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    Quote Originally Posted by Hobby Shop View Post
    Not me, I won’t touch oil & gas. If Trump loses 2020 you can bet your ass the $20billion in subsidies to big oil will dry up overnight. Oil has peaked because of US shale. I think oil loses either way, oil crashes on over supply once Iran starts pumping again and spikes when there is a disruption in shipping. There’s no stopping BEV’s at $80-$100 oil. Global demand for oil in the next 5 years will all be gone.

    I went cash in the 401k about 2yrs ago and just got back in the market last week. I shorted the S&P and Chinese indexes and thinking about a long term short on big oil too.
    I don't think you have a very good understanding of what products are made with or from oil...

    Products made from petroleum | Ranken Energy Corporation

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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    I don't think you have a very good understanding of what products are made with or from oil...

    Products made from petroleum | Ranken Energy Corporation

    Just the opposite, I have a very good understanding what products are made from oil. The problem is the 150million tons of plastic in the ocean and the over supply because of shale.

    Edit: In 2018 the Chinese bought more battery powered vehicles than the whole world combined. Obviously there will always be a demand for oil but I personally think big oil going to die by a thousand little cuts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hobby Shop View Post
    Just the opposite, I have a very good understanding what products are made from oil. The problem is the 150million tons of plastic in the ocean and the over supply because of shale.
    You stated the global demand for oil will be gone in 5 years.

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    I over-reached. Demand won’t be gone but will be significantly less and I’ll play the downward side.

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    I don’t think we have seen peak demand for oil yet.
    If supply scarcity comes in first...

    I’m not convinced shale oil is any panacea for supply.
    We are exhausting the easy and cheap to extract deposits.

    In any case, higher extraction costs of unconventional deposits will curb that production at a barrel price not much lower than our PPB.

    The US is currently producing about 10 million barrels/day against 20 million consumed.
    Fracking doubled our production but we are not nearly meeting our own needs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunderjet View Post
    Ok.
    Then try to hire a good tooling guy right now. Go ahead try it.

    I can hire engineers, I.T. folks, accountants, salesmen, and even janitors all day long.

    We CAN"T FIND good tooling guys. Around here, they stay put, and get taken care of by the lucky companies that find them.
    You are definitely right Thunderjet,
    In your region, you probably have more to choose from than we do out west.

    Although, this is my "off the cuff" estimate, I would bet that there isn't more than 2000 top notch toolmakers in the US.

    In California... less than 300.

    after thinking about it, I think my estimate can be 25% over estimated.
    Last edited by otrlt; 08-17-2019 at 08:25 PM.

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    Not only are the numbers of top tier toolmakers insanely low, but many of them are highly specialized.
    Knowing clearances for stamping dies, molds, and PM tooling is different. Learnable quickly for the sharp.
    Throw multiaxis machining in there, and the numbers are even lower.

    I've found that I cant get paid as a toolmaker, unless I go to the big city. Thats not happening.
    So I use my toolmaking skills to make strange one off stuff nobody else will touch.
    That way, big city comes to me. For now...

    Canadian shops have only been able to survive due to the amount of work coming from stateside, and American inability to handle all the work (IMO).
    Without that, we'd have been done 3 years ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by macds View Post

    I've found that I cant get paid as a toolmaker, unless I go to the big city. Thats not happening.
    So I use my toolmaking skills to make strange one off stuff nobody else will touch.
    That way, big city comes to me. For now...
    Excellent input macds,
    You are absolutely right about toolmaking being confined to larger cities. When I started in this trade, I wanted to be a Die Maker. I was especially impressed with progressive dies, but I started out in southern California where we were mostly gage/machining fixture builders.

    I worked with a Progressive DieMaker from Toronto, and has he described, it was a very satisfying experience to work on a die for months and later to hear each strike as a completed part.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Excellent input macds,
    You are absolutely right about toolmaking being confined to larger cities. When I started in this trade, I wanted to be a Die Maker. I was especially impressed with progressive dies, but I started out in southern California where we were mostly gage/machining fixture builders.

    I worked with a Progressive DieMaker from Toronto, and has he described, it was a very satisfying experience to work on a die for months and later to hear each strike as a completed art.
    I'm really lucky to have served my time in an old school shop that considered die makers as artists rather than glorified machinists.

    I learned die layout, tryout, and modification on the fly from some top notch die makers/designers.

    I landed at an electronic stamping firm and I get to do all sorts of design, and building of some very tight tolerance stamping dies. I needed to learn the patience, and the discipline to do the work. I'm very thankful for the place I'm in right now.

    If I didn't do this work, I'd be in jail....or worse.

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    Have you heard of the "Pantie Hose" technique?
    A DieMaker that I use to know described this pantie hose usage to set dieblocks for proper clearances before try-out. This technique can quite possibly be useful in molds as well. I'm sure someone has heard of this method, even if it was done over 40 years ago.

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    Most everyone has now been convinced that a recession is near.

    Industrial activity in the west, for the first time in the last 10 years is showing substantial gains. I will assume it is military production.

    I do not see a significant down turn in US manufacturing in the next 4 years.

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    I hope your right.
    Im getting ready to make a substantial business move.
    Ive been working out of 950sq ft for the last 5 years. Its more than a little tight in here.

    Also hope you guys keep sending lots of work north

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Most everyone has now been convinced that a recession is near.

    Industrial activity in the west, for the first time in the last 10 years is showing substantial gains. I will assume it is military production.

    I do not see a significant down turn in US manufacturing in the next 4 years.
    Would you take a pro-business Fortune Magazine article (now not four years from now) as significant?* U.S. Manufacturing Sector Shrinks for First Time Since 2009 | Fortune

    Please note the Fortune headline. It's not that manufacturing "for the first time in the last 10 years is showing substantial gains. It's "U.S Manufacturing Sector Shrinks for the First Time (in the last ten years)."

    What concerns me are the exceptional steps (borrowing actually) that have been used to prop up our economy -- to end up with so little in hand. They include:

    - Trillions borrowed to give tax cuts.
    - A half trillion repatriated, used mainly for stock buybacks (and a higher Dow, S&P, etc.)
    - Jawboning to cut interest rates, leaving us less able to deal with the next bust
    - Trashing the environment to get greater output in the short term
    - Trading partners, allies, most everyone increasingly determined to cut loose from a less trustworthy US

    What's next? Oh, yeah, floating the idea of cutting payroll taxes (your Social Security, already in need of a fix) to give the economy a boost

    The current level of administrative denial is mind-boggling to me. One day tariff wars are easy to win. The next, they won't change prices a bit. Like Mexico building the wall, China will absorb all the costs. Next thing, we're going to hold off on tariffs until after Christmas so we don't look bad when customers actually see higher prices. Is that our long range planning horizon -- Christmas? The next election?

    As noted in other threads, I think we should be using tariffs to level the playing field - but are doing it pretty much in the most chaotic, least productive -- and ultimately most costly ways.

    As for military production -- not sure that having the Russians, Chinese, and US expanding their nuclear arsenals with ever-more-lethal weapons and delivery systems isn't yet another form of debt we're leaving to the next generation. Hard for me to think, "wonderful, thank you, yet another economic stimulus."

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    Recessions come and they go. Just like a tide.
    Bob

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    I’m not an economist, but it seems like the American, and perhaps much of the world’s, economic plan relies on an ever expanding population. They kick the can down the road with the expectation that there will always be more people to deal with it and pay for it later.

    One can look at the Japanese economy to see what happens when population growth stops and the population as a whole gets older. What happens when the whole world follows that model? It’s inevitable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ewlsey View Post
    . . .
    One can look at the Japanese economy to see what happens when population growth stops and the population as a whole gets older. What happens when the whole world follows that model? It’s inevitable.
    Precisely, to the first part.

    Japan also shows that a somewhat sustainable economy (lower growth, but making decent stuff) isn't the worst thing in the world. Compared to the US they don't pay their CEO's and top finance folks as much, but they are better educated, live longer, have faster Internet, at least as good comic book heroes, etc. Japan isn't an especially happy place (according to those who survey this) - about 1/4 down the list. But the world's happiest countries (#1 to #9: Finland, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, New Zealand, and Canada) manage to do with typical growth rates just a bit over 1%.

    An economy predicated on the notion of continued compound growth must eventually run out of one or more physical resources (clean air, clean water, climate, top soil, one or more rare earth metals, bees, salmon, antibiotics that still work, whatever). Financially, leaving us with cycles of boom and bust in which the middle class shrinks and a few at the top become wealthier. Kind of like a boa constrictor - each boom then bust puts the squeeze on ever tighter on people actually adding value and making stuff.

    An economy could continue more or less forever (until the Sun stops shining? or we find another Sun??) in a more sustainable mold.

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    I'm down with Japan until you read about their sex lives and lonliness... weird place. Love the food.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    I'm down with Japan until you read about their sex lives and lonliness... weird place. Love the food.
    As noted, it's not an especially happy place. Though well ahead of Russia and fast-growing China.

    Seems to me the ideal for the future may be a sustainable population not so dominated by the very old as in Japan. Old, with nothing meaningful to do or kids around -- that's sad.

    Old with kids and grandkids around -- and still some meaningful work or avocation to be done? With your health --- and a sense of self respect earned by actually contributing something to society? That's pretty good.

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    Pete have you pinned down a comparison with population growth, real GDP, exports and inflation?

    I am looking at the US case.
    Not huge exports, not large population change but positive, GDP expansion nearish to inflation.
    I suppose the financial services contribution is so large.... sort of takes the fun out of mercantilism....
    I had thought global population growth was still in pure exponential phase- projections shown a rounding over...

    And a necessary plug for green..
    Environmentalism = carrying capacity = sanity..

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Would you take a pro-business Fortune Magazine article (now not four years from now) as significant?* U.S. Manufacturing Sector Shrinks for First Time Since 2009 | Fortune

    Please note the Fortune headline. It's not that manufacturing "for the first time in the last 10 years is showing substantial gains. It's "U.S Manufacturing Sector Shrinks for the First Time (in the last ten years)."

    What concerns me are the exceptional steps (borrowing actually) that have been used to prop up our economy -- to end up with so little in hand. They include:

    - Trillions borrowed to give tax cuts.
    - A half trillion repatriated, used mainly for stock buybacks (and a higher Dow, S&P, etc.)
    - Jawboning to cut interest rates, leaving us less able to deal with the next bust
    - Trashing the environment to get greater output in the short term
    - Trading partners, allies, most everyone increasingly determined to cut loose from a less trustworthy US

    What's next? Oh, yeah, floating the idea of cutting payroll taxes (your Social Security, already in need of a fix) to give the economy a boost

    The current level of administrative denial is mind-boggling to me. One day tariff wars are easy to win. The next, they won't change prices a bit. Like Mexico building the wall, China will absorb all the costs. Next thing, we're going to hold off on tariffs until after Christmas so we don't look bad when customers actually see higher prices. Is that our long range planning horizon -- Christmas? The next election?

    As noted in other threads, I think we should be using tariffs to level the playing field - but are doing it pretty much in the most chaotic, least productive -- and ultimately most costly ways.

    As for military production -- not sure that having the Russians, Chinese, and US expanding their nuclear arsenals with ever-more-lethal weapons and delivery systems isn't yet another form of debt we're leaving to the next generation. Hard for me to think, "wonderful, thank you, yet another economic stimulus."


    I understand your angst Pete,
    but I have determined that there is a second leg to our recent manufacturing boom. The west coast is finally showing strength, the billions spent on military aircraft and weapons systems is just getting started. This trend will continue for at least 6 years.

    There maybe a recession in the next 2 years, but defense contractors will be busy for the next 5-10 years.


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