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  1. #21
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    In the USA we have the Federal Reserve which has an absolute endless supply of money backed up by nothing more than you and your property. We are in desperate need of a damn good war, preferably a World War. If we don't get one then a well placed nuke over the USA at altitude will take out our electrical distribution system and horse and buggies will be in great demand. Of course a good ol' solar flare could accomplish the same thing.

    In the meantime it's high flying in our $70,000 pickup trucks, unaffordable housing, laughable health care, and Democrats.

    So yeah, a good economic crash might be a better alternative.

    I can survive any and all of it so for now it's clear sailing.

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    “The democrat's fondest hope is that they can jawbone a recession before the 2020 election. Every possible effort is being taken to affect this anomaly through lies, market manipulation, and statistical calisthenics. ”

    Nothing to see here eh?...:

    27190adb-6ef6-4c08-bf79-82cf50fed734.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    “ ”

    Nothing to see here eh?...:

    27190adb-6ef6-4c08-bf79-82cf50fed734.jpg
    Auto related. Tesla has been kicking their ass in higher end autos for the last two years in China and the US.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hobby Shop View Post
    Auto related. Tesla has been kicking their ass in higher end autos for the last two years in China and the US.
    Ok:

    3b6ac5cf-5d3b-49fc-ae61-c322900d8660.jpg f12fdfcb-e4ba-4338-995e-32a96621be70.jpg

    abf75d22-0187-49f3-af28-65573c828b2d.jpg

    And I guess the set needs this eh?..:

    ade95b48-7bbb-440b-ac09-c49672c58ab3.jpg

    “I can understand perfectly how the report of my illness got about, I have even heard on good authority that I was dead.....
    The report of my death was an exaggeration.”
    -M.Twain

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  8. #25
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    The Democrats only hope for the White House in 2020 is a recession.

    I know here in the low-cost south manufacturing is booming. In my opinion, it's time for the high-cost areas like California and the PNW to get real.

    Sure, the US economy is due for a slowdown. But, the fundamentals are strong, and even with a slowdown, most economists are not expecting a recession...at least for a couple more years.

    Just enough time for the Chinese to realize it's DT they will have to deal with after 2020, and then they will come to grips with reality and sign a fair trade deal.

    Then the US economy will take off again.

    The Germany economy depends on the export of higher-priced goods, always selling because of perceived attributes. Now that China and the rest of the world are catching up to their "quality", Germany is going to be in for a world of hurt. Not to mention the mess they're in trying to prop up half of Europe.

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    got people disagreeing. take currency values if a country deliberately devalues their currency it makes that countries trying to import other countries stuff higher in cost. if acts like a tariff discouraging importing stuff.
    .
    if US $ is too high in value relative to other countries currencies easiest thing to do is print more money til it devalues enough. but you got some who dont want their money worth less even if it helps create jobs in the USA. they want their overvalued dollars to be able to buy cheap imported goods and couldnt care less about the rest of the country.
    .
    they will say retirees and welfare people wont be able to live as comfortably and dont care about jobs for people working now and teens entering the work force. when labor participation rate is about 50% that means 1/2 the country getting money from somebody else or from savings/investments or from government welfare and SS payments.
    .
    some people dont care about teens and young adults needing to fined decent jobs. they dont care about anybody but themselves. they gladly have country loose 10 to 100 million jobs if it means they can buy cheaper stuff

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    I think another thing going on is we are on the other side of the great recession... just because we go into a slowdown doesn't mean its 2008 again.

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    The US is the only country that had a good 3year run. Europe has been a ticking bomb for years. China's long been struggling to keep the smoke in the can, you can only build so many roads to nowhere and empty cities to boost your GDP... Many Euro countries are in riots or ready to implode.

    Cooked books and massive gov deficit aside, Canada has really been in recession for 4 years as far as most are concerned, our top industries are decimated and large investment entirely moved out of the country. A few of us were just lucky to ride the US boom of the last 3 years, but that's starting to not look so good now.


    US can't float the entire planet. Unfortunately since you were the only country to really boom in the last 3 years, it means stocks and a few things will fall much harder than all the countries who are already at the bottom or damn near it.

    Smart people used the last 3 years to properly set themselves for what was inevitable. I know I'm not worried, got through 2009 in much worse shape.

    Some of us remember that the market was supposed to collapse and be in full on Recession Apocalypse on the very day Trump won the election... every media and their experts said so.

    The Fed has also been working hard at making sure it comes soon. Same with BOC, both rising interest way too fast with no true reason, just bs.
    Thing is they still got nowhere to go in a crash now. Trump has a few cards he can play, while most of central banks will collapse. The US will probably come out even stronger and more self sufficient after the next recession VS the world than going in, if played right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    The Democrats only hope for the White House in 2020 is a recession.

    I know here in the low-cost south manufacturing is booming. In my opinion, it's time for the high-cost areas like California and the PNW to get real.

    Sure, the US economy is due for a slowdown. But, the fundamentals are strong, and even with a slowdown, most economists are not expecting a recession...at least for a couple more years.

    Just enough time for the Chinese to realize it's DT they will have to deal with after 2020, and then they will come to grips with reality and sign a fair trade deal.

    Then the US economy will take off again.

    The Germany economy depends on the export of higher-priced goods, always selling because of perceived attributes. Now that China and the rest of the world have caught up to their "quality", Germany is going to be in for a world of hurt.

    Just like America was starting back in the 80's...
    I was about to comment your post and discovered I wouldn't even know where or how to begin.

    I am now a believer in parallel universes as we certainly don't live in the same one.

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  16. #30
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    facts are I made record breaking pay last year and this year will be less but it will still be $15,000 more at the end of the year than my average yearly pay. and my tax man said my tax % rate went down and i pay less taxes. dont matter what news says i believe my tax man doing my taxes
    .
    even slowing economy its still easily massively better than average. if news says things are bad it like saying global warming going to be really bad this year yet if you look at temperatures like of north pole is about same as its always been
    .
    .....Today North Pole is high temperature of 0 Celsius but news keeps saying massive melting going on. how exactly does ice melt when its at or below freezing ? i plant a garden every year and no year in last 50 years have i been able to plant earlier without a frost so how exactly are things warmer when earlier planted crops freeze from cold. news so bad it just becomes unbelievable and alot i suspect just being made up to support some sort of propaganda
    .
    its well known stock market bad news is mostly to get prices to drop, how else do you buy low and sell at high prices without some sort of news to create panic selling. you got record breaking stock market and when it goes down 2% you would think the end is near when in reality its still doing very well calculating real 10 year average data. i see about 6 to 7% increase in 401K including the ups and downs. long term average is over 6.5% increase factoring in inflation probably closer to 5% increase but its still increasing

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  18. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMF_TomB View Post
    if news says things are bad it like saying global warming going to be really bad this year yet if you look at temperatures like of north pole is about same as its always been
    .
    .....Today North Pole is high temperature of 0 Celsius but news keeps saying massive melting going on. how exactly does ice melt when its at or below freezing ? i plant a garden every year and no year in last 50 years have i been able to plant earlier without a frost so how exactly are things warmer when earlier planted crops freeze from cold. news so bad it just becomes unbelievable and alot i suspect just being made up to support some sort of propaganda.
    If by "North Pole" you mean Greenland then temperatures there are higher than ever recorded. Remember too that Greenland isn't just a lump of ice. It's high mountains and most is covered n ice and snow.

    Probably because Greenland is part of Denmark I get more news as to what is happening. It ain't FAKE NEWS.

    Climate change adaptation in Greenland - Wikipedia

    Watch this (3 minutes) and the guy knows what he's talking about.

    YouTube

    This is where I add that I don't believe climate change is all due to human influence but no point in not helping reduce CO2 when and if we can.

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    All the warning lights are blinking recession. We've been dead slow since the latest round of tariff increases in May. Dead slow like 20% of our typical monthly revenue.

    Even given that, I'm getting more and more calls from people trying to sell me stuff, so it can't be just me and products are flying off the shelf for everyone else. It feels very 2007 again.

    Recessions aren't a bad thing. They clear out the economic dead wood and let the nutrients return to the ecosystem.

    But if someone wants to buy a bunch of shiny machines right now on the expectation the economy is going to accelerate, that's great too. I'll give you a list of nearly new things I'd like to buy cheaply at auction in 2021.

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    Just because of trade wars and the stock market going down does not worry me much. I have read that manufacturing here is supposed to be slowing down yet all who I know are not experiencing that yet.

    I just hope for the best.

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    The global economy has been slowing since the middle of last year. The Brexit confusion has hurt the EU, the trade war has hurt the Asian economies. Both affect the US, but we have done better than anyone else so far.

    8 interest rate hikes in 2 years- the Fed's job is to take away the punch bowl, as they say...

    As far as US manufacturing, it helps to drill down a little bit. There was a sharp decline in utilities output in June, which put the second quarter into a slight negative territory- hurricane related, and it reversed in July- the losses posted in June were completely gained back in July. Take that one factor out, and the "recession" for manufacturing disappears.

    Mentioned previously- the spike in short term yields is a reflection of capital seeking a safe harbor. As a predictor of recession, it's kind of iffy- 18-24 months lag leaves a lot of wiggle room...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    If by "North Pole" you mean Greenland then temperatures there are higher than ever recorded. Remember too that Greenland isn't just a lump of ice. It's high mountains and most is covered n ice and snow.

    Probably because Greenland is part of Denmark I get more news as to what is happening. It ain't FAKE NEWS.

    Climate change adaptation in Greenland - Wikipedia

    Watch this (3 minutes) and the guy knows what he's talking about.

    YouTube

    This is where I add that I don't believe climate change is all due to human influence but no point in not helping reduce CO2 when and if we can.
    He means North Pole as in Santa Claus' house. Weather Channel has a beacon up there and Tom keeps tabs on it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    The global economy has been slowing since the middle of last year. The Brexit confusion has hurt the EU, the trade war has hurt the Asian economies. Both affect the US, but we have done better than anyone else so far.
    I don't disagree with you but see it slightly differently.

    "The Brexit confusion" has probably hurt the UK more than the EU.

    The trade war has hurt all economies - including the USA export import market. It has hurt the EU more than Brexit will.

    The big question is - who's going to come out of all this with the least hurt? The only thing I'm reasonably sure of is things are going to get even worse before they get better.

    I believe the trade war will hurt the USA more than expected and that Brexit will come as a shock to Brits. We'll see.

    It's all a bit like roulette. Many think there are 36 numbers (1 - 36) and the chances are even but in fact there are 37 numbers. 0 and the casino wins.

    Is this an unbeatable Roulette strategy?

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    The Democrats only hope for the White House in 2020 is a recession.

    I know here in the low-cost south manufacturing is booming. In my opinion, it's time for the high-cost areas like California and the PNW to get real.

    Sure, the US economy is due for a slowdown. But, the fundamentals are strong, and even with a slowdown, most economists are not expecting a recession...at least for a couple more years.

    Just enough time for the Chinese to realize it's DT they will have to deal with after 2020, and then they will come to grips with reality and sign a fair trade deal.
    You wouldn't recognise a fair trade deal if there was one on the table, judging by past ones, so that's a non-starter.

    In addition, say Trump *is* re-elected in 2020. He still only gets another 4 years. You think China can't sit there for that long? I reckon they can & will. What are you going to do? Put a 1000% tariff on Chinese goods?

    PDW

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    The Democrats only hope for the White House in 2020 is a recession.
    You are absolutely correct toolcat,
    The Dems will do all they can to "scuttle" the economy and cause as much mayhem as possible. The interesting thing is... that's just what Trump wants to happen.

    A recession without; $100 oil?
    New War in Perian Gulf?
    A Bush in the White House?
    Real Estate Gone Wild?
    last but not least, A Republican in the White House?


    All of the above factors point to no recession, it will eventually come, but not in the next 2 years.
    Last edited by otrlt; 08-15-2019 at 10:41 PM.

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    What kind of umbrella does one purchase when the sky is falling?

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    Quote Originally Posted by plastikdreams View Post
    What kind of umbrella does one purchase when the sky is falling?
    They call it shorting stocks... but you better hope you can predict what DAY it falls.

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