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  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawnrs View Post
    No one in their right mind would not work for a company 12 years without a raise. There has to be some perks to keep them employed that long without a raise.
    Could be that the job prospects in the area aren't too great. It could be conveniently close to home. Some people don't like change and like their coworkers. There can be more reasons than just money for people to stay at a place like that.

    My first shop I stayed on longer than I should have after not getting a raise with them for 3 years. The last 2 reasons I stated there were mine. It was very close to where I lived so I could wake up at 6:45 and be in the parking lot at 6:55. Also the vehicle I was driving was an old company truck I bought that got 10.5 MPG, going down hill with a tail wind, so it was good for my check book saving on gas.

    I also liked pretty much everyone there that I worked with who wasn't management/owners, and I just plain hate change in routine and uncertainty.

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    Re: vacation time off. I worked at one of what used to be called the big three automakers and if I needed to take time off for a doctors appt. or anything else I had to use vacation time to cover it. It wasn't always that way but things changed over the years. One of the many reasons that I retired at age 49 and never looked back.

    One year I had to take off a few days to attend my grandmothers funeral which was a thousand miles from me. I used one more day of vacation time that I had coming and ended up in the attendance program. This was after about 27 years of employment with no attendance problems at all. They wanted to reduce the work force and that was one way of accomplishing it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Good Evening Gordon,
    I would doubt that I'm all that different than most toolmakers, but the vast majority of my work, is the same as what I was doing 40 years ago.
    What I wrote was that I had a hard time imagining anyone staying at the same job "for life". I was always ambitious but certainly not all are.

    Looking back there isn't much I'd change about the life I've lived. I consider myself very lucky in doing just about everything I've wanted to do.

    Bit like Doug in King of Queens. He has no ambition. To each his own but it is unfathomable to me.

    Re toolmakers. The area I live in has many toolmakers and several either work at or are connected with Lego. I've never heard one of them complain about being bored although a handful have started their own business. No prize for guessing what their shops make

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawnrs View Post
    No one in their right mind would not work for a company 12 years without a raise. There has to be some perks to keep them employed that long without a raise.
    I had a friend who was a builder, back in 08 his pay was going up 100% per day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big B View Post
    Re: vacation time off. I worked at one of what used to be called the big three automakers and if I needed to take time off for a doctors appt. or anything else I had to use vacation time to cover it. It wasn't always that way but things changed over the years. One of the many reasons that I retired at age 49 and never looked back.

    One year I had to take off a few days to attend my grandmothers funeral which was a thousand miles from me. I used one more day of vacation time that I had coming and ended up in the attendance program. This was after about 27 years of employment with no attendance problems at all. They wanted to reduce the work force and that was one way of accomplishing it.
    That's automotive in a nutshell.

    My dad was in surgery...I took the day off. Doctor came out after 6 hours and told us it didn't look good, surgery wasn't done, much more complicated than scans revealed...it was supposed to be 4 hours in and out...total surgery ended up taking 10. I called in to work (it was 2pm) for the next day so I could sit with my mom. I was told something to the effect of "you should decide if you really want this job".

    Stuff like that was just so common.

    I've been self employed for 4 years now. I'm not killin it, but I'm not killing myself either.

    There are good, well run organizations, where people go out of the way to support one another...but I haven't experienced one as an employee.

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  9. #306
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Otrit- DOW futures gapped up over the last key resistance this morning from the two year consolidation range.
    Could be a breakout- if it holds we could well see the 30-32k you called on the DJI.
    Good Morning Trboat,
    Your statement above was written 2 months ago. How are the charts looking now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Good Morning Trboat,
    Your statement above was written 2 months ago. How are the charts looking now?
    Otrit- I have been way too busy of late so not looking at markets.
    My old instinct was a hit at 30k in the Dow would keep rolling towards 32.

    I stopped shorting of course at the breakout.

    Are you well?
    A friend with a large position in AAPL is feeling fat.

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    Otrit- this is the long chart which I was watching to judge breakout probability:

    As we can see that breakout did occur as was suggested by price action in those charts I had posted prior when development of that consolidation range was working out.



    https://invst.ly/pgpzk

    Open link for better view.

    Re- “How do the charts look now?”:
    Lots of people are watching this simple channel:




    Edit- technically there were several means of judging the evolution of the “breakout”.
    One was top line of triangle consolidation which also represented the monthly resistance level at breakout point (If I had remembered to label above chart I would have called this break of “key” resistance..).
    Second was the cross of channel formed by the difference between the monthly and weekly top lines.
    Third was the final cross of that top line on weekly with the clear confirmation of new support with “test” as shown on chart.

    Switching from short of resistance to long plays being taken at test as this was ‘confirmation’.

    I am still largely sidelined by too busy work schedule.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails df7dab15-55a4-4388-85ec-1e8b4d016d9a.jpg  
    Last edited by Trboatworks; 01-11-2020 at 02:41 PM.

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    Thank's Trboat,
    I must admit, I was expecting a violent upsurge, but instead, we got a very steady upward move (1000 DOW points per month).

    There are many that are still not on board, while they wait for a crash that doesn't come when expected.

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    Don't forget that that sentiment was prevalent in 2007 as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Looks like the recession police are out in force.


    Personally, I would like to see a slowdown so that I can purchase machinetools at a discount, but what I currently see is an acceleration in manufacturing.


    Like many, waiting for a slowdown, or a collapse is foolish.

    If demand exist to justify investment, do it, Don't try to time this shit.
    I've heard this before, and I have have to say, I really don't see it. I see a lot of self fulfilling prophesies of doom, but the reality is that I'm swamped with work and if it keeps up, a new machine purchase is in my future.

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    Otrit I am thinking of going short again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Otrit I am thinking of going short again.
    Good Morning Trboat,
    Volatility is picking-up for sure and many professionals are getting very nervous. One of the most prominent; Mohamed A. El-Erian is also getting bearish. This Coronavirus has rattled this guy, his recent statement this past weekend "Don't buy the dips". What does the market do... new highs.

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    I am too busy to tend positions so not in anything..

    I notice crude did not hold so I am STILL watching for entries in oils sector stocks..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    I am too busy to tend positions so not in anything..

    I notice crude did not hold so I am STILL watching for entries in oils sector stocks..
    Hello Trboat,
    I like your pick, Chevron and Exon/Mobil should be purchased right here. I wouldn't wait for "perfection".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Don't forget that that sentiment was prevalent in 2007 as well.
    I don't understand.
    If you had $10,000 bought in a S&P at the big peak in 2007 you now have $18,000 sitting there.
    Not great but above CPI or bank savings by a fair amount.
    If only I had been a smart kid and bought the DOW at 700....That Pontiac T/A money I spent is now over 400K even with the bad downs.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    I don't understand.
    If you had $10,000 bought in a S&P at the big peak in 2007 you now have $18,000 sitting there.
    Not great but above CPI or bank savings by a fair amount.
    If only I had been a smart kid and bought the DOW at 700....That Pontiac T/A money I spent is now over 400K even with the bad downs.
    Bob
    Excellent Point Bob,
    As I said before, "It is always a very uncomfortable ride to new highs".

    So now we're here, knocking on 30,000's door.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    I don't understand.
    If you had $10,000 bought in a S&P at the big peak in 2007 you now have $18,000 sitting there.
    Except the money is worth less than half as much, so at best you have $9,000 in real terms. Went backwards ten percent

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Except the money is worth less than half as much, so at best you have $9,000 in real terms. Went backwards ten percent
    Not quite. Cumulative inflation since 2007 is approximately 24% so you would still have between 14k and 15k of 2007 dollars.

    Edit: Just out of curiosity I checked when you would need to start to have 100% cumulative inflation, it is the year of my birth. I will celebrate my 30th later this year. Totally useless information, but I thought it was interesting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Except the money is worth less than half as much, so at best you have $9,000 in real terms. Went backwards ten percent
    And you pay capital gains tax on the numeric increase though the real value is less.


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