essential".
    All that seemed like a good idea to me but the numbers don't bear out it working.

    The shutdown did bring out the loonies who thought carrying rifles into the state government buildings a good idea.
    Maybe not the best plan if one wants to keep open gun rights.

    Why did the shutdown and curfews in Michigan not put us in the lowest percentages? Were we just doomed to be the worst or does this plan not work as well as expected?
    Yes the number on the bottom matters and I see doubt that it would be way different on CFR with more testing but don't all states have the same testing problem?

    True we have southeast Michigan and Detroit but other states have big cities too.
    One can and will never know if what was done here worked, made no difference or did long term damage.
    Logical to follow the advice of doctors and such in these times but the results confusing.
    One wonders if the "science advice" is in fact science or a bias in thinking.

    Do not get me wrong, I believed, would scold others that did not want to get in line to protect us all.
    It is the "proof in the pudding" that now bothers me.
    For most that I know this shutdown has become a "financial windfall" but who pays that piper.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dualkit View Post
    I wonder how many people who died from Corona-virus in Nursing homes would have died soon anyway? Not sure where I read it, but it was said the average nursing home resident is 83 years old and only 50% survive more than 6 months in one. Pretty sure the death count in nursing homes is pretty high with or without Corona-virus.
    It is but it's normally a deep dark secret because it's bad for business. People tend to assume a high number of deaths means neglect but actually some of the classier places have more deaths because wealthier people usually don't enter a nursing home until they have exhausted all other options which means they are often sicker at time of admission and die within a shorter time.

    There is no doubt this particular virus is very dangerous for such patients but we could have done a far better job of protecting them without the ridiculous lock-downs of the general population.

    Unfortunately the "experts" are only now realizing what has been known for over a century. Keeping multiple people confined in buildings without fresh air always gives worse results when dealing with airborne pathogens. During the 1918 flu pandemic those with access to fresh air did far better than those in sealed barracks and hospital wards.


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