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Thread: Recession?

  1. #2581
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    Well it’s official.
    I am bear again.
    Or simple am still bear as has been the case for two years...a5561004-6713-4a98-a452-07a749d5d8d0.jpeg

    I’m happy I sold out last week and will reduce further and look for shorts.

    The chart is tea leaves- I’ll post the bull and bear thesis..

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    Stock like apple is back up there, even with store closures and loss of sales, when does it get reported? would be a good question it seems the market is ahead of the company, or with the huge stimulus was the dollar devalued so you cannot really see the dip? in the chart.

    Lots of funny money being pumped around by gov over there and here too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Well it’s official.
    I am bear again.
    Or simple am still bear as has been the case for two years...a5561004-6713-4a98-a452-07a749d5d8d0.jpeg

    I’m happy I sold out last week and will reduce further and look for shorts.

    The chart is tea leaves- I’ll post the bull and bear thesis..
    Be careful here Triboat,
    It would be wise to not kick a cornered dog, you can certainly loose your foot.. but maybe your whole leg.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Be careful here Triboat,
    It would be wise to not kick a cornered dog, you can certainly loose your foot.. but maybe your whole leg.
    Thanks!
    It is easy to be wrong with things.
    Survival is made by how we respond.


    I will see if I can post some charts today- as far as I recall neither bear or bull seem dominant.
    Calling the action might be as Mcgyver says - “reading into it”.
    My bear is based on observed sentiment- we all know how reliable that is lol..

    But....
    It appears there is reason for caution:

    Fed warns of 'significant' financial vulnerabilities from pandemic - Reuters

    I’m still holding my airlines so far and they are gradually building profits so the entry was good.
    I guess if they seem to hold I will build a stronger position.
    If they fail I am out to await a lower entry.

    I’m not using any leverage and playing to survive..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post

    The has has to include long term chart stuff to back up but here is the short term chart:


    Note on the outcome of that chart- not a bad call...



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    “ When the US Dollar gets stronger, it takes fewer dollars to buy any commodity that is priced in $USD. When the US Dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase the same commodity.
    The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value.
    When the dollar gets strong, gold appears to go down, and vice versa. That accounts for part of the fluctuations that we see in the value of gold.
    The other part is an actual increase in the supply or demand for gold. If the price is higher when being measured not only in US Dollars, but also in Euros, Pounds Sterling, Japanese Yen, and every other major currency, then we know the gold demand is higher and it has actually increased in value.
    Consequently, if gold is higher in US Dollars while at the same time cheaper in every other currency, then we can conclude that the US Dollar has weakened, and that gold has actually lost value in all other currencies. But the price, because it is being quoted in $USD will be higher and give the illusion of gold becoming more valuable. In such a case the devaluation of gold, due to increased supply on the market, is camouflaged by a weakened US Dollar.”

    Kitco Gold Index | How US Dollar Impacts Value of Gold | KITCO

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Note on the outcome of that chart- not a bad call...


    Very well done Triboat,
    The industrial's in the US are showing some strength, there appears to be a continued trend here that will surprise many.

    "MADE IN THE USA" is becoming a rally cry for some forgotten industries.

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    Otrlt the talking heads were grumbling about the small caps rally today.
    Above my pay grade..

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    So many do not like the rally.
    Much big money seems to be sitting it out as cash.
    Yet we have the big gains.
    A strange mix that I do not think has ever been seen in which case all the old rules go out the window.
    Do we ignore the current consumer spending and profit reports?
    I like the glass half full so much but am very worried about sales income.
    At some point one has to make money and not go red.
    Aero and auto which are big parts both of employment bleeding hard and deep right now. There is a limit.

    I see let some some smaller fail and an a injection to help others. As done in the past.
    The game is afoot, it is brutal and takes no prisoners and has no love or respect.
    Bob

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    2cc3d952-5f55-402a-9527-50d7d7448383.jpg

    ............

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    A thoughtful bit on market risk:

    The Three Sides of Risk * Collaborative Fund

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    Picking winners...

    (For those in the cheap seats this miss wasn’t about a single company is a sector which is thriving, it was missing a decades long sector shift)

    Business success is largely about timing.
    B level players come into the game late...

    f1e1ece9-4909-4638-9a7c-d1a217f04d12.jpg

    “ We think that this whole situation of the pandemic will accelerate the decline of the coal industry,”
    Coronavirus lockdowns give renewable energy big gains, coal falters | Fortune

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    A thoughtful bit on market risk:

    The Three Sides of Risk * Collaborative Fund

    Thought-provoking and thoughtful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    “ We think that this whole situation of the pandemic will accelerate the decline of the coal industry,”
    Energy Industry: we can't figure out where to put all this damn oil.
    Also Energy Industry: wanna buy some coal?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    “ When the US Dollar gets stronger, it takes fewer dollars to buy any commodity that is priced in $USD. When the US Dollar gets weaker it takes more dollars to purchase the same commodity.
    The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value.
    When the dollar gets strong, gold appears to go down, and vice versa. That accounts for part of the fluctuations that we see in the value of gold.
    The other part is an actual increase in the supply or demand for gold. If the price is higher when being measured not only in US Dollars, but also in Euros, Pounds Sterling, Japanese Yen, and every other major currency, then we know the gold demand is higher and it has actually increased in value.
    Consequently, if gold is higher in US Dollars while at the same time cheaper in every other currency, then we can conclude that the US Dollar has weakened, and that gold has actually lost value in all other currencies. But the price, because it is being quoted in $USD will be higher and give the illusion of gold becoming more valuable. In such a case the devaluation of gold, due to increased supply on the market, is camouflaged by a weakened US Dollar.”

    Kitco Gold Index | How US Dollar Impacts Value of Gold | KITCO
    I was really into following gold back when it was 250 and played it for a while....riding that meteoric rise to 1500. It was really a no brainer since America entered two wars....and wars are expensive. Just plain as day that the dollar would suffer and gold was going to rise.
    Did okay....and even having followed many “expert” newsletters....kind of realized we were going to have a credit crisis. Long story short....as much as I thought I knew....I got it totally wrong in the end because what I missed is this. Bear Stearns and others crashed and I though I was just brilliant to be again a gold bug. What I missed was that gold would take a huge dive during a credit / cash crisis because everyone holding gold needed to raise cash to pay margin calls and such. My moral of the story is that no matter how smart we think we are we will never be able to foresee the many unknowns of high finance. It’s a risky game so don’t get too greedy. Know when to fold them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    I was really into following gold back when it was 250 and played it for a while....riding that meteoric rise to 1500. It was really a no brainer since America entered two wars....and wars are expensive. Just plain as day that the dollar would suffer and gold was going to rise.
    Did okay....and even having followed many “expert” newsletters....kind of realized we were going to have a credit crisis. Long story short....as much as I thought I knew....I got it totally wrong in the end because what I missed is this. Bear Stearns and others crashed and I though I was just brilliant to be again a gold bug. What I missed was that gold would take a huge dive during a credit / cash crisis because everyone holding gold needed to raise cash to pay margin calls and such. My moral of the story is that no matter how smart we think we are we will never be able to foresee the many unknowns of high finance. It’s a risky game so don’t get too greedy. Know when to fold them.
    I don’t like gold.
    Basically I hate the ideal of a fear trade and the ideal of folks flocking to gold goes against me best instincts.

    My take is bullion ought to be $400 to $600 USD
    Up here I look and think people are crazy but the plain fact is the market is what is- if it can carry at these levels that is the present price awarded by market and is correct.

    I’d like to understand the trade better though.
    I’m such a dummy that dollar value fluctuations as a key underpinning for price sort of slips by me that’s why I posted the above.

    Back a few years ago it was all talk of the Chinese rebased currency on gold and a billion citizens buying up physical gold and $5000 on the near horizon was the talk.

    I was the same then and watched the $1000 level for failure.

    Honestly I think it would do everyone good if they forgot about gold.
    Hoarding seems like exactly the wrong sentiment for a healthy society.

    It’s like ammo- the crap is dirt cheap to produce and yet we get these weird runs on the supply and prices run up during the least bit of problems.

    A bunker mentality makes it tough to enjoy the day- you know smell the roses.

    Everyone hoarding ammo makes it tougher to just hit the range on a nice day and work on target shooting.
    I guess I shouldn’t care about gold prices as I don’t have the first use for it but it sort of bothers me when prices are high- seems like a sure sign of people being bent out of shape.

    Gold price is in consolidation for the last month and a half.
    Which way it gonna break.....?

    It’s like the damn gopher or marmot or whatever it is people watch as a bellwether for the chance of the coming spring.
    Let’s hope the damn price takes a piss.
    Screw gold- let’s get back to living.

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    Totally agree. Personally I think it’s all crazy. Don’t get me wrong....I worry about a break down in the system and there being a problem with food supply with law and order. I lived through Katrina. I get it that we are always 2-days away from anarchy. That said...I have 5 pounds of dry beets and five pounds of dry rice. Add a 1000 rounds of 9mm.
    If it gets worse than that so be it.....I’ll accept we’re screwed. But I’ll be damned if I will move out to the middle of nowhere and become a prepper. I think it’s insanity. I don’t want to live like that at this stage of my life. I like living in the city. I want to see government work and society thrive. I don’t want to see it go to hell and don’t want to prepare to live that way. Screw it.
    There’s an old saying....” I’ve spent my life worrying about things which never came true. “

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    Totally agree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    ...I have 5 pounds of dry beets and five pounds of dry rice. Add a 1000 rounds of 9mm.
    Hope you like to eat ammunition. Five pounds of rice, that's *it*? And I hate beets.

    There's a story: you can live three minutes without air. Three days without water. And three weeks without food.

    I suspect we here could live three *months* without food! In any event the house has a pantry and after taking stock,
    we decided that yes, it would be pretty boring at the end, but three months looks possible.


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