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Thread: Recession?

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    Well, the three funds that hold my redundancy pay/savings/living expenses for the next 4 years, lost an average of 2.6% today. So I guess that some wide boys in the city have made a bob or two betting against various stocks today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Well, the three funds that hold my redundancy pay/savings/living expenses for the next 4 years, lost an average of 2.6% today. So I guess that some wide boys in the city have made a bob or two betting against various stocks today.
    Ouch! Well, I look forward to working into my 80's, darn glad I like what I do.

    Say, is eyesight and hearing important when machining? Asking for a friend...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    I'm not sure why you started this thread. I'm sure things are going well in some industries and places and not so well in others.

    Even within manufacturing it very much depends on what is being manufactured and where.
    Gordon,
    I started this thread because I wanted to show what manufacturing business are actually doing. Instead of listening to talking heads that are not educated in the finer points of this business, many should listen to what I say because it is from the trenches.


    When was the last time you cut steel?

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    I think the OP is a very "glass half full" type guy.
    Perhaps some irrational exuberance helps carry us through the the current mess onto stable ground.
    Certainly things are slowing, negative thinking by mangers, owners and CEOs will not help.
    How much of this moves with the mindset of those in control? Do we talk ourselves into a crash?
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    I think the OP is a very "glass half full" type guy.
    Perhaps some irrational exuberance helps carry us through the the current mess onto stable ground.
    Certainly things are slowing, negative thinking by mangers, owners and CEOs will not help.
    How much of this moves with the mindset of those in control? Do we talk ourselves into a crash?
    Bob
    Lets play ultra pessimist... This is the end, back in your caves folks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Gordon,
    I started this thread because I wanted to show what manufacturing business are actually doing. Instead of listening to talking heads that are not educated in the finer points of this business, many should listen to what I say because it is from the trenches.

    When was the last time you cut steel?
    I'm replying because of your last sentence.

    Last time I cut steel was yesterday. Aluminium too.

    If you are "speaking from the trenches" is it your shop or are you an employee? Folk "from the trenches" were often thought of by generals as "cannon fodder". Expendable.

    Re my own business I'm having a good year

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Last time I cut steel was yesterday. Aluminium too.

    Opening a beer can doesn't count.

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    Quote Originally Posted by converterking View Post
    Opening a beer can doesn't count.
    Zing! Sometimes they just slide right in

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mark Rand View Post
    Well, the three funds that hold my redundancy pay/savings/living expenses for the next 4 years, lost an average of 2.6% today. So I guess that some wide boys in the city have made a bob or two betting against various stocks today.

    My 401K says I'm up 10% for the year as of today... But yesterday I went ahead and changed it from an aggressive investment plan to conservative...

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Do we talk ourselves into a crash?
    Bob
    I think the psychology thing is a big thing.
    Obama saying you didn't build that, and growth is a thing of the past so get used to it etc, is polar opposite to Trump.
    He's biggin-up the USA and can only be positive.
    IMO

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    Quote Originally Posted by converterking View Post
    Opening a beer can doesn't count.
    Can popping the cap off a beer bottle make me a sheet metal worker?

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    Quote Originally Posted by kenton View Post
    Can popping the cap off a beer bottle make me a sheet metal worker?
    Only if you down it in one...

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    Quote Originally Posted by TeachMePlease View Post
    My 401K says I'm up 10% for the year as of today... But yesterday I went ahead and changed it from an aggressive investment plan to conservative...
    Don't forget to change it back to aggressive if things do crash. And then go ahead and make a lump sum contribution.

    I'm not going to mess with it. I'll keep it aggressive, keep contributing, and hope that 40 years from now it's worth enough to allow me to give birthday gifts to all my grandkids.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TeachMePlease View Post
    My 401K says I'm up 10% for the year as of today... But yesterday I went ahead and changed it from an aggressive investment plan to conservative...
    My point of view is that a recession is just a chance to buy at a discount. I've got the decades to wait...

    I'm not unhappy with performance this year, but 10% for the year also doesn't mean much considering how the end of last year went. Last time I compared, things were basically back at October pricing sometime last month. The non-index fund trading I did this year has me beating the market, maybe it's time to switch jobs.

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    “The circulation of confidence is better than the circulation of money.”
    -James Madison

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post

    If you are "speaking from the trenches" is it your shop or are you an employee? Folk "from the trenches" were often thought of by generals as "cannon fodder". Expendable.
    If there is one thing that I have learned about business in the last 35 years, is that I can easily hire computer geeks and tablet Jockeys, but what you describe as "cannon fodder" are the prime muscle that successful shops have.


    And they are not expendable, I work along side with them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    If there is one thing that I have learned about business in the last 35 years, is that I can easily hire computer geeks and tablet Jockeys, but what you describe as "cannon fodder" are the prime muscle that successful shops have.

    And they are not expendable, I work along side with them.
    Sigh. You used the word "trenches" and the expression "cannon fodder" was used way before I was born. A successful shop relies on all and some also on "computer geeks and tablet Jockeys" as you so eloquently describe them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Sigh. You used the word "trenches" and the expression "cannon fodder" was used way before I was born. A successful shop relies on all and some also on "computer geeks and tablet Jockeys" as you so eloquently describe them.
    Ok.
    Then try to hire a good tooling guy right now. Go ahead try it.

    I can hire engineers, I.T. folks, accountants, salesmen, and even janitors all day long.

    We CAN"T FIND good tooling guys. Around here, they stay put, and get taken care of by the lucky companies that find them.

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    Countries like Denmark and Sweden have been using Negative interest rates to try to get their economy to "grow" and try to force people to spend, and so far it doesn't even seem to be working. Now they got negative interest mortgages too.
    Not signs of a booming economy over there...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Speaking of crude oil prices...
    Is it time to buy back into the sector.

    SDRL is starting to look like a buy eh?
    Not me, I won’t touch oil & gas. If Trump loses 2020 you can bet your ass the $20billion in subsidies to big oil will dry up overnight. Oil has peaked because of US shale. I think oil loses either way, oil crashes on over supply once Iran starts pumping again and spikes when there is a disruption in shipping. There’s no stopping BEV’s at $80-$100 oil. Global demand for oil in the next 5 years will all be gone.

    I went cash in the 401k about 2yrs ago and just got back in the market last week. I shorted the S&P and Chinese indexes and thinking about a long term short on big oil too.


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