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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    This is a lie

    What you need is storage

    While I am glad you envision a world of 100 percent renewables, cutting the current consumption of fossil fuels will do nicely, thank you very much

    We are already over 15 percent renewables in the northeast US
    Yehbut - how much storage? Because when it's cloudy or the wind isn't just right???
    Are you definitely 15% where you are?
    Because the film showed a lot of power stations being converted to gas, and blew a big hole through burning wood as a renewable?

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Not saying I agree with any particular restrictions

    But why do you suppose there is no virus where you are?

    Just luck? Clean living?

    Or the prevention of spread?
    Initially the clampdown of the spread. No planes etc.
    But for a while now it's become very apparent that a lot of the figures are pure made up. Not just here - look at New York where they've admitted to nearly 5x over inflating the qty's.
    So to me it's simple - if your area is free, and you have restrictions on movement between areas, at least let people go get post if they want to.
    I just read - Friday they did allow us out to walk (I thought it was from this week) - maximum 1KM from our home. And allotted time slot. Again, huge fines if you're found further out or not in the correct allotted time slot.
    Day 51 here now

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    I take it you've not seen the film then?
    Unless I fell asleep, he's not in it.
    YouTube

    busted! no it was more general comment on the MM genre
    Last edited by Mcgyver; 05-04-2020 at 11:27 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Pete,
    you obviously have way too much time on your hands. You haven't worked in decades.
    Might be so - however your lack of comment on this suggests you are in 100% agreement:

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Try running a business without water, sewers, police, fire, educated workers, roads, transport, phones, electric grid, standards, the Internet, markets, a financial system, rule of law, patents, maybe basic R&D and the long term "investment" we made to have a freer world post WWII. The guy who usually gets credit for inventing NC did so on a government contract. Ditto the Internet, much of Apple's tech, the basic research behind pharma, etc. etc. Right now, for better or worse (yet to be decided) the government seems the only entity capable of periodically rescuing us from the excesses of private greed (S&L crisis, Dot.com bubble, 2008 Great Recession, 2020 Dow binge, etc.) by providing liquidity.

    As for the both the private sector and government -- they're often being run poorly these days. A skeptic would say that what private industry recently seems to do best is screw the economy (Goldman Sachs and others), kill users (737 Max, Shkreli pharma, GM ignition switches), sell out to China (Wal-Mart), externalize costs (Dow, Exxon, BP), charge us 2x for healthcare, lead us into senseless wars, capitalize profits and socialize debts, etc. etc. And, sure, government is often equally inept or malign, witness current times.

    Both private industry and government can perform well and perform poorly. All depends upon how they're run."

    And given that we have the best administration in the WH that russia can buy, it's no suprise our federal government sucks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    . ..
    But for the future, planes aren't flying on batteries.
    No they're not.
    Not entirely farfetched, though. I have a buddy who's was a mechanical engineering Prof, founder of a few firms, and a flying geek. In retirement he and his wife moved to one of those places where every home has a hanger out back and access to a runway. He's built a couple planes, his own wind tunnel, etc. Latest is a patent for a bunch of electric motors covering wings -- with a prototype fitted to his own plane. Apparently (sort of) works if you don't want to take off on battery alone. Per same friend, Larry Page (of Google fame) is also curious about all this, comes up to talk at electric plane shindigs, and is spending some money on it.

    Hell of a long extension cord, though, it appears for now. But there might be some sort of hybrid that shortly makes sense?

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Mark, by all means believe the made up numbers and the lies.
    There's 0 cases here. And I'm not allowed to step foot out of my gate.
    HUGE fines and drones keep me where I am.

    Now don't get me wrong. There is a nasty strain of something.
    But it's not here. And I'm not even allowed to walk to the shop.
    Are you sure you are not being kept under lockdown because you are ugly?

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Not entirely farfetched, though. I have a buddy who's was a mechanical engineering Prof, founder of a few firms, and a flying geek. In retirement he and his wife moved to one of those places where every home has a hanger out back and access to a runway. He's built a couple planes, his own wind tunnel, etc. Latest is a patent for a bunch of electric motors covering wings -- with a prototype fitted to his own plane. Apparently (sort of) works if you don't want to take off on battery alone. Per same friend, Larry Page (of Google fame) is also curious about all this, comes up to talk at electric plane shindigs, and is spending some money on it.

    Hell of a long extension cord, though, it appears for now. But there might be some sort of hybrid that shortly makes sense?
    Pete you might enjoy a glance at the currently available E- trainers from Pipistel and the work Airbus and Boeing are doing on E-flight not to mention the up and coming manned drone field.
    Things are further along than some realize.

    Pipistrel ALPHA Electro - The first LSA certified electric aircraft. Pipistrel USA

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Pete you might enjoy a glance at the currently available E- trainers from Pipistel and the work Airbus and Boeing are doing on E-flight not to mention the up and coming manned drone field.
    Things are further along than some realize.

    Pipistrel ALPHA Electro - The first LSA certified electric aircraft. Pipistrel USA
    A Canada company has a nice twin seat flying...but I'm talking 350 seat holiday carriers...

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    Are you sure you are not being kept under lockdown because you are ugly?
    Now THAT is a distinct possibility...

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Not just here - look at New York where they've admitted to nearly 5x over inflating the qty's.
    I would love to see your source on this-
    Every source I read daily- and I read stuff from all over the world, from real reporters, not youtube videos-
    says that EVERYWHERE is underreporting, usually by at least 100%.

    In NYC, for example, nobody is a confirmed coronavirus death unless they died in a hospital AND were tested.
    Anybody who dies at home doesnt count.

    Seen the pictures of the backhoes digging mass graves, every single day, on Hart Island?
    Many of those deaths are not "official" because they go straight from dying in their bed to the funeral parlor, to a wooden box...

    U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests - The New York Times
    In Brazil, for example, Bolsonaro doesnt believe in the virus- so almost nobody who dies is an "official" statistic.

    And anywhere they cant afford fancy tests, which is most of the world, nobody knows...

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    The CDC just came out with a estimate that we will see 250,000 deaths by end of June. (In US).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    The CDC just came out with a estimate that we will see 250,000 deaths by end of June. (In US).
    Source for that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    I would love to see your source on this-
    .
    I can't find the link now but came across this stating miss-reporting
    Pennsylvania forced to remove hundreds from official COVID-19 death count over glaring discrepancies

    It said that the CDC have now revised the figures and split out Covid-19 specifically - whereas before it was heaped in with all Coronavirus deaths (there's 6x different strains?)
    Here's a link showing it split out - but it's a few weeks old now https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health...7r6Ps0upcudPYA

    And attached is a screen shot from the CDC. What is interesting is the fact that it is saying that hospitalisation rates (not death) of 65+ are similar for a high flu season.
    The UK "talk" was that it is the 65+ that it T-Bones.

    And the attached (RENAVE) Spanish breakdown shows that too - it shows 70>79 @24.2% and 80+ @53%.
    What is interesting about Spain - the attached is both the Woldometer (Spanish Gov) supplied figures for 3rd April and also the lower part is RENAVE dept - the official Spanish National Center for Epidemiology.
    They (RENAVE) were providing daily charts and were adamant they were accurate - but a BIG difference to the Worldometer figures (as can be seen here 3,953 deaths against Worldometer 12,641).
    Anyway, for whatever reason they don't post figures now.


    The problem with all of this - is accuracy and standardization of reporting.

    In the UK, here's a gov spokesman at a gov press conference explaining how death certificates are written out

    https://www.facebook.com/10001087779...?fref=mentions
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails capture.jpg   cdc.jpg  

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    ...In NYC, for example, nobody is a confirmed coronavirus death unless they died in a hospital AND were tested.
    Anybody who dies at home doesnt count.
    I don't think that's accurate.

    Changes in United States Data following the new CDC guidelines on "Case" and "Death" definition

    Following new CDC guidelines: "As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

    A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19" [source]

    This change is a further example of one of the many reasons why the label "confirmed cases" (used by some to designate total cases) is incorrect (see definitions for more details). The US CDC (and Worldometer) has always used the label "Total Cases." Canada is another example where the "total number includes publicly reported confirmed and probable cases [source]

    On April 14, New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source].

    From April 14 onward, New York City has provided - and will continue to provide - the updated number of probable deaths in its daily reports.

    Changes in US Data following new CDC guidelines on "Case" and "Death" definition (April 14, 2020) - Worldometer

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    I don't understand why you financial wizards heap your vitriol on oltrt. He champions a Grasshopper vs. Ant philosophy very much like Edison's and Ford's. Sure, if you're retired and your pursuit of happiness revolves around futures trading or the like, you probably have a starkly different worldview from somebody who's obviously driven to survive and prosper in a machining business in the face of no matter what adversity. I'm here to confirm that the willingness to work unpaid rather than give up may sound like a Kamikaze tactic but it actually works if you can hang in there long enough. Once you've been the Last Man Standing after a few recessions you will have learned how to prepare and what to do, and that self-confidence is earned and not illusory. He may seem brash to you, but with his attitude I'm very glad he's not a competitor of mine. Just sayin'.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Oh yes it does.

    I say "The really important part though is to realize the Banks do not increase the money supply, the Fed does

    .....and you say its not like that in they UK, yet you paste a doc with a highlight point, that plainly confirms what I said! "The amount of money ultimately created in an economy depends on the monetary policy of the central bank"

    Don't get sucked into being manipulated by cranks. Its like arguing the car dealer sells corvettes not GM, .....so? GM determines how many Corvettes are out there, how many get sold. The only part that matters, and what I said, is the central bank controls the expansion of the money supply.

    I'm surprised you wouldn't know this stuff cold given your criticism of if and the promotion of "alternative" approaches to monetary policy. How can you be so sure its messed up when you don't understand it?
    No it doesnt mac.
    Youve dismissed anything that matters and highlighted the most conservative part of the BOE initial points.
    The multiplier needs an appropriate deposit in order to create a loan. The notion is the total amount of new credit possible is limited by the 'reserve' amount. Deposits create loans.
    The BOE bulletin describes an equity or capital 'buffer', this money is provided by investors - banks profits etc, its flexible and is not controlled by BOE. Leading upto the financial crash banks were found to be 30X and more, an impossible task if the MM were true and in the real world, BOE didnt exactly have an iron grip on the money supply with interest rates. It was after the event that BOE implemented QE, the tail wags the dog. Basel III apparently was when they moved to 'limit' credit creation, equity 10%. When that equity is flexible its hardly a limit that counts for much. Loans create deposits

    I came from the MM theory. I was persuaded to at least look into things by outfits like positive money - new economics foundation, hardly cranks by anyones measure. When BOE put out paper that confirms their book and what theyd been saying, its hard to ignore, for me at least.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Oh yes it does.

    I say "The really important part though is to realize the Banks do not increase the money supply, the Fed does

    .....and you say its not like that in they UK, yet you paste a doc with a highlight point, that plainly confirms what I said! "The amount of money ultimately created in an economy depends on the monetary policy of the central bank"

    Don't get sucked into being manipulated by cranks. Its like arguing the car dealer sells corvettes not GM, .....so? GM determines how many Corvettes are out there, how many get sold. The only part that matters, and what I said, is the central bank controls the expansion of the money supply.

    I'm surprised you wouldn't know this stuff cold given your criticism of if and the promotion of "alternative" approaches to monetary policy. How can you be so sure its messed up when you don't understand it?
    It’s been at least 10 years since I read up on the way money is created. And while it’s true what you say about the creation of money on the Fed Reserve level....BANKS DO CREATE MONEY.
    Every time a person pays an interest charged on a credit card or an automobile or even interest on housing....then that sum of the interests payments is very much created out of thin air. The Federal Reserve tracts the money created by Central Banks. But it’s actually a bit harder to track credit cards. In the US and Europe....credit card interest money creation is a pretty large sum which really isn’t tracked. At least that’s what I remember.

    It’s really a fascinating thing. Money creation..And Bretton Woods. FDR was a genius. He understood money....and if Britton wanted the USA to send it’s young men to save Europe....then we wanted to be the Worlds Reserve Currency.

    But....if my memory serves me...I think the Fed does track housing interest payments.
    One could spend a lifetime learning “Money Creation” and the dollar. Another interesting thing is that until 1970....the dollar was linked to Gold. Countries with huge Gold resources had more reserves and could lend more money. When the money gets lent....interest is created out of thin air. Anyway.....all of the crap is above my pay grade. It’s complicated crap.....yet the big key to it all is that the USA has incredible gold reserves. Much more than any other nation. But when we had a run on Fort Knox...the USA cut off the Gold /Dollar......and we went to a Petro/Dollar. And....all transactions were still in dollars. Being the World’s reserve currency is a huge prize

    Anyway....below is a copy /paste which sums it up.. There are tons of books on This stuff. Graduate students write thesis’s on dollar creation. Like I said....it’s above my pay grade.

    After the end of World War II, the US dollar replaced the Pound as the world’s reserve currency. It was given this status by treaty following the Bretton Woods Agreement, formulated in July 1944. As a part of this agreement the US agreed to exchange the US dollar for gold at the rate of $35 per ounce of gold.(7)

    However in the 1960s the US created more and more money to pay for the Vietnam War and President Johnson’s War on Poverty. This led to a situation in which the volume of US dollars in circulation was greater than its supply of gold. France and a few other countries recognized this and began asking for gold in exchange for US dollars. The US supply of gold dropped from 20,000 tons in 1958 to 8,000 tons in 1970. Rather than re-evaluate the US dollar at a higher exchange rate, the US decided in September 1971 to go off the gold standard, so it would no longer exchange the US dollar for gold. Tyler Durden of the blog Zero Hedge estimates that at the time the true exchange rate for gold would have been $400 per ounce. Thus the US dollar had in fact devalued by a factor of 10. Using these figures, 1971 $1 was worth a little less than $0.10 or 10 cents.(8) Now gold is trading in a range from US$1850 to US$1870 ounce, and some think it is being artificially forced down by the large US banks. Is gold now worth more than it was in 1944, or is the US dollar worth less?
    US ABANDONS THE GOLD STANDARD, INTRODUCES THE US DOLLAR AS A FIAT CURRENCY
    The US set up the current world wide financial system in 1971 after they stopped exchanging US dollars for gold. Because in this new system the US dollar is no longer fixed at an exchange rate for gold, it is called a “fiat” currency. Fiat currency is money which derives its value from government regulation or law, in this case the determination of the US to require any purchase of crude oil anywhere in the world to be paid for in US dollars. The system has been explained as follows: “Today’s money is not backed by gold. It is now backed by nothing at all, except our trust in the monetary system.”(9) However this is a rather superficial assessment of the workings of the US dollar as a fiat reserve currency for world trade. Here we see a more sober account: “This ‘trust’ itself is backed by coercion (the world’s dependency on oil) and ultimately by the U.S military.”(10) In individual countries a government can enforce the use of its fiat currency by law. There is no such law that covers the world as a whole, so in the end the US must use political and/or military force to make countries use the US dollar for international trade in oil and other items.


    THE ORIGIN OF THE PETRODOLLAR SYSTEM
    The role of reserve currency for the US fiat currency came about because of the Petrodollar system. It was put together during the “oil crisis” or the “Energy Crisis” in the early 1970s. In response to the US move to break the connection between the dollar and gold, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began discussing the viability of pricing oil on a basket of different currencies. However the US quickly realized that in such a system the US dollar would no longer be the one, dominant currency for world trade. It would cease to be the world’s reserve currency. Instead the US suggested to Saudi Arabia that all its crude oil must be paid for in US dollars, and eventually all OPEC members agreed.(11)

    Around this same time there was an increase in tension and military confrontation between Israel and the Arab states. Because of US aid to Israel, OPEC raised the price of crude oil, cut production levels and then introduced an oil embargo on the US and other countries in 1973. The price of crude oil rose from $3 per barrel to $12 per barrel, and increase of 400%.(12)

    Graph of oil price changes 1970-2006(13)

    While the world saw these events arising from an antagonism between OPEC and the US, many believe that the situation was manipulated by the US so the Arab countries in OPEC would take the blame for the massive increase in the price of crude oil. In fact, the major oil companies worked with OPEC to raise the price of crude, which meant that they would also increase their profits. At the same time the US government also agreed to allow the major oil companies to form a world-wide monopoly or cartel for crude oil. These policies have continued until the present day. This means that there is no “free market” for oil. The price of oil is set worldwide by the major oil companies. With this policy the nature of worldwide capitalism was changed. The key virtue of capitalism is supposed to be “free” competition between independent firms taking risks which will drive innovation and lead to falling prices. Under a monopoly system, there is no risk, there is no competition, and nothing to stop ever increasing prices. Politicians love to praise the virtues of capitalism, but never explain that we no longer live in a real capitalist system.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    I don't understand why you financial wizards heap your vitriol on oltrt. He champions a Grasshopper vs. Ant philosophy very much like Edison's and Ford's. Sure, if you're retired and your pursuit of happiness revolves around futures trading or the like, you probably have a starkly different worldview from somebody who's obviously driven to survive and prosper in a machining business in the face of no matter what adversity. I'm here to confirm that the willingness to work unpaid rather than give up may sound like a Kamikaze tactic but it actually works if you can hang in there long enough. Once you've been the Last Man Standing after a few recessions you will have learned how to prepare and what to do, and that self-confidence is earned and not illusory. He may seem brash to you, but with his attitude I'm very glad he's not a competitor of mine. Just sayin'.
    That's your opinion Oldwrench and you're entitled to it.

    However. here's mine - I live well over 5000 miles from California, and can smell the bullshit from my back yard.

    oltrt may well be a machinist etc etc, but he's definitely a stooge of some description.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Initially the clampdown of the spread. No planes etc.
    But for a while now it's become very apparent that a lot of the figures are pure made up. Not just here - look at New York where they've admitted to nearly 5x over inflating the qty's.
    So to me it's simple - if your area is free, and you have restrictions on movement between areas, at least let people go get post if they want to.
    I just read - Friday they did allow us out to walk (I thought it was from this week) - maximum 1KM from our home. And allotted time slot. Again, huge fines if you're found further out or not in the correct allotted time slot.
    Day 51 here now
    LIar


    NY numbers are as much as 30 percent UNDER reality

    there is zero, zero evidence of overstating case numbersnewyorkstatedeathsflucovid.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    I don't know of any credible school of thought that thinks a deflationary currency could work, If you think it through how could it be otherwise? As you point out, the GS would be deflationary. If you agree with that, and agree it can't stay 1:1, whats the point?
    One way or the other if change is too much then it gets tough. No one thought oil might drop in price. Our fracking changed the market. Besides Iran and Venezuela rely on oil to have money. They likely are well stocked with money anyway.


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