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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    If we were near a recession, there would certainly be more support for infrastructure improvement.
    It would be kind of nice to have a decent infrastructure without needing a recession to get it

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    Otrit I thought you would find this amusing.

    From am information page on recessions at Investopedia.
    Someones got a opinion,,,,LOL:


    "Looking Ahead
    With storm clouds gathering for stock prices and the world economy alike, many market watchers say that prudent investors should act early to protect against an extended and worst-case market downdraft. Those concerned about the short term, or even the long term, should consider defensive portfolio rotations such as boosting cash and moving to bonds and other asset classes. Meanwhile, those stock investors inclined to ride out the storm should ask whether they are financially, and psychologically, prepared to endure drastic declines."
    A History of Bear Markets

    Gathering storm my ass- some people....

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    Yes Triboat,
    These articles are quite popular, and plentiful these days. These publications have been very successful at frightening investors out of the market.

    As I stated earlier, Money Market Funds have recently seen record levels of inflows. This is a very reliable contrarian indicator.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    It would be kind of nice to have a decent infrastructure without needing a recession to get it
    Very well said Emanuel,
    What I see is that lower interest rates will not spark "demand" compared to a healthy dose of well needed infrastructure spending.

    When we eventually do dip into recession, it won't be because interest rates are too high, it will be caused by the lack of "demand".

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    You want recession....have a look at Softbanks investment.......should be "investments"......some of the biggest hyped lossmakers of the decade....Uber,Lyfft,Pelaton,and to top them all WeWork.......valued at 47 billion,worth ?,the market thinks diddly.And the biggest lessee of office space ever........simple plan,lease office space that everyone wants,then sublease for more dollars.......simple way to get rich?.....or go broke very quickly.

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    Maybe it’s nothing..

    0a3689b7-568a-43e7-b763-6d0a360fc6a9.jpg

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    Someone once said you make more money in a falling market than a rising one.....might have been Michael Milliken.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    It wasn't about religion, at least that wasn't the intention. Was intended to show that almost all groups believe their "cause" is the right one.
    Yeah, like almost all groups behead unbelievers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    Yeah, like almost all groups behead unbelievers.
    They have their Jihads and they really are relentless with the killing. This part of Islam seems to be here to stay yet another part of Islam does not wish this to happen which means they disagree with the parts in their writings where this is promoted as a duty. That is to convert by the sword all who are infidels.

    It is just what can happen in any religious or political group. We see the evidence in history crystal clear.

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    Dunno about swords ,plenty of AKs and RPGs......anyhoo,as long as they are killing each other ,can it be all bad?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    It is just what can happen in any religious or political group. We see the evidence in history crystal clear.
    Yes, history is clear.
    In America, Christians stopped executing witches three centuries ago, whereas under Islam infidels and apostates are beheaded on social media.
    That clear enough for ya?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Maybe it’s nothing..

    0a3689b7-568a-43e7-b763-6d0a360fc6a9.jpg
    I can certainly see your concern. Your chart does show something... lots of "fear".

    This, again, is incredibly bullish.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    I can certainly see your concern. Your chart does show something... lots of "fear".

    This, again, is incredibly bullish.
    Just wondering, at what point would you decide a drop in consumer confidence (say in 2008 or various recessions before that) was NOT incredibly bullish? Seems to me, at some point consumers are pretty much always right.

    Far as I can tell the Dow still isn't at 32,000 despite all these "bullish" signs. I still recall all those "pundits" in 2006 and 2007 telling us the financialization of most everything was a perpetual prosperity machine. A bit of history (tracking recessions and consumer confidence):

    Is Consumer Confidence On The Decline?

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    I have been looking at the Dow leaders- I am trying to find time to take close look at the ten largest by market capitalization and see what's up.
    Maybe this weekend- shoehorned between dog event with wife all Saturday and picking up equipment on Sunday...

    Anyone willing to say what represents the bellwether companies these days??

    Maybe CAT??

    Nothing here is crying too foul eh:

    screen-shot-2019-10-25-7.31.04-am.jpg

    And the meat in the soup...:

    bf80d43a27cdef750e5ad2420cf184e4.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    Yes, history is clear.
    In America, Christians stopped executing witches three centuries ago, whereas under Islam infidels and apostates are beheaded on social media.
    That clear enough for ya?
    I am clear on that sure. History.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Just wondering, at what point would you decide a drop in consumer confidence (say in 2008 or various recessions before that) was NOT incredibly bullish? Seems to me, at some point consumers are pretty much always right.

    Far as I can tell the Dow still isn't at 32,000 despite all these "bullish" signs. I still recall all those "pundits" in 2006 and 2007 telling us the financialization of most everything was a perpetual prosperity machine. A bit of history (tracking recessions and consumer confidence):

    Is Consumer Confidence On The Decline?
    Good Morning PeteM,
    Trboat's chart shows a degree of panic amongst some manufacturers future expectations. Many Wall Street pros are also getting rattled. In one example, exactly 1 month ago, Goldman Sachs stated; "Sell Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Because the Economy Isn’t Cooperating". What happened? ITW has broken out to fresh all time highs.

    My take, the market can easily make the "pros" look like fools.

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    Well, the good thing about ITW is that they actually make stuff and are reasonably well managed. It's the financial fraudsters -- more and more of them here over the decades -- who precipitate most busts.

    One way, at least for me, to look at the markets is as a sort of battle between companies actually adding value and those mostly skimming money off the top. In that respect it's sort of ironic for Goldman Sachs to be putting out a "sell" on Illinois Tool Works.

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    Anyone willing to say what represents the bellwether companies these days??
    I don't know about bell weather companies, but I would look at how much amazon is selling to manufacturing plants, job shops, auto repair shops, contractors, painters, handyman companies, things like that.

    I'll bet you'll find a ripe old underground economy just chugging along right under our noses.

    Just try to hire a painter right now. they're booked thru the winter around here.

    Just a thought.

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    Hello Thunderjet,
    I'm sure that there are others, but I would say that Illinois Tool Works is the "classic example" of a bell weather company. This company is a broadly diversified "Blue Chip" that is deep into auto production, food equipment, construction products, semi conductor equipment and I heard that they also make a very good welder (Miller).

    Despite of Goldman Sachs' foolish call a few weeks ago, ITW finished today at a 52 week high and was the 4th biggest S&P 500 gainer.

    By the way, Intel was the 3rd biggest S&P 500 mover.


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