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Thread: Recession?

  1. #2641
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Why would you not draw line starting with the low 2009, in which case its clearly broken the tread line. Even as the line is drawn, its looks like its broken the trend line, tested would be more hovering about it, no?
    Yeah- that is a interesting thing to try to get a handle on the Dow.
    I've gone at every way possible in time frames out to a hundred years.

    That one above is log chart which I don't especially favor but as it was useful when I was being pissy with you about GE (and seemed to actually represent good control) I thought I would play around with it on the US30 contract.

    I don't like to discard anything on the chart but sometimes feel a hard peak or fall can be left out if subsequent price action seems to settle on a more moderate line..

    I keeping an eye on the index but it's almost just for fun as my individual stocks are what I follow closest.

    ZEN- what the hell.
    Not much to work with here.
    And graphene- talk about grasping at straws but what the hell- $5k put at the "bottom" who knows- it might be a couple of buck stock given a bit of time...

    This is charted in CND- chart is much more interesting in USD but I can't save from my platform.
    In USD it is much more the left half of a very symmetrical bowl decline.
    I think the exchange rate is throwing in those odd peaks to the top line..



    Change that- here is ZEN in USD:

    6b52e8da-7fab-4919-a906-6cfb66edb4b5.jpg

  2. #2642
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    This is the Dow futures contract in a linear graph:


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    And while we are waxing poetic about price- thirty years of Brent crude.
    If this were a stock chart I would say it's day had come and gone.
    For some reason I am still bull on crude...


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    And that hard story for GE - the rise and fall of a giant...

    The technical setup is the same- Phoenix anyone....


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    And if we wish to get really grim- take a look at that forefront slope on GE and compare it to say the current GDP growth plot for the US.
    I’d say charts don’t hold too little information- they contain too much...

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    Nope, the market works to fuck individuals over. Lesson in that for *you*.
    Your absolutely right Jim,
    The herd usually gets killed, I learned that lesson early on.

    A good example is today's action in airline stocks. It is obvious that they have a struggle ahead, but why are they moving up so hard?

    The reason; when investors, especially futures investors climb on board in mass, they are always on the wrong side, ALWAYS. The oil markets are a clear example of how dangerous it is too short equities.


    As I have always said, what is the least likely event to happen.... DOW 35,0000, Nasdaq is already knocking on fresh highs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Your absolutely right Jim,
    The herd usually gets killed, I learned that lesson early on.
    A wee story. True, the names have been changed.

    Call the two individuals Erling, and Klaus. Brilliant theoretical physicists. They figured out a scheme
    using Puts and Calls so they would make a killing no matter what the market did over the short term. They
    determined the only way to lose money would be if the market moved not one whit for a month.

    You can guess what happened. Yep they lost money.

    The market can take as long as it wants to do whatever it wants, while your liquidity goes to zero.
    From 20 feet away this looks the same as betting on the ponies.

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    ''Boeing job cuts start to hit nearly 13,000 workers''


    Ref Boeing job cuts start to hit nearly 13,000 workers - BBC News


    Unless of course it's fake news

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    Rolls Royce are planning up to 8,000 job cuts. Mostly in the UK.
    Maclaran (tiny in comparison) are planning 1,200. The only good news is that they can't do it while folks are on furlough, I think...

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    It is clear, many in the media are not comfortable with a economic rebound;

    CNBC "Squawk Box" anchors Andrew Ross Sorkin and Joe Kernen clashed on Wednesday. "Kernen suggested that Sorkin was being too pessimistic about the markets during a segment about the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's recent spikes. Sorkin, however, noted "a lot of smart people" have questioned how the stock market could be booming in the current state of the economy."


    There are lot's of smarty pants investors on Wall Street, and many of them are hoping for DOOM.

    This situation is what I like to describe as GAS... the High Octane type.

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    And, today in "economic rebound" news, Boeing involuntarily lays off 6600 workers, and voluntarily lays off 5000. 11,600 new converts to our booming manufacturing sector.
    Where I live, for every real Union Boeing job, there are 3 to 5 local jobs in subs and processors- anodizers, galvanizing, sandblasting, supplies, and so on.
    Several of my ex-employees work for a shop that does a lot of carts, fixtures, and crude welded stuff for Boeing, 5 miles down the road.
    My electrician routinely gets jobs installing new machines at Boeing, that might be 3 guys for a month, running a new 800 amp service a quarter mile 50 feet up.

    All those jobs are gone, too.

    Just too much winning for me around here.

    My county is above 25% unemployment, and thats the "official" numbers that dont count "independent contractors", one man shops, temp workers, part time seasonal workers, under the table cash workers, and "new economy" types who are basically freelancers with no benefits and no ability to file for unemployment.

    Happy times are here again.

    And the food banks are running out of food.
    And the 50% of the kids who eat two meals a day at school- they are hungry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    And, today in "economic rebound" news, Boeing involuntarily lays off 6600 workers, and voluntarily lays off 5000. 11,600 new converts to our booming manufacturing sector.
    Where I live, for every real Union Boeing job, there are 3 to 5 local jobs in subs and processors- anodizers, galvanizing, sandblasting, supplies, and so on.
    Several of my ex-employees work for a shop that does a lot of carts, fixtures, and crude welded stuff for Boeing, 5 miles down the road.
    My electrician routinely gets jobs installing new machines at Boeing, that might be 3 guys for a month, running a new 800 amp service a quarter mile 50 feet up.

    All those jobs are gone, too.

    Just too much winning for me around here.

    My county is above 25% unemployment, and thats the "official" numbers that dont count "independent contractors", one man shops, temp workers, part time seasonal workers, under the table cash workers, and "new economy" types who are basically freelancers with no benefits and no ability to file for unemployment.

    Happy times are here again.

    And the food banks are running out of food.
    And the 50% of the kids who eat two meals a day at school- they are hungry.
    I'm sorry to hear your predicament Ries,
    But layoffs at Boeing aren't bad news for most suppliers, in fact it is very good news. The demand for aircraft is still very strong, and the demand for military programs are increasing.

    I will continue our 7 day a week shift throughout the remainder of the summer, this will be our best year ever (even if it ends in July).

  14. #2653
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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    The demand for aircraft is still very strong,.
    Just because you know this. And that would be why they're laying thousands off and airlines can't find enough parking spaces on the ground.

    rather a bit of a brain dead waste of time.

  15. #2654
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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    I will continue our 7 day a week shift throughout the remainder of the summer, this will be our best year ever (even if it ends in July).
    So how many people are employed in your 7 days a week industrial powerhouse that somehow seems to only accelerate forward at warp speed as the industry you serve goes deeper in the tank on a daily basis?

    I'd suggest you hand off daily operations to one of your vice presidents and fly your corporate jet to DC to offer your business expertise to the current administration. Should be a good fit as your grip on reality appears to be in synch with that of Commander Bonespurs.

  16. Likes Ries, old_dave, Mcgyver, triumph406 liked this post
  17. #2655
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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    I'm sorry to hear your predicament Ries,
    But layoffs at Boeing aren't bad news for most suppliers, in fact it is very good news. The demand for aircraft is still very strong, and the demand for military programs are increasing.

    I will continue our 7 day a week shift throughout the remainder of the summer, this will be our best year ever (even if it ends in July).
    Thats very sweet of you, but its not "my" predicament.
    I am semi-retired, getting my first SS check this month, and doing just fine.

    But my county has quite a few manufacturing subs, ranging from one man shops to Janicki, which is 450 employees. And they are all doing crappy, laying off employees, and most definitely, not all will come out the other side of this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    . And they are all doing crappy, laying off employees, and most definitely, not all will come out the other side of this.
    BS. haven't you been listening to orlit? He knows all, sees into all industries everywhere

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    A bunch of Debbie downers on this thread.
    Things are going to the MOON.

    Just look at this spike:

    ce8c6f5c-d5fd-4651-8e76-ada8d4300292.jpg

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    Aviation is rocking:

    "General Electric is planning to furlough half of its aviation unit’s engine manufacturing staff as the coronavirus roils the industry, the company told CNBC. The move would involve thousands of jobs in the important unit and last for four weeks.

    The additional reductions come less than a month after the company said it would cut 10% of its aviation unit, affecting roughly 2,600 workers. But the coronavirus’s devastating toll on travel demand has increased and airlines are parking hundreds of planes while deferring orders of new aircraft."
    GE Aviation to furlough 50% of its engine manufacturing staff as coronavirus weighs

    "-GE is planning to cut about 13,000 of jobs in its aviation unit this year amid a dismal market for new jets.
    -Boeing has warned that a recovery in travel demand could take years.
    -The 25% cuts will be permanent and include voluntary measures like early retirements."
    GE Aviation to cut workforce by 25% as coronavirus hits travel demand

  21. #2659
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    Speaking of BOOM- a oil patch play SND is breaking out today.
    How we going to play this- run after price or wait till a test of support?


  22. #2660
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    And the prior reference trade for this type of reversal AXL:



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