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  1. #81
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    Interesting to see what the space industry does... the west coast has that deal bookended and filled in the middle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Pete have you pinned down a comparison with population growth, real GDP, exports and inflation? . . .
    Not really. It's hard to even get a sense of GDP, when so much fluff is counted in the number. Back before 2008, when the finance industry booked near half the nation's profits, fairy tale derivatives were part of our GDP.

    I've been sort of tracking this since around 1970. Stupid silly detail, but I remember seeing an ad for an ugly, cheaply made "Executive Bathroom Radio." It offended me as someone mid way through studies of engineering (got to be built well), industrial design (got to function well both practically and aesthetically), and human factors (got to fit with human needs, even aspirations). This was wrong in every way. A crappy bad-sounding AM radio, ugly as sin, made to dispense toilet paper an inch away from the dials. It also struck me this bit of crap (literally, figuratively) was part of our GROSS national product. Ever since, I've noticed how much of our GDP was, well, GROSS. Pretty much a waste of human effort. Goldman's derivatives and all the "profits" just 2008 another worthless addition in that mold.

    What I can see is that we're borrowing hugely from the future to sustain the appearance of growth in the present. I've counted about a dozen ways the Trump administration is basically grabbing assets we'll need in the future ($$$, climate, trust, whatever) and using them to polish perceptions of the present. And, yes, a lot of Democrats have their own ideas for spending now, not paying later.

    One recent thing I've come to appreciate is the relationship between trade deficits and debt. Borrow money -- it gets spent. If you don't make the stuff that's bought (the financialization of the US has seen to it that we don't), then you buy it from abroad. We can't expect to keep borrowing money from China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, etc. and not expect to run a trade deficit.

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  5. #83
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    Ok thanks.
    This is a gem:

    “The one recent thing (I’ve)come to appreciate is the relationship between trade deficits and debt”

    We live in an age of immense information.
    A decent question is a goldmine used to understand disparate information.

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  7. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    . . . I have determined that there is a second leg to our recent manufacturing boom. The west coast is finally showing strength, the billions spent on military aircraft and weapons systems is just getting started. This trend will continue for at least 6 years.

    There maybe a recession in the next 2 years, but defense contractors will be busy for the next 5-10 years.
    What was Santayana's quote about remembering the past? In this case, the recent past.

    We've left trillions of dollars of weapons (with the debt yet to be paid) in places like North Korea, Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria -- or sold them to good buddies like the Iranians (Iran-Contra) and Saudis (you know, the guys sawing up journalists).

    Somehow hasn't made us richer as a nation, at least IMO. Hard for me to think "thank goodness our military budget will delay a recession."

    You seem a bright guy. It also seems to me that you can't really know the economic future despite "having determined" things like a 30,000 DOW in 3 weeks (that was over 3 months ago), the highest manufacturing growth in 10 years (when Fortune says, no, it's the lowest), no recession for the next 4 years, no make it maybe 2 years, etc.

    What you can add -- and I appreciate it as factual -- is the notion that billions of increased military spending will have an effect on the economy. Personally, I'm inclined to see it more as another temporary stimulus than, say, ushering in decades of relative peace in the decades immediately ahead. Given the kinds of leaders the world has today (e.g. Putin, Xi, Kim, Khamenei, Netanyahu, Erdogan, Assad, Trump . . .) there may not be good alternatives, but that's surely as much a failure of leadership than something to be applauded. At least IMO.

    As an aside, a recent article suggested that North Korea had used hacking of financial institutions to steal $2 billion and fund their nuclear program. Haven't vetted that article, so don't take it as gospel truth. However it raises a question -- how come a widely despised regime like Kim's gets to guarantee it's existence with a couple billion bucks of nukes and it takes two orders of magnitude more, taken from taxpayers and borrowed from the future, to guarantee ours? Or how come China, at about an order of magnitude less spend, is arguably able to win WWIII in a scenario proposed by historian Alfred McCoy ( YouTube )?

    Seems to me that a military stimulus that's 1% or 10% cost-effective is a bad deal. Just as a medical system that's 50% cost-effective compared to other nations, while not covering all our citizens. Or an education systems that spends near the top (not quite the top per capita) but averages something like 30th in the world in math and science. Point being that, in my mind, the greatest danger to our freedoms and a robust economy is the waste and short-term gratification we increasingly embrace.

    I fear that far more than a GDP that appears to grow at 1% rather than 3% - especially if that 3% includes today's equivalent of Executive Bathroom Radios, the next financial scam, 2x over-priced health care, unaffordable higher education, and a military-industrial trajectory that somehow spends trillions and ends up making us both poorer and less safe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    Interesting to see what the space industry does... the west coast has that deal bookended and filled in the middle.
    The aerospace industry is in the beginning of it's expansion, this is very good news for those of us that can make precision parts.

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    The US has the resources to invest in it's military, more so than all other countries combined.

    It pays to have this level of vigilance, China and Russia know this very well.


    Has it made us a more prosperous nation?

    Ask the contractors and workers at; Boieng, Raytheon and the several S&P BlueChip Companies that invest in manufacturing company's,

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    The US has the resources to invest in it's military, more so than all other countries combined.

    It pays to have this level of vigilance, China and Russia know this very well.


    Has it made us a more prosperous nation?

    Ask the contractors and workers at; Boieng, Raytheon and the several S&P BlueChip Companies that invest in manufacturing company's,
    Could be you're overestimating the positive impact of the larger defense budget. Might be a boon if you're making parts for defense customers. Doesn't mean the DOW has reached 30,000 or the second coming of the Industrial Revolution.

    Boeing has been gradually using less workers to build more airplanes. So, it's getting a bit harder to ask an actual Boeing employee how things are going. Not a complaint, just an observation.

    It's about a $100 billion company and only about $20 billion of that is defense. The roughly $60 billion commercial and $20 billion services is now at risk due to the same sort of short-term thinking (we don't need QC on the 737 Max) that's hurting us across the board. What would really help Boeing is not shooting itself in the foot on the commercial side, in hopes of someone's corner-cutting bonus. The 1/20th larger US defense budget increase applied to a $20 billion Boing defense business is small potatoes in comparison.

    As for the Raytheon example, it's about a $30 billion company - about the same size as the US opioid market.

    Let's try the same "good stimulus for the economy logic" in this $30 billion industry:

    "Have opioids made us a more prosperous nation? Ask the salesmen and workers at Perdue Pharma and the several S&P BlueChip companies that invest in pharma manufacturing."

    How we spend our money and how effectively it produces benefits for our citizens matter. We've been fed a line for decades that throwing money at bridges to nowhere, trickle down, and special tax breaks for the likes of Enron, real estate tycoons, and hedge fund billionaires are great for our economy. Years ago, Eisenhower warned us about the military/industrial spend. Since then we've left trillions of dollar of weapons in places less peaceful and now a greater threat than before. Right now we're being told that borrowing money for tax breaks for trickle down, maybe further draining the Social Security fund to boost spending, are good for us. With more of "us" slipping from the middle class along the way and fewer owning most of the nation's wealth.

    Maybe time for us to stop believing those hoping to "stimulate the economy" if you'll just send a few billion their way -- or just look the other way as they take short cuts, kill customers, dodge taxes, and lie about it all -- have our best interests at heart.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Could be you're overestimating the positive impact of the larger defense budget. Might be a boon if you're making parts for defense customers. Doesn't mean the DOW has reached 30,000 or the second coming of the Industrial Revolution.

    Boeing has been gradually using less workers to build more airplanes. So, it's getting a bit harder to ask an actual Boeing employee how things are going. Not a complaint, just an observation.

    It's about a $100 billion company and only about $20 billion of that is defense. The roughly $60 billion commercial and $20 billion services is now at risk due to the same sort of short-term thinking (we don't need QC on the 737 Max) that's hurting us across the board. What would really help Boeing is not shooting itself in the foot on the commercial side, in hopes of someone's corner-cutting bonus. The 1/20th larger US defense budget increase applied to a $20 billion Boing defense business is small potatoes in comparison.

    As for the Raytheon example, it's about a $30 billion company - about the same size as the US opioid market.

    How's this sound, using your same stimulus logic:

    "Have opioids made us a more prosperous nation? Ask the salesmen and workers at Perdue Pharma and the several S&P BlueChip companies that invest in pharma manufacturing."


    How we spend our money and how effectively it produces benefits for our citizens matter. We've been fed a line for decades that throwing money at bridges to nowhere, trickle down, and special tax breaks for the likes of Enron, real estate tycoons, and hedge fund billionaires are great for our economy. Years ago, Eisenhower warned us about the military/industrial spend. Since then we've left trillions of dollar of weapons in places less peaceful and now a greater threat than before. Right now we're being told that borrowing money for tax breaks for trickle down, maybe further draining the Social Security fund to boost spending, are good for us. With more and more of "us" slipping from the middle class along the way and fewer and fewer owning most of the nation's wealth.

    Maybe time for us to stop believing those hoping to line their pockets . . . um, "stimulate the economy" . . . have the best interests of us or the future in mind.
    It is obvious Pete,
    You will not participate in the future US manufacturing expansion. You may be wealthy enough to sit on the "sidelines", in the meantime....

    watch us grow.

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    I'll be delighted if you choose to produce something of lasting value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    I'll be delighted if you choose to produce something of lasting value.
    We are free people, We are Americans, we produce.

    good night.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    The US has the resources to invest in it's military, more so than all other countries combined.
    "Invest" in the military ? They are nothing but hired killers, you fool. That is no kind of "investment". At the most generoua, you could call it "overhead" but investment, no way in hell.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Looks like the recession police are out in force.

    Personally, I would like to see a slowdown so that I can purchase machinetools at a discount, but what I currently see is an acceleration in manufacturing.
    That you'd like to see a slowdown so you can purchase machinetools from companies that have failed, benefitting from somebodies misery, laying off people etc, about sums you up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    "Invest" in the military ? They are nothing but hired killers, you fool. That is no kind of "investment". At the most generoua, you could call it "overhead" but investment, no way in hell.
    Some people would rather have China or Russia be the #1 military power in the world.

    I'm not one of those people.

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    I am less concerned with the reduction of our military than the diminished role we are going to have in world affairs.
    Are you guys paying attention to the faltering SK/Jpn relationship?
    We are perhaps edging towards a diminished role in Korea.
    Ours will be supplanted by Russia.
    There seems to be a push towards a less cohesive Western Europe and with it less certain alignment towards the west.

    It’s a old story at this point- is the US going to have a say in world affairs?
    Everyone should realize, the larger your team the fewer arms you need to project power.
    How is our team doing...?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    I am less concerned with the reduction of our military than the diminished role we are going to have in world affairs.
    It would be a really good start if you had a military with some COMMON SENSE!!!

    Have any of you read the recently released papers/enquiry results on the naval debacles where warships got run down by stealth killer freighters?

    Try it. Great reading.

    Apparently those ships use TOUCH SCREENS to drive the ships. No wheel, no throttles, nope. Touch screens.

    And to add stupidity on top of idiocy, they don't even have a standard operating system or screen layout between different classes of vessels.

    FFS, you people DESERVE to lose military superiority if you're letting arrant idiocy like this become standard practice. God alone knows what else is there.....

    Probably all running on a 'custom' version of Windows 10 too.

    PDW

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    Quote Originally Posted by triumph406 View Post
    That you'd like to see a slowdown so you can purchase machinetools from companies that have failed, benefitting from somebodies misery, laying off people etc, about sums you up.
    I seldom purchase from failed shops, but more so by companies that are upgrading.

    That is what's called being smart.

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    Surprising, then again maybe not, that the only country and leader that seems to get any kind of respect from Trump is North Korea and Kim Jong-un. A few rockets and name calling seems to be enough to earn respect.

    "You're an idiot". "You're a bigger idiot". "I love you". "I love you more" pretty much covers it.

    54 Of The Funniest Memes And Reactions To Trump’s Meeting With Kim Jong-Un | Bored Panda

    Trump reaches out to Kim Jong Un and jokes with Putin about election meddling

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    I seldom purchase from failed shops,
    In other words losers

    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    but more so by companies that are upgrading.
    In others buying from winners like yourself.

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    Thanks Gordon for reminding us that The Left Can't Meme.


    I also really love how some people still believe that Putin's Evil Masterplan was to Make America Great Again, Rebuild its Economy to being #1 in the world, bring back domestic manufacturing, best stock market gains ever recorded, Rebuild the US military. Defend America's Borders from foreign invasion. Bring light to the Soviet era Communist Left in America and the evil they've been doing and that they have to be stopped before its too late, and destroy Obama's legacy, I mean, ISIS in the meantime.
    Well done Putin, well done, really showed them.

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    And the sky is falling too.....Chicken Little has to gripe about something to change the subject about how things now are so much better then the Obama disaster years.

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