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Thread: Recession?

  1. #2561
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    where did you anchor the left side? My criticism of this is you could put a line on that chart in all kinds of different positions and angles depending what points you pick. For example if you picked the low march and then the low that you say didn't touch, you'd have a trend line was clearly broken. Too arbitrary...and if you don't get the answer you want, zoom in or out a little to make more points available
    I will post a chart which demonstrates what the H&S pattern represents- it is a trend break and the shape is simply an artifact of price rolling over.

    Trends are not arbitrary- they are simple linear movements.
    When they reverse the three peaks H&S quite naturally at many trend reversal- tops and bottoms.

    Support and resistance is not in any way arbitrary.
    There are literally thousands of examples of price bouncing neatly off these lines.
    The problem is recognizing useful pivots at these levels in real real time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    . . . . . . . . . . . . . ?
    Your rambling rants.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    I will post a chart which demonstrates what the H&S pattern represents- it is a trend break and the shape is simply an artifact of price rolling over.

    Trends are not arbitrary- they are simple linear movements.
    When they reverse the three peaks H&S quite naturally at many trend reversal- tops and bottoms.
    I'm not sure which one of us knows more about it.... I pursued it for years. It doesn't change the fact that its at least 50% reading tea leaves. A few arbitrary changes on where you decide the line connects to will give a different answer....all underscored by the fact that TA got blown away by a radical fundamental change.

    It is useful, and I do know the theory fairly well. Still, you can mostly see what you want to see

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    I think you are falling down on an attribution to stocks issue.

    Graph any time series event you can think of- the rise and fall of the Roman Empire, heat during the passage of a day or year, the growth rate of an organism on a finite resource such as yeast in flour, fruit flies in a bell jar or a bacterium on agar.
    Change over time is information.
    That information can inform trends.

    Black swan events- they don't trouble me at all- its like saying I might be caught in a fire at the grocery store.
    Risk- what else is new in life.

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    I recognize I have already lost my audience but to complete the thought.

    The topping action of GE is a perfect example of a H&S top in a stock while the front face exponential growth is a perfect analogue for fruit flies growth in a constrained environment as all companies are- such growth is certain to fail and top as the case was here.
    TA is nothing but a search for meaning in a time series of performance- the chart provides that information.


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    Again GE- using classic TA to inform price progression.
    Again- this isn’t “seeing what you want to see”
    That is actual price printing a nearly perfect trend and reversal H&S.
    Again- I don’t particularly like the pattern and think it is for novice traders but it is present in a good many reversals.




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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    .....

    If we really did distribute 3 trillion a month to people, like the 40 % of the working people that used to earn $18,000 a year or less, then maybe we would see some real impact. But giving it to Airlines, so they can give million dollar bonuses to CEOs isnt going to show much on the GDP.
    Some of that must surely "trickle down " to the working man.
    If last year you got a four million bonus and this year you may only get one you might not buy as much stuff and cut back.
    But if the loans and such keep you up top with the previsions year,.. why not keep sending on gardens, boats and airplanes?
    Yes these people make an insane amount of money but any cut back at all and they watch the pennies like Scrooge on steroids. It's weird to see first hand.
    In good times those way up there spend, spend, spend,. This moves money out for all to some point. In a downturn they stop and everyone down the chain takes it hard.
    Not a fan of such trickle down theory but it does have a impact.
    In good times vs now ask to borrow $1000 from a person who has more money than they can ever spend.
    You have to pump all sides or it falls apart.
    Not fair and not right by many views but is the real world we live in.

    The current deal is so sweet for my guys. No need for me to apply for a that loan or free money. It would hurt my team and those I care about.
    Most would be making less or breaking even if I call them back now. I won't do that to them.
    Weird or maybe not thing, they continually come into the shop just to shoot the shit and see others.
    I feel like I'm running a daily card game parlor with extra money floating, I should ask for a cut off the top.
    This gets stranger still when I'm on the floor running work I have during such. My guys and gals are all over "I'll go do this for you".
    No, you are off work. No way I fiddle fart with your check.
    Come in the door any time you care, this sort of home and for sure you are welcome 24/7 but you are not on the clock.

    Welcome to the "New Normal" and all this a bit out there but I have to do, protect and look out for my people. If that means gaming the system so be it.
    All the old rules gone. Not sure how or who pays for it but God bless that new or fake money.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    Your rambling rants.

    The " . . . . . . .?" I posted isn't a rant. It's questioning your conclusion that Otrit is a young man. Now, you did say as you picture him in your mind. But, still, that would be pretty much calling him a liar.

    He's been telling us his key to success has been holding and never ever selling Blue Chips forever for about a year now. How it's proven recession proof. That he's loaded up on cheap machine tools in previous recessions and plans to do it again. And even how back in the 70's the Japanese couldn't make decent stamping dies.

    Could be you're right and this really is Otrit's first rodeo. I doubt it. Perhaps Otrit will tell us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    The " . . . . . . .?" I posted isn't a rant. It's questioning your conclusion that Otrit is a young man. Now, you did say "in your mind." But, still, that would be pretty much calling him a liar.

    He's been telling us his key to success has been holding and never selling Blue Chips forever for about a year now. How it's proven his recession proof. And that he's loaded up on cheap machine tools recession after recession and plans to do it again. And even how back in the 70's the Japanese couldn't make decent dies. Even just one recession back (2008) makes him something like a 12 year old shop owner and Blue Chip investor, now a young man. And lying about any knowledge of the tool and die industry decades ago.
    Pete,
    you are another one that is not in business. You have sat on your ass for many years, get to work now; while you have a chance to survive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Pete,
    you are another one that is not in business. You have sat on your ass for many years, get to work now; while you have a chance to survive.

    I am working, Otrit. Just not to feather my own nest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by countryboy1966 View Post
    Lack of preparedness? What do you think should have been done differently? . . .
    Some answers (medical journal Lancet):

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31140-5/fulltext

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    CDC sets the priority of their spending for the president to approve. President has to trust the CDC to appropriately execute their own budget and congress approves as well. At the time, 13% of the budget or 1.1b was set for zootonic diseases and world health. Additionaly... I think the CDC having a 8+ billion budget is pretty wasteful for what is received in return.

    Do you honestly think if the budget was even doubled, that there would be any less death? No.

    This is all unprecedented and anyone except a total dictator in a socialist setting that took this seriously early on would have similar results. Many many civil rights are being violated and many more would have had to been violated in order to get in front of this.

    No matter who is at the wheel, its a balance between death, economic impact and civil rights.....What is the countries social norms going to accept? A little bit of rights lost, a little bit of $ loss and some death....

    Of course...with that said, sprinkle in a metric ton of assholes politicizing the situation (take this medical journal for example that wrote that article 4 months into this....hindsight is 20/20...Written by Doctors that have to "practice" medicine) which is the most horrific part of this all IMO.

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    [QUOTE=PeteM;3549844]The " . . . . . . .?" I posted isn't a rant. It's questioning your conclusion that Otrit is a young man. Now, you did say as you picture him in your mind. But, still, that would be pretty much calling him a liar.

    He's been telling us his key to success has been holding and never ever selling Blue Chips forever for about a year now. How it's proven recession proof. That he's loaded up on cheap machine tools in previous recessions and plans to do it again. And even how back in the 70's the Japanese couldn't make decent stamping dies.

    Could be you're right and this really is Otrit's first rodeo. I doubt it. Perhaps Otrit will tell us.



    Pete that is much clearer than what you typed. Is it not? You are just playing Pete. That answer is need to know.

    Pete I am not calling anyone a liar. Younger might be younger to me. You are now leveraging what I said on a post to bait Otrlt .

    He has been very consistent . He did not push anyone to do like him in investing either really. Pete he will very likely never tell you any details because your disposition toward him has been hostile. How about just accept what he says and stop reading things in that are not there.

    He will tell you what he tells you but he does not need to elaborate or clear up anything that he does not want to.

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    Time for a bear thesis chart to see if price action is in agreement.....:

    Fed warns of ‘significant’ hit to asset prices if pandemic grows | Bond Buyer

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    . .. Pete he will very likely never tell you any details because your disposition toward him has been hostile. How about just accept what he says and stop reading things in that are not there. . .
    Just pointing out that it was you who was likely "reading things in that are not there" in terms of Otrit being a young man, new to all this. I personally don't care if he's a youngster like you picture him or an experienced toolmaker working away in his own world. I'd bet he's not a youngster.

    As for Otrit, I pretty much like the guy. He's likely a fine tool builder and his penchant for buying and holding the stocks of good companies is one I agree with. I do, however, point out when some of his firm beliefs are likely fantasy - such as the 30,000 down back in the summer, a Blue Chip stock never going bad, and the US having the only decent tool and die makers in the world. Or, how borrowing a trillion bucks a year as being wonderful for the long-term economy or anyone who's retired and working instead with kids as useless if they're not making more money for themselves.

    You won't find me calling him names. Just pointing out when he's got either the facts or the future likely wrong.

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    Hey look on the bright side....

    5a9a0523-b670-43c9-a939-bda5834c60ed.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Hey look on the bright side....

    5a9a0523-b670-43c9-a939-bda5834c60ed.jpg

    TR - I think you've just become the Kurt Vonnegut of chart humor.

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    I just have to say I have a lot of people to thank.
    My mom, the virus....

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Just pointing out that it was you who was likely "reading things in that are not there" in terms of Otrit being a young man, new to all this. I personally don't care if he's a youngster like you picture him or an experienced toolmaker working away in his own world. I'd bet he's not a youngster.

    As for Otrit, I pretty much like the guy. He's likely a fine tool builder and his penchant for buying and holding the stocks of good companies is one I agree with. I do, however, point out when some of his firm beliefs are likely fantasy - such as the 30,000 down back in the summer, a Blue Chip stock never going bad, and the US having the only decent tool and die makers in the world. Or, how borrowing a trillion bucks a year as being wonderful for the long-term economy or anyone who's retired and working instead with kids as useless if they're not making more money for themselves.

    You won't find me calling him names. Just pointing out when he's got either the facts or the future likely wrong.
    Pete,
    We are the best at Toolmaking, the US owns this skill. Most American Blue Chip companies are well aware of that, except Apple.

    As far as Dow 30,000... On July the 4th 2021, we'll be knocking on 35,000's door. The timid and fearful will watch in disgust.

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    “I’m really driven by distraction by how much the 70s are the ugly, rough, authentic draft of everything since then. The Sixties increasingly seem like they were the last gasp of a previous era, not the beginning of the new. The Seventies are foundational. “
    -Paul


    “It seems like a lifetime, or at least a Main Era — the kind of peak that never comes again. San Francisco in the middle sixties was a very special time and place to be a part of. Maybe it meant something. Maybe not, in the long run... but no explanation, no mix of words or music or memories can touch that sense of knowing that you were there and alive in that corner of time and the world. Whatever it meant...

    There was madness in any direction, at any hour. You could strike sparks anywhere. There was a fantastic universal sense that whatever we were doing was right, that we were winning...

    And that, I think, was the handle — that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or military sense; we didn't need that. Our energy would simply PREVAIL. There was no point in fighting — on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave...

    So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high water mark — that place where the wave finally broke, and rolled back.”
    -Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas


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