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Thread: Recession?

  1. #2601
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    So I have just started reading Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Philip Fisher.

    It’s been some years since I had done much reading of the investment books but am surprised I missed this one.
    My prediction is that it will be a very good read.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    Hope you like to eat ammunition. Five pounds of rice, that's *it*? And I hate beets.

    There's a story: you can live three minutes without air. Three days without water. And three weeks without food.

    I suspect we here could live three *months* without food! In any event the house has a pantry and after taking stock,
    we decided that yes, it would be pretty boring at the end, but three months looks possible.
    Damned autocorrect. Dried Red Beans. Personally, I do like red beans and rice but no, I hope to never HAVE TO eat red beans and rice for 3 weeks. If it gets worse than 3 weeks without being able to buy food... time to check out for me. I just don’t have that much fight left in me anymore.

    Kind of like all the damned fools who built bomb shelters during the Cold War. Like life would be worth a damned.....worth living after the USA and Soviets launched Armageddon on each other....
    Thank you, but no thanks. You can have that world.
    Last edited by tim9lives; 05-22-2020 at 08:08 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    we are seeing lots of that money just being parked- a lot of people who got the PPP loans are afraid to spend it, because their employees wont come back, because there are no customers, and because the rules are so complicated, if they screw up, they have to pay it back- and they are already not just broke, but heavily in debt.
    If you got a PPP loan, under the rules you have eight weeks to spend it on the qualifying items (wages, rents, utilities) or it's not forgivable. If you park it, you'll owe it (albeit at a stupid low interest).

    The whole Rube Goldberg machine that was the american economy just stopped- and the people who had $30,000 a month commercial rents, based on income that isnt there any more, laid off 40 million people in a month.
    That is very much what happened after the '29 crash. Lost cash flow meant debt couldn't be serviced. Although Hoover rightly pointed out that the crash had not destroyed any physical production capacity or infrastructure, the larger elements of industry were all so leveraged that it wasn't sustainable. The question that remains to be answered is, just how many small businesses are sustainable without a line of credit or a big loan? We are damn sure going to find out.


    I can't speak for all the Taylor Mason types on here, but in the world of making products with machines it's shaping up to be Last Man Standing. Knock on wood, we've been shipping about 10% above normal for the past six weeks, which I'm at a loss to explain. Based on previous business lulls, I'm ascribing it to the anticipation of a springback and a wish to avoid the shortages that normally accompany a pent-up demand. But I don't know. I'm just glad I didn't have a hot dog cart.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    Damned autocorrect. Dried Red Beans. Personally, I do like red beans and rice but no, I hope to never HAVE TO eat red beans and rice for 3 weeks. If it gets worse than 3 weeks without being able to buy food... time to check out for me. I just don’t have that much fight left in me anymore.

    Kind of like all the damned fools who built bomb shelters during the Cold War. Like life would be worth a damned.....worth living after the USA and Soviets launched Armageddon on each other....
    Thank you, but no thanks. You can have that world.
    Just so long as you've also got at least 5lb of chillis and about 50lb of grindable beef to go with the beans and rice. With those, the beans and rice are just about edible.

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    This is the most recent words of wisdom of Ray Dalio, this is the same fool that "soiled himself" in last month's market decline.

    "The days of U.S. hegemony are numbered and China is waiting in the wings", argues Ray Dalio, in his most recent missive on LinkedIn.

    ‘As you can see the United States is now the most powerful empire by not much, it is in relative decline, Chinese power is rapidly rising, and no other powers come close.’


    Ray may be a wealthy hedgefunder, but he should shut his pie hole when it pertains to US Industry, he clearly doesn't understand US Business.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Ray may be a wealthy hedgefunder, but he should shut his pie hole when it pertains to US Industry, he clearly doesn't understand US Business.
    yeah, I mean why would a intelligent, informed, educated, plugged in person in the business of economic and financial analysis with of lots insight and research resources even remotely understand the whole nation's business environment as well as the likes of you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    yeah, I mean why would a intelligent, informed, educated, plugged in person in the business of economic and financial analysis with of lots insight and research resources even remotely understand the whole nation's business environment as well as the likes of you?
    Because Mygyver,
    I work for a living, and I did not loose a penny last month. Ray, and fools that think like him have a bear market in their laps.

    Meanwhile, smart investors an business people are moving forward. Fresh new DOW highs... can happen in 1 week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Because Mygyver,
    I work for a living, and I did not loose a penny last month. Ray, and fools that think like him have a bear market in their laps.

    Meanwhile, smart investors an business people are moving forward. Fresh new DOW highs... can happen in 1 week.
    Good god, you are boring.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Because Mygyver,
    I work for a living, and I did not loose a penny last month..
    Wait until the press hears. "Man who works and didn't lose money says...." Like that somehow puts you in unique position to have a superior view of all of American and its business sectors.

    yeah, and Ray's the fool

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    This is the most recent words of wisdom of Ray Dalio, this is the same fool that "soiled himself" in last month's market decline.

    "The days of U.S. hegemony are numbered and China is waiting in the wings", argues Ray Dalio, in his most recent missive on LinkedIn.

    ‘As you can see the United States is now the most powerful empire by not much, it is in relative decline, Chinese power is rapidly rising, and no other powers come close.’


    Ray may be a wealthy hedgefunder, but he should shut his pie hole when it pertains to US Industry, he clearly doesn't understand US Business.
    Poisoning the well. Replying factually to his specific points would improve your argument.

    From where I sit, knowing little about the stock market and high finance, Ray looks a lot more credible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by neilho View Post
    Poisoning the well. Replying factually to his specific points would improve your argument.
    .
    This. Its why i push back on the parade of these silly posts, always some big bold blanket statement that is never ever supported with fact, logic, rational thought, reasons etc, even when you ask. Many here I disagree with, but I respect they have an argument for what they say so the overall quality of the place is good. Cheer leading otoh.....

    one hopes for a bit of stimulation, but who wants to spend leisure time reading fortune cookies?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Just so long as you've also got at least 5lb of chillis and about 50lb of grindable beef to go with the beans and rice. With those, the beans and rice are just about edible.
    Mark....I do understand your dislike of beans. That said....I also am totally convinced you have never had a plate of “red beans and rice “ from New Orleans. Let me tell you. We know how to turn a meal of beans into a pretty damned tasty meal. Sautéed onions some pepper’s.. Only meat needed is a smoked sausage...or better yet a good boudin sausage.
    Red Beans and Rice has been the traditional Monday meal of New Orleans for 100 years. Started because it was an easy meal for Monday’s which was also the traditional laundry day.
    But...once a week is all I want. If I was starving...then that’s different. I could go a few weeks on them. Beans do have protein. But....anarchy on the streets with no essential services.....no thanks. I’m not sure I want that kind of world nor do I have the fight in me to deal with it.
    Personally....I don’t think we’ll get to that. As bad as our Federal Government is today....I do have faith in the American masses. The front line workers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    ..... Fresh new DOW highs... can happen in 1 week.
    Heck nowhere to go but up eh? Or maybe not. Might go even lower.
    Past performance does not predict future events. Or have you invented a working time machine.

    If so could I please borrow it. Want to go back in time and undo various embarasing events.
    Safety not guaranteed.

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    Far a study of where to go from here I suggest studying a chart of the Great Depression.

    Just because the market rebounds a bit does not mean we are past the worse. The term Dead Cat Bounce comes to mind. And with 25 million plus on the unemployment lines....I seriously doubt we will see a V shaped recovery. Can the Fed save us. I suggest everyone watching Summers interview on this past Sundays 60 minutes. As he confidently puts it... The Fed has the power provided Congress doesn’t get in the way.
    Good luck everyone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    Far a study of where to go from here I suggest studying a chart of the Great Depression.
    Cliff notes version: ten year timeline.

    Good news is we're not in a depression. Yet. Stop spending, reign in the debt, go on a gold standard. Go on, dare ya.
    Ten years, then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    Far a study of where to go from here I suggest studying a chart of the Great Depression.

    Just because the market rebounds a bit does not mean we are past the worse. . . .Good luck everyone.
    However, the other precedent would be the three waves of Spanish Flu - lockdowns accompanying the last one - and the relatively quick rebound of the market.

    Should we respond sensibly, there's reason to believe we could do the same. Sad thing is we haven't responded all that sensibly. Our administration pretty much set a world record for denial, mismanagement, and bi-polar leadership (wear your masks - not, shelter till we get this under control - protest your lockdown, here's the cure or vaccine - oops, etc.). And we may be about to do the same on the economic front.

    I do think we're beginning to sort out the medical front; though late. I don't think we've figured out that when we go into debt to bail out anyone (fat cats or the poor), that we should aim to be sure the money is spent in a way that has a real ROI for our citizens and the nation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    I don't think we've figured out that when we go into debt to bail out anyone (fat cats or the poor), that we should aim to be sure the money is spent in a way that has a real ROI for our citizens and the nation.
    You can say that again. This is what, the third time in recent memory that we are fixing problems caused by too much leverage with more leverage? The problem is that our economy is essentially a house of cards and the ones in power are the most motivated to keep it from crashing down. You retirees are not likely to have it coming back to get you, but some of us aren't yet 30 and are very scared to see how irresponsible those at the top are getting just to kick the can down the road for a few more years. Every time we do this, it makes the eventual collapse more devastating.

    But hey, kick back, grab a drink and SPEND! If you ever run out just grab some debt, if you don't you'll be left behind!

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    Quote Originally Posted by tim9lives View Post
    Damned autocorrect. Dried Red Beans. Personally, I do like red beans and rice but no, I hope to never HAVE TO eat red beans and rice for 3 weeks. ...
    Hah. Suspect that at one time or another folks would be damn happy to have beets. Stalingrad, for one...

    We did actually do a rough inventory of our pantry when this all happened.

    1) rotate stock more.

    2) how old *is* that can of whatever.

    3) now storing two bins of dry cat food instead of one. Idea being we could in principle eat the cats if we had to....

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    Heck nowhere to go but up eh? Or maybe not. Might go even lower.
    Past performance does not predict future events. Or have you invented a working time machine.

    If so could I please borrow it. Want to go back in time and undo various embarasing events.
    Safety not guaranteed.
    This is exactly why the market behaves as it does. As I have said before; the market will do what it must to prove the majority wrong.

    that includes many of the fools that think we're going into a Depression.

    Better stock-up on rice and beans you sheepish idiots.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoxcarPete View Post
    You can say that again. This is what, the third time in recent memory that we are fixing problems caused by too much leverage with more leverage? The problem is that our economy is essentially a house of cards and the ones in power are the most motivated to keep it from crashing down. You retirees are not likely to have it coming back to get you, but some of us aren't yet 30 and are very scared to see how irresponsible those at the top are getting just to kick the can down the road for a few more years. Every time we do this, it makes the eventual collapse more devastating.

    But hey, kick back, grab a drink and SPEND! If you ever run out just grab some debt, if you don't you'll be left behind!
    Sorry to say but it is true one way or another the government rarely has done a very good job. Imagine seeing the trade going overseas for so long aided by the government. Then add to that H1B visas to a growing amount each year their call was “We can not find any workers they are not qualified we must pay everyone lower” Well Bill Gates and many brought them in like droves and we watched as American workers were taxed like hell and punished by declining opportunities. They were structural problems and bitterly intentional.

    What we ended up with as far as the survivors in the trade became like you see here those who constantly tear down their country no one remembers what America was like before Globalism. It started speeding up under Clinton and kept going until even presidents even believed there was nothing that would ever change it especially not any of the trade policies.

    Respect your country always. At least we have relative peace if we would just be a little or a lot more discerning about the wars we wage.


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