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  1. #381
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    Quote Originally Posted by Traderdude View Post
    Hands ups whos trading profits represent their primary source of income.
    Think I the only one bro

  2. #382
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    Now $170 after hours- I haven't been watching so don't know if the action carried it higher than this.

    Pumping fast- $183 two minutes later...

    "When pigs fly"....

  3. #383
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Now $170 after hours- I haven't been watching so don't know if the action carried it higher than this.

    Pumping fast- $183 two minutes later...

    "When pigs fly"....
    did you really expect the shorts to just get away with the BS they pulled?

  4. #384
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    Quote Originally Posted by empwoer View Post
    did you really expect the shorts to just get away with the BS they pulled?
    I’m not sure what bs you are referring to but I am fully confident that we disagree about what the recent price action in GME represents.

  5. #385
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    Speaking of crazy people- anyone a gold bug here?

    Seems to have been buying up- I am thinking fair value is around $400 and change per ounce.
    What- just traded through $2k.....

  6. #386
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    Well we have some crazies and we have some stupids.
    What are the chances that there are a few that are both

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Speaking of crazy people- anyone a gold bug here?

    Seems to have been buying up- I am thinking fair value is around $400 and change per ounce.
    What- just traded through $2k.....
    Im no 'gold bug', but I hold gold. Probably the only thing I own that I hope ill never need.
    So how did you come to your $400 figure?

  9. #388
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demon73 View Post
    Im no 'gold bug', but I hold gold. Probably the only thing I own that I hope ill never need.
    So how did you come to your $400 figure?
    Like most things I take a careful look and decide where I would be a buyer.
    Even at that I'm not a buyer as I don't like the trade.

  10. #389
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Like most things I take a careful look and decide where I would be a buyer.
    Even at that I'm not a buyer as I don't like the trade.

    There are different ways to view gold, but its value is underpinned by intrinsic value. If it weren't for that intrinsic value, it would be no safer or worthy an investment than tulip bulbs or bitcoins

    Over half the gold mined is used e.g. electronics, jewelry etc and the balance is investment in one form or another. Like anything there is a supply and demand price and where gold sits is partially a function of demand for use and demand for investment. If you took away all the speculative/investment demand, i,e, reduced demand, obviously, the price would drop. (of course a radically change in the supply would also move price on the curve). With a falling price supply would also drop - ,mines who's cost is over the market price shut down while those under keep producing. The price equilibrium is found in the production cost. Enough mines stay open to meet the remaining demand, and price will be something just over the cost of the highest cost producer in that group that stays open to meet demand. Stated simply, the price of gold can't go below the cost to produce it. Some analyst has probably figured out this out in detail, last I looked I recall it 800 or so. Or maybe a bit high such that there needs to be sufficient motivation for exploration and capex for new mines to keep supply steady, i.e. new mines coming on stream.

    This imo is the core of why gold is a 'safe haven'. You could do the same with copper or iron and I suppose some do, but the comparative scarceness of gold, high intrinsic value, history of acceptance, compactness and more universal nature (lots of places will take gold, few will take iron ore) make it easier. Bidding the price over its intrinsic value is a sort of paying an economic insurance premium, knowing there is a floor on the worst case scenario - unlike say a currency.

    I'm not very interested gold. The premium over intrinsic value is too steep - seems too much like admiring the emperor's new clothes. However that's a highly biased view from one in a place with a relatively stable currency and government (moronic but stable) providing better places to put ones money. I heard Warren Buffet once say since the time of Christ the return on gold isn't a 1/10 of a percent....so its seems a potential safe haven but a crappy investment

  11. #390
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    Quote Originally Posted by empwoer View Post
    did you really expect the shorts to just get away with the BS they pulled?

    How did you get that from what he said?

    What BS exactly? They got caught in what seems like a really risky and rather stupid trade position. And got their noses bloodied as a result. Being wrong in the market happens millions of times every day and he who is wrong pays for it.

    How are they getting away with anything? They've had to cover at higher price so lost a ton. You could argue the system worked.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drcoelho View Post
    .......... inexperienced or naive individual investors.....
    ......... without understanding the risks they are taking........
    At what point did it become everyone elses responsibility to hold the hands of inexperienced / naive investors? If they dont understand the risks they are taking ......well....experience is the best teacher.
    We need to stop protecting people from themselves.
    Similar to a shoplifter.....they understand the risk of getting caught, they just believe they wont get caught because they are smarter than everyone else.
    You do no one a favor by preventing them from doing something you think is stupid....they will just find some other stupid thing to do.

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  14. #392
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    I dismiss marginal cost as being controlling for price of gold.
    There is enough gold already mined to last a thousand years except for these agents stacking the stuff up like it’s still the 16th century.

    Screw gold.

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  16. #393
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    I dismiss marginal cost as being controlling for price of gold.
    There is enough gold already mined to last a thousand years .
    good point

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    good point
    I think you are being generous but thanks.
    Did I mention I really don’t like the gold trade....

  18. #395
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    Dr. Copper..


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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Dr. Copper..

    If only I could see the divisions it might make some sense to me...

    BTW what doo you think of this: LTMCF

    I held a few thousand since 2019, it kept going down, I just left it there.

    It came up fast, and I see it's down again.

  20. #397
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    Thats a monthly division chart.

    Like lots of commodities it shows and rally with/into the 2007 bubble and then long consolidation.
    It "broke out" this last year and some are talking of a new commodities 'super cycle' coming in.

    I mostly watch crude and have been following the slump for 15 years patiently waiting for the cross of the down line and wondering about where price is going to end up.
    Copper seems to be leading the charge..

  21. #398
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    LTMCF- is printing sort of a classic post IPO chart.

    FB printed the same if you want guidance for how common it is...


  22. #399
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    This is the same chart OSS printed and this is the analysis I posted for Buck back then as it was in the initial rally.

    In the case of OSS the resistance line was not (yet..) tested:


  23. #400
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    I am still a bit put out that I sold off early (for 200% profit) a position in YAYO given the rally it subsequently held.
    I could have bought a house with the profits if I had held...




    But....
    Crying about spilled milk doesn't do much in the markets..

    BOY did I take a beating yesterday though- a slump in the indexes AND a rally in the dollar combined to make my offshore dominant portfolio take a crapper...

    Wow- still in profits but whew that sort of move can blow your hair back... LOL

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